Managing Projects in an Uncertain and Volatile World: Engaging Stakeholders, and Building a Systemic View of Risk

As evidenced through both a historical and contemporary number of over-runs managing projects can be a risky business. Managers are faced with effectively working with a multitude of parties, dealing with a wealth of interlocking uncertainties and frequently undertaking these activities within a compressed timeframe. This paper describes a risk management process developed to assist managers facing such situations. The process explicitly engages a range of stakeholders using a group support system and causal mapping process and provides not only a comprehensive appreciation of the risks identified but also a greater understanding of their subtleties. Using a real case the paper will describe the process and outcomes along with its implications, before reflecting on the insights, limitations and future research

Learning from mixed OR method practice: The NINES case study

Despite continued interest in the use of mixed OR/MS methods, limited attention has been paid in the literature to generic lessons that could be gained from mixing methods . in practice. Many organisational problems demand the use of a mixed method approach and thus recognising and sharing lessons could prove beneficial to both practitioners and researchers. This paper reports on an in-depth evaluation of a case study involving risk identification and quantification of the Northern Isles New Energy Solutions (NINES) project which sought to trial and plan a new energy system. The intervention involved a mixed method approach and client feedback on the efficacy of the approach was sought. The evaluation reported in this paper is carried out using a set of themes taken from the literature and seeks to highlight transferable lessons. The set of lessons that emerge are presented along with their implications for both general OR modelling practice and the specific situation of mixing OR/MS methods. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of the work and directions for future work which will be of interest to both practitioners and researchers interested in mixed method OR/MS work

Rapid seasonal evolution in innate immunity of wild Drosophila melanogaster

Understanding the rate of evolutionary change and the genetic architecture that facilitates rapid adaptation is a current challenge in evolutionary biology. Comparative studies show that genes with immune function are among the most rapidly evolving genes across a range of taxa. Here, we use immune defence in natural populations of Drosophila melanogaster to understand the rate of evolution in natural populations and the genetics underlying rapid change. We probed the immune system using the natural pathogens Enterococcus faecalis and Providencia rettgeri to measure post-infection survival and bacterial load of wild D. melanogaster populations collected across seasonal time along a latitudinal transect along eastern North America (Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Virginia). There are pronounced and repeatable changes in the immune response over the approximately 10 generations between spring and autumn collections, with a significant but less distinct difference observed among geographical locations. Genes with known immune function are not enriched among alleles that cycle with seasonal time, but the immune function of a subset of seasonally cycling alleles in immune genes was tested using reconstructed outbred populations. We find that flies containing seasonal alleles in Thioester-containing protein 3 (Tep3) have different functional responses to infection and that epistatic interactions among seasonal Tep3 and Drosomycin-like 6 (Dro6) alleles underlie the immune phenotypes observed in natural populations. This rapid, cyclic response to seasonal environmental pressure broadens our understanding of the complex ecological and genetic interactions determining the evolution of immune defence in natural populations

Rapid overview of systematic reviews of nocebo effects reported by patients taking placebos in clinical trials

Background Trial participants in placebo groups report experiencing adverse events (AEs). Existing systematic reviews have not been synthesized, leaving questions about why these events occur as well as their prevalence across different conditions unanswered. Objectives (1) To synthesize the evidence of prevalence of AEs in trial placebo groups across different conditions. (2) To compare AEs in trial placebo groups with AEs reported in untreated groups within a subset of randomized trials. Search methods We searched PubMed for records with the word “nocebo” in the title and “systematic” in any field. We also contacted experts and hand-searched references of included studies. Study eligibility We included any systematic review of randomized trials where nocebo effects were reported. We excluded systematic reviews of non-randomized studies. Participants and interventions We included studies in any disease area. Study appraisal and synthesis methods We appraised the quality of the studies using a shortened version of the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews tool (AMSTAR) tool. We reported medians and interquartile ranges (IQRs) of AEs. Among the trials within the review that included untreated groups, we compared the prevalence of AEs in untreated groups with the prevalence of AEs in placebo groups. Results We identified 20 systematic reviews. These included 1271 randomized trials and 250,726 placebo-treated patients. The median prevalence of AEs in trial placebo groups was 49.1% (IQR 25.7–64.4%). The median rate of dropouts due to AEs was 5% (IQR 2.28–8.4%). Within the 15 of trials that reported AEs in untreated groups, we found that the AE rate in placebo groups (6.51%) was higher than that reported in untreated groups (4.25%). Limitations This study was limited by the quality of included reviews and the small number of trials that included untreated groups. Conclusions and implications of key findings AEs in trial placebo groups are common and cannot be attributed entirely to natural history. Trial methodologies that reduce AEs in placebo groups while satisfying the requirement of informed consent should be developed and implemented

