Actuarial Adjustments, Retirement Behaviour and Worker Heterogeneity

The behavioural response with respect to actuarial adjustments in the German public pension system is analysed. The introduction of actuarial adjustments serves as a source of exogenous variation to estimate discrete time transition rates into retirement. The analysis is conducted on administrative data from social security records and on survey data in a comparative scenario. Probability mass points that occur for institutional reasons and due to social norms are controlled for. Moreover, worker heterogeneity is taken into account, which has not been addressed in the previous literature. The results show that on average retirement is postponed by five months due to financial incentives via actuarial adjustments. However, this response is about 40 per cent lower for manual workers compared to non-manual workers which indicates that their retirement income may deteriorate.Die Studie untersucht die Verhaltensreaktion auf finanzielle Anreize hinsichtlich des Renteneintrittsalters. Die Einführung versicherungsmathematischer Abschläge dient als Quelle exogener Variation, um Renteneintrittsraten in diskreter Zeit zu schätzen. Die Analyse basiert auf Administrativdaten der Deutschen Rentenversicherung (VSKT) sowie Umfragedaten des Sozioökonomischen Panels (SOEP) um mögliche Unterschiede in den Ergebnissen aufgrund der Datenmenge und Datenqualität in einem komparativen Szenario zu kontrollieren. Ein besonderer Fokus in der Analyse des Renteneintrittsverhaltens liegt auf individueller Heterogenität hinsichtlich des physischen Anspruchs ehemals ausgeübter Berufe. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Einführung versicherungsmathematischer Abschläge in Deutschland zu einer durchschnittlichen Verzögerung des Renteneintritts um fünf Monate führt. Diese Reaktion auf finanzielle Anreize ist bei Individuen mit ehemals physisch anspruchsvollen Berufen jedoch etwa 40% niedriger

What factors influence training opportunities for older workers? Three factorial surveys exploring the attitudes of HR professionals

The core research questions addressed in this paper are: what factors influence HR professionals in deciding whether to approve training proposals for older workers? What kind of training are they more likely to recommend for older employees and in which organizational contexts? We administered three factorial surveys to 66 HR professionals in Italy. Participants made specific training decisions based on profiles of hypothetical older workers. Multilevel analyses indicated that access to training decreases strongly with age, while highly-skilled older employees with low absenteeism rates are more likely to enjoy training opportunities. In addition, older workers displaying positive performance are more likely to receive training than older workers who perform poorly, suggesting that training late in working life may serve as a reward for good performance rather than as a means of enhancing productivity. The older the HR professional evaluating training proposals, the higher the probability that older workers will be recommended for training. keywords: training; older workers; HR professionals; factorial survey; multilevel model

Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Role of Actuarial Reduction Rates in Individual Retirement Planning in Germany

This paper provides a two-part empirical analysis on how actuarial reduction rates for early retirement affect current pension payments in Germany and to what extent the existence and the magnitude of these reduction rates influence people s retirement planning. First, by evaluating a large dataset of administrative records it becomes evident that early retirement shows a high prevalence at the extensive and at the intensive margin, in particular for women and those with a medium income. Second, a special question in the 2011 SAVE survey is exploited where respondents are offered a hypothetical deal for early retirement if in turn they were willing to accept an actuarial reduction on their pension. It becomes evident that the maximum reduction rate people would be willing to accept is widely dispersed and on average approximately double the current legal rate. Furthermore, respondents seem to make consistent choices and high endowment of financial assets plus additional old age provision, high subjective life expectancy, bad health as well as being a man are positively correlated with the actuarial reduction rate the respondents would accept at most. Given that policymakers aim to raise the average retirement age, the results emphasize the need for a simultaneous increase of not only the statutory retirement age but the minimum early retirement age as well. This becomes necessary since actuarial reduction rates cannot be expected to change the retirement behavior of workers with a strong preference for early retirement or those who rely on social benefits

Demand of Long-Term Care and benefit eligibility across European countries

In the context of an unprecedented aging process, the role of domiciliary care for older adults is becoming increasingly essential. In order to design effective and proactive policies of formal elderly-care, it is crucial to understand how vulnerable elderly individuals would adjust their informal long-term care utilization to changes in the formal-care provision. Although theoretical frameworks have been proposed, showing that a positive relationship could arise when the elderly exhibit an excess demand of care, empirical evidence is scant, due to the lack of credible instruments to account for the endogenous nature of formal-care decisions. We propose a novel instrument, an index that capture individuals’ eligibility status to the LTC domiciliary programmes implemented in their own nation or region. That is, a dummy variable - being eligible or not - which is grounded on the LTC regulation context at national or regional level, but still has individual within region variation due to differences in health conditions and vulnerability assessment. We estimate an IV two-part model using a representative sample of the over 60 population for non-institutionalised individuals in Austria, Germany, France and Belgium. Our results, which are robust to a number of different specifications, point at the lack of crowding-out of the informalby the formal-care, thus suggesting the existence of a substantial unmet demand of LTC among the elderly

