Predicting uncertainty and risk in the natural sciences: bridging the gap between academics and industry

The increase in large-scale disasters in recent years, such as the 2007 floods in the UK, has caused disruptions of livelihood, enormous economic losses and increase in fatalities. Losses from natural hazards are only partially derived from the physical event itself but are also caused by society’s vulnerability to it. In the first three months of 2010, an unprecedented US$16 billion in losses occurred from natural hazards caused by events such as the Haiti and Chilean earthquakes, and the European storm Xynthia. This made it the worst ever first quarter for natural hazard losses and left the insurance industry exposed financially to the more loss-prone third and forth quarters. NERC science has a central role to play in the forecasting and mitigation of natural hazards. Research in this area forms the basis for technological solutions to early warning systems, designing mitigation strategies and providing critical information for decision makers to help save lives and avoid economic losses. Understanding uncertainty is essential if reliable forecasting and risk assessments are to be made. However, the quantification and assessment of uncertainty in natural hazards has in general been limited particularly in terms of model limitations and multiplicity. There are several reasons for this; most notably the fragmented nature of natural hazard research which is split both across science areas and between research, risk management and policy. Because of this, each sector has developed its own concepts and language which has acted as a barrier for effective communication and prevented the production of generic methods that have the potential to be used across sectors. It is clear therefore that by bringing the natural hazard community together significant breakthroughs in the visualisation and understanding of risk and uncertainty could be achieved. To accomplish this, this research programme has 4 prime objectives: 1.To improve communication and networking between researchers and risk managers within the financial services sector 2.To provide a platform for the dissemination of information on uncertainty and risk analysis between a range of researchers and practitioners 3.To generate a portfolio of best practice in uncertainty and risk analysis 4.To act as a focal point between the financial sector and natural hazard research in NERC This paper will discuss how the Natural Environmental Research Council, in partnership with other organisations such as TSB, EA and EPSRC etc, is working with academics and industry to bring about a step change in the way that uncertainty and risk assessments are achieved throughout the natural hazard community

An illustrative ‘plug & play’ catastrophe model for groundwater flooding

Economic losses from natural catastrophes are substantial; e.g., US$130 billion in 2010. ‘Catastrophe models’ are stochastic event-set based models that simulate these risks and underpin their assessment in the insurance industry. Most catastrophe models are proprietary ’black boxes’, which limit the level of user interaction, but new regulations (Solvency II) require firms to understand better the assumptions upon which the calculations ultimately rest. Part of this greater transparency requires constraining where uncertainty originates, perhaps by interchanging components provided by rival model vendors in ’plug and play’ catastrophe models. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate a practical, accessible way in which this may be made possible. Specifically to do this the first, illustrative ‘plug and play’ model was created efficiently and effectively using OpenMI, a free ‘open-source’ model linking standard. In about 100 man-hours climate, groundwater flow, vulnerability, exposure and loss components were linked to output financial losses, i.e. occurrence exceedance probability (OEP) curves. Groundwater flooding near Marlborough (UK) is used for this proof of concept. Losses from this example dataset are small, about £.8 million for a 33 yr OEP, but groundwater is an important compounding factor in UK flooding and this is the first, albeit rudimentary, attempt to probabilistically model loss for this hazard. Selected components are swopped, and losses calculated to show how insights into the origin of uncertainty can be gained. Crucially, OpenMI has the future potential to operate online and shield valuable data within components whilst allowing them to be swopped. So, it has the potential to underpin a secure, open-source, practical framework of use to the insurance industry

The effect of total arterial grafting on medium-term outcomes following coronary artery bypass grafting

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>While it is believed that total arterial grafting (TAG) for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) confers improved long-term outcomes when compared to conventional grafting with left internal mammary artery and saphenous vein grafts (LIMA+SVG), to date, this has not become the standard of care. In this study, we assessed the impact of TAG on medium-term outcomes after CABG.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Peri-operative data was prospectively collected on consecutive first-time, isolated CABG patients between 1995 and 2005. Patients were divided into two groups based on grafting strategy: TAG (all arterial grafts no saphenous veins) or LIMA+SVG. Patients who had an emergent status or underwent fewer than two distal bypasses were excluded. Medium term univariate and risk-adjusted comparisons between TAG and LIMA+SVG cases were performed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 4696 CABG patients were included with 1019 patients undergoing TAG (22%). Unadjusted in-hospital mortality was 1.5% for TAG patients compared to 2.0% for LIMA+SVG (p = 0.31). The mean follow-up was 4.8 ± 2.0 years for TAG patients compared to 6.1 ± 3.0 years for LIMA+SVG patients (p < 0.0001). At follow-up total mortality (8% vs 19%; p < 0.0001), and the incidence of readmission to hospital for cardiac reasons (29% vs 38%; p < 0.0001) were significantly lower in TAG compared to LIMA+SVG patients. However, after adjusting for clinical covariates, TAG did not emerge as a significant independent predictor of long-term mortality (HR 0.92; CI 0.71–1.18), readmission to hospital (HR 1.02; CI 0.89–1.18) or the composite outcome of mortality and readmission (HR 1.00; CI 0.88–1.15). Risk adjusted survival was better than 88% in both TAG and LIMA-SVG patients at 5 years follow-up.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Patients undergoing TAG appear to experience lower rates of medium-term all-cause mortality and readmission to hospital for any cardiac cause when compared to patients undergoing LIMA+SVG. However, after adjusting for clinical variables, this difference no longer persists suggesting that at median follow-up there are no mortality or morbidity benefit based on the choice of conduit.</p

