Integrating remote sensing datasets into ecological modelling: a Bayesian approach

Process-based models have been used to simulate 3-dimensional complexities of forest ecosystems and their temporal changes, but their extensive data requirement and complex parameterisation have often limited their use for practical management applications. Increasingly, information retrieved using remote sensing techniques can help in model parameterisation and data collection by providing spatially and temporally resolved forest information. In this paper, we illustrate the potential of Bayesian calibration for integrating such data sources to simulate forest production. As an example, we use the 3-PG model combined with hyperspectral, LiDAR, SAR and field-based data to simulate the growth of UK Corsican pine stands. Hyperspectral, LiDAR and SAR data are used to estimate LAI dynamics, tree height and above ground biomass, respectively, while the Bayesian calibration provides estimates of uncertainties to model parameters and outputs. The Bayesian calibration contrasts with goodness-of-fit approaches, which do not provide uncertainties to parameters and model outputs. Parameters and the data used in the calibration process are presented in the form of probability distributions, reflecting our degree of certainty about them. After the calibration, the distributions are updated. To approximate posterior distributions (of outputs and parameters), a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling approach is used (25 000 steps). A sensitivity analysis is also conducted between parameters and outputs. Overall, the results illustrate the potential of a Bayesian framework for truly integrative work, both in the consideration of field-based and remotely sensed datasets available and in estimating parameter and model output uncertainties

Biological Records Centre Annual Report 2005-2006

The period covered by this report is the first year of a new six-year partnership between CEH and JNCC. For this period, there is increased emphasis on targeted survey, on analysis and interpretation and on communications and outreach. These activities were always part of BRC’s work, but they have been given greater prominence as a result of rapid developments in information technology. Data are increasingly reaching BRC in electronic form, so that the effort of data entry and collation is reduced. The data, collected by many volunteers and then collated and analysed at BRC, document the changing status and distribution of plants and animals in Britain. Distribution maps are published in atlases and are available via the internet through the NBN Gateway. The effects of change or loss of habitats, the influence of climate change and the consequences of changing water quality are all examples of the environmental factors that affect our biodiversity and which BRC aims to document and understand. The results are vital for developing environmental policies, to support conservation, and for fundamental ecological research. BRC is funded jointly by JNCC and NERC through a partnership based on a Memorandum of Agreement (MoA). The partnership started in 1973 when the Nature Conservancy was divided to form the successor bodies Nature Conservancy Council (NCC) and Institute of Terrestrial Ecology (ITE). NCC was in turn divided further to form JNCC and three Country Agencies, while ITE was merged with other NERC units to form CEH. Through all these changes, the partnership has been maintained. A six-year memorandum of agreement ended on 31 January 2005 (Hill et al. 2005). The present report covers the first full year, 2005-6, of the new agreement for 2005-2010. Rapid progress in information technology continues to be highly beneficial for BRC, whose data are increasingly used by the UK country conservation agencies, environmental consultants, NGOs, research workers, policy makers and volunteers. It is gratifying to know that, through our ability to display data on the National Biodiversity Network (NBN) Gateway, some of our data suppliers now have immediate access to their own data in a convenient form. The year 2005-6 has been one of steady progress, with new datasets added to BRC, substantial additions to existing data, and improved communication with the NBN Gateway. The most high profile activity of the year has been the Harlequin Ladybird Survey, which has enabled us to observe the early stages of colonization by a mobile insect in greater detail than has been possible in any previous case

Use of a Semi-field System to Evaluate the Efficacy of Topical Repellents under user Conditions Provides a Disease Exposure free Technique Comparable with Field Data.

Before topical repellents can be employed as interventions against arthropod bites, their efficacy must be established. Currently, laboratory or field tests, using human volunteers, are the main methods used for assessing the efficacy of topical repellents. However, laboratory tests are not representative of real life conditions under which repellents are used and field-testing potentially exposes human volunteers to disease. There is, therefore, a need to develop methods to test efficacy of repellents under real life conditions while minimizing volunteer exposure to disease. A lotion-based, 15% N, N-Diethyl-3-methylbenzamide (DEET) repellent and 15% DEET in ethanol were compared to a placebo lotion in a 200 sq m (10 m x 20 m) semi-field system (SFS) against laboratory-reared Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes and in full field settings against wild malaria vectors and nuisance-biting mosquitoes. The average percentage protection against biting mosquitoes over four hours in the SFS and field setting was determined. A Poisson regression model was then used to determine relative risk of being bitten when wearing either of these repellents compared to the placebo. Average percentage protection of the lotion-based 15% DEET repellent after four hours of mosquito collection was 82.13% (95% CI 75.94-88.82) in the semi-field experiments and 85.10% (95% CI 78.97-91.70) in the field experiments. Average percentage protection of 15% DEET in ethanol after four hours was 71.29% (CI 61.77-82.28) in the semi-field system and 88.24% (84.45-92.20) in the field. Semi-field evaluation results were comparable to full-field evaluations, indicating that such systems could be satisfactorily used in measuring efficacy of topically applied mosquito repellents, thereby avoiding risks of exposure to mosquito-borne pathogens, associated with field testing