Evidence based medicine as science

Evidence based medicine has claimed to be science on a number of occasions but it is not clear that this status is deserved. Within philosophy of science four main theories about the nature of science are historically recognised: inductivism, falsificationism, Kuhnian paradigms and research programmes. If evidence based medicine is science knowledge claims should be derived using a process that corresponds to one of these theories. This paper analyses whether this is the case. In the first section, different theories about the nature of science are introduced. In the second section, the claim that evidence based medicine is science is reinterpreted as the claim that knowledge claims derived from randomised controlled trails and meta-analyses are science. In the third section the knowledge claims valued within evidence based medicine are considered from the perspective of inductivism, falsificationism, Kuhnian paradigms and research programmes. In the final section possible counter arguments are considered. It is argued that the knowledge claims valued by evidence based medicine are not justified using inductivism, falsificationism, Kuhnian paradigms or research programmes. If these are the main criteria for evaluating if something is science or not, evidence based medicine does not meet these criteria

Improving Empathy in Healthcare Consultations-a Secondary Analysis of Interventions.

A recent systematic review of randomised trials suggested that empathic communication improves patient health outcomes. However, the methods for training healthcare practitioners (medical professionals; HCPs) in empathy and the empathic behaviours demonstrated within the trials were heterogeneous, making the evidence difficult to implement in routine clinical practice. In this secondary analysis of seven trials in the review, we aimed to identify (1) the methods used to train HCPs, (2) the empathy behaviours they were trained to perform and (3) behaviour change techniques (BCTs) used to encourage the adoption of those behaviours. This detailed understanding of interventions is necessary to inform implementation in clinical practice. We conducted a content analysis of intervention descriptions, using an inductive approach to identify training methods and empathy behaviours and a deductive approach to describe the BCTs used. The most commonly used methods to train HCPs to enhance empathy were face-to-face training (n = 5), role-playing (n = 3) and videos (self or model; n = 3). Duration of training was varied, with both long and short training having high effect sizes. The most frequently targeted empathy behaviours were providing explanations of treatment (n = 5), providing non-specific empathic responses (e.g. expressing understanding) and displaying a friendly manner and using non-verbal behaviours (e.g. nodding, leaning forward, n = 4). The BCT most used to encourage HCPs to adopt empathy behaviours was "Instruction on how to perform behaviour" (e.g. a video demonstration, n = 5), followed by "Credible source" (e.g. delivered by a psychologist, n = 4) and "Behavioural practice" (n = 3 e.g. role-playing). We compared the effect sizes of studies but could not extrapolate meaningful conclusions due to high levels of variation in training methods, empathy skills and BCTs. Moreover, the methods used to train HCPs were often poorly described which limits study replication and clinical implementation. This analysis of empathy training can inform future research, intervention reporting standards and clinical practice

Understanding the drivers of broadband adoption : the case of rural and remote Scotland

Broadband has been described as a transforming technology and is now widely available in many developed countries. However, broadband availability is not the same as broadband adoption. If the socio-economic benefits of broadband are to be realized, then adoption needs to be both understood and encouraged. This is particularly important in rural and remote areas. This paper explores the factors that drive broadband adoption in one particular rural and remote area; rural and remote Scotland. A causal model and a quantitative simulation model are developed indicating how the various drivers of adoption interact with one another. Both models show that past policy initiatives have impacted on the rate of adoption. However, the greatest impact could be achieved if future policy initiatives target those people who show no interest in adopting broadband. The paper concludes by suggesting that this work has implications for rural and remote areas all around the world