Food Insecurity Prevalence Across Diverse Sites During COVID-19: A Year of Comprehensive Data

Key Findings NFACT includes 18 study sites in 15 states as well as a national poll, collectively representing a sample size of more than 26,000 people. Some sites have implemented multiple survey rounds, here we report results from 22 separate surveys conducted during the year since the COVID-19 pandemic began in March 2020. 18 out of 19 surveys in 14 sites with data for before and since the pandemic began found an increase in food insecurity since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic as compared to before the pandemic. In nearly all surveys (18/19) that measured food insecurity both before and during the pandemic, more Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) were classified as food insecure during the pandemic as compared to before it began. Prevalence of food insecurity for BIPOC respondents was higher than the overall population in the majority of surveys (19/20) sampling a general population. In almost all surveys (21/22), the prevalence of food insecurity for households with children was higher than the overall prevalence of food insecurity. Food insecurity prevalence was higher for households experiencing a negative job impact during the pandemic (i.e. job loss, furlough, reduction in hours) in nearly all surveys and study sites (21/22). Food insecurity prevalence in most sites was significantly higher before COVID-19 than estimates from that time period. Reporting a percent change between pre and during COVID-19 prevalence may provide additional information about the rate of change in food insecurity since the start of the pandemic, which absolute prevalence of food insecurity may not capture. Results highlight consistent trends in food insecurity outcomes since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, across diverse study sites, methodological approaches, and time

Country rock contamination of marginal mafic granulites bordering the Nain Plutonic Suite : implications for mobilization of Sr during high-grade contact metamorphism

The marginal mafic granulites that locally border the Nain Plutonic Suite (NPS) have a range of initial Nd-isotope ratios that overlap with that of the NPS anorthosites and associated Nain dykes. The similarity in Nd-isotope data suggests that gneissic Archaean country rocks have contaminated all the anorthosites, marginal mafic granulites, and dykes. Sr-isotope data for the mafic granulites and dykes support a country rock contamination scenario but preclude wholesale assimilation of rocks such as the host Archaean tonalite gneisses as the sole contaminant. Initial epsilonSr values of +10 to +403 and +0.9 to +242 for the mafic granulites and dykes, respectively, are significantly higher than values for NPS country rocks examined thus far. The elevated initial eSr values are therefore interpreted to result from the introduction of radiogenic Sr into the granulites and dykes via Sr-rich fluids, generated by the breakdown of Rb-rich mineral phases such as biotite in the country rocks during NPS

Ant Trap.

Patent for a new and improved ant trap. This design "compris[es] the sides adapted to encompass an anthill and composed of a bottom, inclined walls, and horizontal top portions, having depending inclined flanges, one of the sides having an opening in its bottom and provided with ways arranged on opposite sides of the opening, a removable receptacle provided with flanges arranged in said ways and having inwardly-inclined walls, and a discharge-tube arranged at one corner of the trap" (lines 77-87)

Core review: Physician-performed ultrasound: The time has come for routine use in acute care medicine

The use of ultrasound in the acute care specialties of anesthesiology, intensive care, emergency medicine, and surgery has evolved from discrete, office-based echocardiographic examinations to the real-time or point-of-care clinical assessment and interventions. “Goal-focused” transthoracic echocardiography is a limited scope (as compared with comprehensive examination) echocardiographic examination, performed by the treating clinician in acute care medical practice, and is aimed at addressing specific clinical concerns. In the future, the practice of surface ultrasound will be integrated into the everyday clinical practice as ultrasound-assisted examination and ultrasound-guided procedures. This evolution should start at the medical student level and be reinforced throughout specialist training. The key to making ultrasound available to every physician is through education programs designed to facilitate uptake, rather than to prevent access to this technology and education by specialist craft groups. There is evidence that diagnosis is improved with ultrasound examination, yet data showing change in management and improvement in patient outcome are few and an important area for future research