Future role of the District Health Authority: assessing needs for services and setting priorities

The purchaser/provider split within the NHS has highlighted the role of District Health Authorities (DHAs) in assessing health needs and buying services to meet those needs. This requires a consideration of what is meant by “need” and how it relates to a system of priorities for health care provision. In the long-term it is to be hoped that DHAs have at their disposal cost-effectiveness information relating to a wide range of interventions, enabling them to make priority decisions. In the short-term, however, a less ambitious aim is to ask what information is currently available which could inform the purchasing role. In areas where data are clearly deficient, this could involve assessing the potential usefulness of available information, assuming that the underlying data could be improved. The starting point for the project upon which this paper is based was therefore to establish the baseline characteristics of participating DHAs’ resident populations, using data already available nationally and locally, supplemented by local survey work where applicable. The aim was to evaluate existing data sources, examining their usefulness in assessing health needs and in making the link from needs to service provision. There is of course no magical formula which translates the identification of needs into what health care services should be provided. Nevertheless this is exactly the challenge faced by those who will be involved in the contractual process.District Health Authority

Prediction of liver disease in patients whose liver function tests have been checked in primary care : model development and validation using population-based observational cohorts

This work was supported by the UK National Health Service Research & Development Programme Health Technology Assessment Programme (project number 03/38/02) and also by the Backett Weir Russell Career Development Fellowship, University of Aberdeen.OBJECTIVE: To derive and validate a clinical prediction model to estimate the risk of liver disease diagnosis following liver function tests (LFTs) and to convert the model to a simplified scoring tool for use in primary care. DESIGN: Population-based observational cohort study of patients in Tayside Scotland identified as having their LFTs performed in primary care and followed for 2 years. Biochemistry data were linked to secondary care, prescriptions and mortality data to ascertain baseline characteristics of the derivation cohort. A separate validation cohort was obtained from 19 general practices across the rest of Scotland to externally validate the final model. SETTING: Primary care, Tayside, Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: Derivation cohort: LFT results from 310 511 patients. After exclusions (including: patients under 16 years, patients having initial LFTs measured in secondary care, bilirubin >35 μmol/L, liver complications within 6 weeks and history of a liver condition), the derivation cohort contained 95 977 patients with no clinically apparent liver condition. Validation cohort: after exclusions, this cohort contained 11 653 patients. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Diagnosis of a liver condition within 2 years. RESULTS: From the derivation cohort (n=95 977), 481 (0.5%) were diagnosed with a liver disease. The model showed good discrimination (C-statistic=0.78). Given the low prevalence of liver disease, the negative predictive values were high. Positive predictive values were low but rose to 20-30% for high-risk patients. CONCLUSIONS: This study successfully developed and validated a clinical prediction model and subsequent scoring tool, the Algorithm for Liver Function Investigations (ALFI), which can predict liver disease risk in patients with no clinically obvious liver disease who had their initial LFTs taken in primary care. ALFI can help general practitioners focus referral on a small subset of patients with higher predicted risk while continuing to address modifiable liver disease risk factors in those at lower risk.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Lenalidomide for the Treatment of Low- or Intermediate-1-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes Associated with Deletion 5q Cytogenetic Abnormality: An Evidence Review of the NICE Submission from Celgene

