Projections of Ebola outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use in Équateur, Democratic Republic of Congo, as of May 27, 2018.

As of May 27, 2018, 6 suspected, 13 probable and 35 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) had been reported in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. We used reported case counts and time series from prior outbreaks to estimate the total outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use. We modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process model that included reproduction numbers from past Ebola outbreaks and a particle filtering method to generate a probabilistic projection of the outbreak size and duration conditioned on its reported trajectory to date; modeled using high (62%), low (44%), and zero (0%) estimates of vaccination coverage (after deployment). Additionally, we used the time series for 18 prior Ebola outbreaks from 1976 to 2016 to parameterize the Thiel-Sen regression model predicting the outbreak size from the number of observed cases from April 4 to May 27. We used these techniques on probable and confirmed case counts with and without inclusion of suspected cases. Probabilistic projections were scored against the actual outbreak size of 54 EVD cases, using a log-likelihood score. With the stochastic model, using high, low, and zero estimates of vaccination coverage, the median outbreak sizes for probable and confirmed cases were 82 cases (95% prediction interval [PI]: 55, 156), 104 cases (95% PI: 58, 271), and 213 cases (95% PI: 64, 1450), respectively. With the Thiel-Sen regression model, the median outbreak size was estimated to be 65.0 probable and confirmed cases (95% PI: 48.8, 119.7). Among our three mathematical models, the stochastic model with suspected cases and high vaccine coverage predicted total outbreak sizes closest to the true outcome. Relatively simple mathematical models updated in real time may inform outbreak response teams with projections of total outbreak size and duration

Relapses in Patients Treated with High-Dose Biotin for Progressive Multiple Sclerosis

High-dose biotin (HDB) is a therapy used in non-active progressive multiple sclerosis (PMS). Several reports have suggested that HDB treatment may be associated with an increased risk of relapse. We aimed to determine whether HDB increases the risk of clinical relapse in PMS and describe the characteristics of the patients who experience it. We conducted a French, multicenter, retrospective study, comparing a group of PMS patients treated with HDB to a matched control group. Poisson regression was applied to model the specific statistical distribution of the annualized relapse rate (ARR). A propensity score (PS), based on the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW), was used to adjust for indication bias and included the following variables: gender, primary PMS or not, age, EDSS, time since the last relapse, and co-prescription of a DMT. Two thousand six hundred twenty-eight patients treated with HDB and 654 controls were analyzed with a follow-up of 17 ± 8 months. Among them, 148 validated relapses were observed in the group treated with biotin and 38 in the control group (p = 0.62). After adjustment based on the PS, the ARR was 0.044 ± 0.23 for the biotin-treated group and 0.028 ± 0.16 for the control group (p = 0.18). The more relapses there were before biotin, the higher the risk of relapse during treatment, independently from the use of HDB. While the number of relapses reported for patients with no previous inflammatory activity receiving biotin has gradually increased, the present retrospective study is adequately powered to exclude an elevated risk of relapse for patients with PMS treated with HDB.Observatoire Français de la Sclérose en Plaque

Subacute corticobasal syndrome following internal carotid endarterectomy

International audienc

HLA Alleles Associated with Delayed Progression to AIDS Contribute Strongly to the Initial CD8\u3ci\u3e+\u3c/i\u3e T Cell Response against HIV-1

Background Very little is known about the immunodominance patterns of HIV-1-specific T cell responses during primary HIV-1 infection and the reasons for human lymphocyte antigen (HLA) modulation of disease progression. Methods and Findings In a cohort of 104 individuals with primary HIV-1 infection, we demonstrate that a subset of CD8+ T cell epitopes within HIV-1 are consistently targeted early after infection, while other epitopes subsequently targeted through the same HLA class I alleles are rarely recognized. Certain HLA alleles consistently contributed more than others to the total virus-specific CD8+ T cell response during primary infection, and also reduced the absolute magnitude of responses restricted by other alleles if coexpressed in the same individual, consistent with immunodomination. Furthermore, individual HLA class I alleles that have been associated with slower HIV-1 disease progression contributed strongly to the total HIV-1-specific CD8+ T cell response during primary infection. Conclusions These data demonstrate consistent immunodominance patterns of HIV-1-specific CD8+ T cell responses during primary infection and provide a mechanistic explanation for the protective effect of specific HLA class I alleles on HIV-1 disease progression

La Métacholine (pharmacologie et utilisation en milieu hospitalier, mise au point d'une méthode de dosage par formation de pairs d'ions)

LYON1-BU Santé (693882101) / SudocSudocFranceF