The acceleration and storage of radioactive ions for a neutrino factory

The term beta-beam has been coined for the production of a pure beam of electron neutrinos or their antiparticles through the decay of radioactive ions circulating in a storage ring. This concept requires radioactive ions to be accelerated to a Lorentz gamma of 150 for 6He and 60 for 18Ne. The neutrino source itself consists of a storage ring for this energy range, with long straight sections in line with the experiment(s). Such a decay ring does not exist at CERN today, nor does a high-intensity proton source for the production of the radioactive ions. Nevertheless, the existing CERN accelerator infrastructure could be used as this would still represent an important saving for a beta-beam facility. This paper outlines the first study, while some of the more speculative ideas will need further investigations.Comment: Accepted for publication in proceedings of Nufact02, London, 200

The Impact of Phenotypic and Genotypic G6PD Deficiency on Risk of Plasmodium vivax Infection: A Case-Control Study amongst Afghan Refugees in Pakistan

Analyses of a case-control study among Afghan refugees in Pakistan find that a G6PD (glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase) “Mediterranean” type deficiency confers substantial protection against Plasmodium vivax malaria

Abordagem aos números decimais e suas operações: a importância de uma “eficaz navegação” entre representações

Este artigo foca alguns aspectos e ideias de tarefas a serem exploradas com os alunos relativamente à multiplicação de números decimais, discutindo o conhecimento matemático para o ensino subjacente à preparação e à aplicação de tais tarefas. Discutem-se algumas representações dessa multiplicação e a importância de um rico e fundamentado conhecimento matemático para o ensino como promotor de um conhecimento matemático com significado, por parte dos alunos, por via de uma eficaz navegação entre representações. A escolha das representações pretende, aqui, tornar também evidente o motivo pelo qual, ao multiplicar dois números decimais, o número de casas decimais do produto é a soma dos factores. O texto tem por base um trabalho colaborativo desenvolvido ao longo dos últimos anos com professores do 1º ciclo do ensino básico (alunos com idade entre seis e nove anos), tendo como ponto de partida as discussões ocorridas ali, as reflexões subjacentes e as maiores dificuldades sentidas tanto pelos alunos, como pelos próprios professores. É de salientar que o facto de se abordarem conjuntamente representações dos números em decimais e fraccionários possibilita que os alunos se consciencializem de diferentes representações para um mesmo valor, o mesmo ocorrendo quando se utilizam diversas quantidades como unidades discretas, ou distintos tipos de unidades. Apenas se o professor for detentor de um sustentado conhecimento matemático para o ensino ele poderá recorrer a essas distintas representações de maneira construtiva e de modo a que tenham significado para os alunos

Troubling "understanding mathematics-in-depth": Its role in the identity work of student-teachers in England

Copyright @ The Author(s) 2013. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.comThis article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.In this paper, we focus on an initiative in England devised to prepare non-mathematics graduates to train as secondary mathematics teachers through a 6-month Mathematics Enhancement Course (MEC) to boost their subject knowledge. The course documentation focuses on the need to develop “understanding mathematics in-depth” in students in order for them to become successful mathematics teachers. We take a poststructural approach, so we are not interested in asking what such an understanding is, about the value of this approach or about the effectiveness of the MECs in developing this understanding in their participants. Instead we explore what positions this discourse of “understanding mathematics in-depth” makes available to MEC students. We do this by looking in detail at the “identity work” of two students, analysing how they use and are used by this discourse to position themselves as future mathematics teachers. In doing so, we show how even benign-looking social practices such as “understanding mathematics in-depth” are implicated in practices of inclusion and exclusion. We show this through detailed readings of interviews with two participants, one of whom fits with the dominant discourses in the MEC and the other who, despite passing the MEC, experiences tensions between her national identity work and MEC discourses. We argue that it is vital to explore “identity work” within teacher education contexts to ensure that becoming a successful mathematics teacher is equally available to all.King’s College Londo

Safety and immunogenicity of an FP9-vectored candidate tuberculosis vaccine (FP85A), alone and with candidate vaccine MVA85A in BCG-vaccinated healthy adults: a phase I clinical trial.