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer of lenalidomide (Celgene) to submit evidence of the clinical and cost effectiveness of the drug for treating adults with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) associated with deletion 5q cytogenetic abnormality, as part of the Institute’s single technology appraisal (STA) process. Kleijnen Systematic Reviews Ltd (KSR), in collaboration with Erasmus University Rotterdam, was commissioned to act as the Evidence Review Group (ERG). This paper describes the company’s submission, the ERG review, and the NICE’s subsequent decisions. The ERG reviewed the evidence for clinical and cost effectiveness of the technology, as submitted by the manufacturer to the NICE. The ERG searched for relevant additional evidence and validated the manufacturer’s decision analytic model to examine the robustness of the cost-effectiveness results. Clinical effectiveness was obtained from a three-arm, European, randomized, phase III trial among red blood cell (RBC) transfusion-dependent patients with low-/intermediate-1-risk del5q31 MDS. The primary endpoint was RBC independence for ≥26 weeks, and was reached by a higher proportion of patients in the lenalidomide 10 and 5 mg groups compared with placebo (56.1 and 42.6 vs 5.9 %, respectively; both p < 0.001). The option of dose adjustments after 16 weeks due to dose-limiting toxicities or lack of response made long-term effectiveness estimates unreliable, e.g. overall survival (OS). The de novo model of the manufacturer included a Markov state-transition cost-utility model implemented in Microsoft Excel. The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the manufacturer was £56,965. The ERG assessment indicated that the modeling structure represented the course of the disease; however, a few errors were identified and some of the input parameters were challenged. In response to the appraisal documentation, the company revised the economic model, which increased the ICER to £68,125 per quality-adjusted life-year. The NICE Appraisal Committee (AC) did not recommend lenalidomide as a cost-effective treatment. Subsequently, the manufacturer submitted a Patient Access Scheme (PAS) that provided lenalidomide free of charge for patients who remained on treatment after 26 cycles. This PAS improved the ICER to £25,300, although the AC considered the proportion of patients who received treatment beyond 26 cycles, and hence the ICER, to be uncertain. Nevertheless, the AC accepted a commitment from the manufacturer to publish, once available, data on the proport

Cannabinoids for Medical Use A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Importance Cannabis and cannabinoid drugs are widely used to treat disease or alleviate symptoms, but their efficacy for specific indications is not clear. Objective To conduct a systematic review of the benefits and adverse events (AEs) of cannabinoids. Data Sources Twenty-eight databases from inception to April 2015. Study Selection Randomized clinical trials of cannabinoids for the following indications: nausea and vomiting due to chemotherapy, appetite stimulation in HIV/AIDS, chronic pain, spasticity due to multiple sclerosis or paraplegia, depression, anxiety disorder, sleep disorder, psychosis, glaucoma, or Tourette syndrome. Data Extraction and Synthesis Study quality was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. All review stages were conducted independently by 2 reviewers. Where possible, data were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures Patient-relevant/disease-specific outcomes, activities of daily living, quality of life, global impression of change, and AEs. Results A total of 79 trials (6462 participants) were included; 4 were judged at low risk of bias. Most trials showed improvement in symptoms associated with cannabinoids but these associations did not reach statistical significance in all trials. Compared with placebo, cannabinoids were associated with a greater average number of patients showing a complete nausea and vomiting response (47% vs 20%; odds ratio [OR], 3.82 [95% CI, 1.55-9.42]; 3 trials), reduction in pain (37% vs 31%; OR, 1.41 [95% CI, 0.99-2.00]; 8 trials), a greater average reduction in numerical rating scale pain assessment (on a 0-10-point scale; weighted mean difference [WMD], −0.46 [95% CI, −0.80 to −0.11]; 6 trials), and average reduction in the Ashworth spasticity scale (WMD, −0.36 [95% CI, −0.69 to −0.05]; 7 trials). There was an increased risk of short-term AEs with cannabinoids, including serious AEs. Common AEs included dizziness, dry mouth, nausea, fatigue, somnolence, euphoria, vomiting, disorientation, drowsiness, confusion, loss of balance, and hallucination. Conclusions and Relevance There was moderate-quality evidence to support the use of cannabinoids for the treatment of chronic pain and spasticity. There was low-quality evidence suggesting that cannabinoids were associated with improvements in nausea and vomiting due to chemotherapy, weight gain in HIV infection, sleep disorders, and Tourette syndrome. Cannabinoids were associated with an increased risk of short-term AEs.This funded by the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) under grant agreement 14.001443/204.0001/-1257Revisión por pare