The Effect of Partial Retirement on Labor Supply, Public Balances and the Income Distribution: Evidence from a Structural Analysis

This paper develops a structural dynamic retirement model to investigate effects and corresponding underlying mechanisms of a partial retirement program on labor supply, fiscal balances, and the pension income distribution. The structural approach allows for disentangling the two counteracting mechanisms that drive the employment effects of partial retirement: 1) the crowding-out from full-time employment, and 2) the movement from early retirement or unemployment to partial retirement. It also allows for investigating the role of financial compensations in a partial retirement program. Based on a unique German administrative dataset, I perform counterfactual policy simulations that analyze the role of partial retirement combined with financial subsidies and an increased normal retirement age. The results show that partial retirement extends working lives but reduces the overall employment volume. The fiscal consequences of partial retirement are negative but substantially less so when wages and pensions in partial retirement remain uncompensated. Partial retirement decreases inequality in pension income and provides a way to smooth consumption especially for retirees in lower income deciles in the context of an increased normal retirement age

Estimating the Cost of Executive Stock Options: Evidence from Switzerland

It is often argued that Black-Scholes (1973) values overstate the subjective NEWLINE value of stock options granted to risk-averse and under-diversified executives. NEWLINE We construct a “representative” Swiss executive and extend the certainty- NEWLINE equivalence approach presented by Hall and Murphy (2002) to assess NEWLINE the value-cost wedge of executive stock options. Even with low coefficients NEWLINE of relative risk aversion, the discount can be above 50% compared to the NEWLINE Black-Scholes values. Regression analysis reveals that the equilibrium level NEWLINE of executive compensation is explained by economic determinant variables NEWLINE such as firm size and growth opportunities, whereas the managers’ pay-forperformance NEWLINE sensitivity remains largely unexplained. Firms with larger NEWLINE boards of directors pay higher wages, indicating potentially unresolved NEWLINE agency conflicts. We reject the hypothesis that cross-sectional differences in NEWLINE the amount of executive pay vanish when risk-adjusted values are used as NEWLINE the dependent variable

Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex genetic diversity: mining the fourth international spoligotyping database (SpolDB4) for classification, population genetics and epidemiology

BACKGROUND: The Direct Repeat locus of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC) is a member of the CRISPR (Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) sequences family. Spoligotyping is the widely used PCR-based reverse-hybridization blotting technique that assays the genetic diversity of this locus and is useful both for clinical laboratory, molecular epidemiology, evolutionary and population genetics. It is easy, robust, cheap, and produces highly diverse portable numerical results, as the result of the combination of (1) Unique Events Polymorphism (UEP) (2) Insertion-Sequence-mediated genetic recombination. Genetic convergence, although rare, was also previously demonstrated. Three previous international spoligotype databases had partly revealed the global and local geographical structures of MTC bacilli populations, however, there was a need for the release of a new, more representative and extended, international spoligotyping database. RESULTS: The fourth international spoligotyping database, SpolDB4, describes 1939 shared-types (STs) representative of a total of 39,295 strains from 122 countries, which are tentatively classified into 62 clades/lineages using a mixed expert-based and bioinformatical approach. The SpolDB4 update adds 26 new potentially phylogeographically-specific MTC genotype families. It provides a clearer picture of the current MTC genomes diversity as well as on the relationships between the genetic attributes investigated (spoligotypes) and the infra-species classification and evolutionary history of the species. Indeed, an independent Naïve-Bayes mixture-model analysis has validated main of the previous supervised SpolDB3 classification results, confirming the usefulness of both supervised and unsupervised models as an approach to understand MTC population structure. Updated results on the epidemiological status of spoligotypes, as well as genetic prevalence maps on six main lineages are also shown. Our results suggests the existence of fine geographical genetic clines within MTC populations, that could mirror the passed and present Homo sapiens sapiens demographical and mycobacterial co-evolutionary history whose structure could be further reconstructed and modelled, thereby providing a large-scale conceptual framework of the global TB Epidemiologic Network. CONCLUSION: Our results broaden the knowledge of the global phylogeography of the MTC complex. SpolDB4 should be a very useful tool to better define the identity of a given MTC clinical isolate, and to better analyze the links between its current spreading and previous evolutionary history. The building and mining of extended MTC polymorphic genetic databases is in progress

The Impact of Cohort Size and Local Labor Market Conditions on Human Capital Accumulation in Europe

Recent studies emphasize the impact of macroeconomic factors on educational attainment. They show that although individual factors like the educational level of one's parents play a decisive role in determining the human capital accumulation of the children, the cohort size as well as the local labor market seem to have a significant impact, too. This paper analyzes the impact of birth cohort size as well as unemployment on educational attainment in Europe using the European Community Household Panel. Estimation results suggest that neither the size of the birth cohort nor the local unemployment rate induces a change in the individual's schooling decision