Estimation of conditional laws given an extreme component

Let $(X,Y)$ be a bivariate random vector. The estimation of a probability of the form $P(Y\leq y \mid X >t)$ is challenging when $t$ is large, and a fruitful approach consists in studying, if it exists, the limiting conditional distribution of the random vector $(X,Y)$, suitably normalized, given that $X$ is large. There already exists a wide literature on bivariate models for which this limiting distribution exists. In this paper, a statistical analysis of this problem is done. Estimators of the limiting distribution (which is assumed to exist) and the normalizing functions are provided, as well as an estimator of the conditional quantile function when the conditioning event is extreme. Consistency of the estimators is proved and a functional central limit theorem for the estimator of the limiting distribution is obtained. The small sample behavior of the estimator of the conditional quantile function is illustrated through simulations.Comment: 32 pages, 5 figur

V2368 Oph: An eclipsing and double-lined spectroscopic binary used as a photometric comparison star for U Oph

The A-type star HR 6412 = V2368 Oph was used by several investigators as a photometric comparison star for the known eclipsing binary U Oph but was found to be variable by three independent groups, including us. By analysing series of new spectral and photometric observations and a critical compilation of available radial velocities, we were able to find the correct period of light and radial-velocity variations and demonstrate that the object is an eclipsing and double-lined spectroscopic binary moving in a highly eccentric orbit. We derived a linear ephemeris T min.I = HJD (2454294.67 +/- 0.01) + (38.32712 +/- 0.00004)d x E and estimated preliminary basic physical properties of the binary. The dereddened UBV magnitudes and effective temperatures of the primary and secondary, based on our light- and velocity-curve solutions, led to distance estimates that agree with the Hipparcos distance within the errors. We find that the mass ratio must be close to one, but the limited number and wavelength range of our current spectra does not allow a truly precise determination of the binary masses. Nevertheless, our results show convincingly that both binary components are evolved away from the main sequence, which makes this system astrophysically very important. There are only a few similarly evolved A-type stars among known eclipsing binaries. Future systematic observations and careful analyses can provide very stringent tests for the stellar evolutionary theory.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figs, in press 2011 A&

Supernova / Acceleration Probe: A Satellite Experiment to Study the Nature of the Dark Energy

The Supernova / Acceleration Probe (SNAP) is a proposed space-based experiment designed to study the dark energy and alternative explanations of the acceleration of the Universe's expansion by performing a series of complementary systematics-controlled measurements. We describe a self-consistent reference mission design for building a Type Ia supernova Hubble diagram and for performing a wide-area weak gravitational lensing study. A 2-m wide-field telescope feeds a focal plane consisting of a 0.7 square-degree imager tiled with equal areas of optical CCDs and near infrared sensors, and a high-efficiency low-resolution integral field spectrograph. The SNAP mission will obtain high-signal-to-noise calibrated light-curves and spectra for several thousand supernovae at redshifts between z=0.1 and 1.7. A wide-field survey covering one thousand square degrees resolves ~100 galaxies per square arcminute. If we assume we live in a cosmological-constant-dominated Universe, the matter density, dark energy density, and flatness of space can all be measured with SNAP supernova and weak-lensing measurements to a systematics-limited accuracy of 1%. For a flat universe, the density-to-pressure ratio of dark energy can be similarly measured to 5% for the present value w0 and ~0.1 for the time variation w'. The large survey area, depth, spatial resolution, time-sampling, and nine-band optical to NIR photometry will support additional independent and/or complementary dark-energy measurement approaches as well as a broad range of auxiliary science programs. (Abridged)Comment: 40 pages, 18 figures, submitted to PASP, http://snap.lbl.go

Direct Measurements of A_b and A_c using Vertex/Kaon Charge Tags at SLD

Exploiting the manipulation of the SLC electron-beam polarization, we present precise direct measurements of the parity violation parameters A_c and A_b in the Z boson - c quark and Z boson - b quark coupling. Quark/antiquark discrimination is accomplished via a unique algorithm that takes advantage of the precise SLD CCD vertex detector, employing the net charge of displaced vertices as well as the charge of kaons that emanate from those vertices. From the 1996-98 sample of 400,000 Z decays, produced with an average beam polarization of 73.4%, we find A_c = 0.673 +/- 0.029 (stat.) +/- 0.023 (syst.) and A_b = 0.919 +/- 0.018 (stat.) +/- 0.017 (syst.).Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures, 2 tables, to be submitted to Physical Review Letters; version 2 reflects changes suggested by the refere

Measurement of the branching ratios of the Z0 into heavy quarks

We measure the hadronic branching ratios of the Z0 boson into heavy quarks: Rb=Gamma(Z0->bb)/Gamma(Z0->hadrons) and Rc=Gamma(Z0->cc/Gamma(Z0->hadrons) using a multi-tag technique. The measurement was performed using about 400,000 hadronic Z0 events recorded in the SLD experiment at SLAC between 1996 and 1998. The small and stable SLC beam spot and the CCD-based vertex detector were used to reconstruct bottom and charm hadron decay vertices with high efficiency and purity, which enables us to measure most efficiencies from data. We obtain, Rb=0.21604 +- 0.00098(stat.) +- 0.00073(syst.) -+ 0.00012(Rc) and, Rc= 0.1744 +- 0.0031(stat.) +- 0.0020(syst.) -+ 0.0006(Rb)Comment: 37 pages, 8 figures, to be submitted to Phys. Rev. D version 2: changed title to ratios, used common D production fractions for Rb and Rc and corrected Zgamma interference. Identical to PRD submissio

Open science in archaeology

No abstract available

A Search for Jet Handedness in Hadronic Z0Z^0 Decays

We have searched for signatures of polarization in hadronic jets from $Z^0 \to q \bar{q}$ decays using the ``jet handedness'' method. The polar angle asymmetry induced by the high SLC electron-beam polarization was used to separate quark jets from antiquark jets, expected to be left- and right-polarized, respectively. We find no evidence for jet handedness in our global sample or in a sample of light quark jets and we set upper limits at the 95% C.L. of 0.063 and 0.099 respectively on the magnitude of the analyzing power of the method proposed by Efremov {\it et al.}Comment: Revtex, 8 pages, 2 figure