THE WATER RESOURCE PROBLEM

Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Daily evaluation of 26 precipitation datasets using Stage-IV gauge-radar data for the CONUS

New precipitation (P) datasets are released regularly, following innovations in weather forecasting models, satellite retrieval methods, and multi-source merging techniques. Using the conterminous US as a case study, we evaluated the performance of 26 gridded (sub-)daily P datasets to obtain insight into the merit of these innovations. The evaluation was performed at a daily timescale for the period 2008–2017 using the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE), a performance metric combining correlation, bias, and variability. As a reference, we used the high-resolution (4&thinsp;km) Stage-IV gauge-radar P dataset. Among the three KGE components, the P datasets performed worst overall in terms of correlation (related to event identification). In terms of improving KGE scores for these datasets, improved P totals (affecting the bias score) and improved distribution of P intensity (affecting the variability score) are of secondary importance. Among the 11 gauge-corrected P datasets, the best overall performance was obtained by MSWEP V2.2, underscoring the importance of applying daily gauge corrections and accounting for gauge reporting times. Several uncorrected P datasets outperformed gauge-corrected ones. Among the 15 uncorrected P datasets, the best performance was obtained by the ERA5-HRES fourth-generation reanalysis, reflecting the significant advances in earth system modeling during the last decade. The (re)analyses generally performed better in winter than in summer, while the opposite was the case for the satellite-based datasets. IMERGHH V05 performed substantially better than TMPA-3B42RT V7, attributable to the many improvements implemented in the IMERG satellite P retrieval algorithm. IMERGHH V05 outperformed ERA5-HRES in regions dominated by convective storms, while the opposite was observed in regions of complex terrain. The ERA5-EDA ensemble average exhibited higher correlations than the ERA5-HRES deterministic run, highlighting the value of ensemble modeling. The WRF regional convection-permitting climate model showed considerably more accurate P totals over the mountainous west and performed best among the uncorrected datasets in terms of variability, suggesting there is merit in using high-resolution models to obtain climatological P statistics. Our findings provide some guidance to choose the most suitable P dataset for a particular application.</p

A novel methodological approach for group classification during fission of a semi-free-ranging group of Japanese macaques (Macaca fuscata)

The self-initiated split of a social group, known as fission, is a challenge faced by many group-living animals. The study of group fission and the social restructuring process in real time provides insights into the mechanism of this biologically important process. Previous studies on fission in Japanese macaques (Macaca fuscata) assigned individuals to newly reorganized groups mainly using behavioral observations and group attendance records based on periods before or after fission itself. Here, we present a novel framework for group classification during the process of fission that uses quantifiable behavioral variables and statistical analyses. The framework was tested on a group fission process at Affenberg Landskron (Austria), a park that housed around 160 semi-free-ranging Japanese macaques. The behavioral data were collected for 26 days during fission. We analyzed three behavioral developments recurrent in fissions in Japanese macaques, that is, independence of behavior, participation in group movements, and separation of nomadic ranges. These analyses were combined to assign individuals to different groups. Our study resulted in one main group (N = 33), one subgroup (N = 36) and 56 individuals whose group membership was still undefined. The demographic characteristics of these newly formed groups were comparable with those of fissioned groups in wild populations. Furthermore, we found that these newly forming groups showed early social dynamics of fission five months before group level movements, that is: grouping based on spatial proximity and spatial withdrawal of the subgroup to the periphery. These results underline the validity of our novel framework to study social dynamics in Japanese macaques during the process of fission. It represents an important addition to existing methods, and we recommend testing its scope in other primate societies

Search for the Higgs boson in events with missing transverse energy and b quark jets produced in proton-antiproton collisions at s**(1/2)=1.96 TeV

We search for the standard model Higgs boson produced in association with an electroweak vector boson in events with no identified charged leptons, large imbalance in transverse momentum, and two jets where at least one contains a secondary vertex consistent with the decay of b hadrons. We use ~1 fb-1 integrated luminosity of proton-antiproton collisions at s**(1/2)=1.96 TeV recorded by the CDF II experiment at the Tevatron. We find 268 (16) single (double) b-tagged candidate events, where 248 +/- 43 (14.4 +/- 2.7) are expected from standard model background processes. We place 95% confidence level upper limits on the Higgs boson production cross section for several Higgs boson masses ranging from 110 GeV/c2 to 140 GeV/c2. For a mass of 115 GeV/c2 the observed (expected) limit is 20.4 (14.2) times the standard model prediction.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Observation and Mass Measurement of the Baryon Ξb−\Xi^-_b

We report the observation and measurement of the mass of the bottom, strange baryon $\Xi^-_b$ through the decay chain $\Xi^-_b \to J/\psi \Xi^-$, where $J/\psi \to \mu^+ \mu^-$, $\Xi^- \to \Lambda \pi^-$, and $\Lambda \to p \pi^-$. Evidence for observation is based on a signal whose probability of arising from the estimated background is 6.6 x 10^{-15}, or 7.7 Gaussian standard deviations. The $\Xi^-_b$ mass is measured to be $5792.9\pm 2.5$ (stat.) $\pm 1.7$ (syst.) MeV/$c^2$.Comment: Minor text changes for the second version. Accepted by Phys. Rev. Let

Polarizations of J/psi and psi(2S) Mesons Produced in ppbar Collisions at 1.96 TeV

We have measured the polarizations of \jpsi and \psiprime mesons as functions of their transverse momentum \pt when they are produced promptly in the rapidity range $|y|<0.6$ with \pt \geq 5 \pgev. The analysis is performed using a data sample with an integrated luminosity of about 800 \ipb collected by the CDF II detector. For both vector mesons, we find that the polarizations become increasingly longitudinal as \pt increases from 5 to 30 \pgev. These results are compared to the predictions of nonrelativistic quantum chromodynamics and other contemporary models. The effective polarizations of \jpsi and \psiprime mesons from $B$-hadron decays are also reported.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures, published in Physical Review Letter

Search for Third Generation Vector Leptoquarks in p anti-p Collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV

We describe a search for a third generation vector leptoquark (VLQ3) that decays to a b quark and tau lepton using the CDF II detector and 322 pb^(-1) of integrated luminosity from the Fermilab Tevatron. Vector leptoquarks have been proposed in many extensions of the standard model (SM). Observing a number of events in agreement with SM expectations, assuming Yang-Mills (minimal) couplings, we obtain the most stringent upper limit on the VLQ3 pair production cross section of 344 fb (493 fb) and lower limit on the VLQ3 mass of 317 GeV/c^2 (251 GeV/c^2) at 95% C.L.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, submitted to PR

Searches for Direct Pair Production of Supersymmetric Top and Supersymmetric Bottom Quarks in p-pbar Collisions at sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV

We search for direct pair production of supersymmetric top quarks and supersymmetric bottom quarks in proton-antiproton collisions at sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV, using 295 pb^-1 of data recorded by the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF II) experiment. The supersymmetric top (supersymmetric bottom) quarks are selected by reconstructing their decay into a charm (bottom) quark and a neutralino, which is assumed to be the lightest supersymmetric particle. The signature of such processes is two energetic heavy-flavor jets and missing transverse energy. The number of events that pass our selection for each search process is consistent with the expected standard model background. By comparing our results to the theoretical production cross sections of the supersymmetric top and supersymmetric bottom quarks in the minimal supersymmetric standard model, we exclude, at a 95% confidence level in the frame of that model, a supersymmetric top quark mass up to 132 GeV/c^2 for a neutralino mass of 48 GeV/c^2, and a supersymmetric bottom quark mass up to 193 GeV/c^2 for a neutralino mass of 40 GeV/c^2.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.