Mechanisms and Difference-Making

I argue that difference-making should be a crucial element for evaluating the quality of evidence for mechanisms, especially with respect to the robustness of mechanisms, and that it should take central stage when it comes to the general role played by mechanisms in establishing causal claims in medicine. The difference- making of mechanisms should provide additional compelling reasons to accept the gist of Russo-Williamson thesis and include mechanisms in the protocols for Evidence- Based Medicine (EBM), as the EBM+ research group has been advocatin

Talking in primary care (TIP): protocol for a cluster-randomised controlled trial in UK primary care to assess clinical and cost-effectiveness of communication skills e-learning for practitioners on patients' musculoskeletal pain and enablement.

INTRODUCTION: Effective communication can help optimise healthcare interactions and patient outcomes. However, few interventions have been tested clinically, subjected to cost-effectiveness analysis or are sufficiently brief and well-described for implementation in primary care. This paper presents the protocol for determining the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a rigorously developed brief eLearning tool, EMPathicO, among patients with and without musculoskeletal pain. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A cluster randomised controlled trial in general practitioner (GP) surgeries in England and Wales serving patients from diverse geographic, socioeconomic and ethnic backgrounds. GP surgeries are randomised (1:1) to receive EMPathicO e-learning immediately, or at trial end. Eligible practitioners (eg, GPs, physiotherapists and nurse practitioners) are involved in managing primary care patients with musculoskeletal pain. Patient recruitment is managed by practice staff and researchers. Target recruitment is 840 adults with and 840 without musculoskeletal pain consulting face-to-face, by telephone or video. Patients complete web-based questionnaires at preconsultation baseline, 1 week and 1, 3 and 6 months later. There are two patient-reported primary outcomes: pain intensity and patient enablement. Cost-effectiveness is considered from the National Health Service and societal perspectives. Secondary and process measures include practitioner patterns of use of EMPathicO, practitioner-reported self-efficacy and intentions, patient-reported symptom severity, quality of life, satisfaction, perceptions of practitioner empathy and optimism, treatment expectancies, anxiety, depression and continuity of care. Purposive subsamples of patients, practitioners and practice staff take part in up to two qualitative, semistructured interviews. ETHICS APPROVAL AND DISSEMINATION: Approved by the South Central Hampshire B Research Ethics Committee on 1 July 2022 and the Health Research Authority and Health and Care Research Wales on 6 July 2022 (REC reference 22/SC/0145; IRAS project ID 312208). Results will be disseminated via peer-reviewed academic publications, conference presentations and patient and practitioner outlets. If successful, EMPathicO could quickly be made available at a low cost to primary care practices across the country. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN18010240

'I'm sorry to hear that'-Empathy and Empathic Dissonance : the Perspectives of PA Students

Context: Our understanding of clinical empathy could be enhanced through qualitative research-research currently under-represented in the field. Physician associates within the UK undergo an intensive 2-year postgraduate medical education. As a new group of health professionals, they represent a fresh pair of eyes through which to examine clinical empathy, its nature and teaching. Methods: Working with a constructivist paradigm, utilising grounded theory methodology, researchers studied 19 purposively sampled physician associate students in two UK medical schools. One-to-one semi-structured interviews were transcribed verbatim. Data were analysed using a grounded theory approach. Results: The global themes were the pathways to empathy, empathy modifiers and empathic dissonance a novel term to describe the discomfort students experience when pressurised into making empathic statements they don't sincerely feel. Students preferred using non-verbal over verbal expressions of empathy. A conceptual model is proposed. The more substantial empathic pathway, affective empathy, involves input from the heart. An alternative empathy, more constrained, comes from the head: cognitive empathy was considered a solution to time pressure and emotional burden. Formal teaching establishes empathic dissonance, a problem which stems from over-reliance on the empathic statement as the means to deliver clinical empathy. Conclusions: This study furthers our understanding of the construct and teaching of empathy. It identifies empathic barriers, especially time pressure. It proposes a novel concept-empathic dissonance-a concept that challenges medical educationalists to reframe future empathy teaching