Pralsetinib for RET Fusion-Positive Advanced Non-small-Cell Lung Cancer:An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer (Roche) of pralsetinib (Gavreto®), as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process, to submit evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost effectiveness of pralsetinib for the treatment of adult patients with rearranged during transfection (RET) fusion-positive advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) not previously treated with a RET inhibitor. Kleijnen Systematic Reviews Ltd, in collaboration with University Medical Center Groningen, was commissioned to act as the independent Evidence Review Group (ERG). This paper summarizes the company submission (CS), presents the ERG’s critical review of the clinical and cost-effectiveness evidence in the CS, highlights the key methodological considerations, and describes the development of the NICE guidance by the Appraisal Committee. The CS reported data from the ARROW trial. ARROW is a single-arm, multicenter, non-randomized, open-label, multi-cohort study in patients with RET fusion-positive NSCLC and other advanced solid tumors. The CS included both untreated and pre-treated RET fusion-positive NSCLC patients, among other disease types. The comparators in the untreated population were pembrolizumab + pemetrexed + chemotherapy and pembrolizumab monotherapy. The comparators for the pre-treated population were docetaxel monotherapy, docetaxel + nintedanib, and platinum-based chemotherapy ± pemetrexed. As no comparators were included in ARROW, an indirect treatment comparison was conducted to estimate relative effectiveness. The ERG’s concerns included the immaturity of data, small sample size, and lack of comparative safety evidence. The ERG considers the clinical evidence presented to be insufficiently robust to inform the economic model. Even when all the ERG preferred assumptions were implemented in the model, uncertainty remained on a number of issues, such as the appropriateness of the hazard ratios and the methods and data used to derive them, long-term efficacy of pralsetinib, and direct evidence for health-related quality of life (HRQoL). NICE did not recommend pralsetinib within its marketing authorization for treating RET fusion-positive advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in adults who have not had a RET inhibitor before. The uncertainty of the clinical evidence and the estimates of cost effectiveness were too high to be considered a cost-effective use of NHS resources. Therefore, pralsetinib was not recommended for routine use.</p

Integrated sensor-augmented pump therapy systems [the MiniMed® Paradigm™ Veo system and the Vibe™ and G4® PLATINUM CGM (continuous glucose monitoring) system] for managing blood glucose levels in type 1 diabetes: A systematic review and economic evaluation

Background: In recent years, meters for continuous monitoring of interstitial fluid glucose have been introduced to help people with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) to achieve better control of their disease. Objective: The objective of this project was to summarise the evidence on the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the MiniMed® Paradigm™ Veo system (Medtronic Inc., Northridge, CA, USA) and the Vibe™ (Animas® Corporation, West Chester, PA, USA) and G4® PLATINUM CGM (continuous glucose monitoring) system (Dexcom Inc., San Diego, CA, USA) in comparison with multiple daily insulin injections (MDIs) or continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII), both with either self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) or CGM, for the management of T1DM in adults and children. Data sources: A systematic review was conducted in accordance with the principles of the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination guidance and the National Institute for He

SeHCAT [tauroselcholic (selenium-75) acid] for the investigation of bile acid malabsorption and measurement of bile acid pool loss

