Lee Carter mortality forecasting: application to the Italian population

In this paper we investigate the feasibility of using the Lee-Carter methodology to construct mortality forecasts for the Italian population. We fit the model to the matrix of Italian death rates for each gender from 1950 to 2000. A time-varying index of mortality is forecasted in an ARIMA framework and is used to generate projected life tables. In particular we focus on life expectancies at birth and, for the purpose of comparison, we introduce an alternative approach for forecasting life expectancies on a period basis. The resulting forecasts generated by the two methods are then compared

On the use of Structural Equation Models and PLS Path Modeling to build composite indicators

Nowadays there is a pre-eminent need to measure very complex phenomena like poverty, progress, well-being, etc. As is well known, the main feature of a composite indicator is that it summarizes complex and multidimensional issues. Thanks to its features, Structural Equation Modeling seems to be a useful tool for building systems of composite indicators. Among the several methods that have been developed to estimate Structural Equation Models we focus on the PLS Path Modeling approach (PLS-PM), because of the key role that estimation of the latent variables (i.e. the composite indicators) plays in the estimation process. In this work, first we present Structural Equation Models and PLS-PM. Then we provide a suite of statistical methodologies for handling categorical indicators in PLS-PM. In particular, in order to take categorical indicators into account, we propose to use a modified version of the PLS-PM algorithm recently presented by Russolillo [2009]. This new approach provides a quantification of the categorical indicators in such a way that the weight of each quantified indicator is coherent with the explicative ability of the corresponding categorical indicator. To conclude, an application involving data taken from a paper by Russet [1964] will be presented.PLS Path Modeling,Categorical Indicators,Structural Equation Modeling,Composite Indicators

Coherent modeling of mortality patterns for age-specific subgroups

The recent actuarial literature has shown that mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are similar in some respects and that small differences are unlikely to increase in the long run. The common feeling is that mortality forecasts for individual countries could be improved by taking into account the patterns from a larger group. Starting from this consideration, we apply the three-way Lee–Carter model to a group of countries, by extending the bilinear LC model to a three-way structure, which incorporates a further component in the decomposition of the log-mortality rates. From a methodological point of view, there are several issues to deal with when focusing on such kind of data. In the presence of a three-way data structure, several choices on the pretreatment of the data could affect the whole modeling process. This kind of analysis is useful to assess the source of variation in the raw mortality data, before the extraction of the rank-one components by the LC model. The proposed procedure is used to extract an ad hoc time mortality trend parameter for age-specific subgroups. The results show that the proposed strategy leads to a more coherent description of mortality for age-specific subgroups

The mortality of the Italian population: Smoothing techniques on the Lee--Carter model

Several approaches have been developed for forecasting mortality using the stochastic model. In particular, the Lee-Carter model has become widely used and there have been various extensions and modifications proposed to attain a broader interpretation and to capture the main features of the dynamics of the mortality intensity. Hyndman-Ullah show a particular version of the Lee-Carter methodology, the so-called Functional Demographic Model, which is one of the most accurate approaches as regards some mortality data, particularly for longer forecast horizons where the benefit of a damped trend forecast is greater. The paper objective is properly to single out the most suitable model between the basic Lee-Carter and the Functional Demographic Model to the Italian mortality data. A comparative assessment is made and the empirical results are presented using a range of graphical analyses.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS394 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Partial Least Squares Methods for Non-Metric Data

Partial Least Squares (PLS) methods embrace a suite of data analysis techniques based on algorithms belonging to PLS family. These algorithms consist in various extensions of the Nonlinear estimation by Iterative PArtial Least Squares (NIPALS) algorithm, which was proposed by Herman Wold as an alternative algorithm for implementing a Principal Component Analysis. The peculiarity of this algorithm is that it calculates principal components by means of an iterative sequence of simple ordinary least squares regressions. This feature allows overcoming computational problems due to missing data or landscape data matrices, i.e. matrix having more columns than rows. PLS methods were born to handle data sets forming metric spaces. This involves that all the variables embedded in the analysis are observed on interval or ratio scales. In this work we evidenced how NIPALS based algorithms, properly adjusted, can work as optimal scaling algorithms. This new feature of PLS, which had been until now totally unexplored, allowed us to device a new suite of PLS methods: the Non-Metric PLS (NM-PLS) methods. NM-PLS methods can be used with different aims: - to analyze at the same time variables observed on different measurement scales; - to investigate non linearity; - to discard the hard assumption of linearity in favor of a milder assumption of monotonicity. In particular, these methods generalize standard NIPALS, PLS Regression and PLS Path Modeling in such a way to handle variables observed on a variety of measurement scales, as well as to cope with non linearity problems. Three new algorithms are been proposed to implement NM-PLS methods: the Non-Metric NIPALS algorithm, the Non-Metric PLS Regression algorithm, and the Non-Metric PLS Path Modeling algorithm. All these algorithms provide at the same time specific PLS model parameters as well as scaling values for variables to be scaled. Scaling values provided by these algorithms are been proved to be optimal, in the sense that they optimize the same criterion of the model in which they are involved. Moreover, they are suitable, since they respect the constraints depending on which among the properties of the original measurement scale we want to preserve

Leading Student-Athletes to Success Beyond the Field: Assessing the Role of Leadership in Adopting High Impact Practices in Intercollegiate Athletics

Given the current culture and climate on college campuses, it is imperative that all students have the opportunity to participate in deep learning experiences, impacting their time on campus and preparing them for their impending transition into the workforce. While high impact practices (HIPs) are readily available, and encouraged, to the majority of the student population, it can be difficult for student-athletes to partake in such endeavors. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the role that leadership plays in the integration (or lack thereof) of HIPs into the student-athlete development process. Through semi-structured, phenomenological interviews with 21 staff members (administration, coaching, academics) of a mid-major Division I intercollegiate athletic program, the researchers were able to further understand the impact of leadership on HIPs in intercollegiate athletics. With this, three primary themes, with multiple sub-themes, emerged. These include Resources, Messaging, and Relationships. While there was a mix of positive and negative aspects of each theme, the general idea was that without a university directive, or a transformational leader, this type of pursuit would not be an overarching priority. Both theoretical and practical implications, as well as recommendations, are discussed

Detecting Common Longevity Trends by a Multiple Population Approach

Recently the interest in the development of country and longevity risk models has been growing. The investigation of long-run equilibrium relationships could provide valuable information about the factors driving changes in mortality, in particular across ages and across countries. In order to investigate cross-country common longevity trends, tools to quantify, compare, and model the strength of dependence become essential. On one hand, it is necessary to take into account either the dependence for adjacent age groups or the dependence structure across time in a single population setting-a sort of intradependence structure. On the other hand, the dependence across multiple populations, which we describe as interdependence, can be explored for capturing common long-run relationships between countries. The objective of our work is to produce longevity projections by taking into account the presence of various forms of cross-sectional and temporal dependencies in the error processes of multiple populations, considering mortality data from different countries. The algorithm that we propose combines model-based predictions in the Lee-Carter (LC) framework with a bootstrap procedure for dependent data, and so both the historical parametric structure and the intragroup error correlation structure are preserved. We introduce a model which applies a sieve bootstrap to the residuals of the LC model and is able to reproduce, in the sampling, the dependence structure of the data under consideration. In the current article, the algorithm that we build is applied to a pool of populations by using ideas from panel data; we refer to this new algorithm as the Multiple Lee-Carter Panel Sieve (MLCPS). We are interested in estimating the relationship between populations of similar socioeconomic conditions. The empirical results show that the MLCPS approach works well in the presence of dependence