The safety and immunogenicity of a new candidate tuberculosis (TB) vaccine, FP85A was evaluated alone and in heterologous prime-boost regimes with another candidate TB vaccine, MVA85A. This was an open label, non-controlled, non-randomized Phase I clinical trial. Healthy previously BCG-vaccinated adult subjects were enrolled sequentially into three groups and vaccinated with FP85A alone, or both FP85A and MVA85A, with a four week interval between vaccinations. Passive and active data on adverse events were collected. Immunogenicity was evaluated by Enzyme Linked Immunospot (ELISpot), flow cytometry and Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Most adverse events were mild and there were no vaccine-related serious adverse events. FP85A vaccination did not enhance antigen 85A-specific cellular immunity. When MVA85A vaccination was preceded by FP85A vaccination, cellular immune responses were lower compared with when MVA85A vaccination was the first immunisation. MVA85A vaccination, but not FP85A vaccination, induced anti-MVA IgG antibodies. Both MVA85A and FP85A vaccinations induced anti-FP9 IgG antibodies. In conclusion, FP85A vaccination was well tolerated but did not induce antigen-specific cellular immune responses. We hypothesize that FP85A induced anti-FP9 IgG antibodies with cross-reactivity for MVA85A, which may have mediated inhibition of the immune response to subsequent MVA85A. ClinicalTrials.gov identification number: NCT00653770

Quantifying the recent expansion of native invasive rush species in a UK upland environment

Rushes, such as soft rush (Juncus effusus L.), hard rush (Juncus inflexus L.) and compact rush (Juncus conglomeratus L.) have become problem species within upland grasslands across the UK and the coastal grasslands of western Norway. Indeed, being largely unpalatable to livestock and having a vigorous reproductive ecology means that they can rapidly come to dominate swards. However, rush dominance results in a reduction in grassland biodiversity and farm productivity. Anecdotal evidence from the UK suggests that rush cover within marginal upland grasslands has increased considerably in recent decades. Yet, there is currently no published evidence to support this observation. Here, we use recent and historical Google Earth imagery to measure changes in rush frequency over a 13-year period within four survey years: 2005, 2009, 2015 and 2018. During each survey year, we quantified rush presence or absence using a series of quadrats located within 300 upland grassland plots in the West Pennine Moors, UK. Data were analysed in two stages, first, by calculating mean rush frequencies per sample year using all the available plot-year combinations (the full dataset), and second by examining 25 differences in rush frequency using only the plots for which rush frequency data were available in every sample year (the continuous dataset). The full dataset indicated that rush frequency has increased by 82% between 2005 and 2018. Similarly, the continuous dataset suggested that rush frequency has increased by 174% over the same period, with the increases in frequency being statistically significant (P<0.05) between 2005-2018 and 2009-2018. We discuss the potential drivers of rush expansion in the West Pennine Moors, the ecological and agronomic implications of grassland rush infestations, and priorities for future research

Overcoming challenges of translating deep- learning models for glioblastoma: the ZGBM consortium

Objective: To report imaging protocol and scheduling variance in routine care of glioblastoma patients in order to demonstrate challenges of integrating deep-learning models in glioblastoma care pathways. Additionally, to understand the most common imaging studies and image contrasts to inform the development of potentially robust deep-learning models. Methods: MR imaging data were analysed from a random sample of five patients from the prospective cohort across five participating sites of the ZGBM consortium. Reported clinical and treatment data alongside DICOM header information were analysed to understand treatment pathway imaging schedules. Results: All sites perform all structural imaging at every stage in the pathway except for the presurgical study, where in some sites only contrast-enhanced T 1-weighted imaging is performed. Diffusion MRI is the most common non-structural imaging type, performed at every site. Conclusion: The imaging protocol and scheduling varies across the UK, making it challenging to develop machine-learning models that could perform robustly at other centres. Structural imaging is performed most consistently across all centres. Advances in knowledge: Successful translation of deep-learning models will likely be based on structural post-treatment imaging unless there is significant effort made to standardise non-structural or peri-operative imaging protocols and schedules