Background The principal diagnosis/indication for this assessment is chronic diarrhoea due to bile acid malabsorption (BAM). Diarrhoea can be defined as the abnormal passage of loose or liquid stools more than three times daily and/or a daily stool weight > 200 g per day and is considered to be chronic if it persists for more than 4 weeks. The cause of chronic diarrhoea in adults is often difficult to ascertain and patients may undergo several investigations without a definitive cause being identified. BAM is one of several causes of chronic diarrhoea and results from failure to absorb bile acids (which are required for the absorption of dietary fats and sterols in the intestine) in the distal ileum. Objective For people with chronic diarrhoea with unknown cause and in people with Crohn's disease and chronic diarrhoea with unknown cause (i.e. before resection): (1) What are the effects of selenium-75-homocholic acid taurine (SeHCAT) compared with no SeHCAT in terms of chronic diarrhoea, other health outcomes and costs? (2) What are the effects of bile acid sequestrants (BASs) compared with no BASs in people with a positive or negative SeHCAT test? (3) Does a positive or negative SeHCAT test predict improvement in terms of chronic diarrhoea, other health outcomes and costs? Data sources A systematic review was conducted to summarise the evidence on the clinical effectiveness of SeHCAT for the assessment of BAM and the measurement of bile acid pool loss. Search strategies were based on target condition and intervention, as recommended in the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (CRD) guidance for undertaking reviews in health care and the Cochrane Handbook for Diagnostic Test Accuracy Reviews. The following databases were searched up to April 2012: MEDLINE; MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations; EMBASE; the Cochrane Databases; Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects; Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Database; and Science Citation Index. Research registers and conference proceedings were also searched. Review methods Systematic review methods followed the principle

VAST: An ASKAP Survey for Variables and Slow Transients

The Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) will give us an unprecedented opportunity to investigate the transient sky at radio wavelengths. In this paper we present VAST, an ASKAP survey for Variables and Slow Transients. VAST will exploit the wide-field survey capabilities of ASKAP to enable the discovery and investigation of variable and transient phenomena from the local to the cosmological, including flare stars, intermittent pulsars, X-ray binaries, magnetars, extreme scattering events, interstellar scintillation, radio supernovae and orphan afterglows of gamma ray bursts. In addition, it will allow us to probe unexplored regions of parameter space where new classes of transient sources may be detected. In this paper we review the known radio transient and variable populations and the current results from blind radio surveys. We outline a comprehensive program based on a multi-tiered survey strategy to characterise the radio transient sky through detection and monitoring of transient and variable sources on the ASKAP imaging timescales of five seconds and greater. We also present an analysis of the expected source populations that we will be able to detect with VAST.Comment: 29 pages, 8 figures. Submitted for publication in Pub. Astron. Soc. Australi

Risk estimation of distant metastasis in node-negative, estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer patients using an RT-PCR based prognostic expression signature

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Given the large number of genes purported to be prognostic for breast cancer, it would be optimal if the genes identified are not confounded by the continuously changing systemic therapies. The aim of this study was to discover and validate a breast cancer prognostic expression signature for distant metastasis in untreated, early stage, lymph node-negative (N-) estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) patients with extensive follow-up times.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>197 genes previously associated with metastasis and ER status were profiled from 142 untreated breast cancer subjects. A "metastasis score" (MS) representing fourteen differentially expressed genes was developed and evaluated for its association with distant-metastasis-free survival (DMFS). Categorical risk classification was established from the continuous MS and further evaluated on an independent set of 279 untreated subjects. A third set of 45 subjects was tested to determine the prognostic performance of the MS in tamoxifen-treated women.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A 14-gene signature was found to be significantly associated (p < 0.05) with distant metastasis in a training set and subsequently in an independent validation set. In the validation set, the hazard ratios (HR) of the high risk compared to low risk groups were 4.02 (95% CI 1.91–8.44) for the endpoint of DMFS and 1.97 (95% CI 1.28 to 3.04) for overall survival after adjustment for age, tumor size and grade. The low and high MS risk groups had 10-year estimates (95% CI) of 96% (90–99%) and 72% (64–78%) respectively, for DMFS and 91% (84–95%) and 68% (61–75%), respectively for overall survival. Performance characteristics of the signature in the two sets were similar. Ki-67 labeling index (LI) was predictive for recurrent disease in the training set, but lost significance after adjustment for the expression signature. In a study of tamoxifen-treated patients, the HR for DMFS in high compared to low risk groups was 3.61 (95% CI 0.86–15.14).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The 14-gene signature is significantly associated with risk of distant metastasis. The signature has a predominance of proliferation genes which have prognostic significance above that of Ki-67 LI and may aid in prioritizing future mechanistic studies and therapeutic interventions.</p