Improving statistical models for flood risk assessment

Widespread flooding, such as the events in the winter of 2013/2014 in the UK and early summer 2013 in Cent ral Europe, demonst rate clearly how important it is to understand the characterist ics of floods in which mult iple locat ions experience ext reme river flows. Recent developments in mult ivariate stat ist ical modelling help to place such events in a probabilist ic framework. It is now possible to perform joint probability analysis of events defined in terms of physical variables at hundreds of locat ions simultaneously, over mult iple variables (including river flows, rainfall and sea levels), combined with analysis of temporal dependence to capture the evolut ion of events over a large domain. Crit ical const raints on such data-driven methods are the problems of missing data, especially where records over a network are not all concurrent , the joint analysis of several different physical variables, and the choice of suitable t ime scales when combining informat ion from those variables. This paper presents new developments of a high-dimensional condit ional probability model for ext reme river flow events condit ioned on flow and r ainfall observat ions. These are: a new computat ionally efficient paramet ric approach to account for missing data in the joint analysis of ext remes over a large hydromet ric network; a robust approach for the spat ial interpolation of extreme events throughout a large river network,; generat ion of realist ic est imates of ext remes at ungauged locat ions; and, exploit ing rainfall information rat ionally within the stat ist ical model to help improve efficiency. These methodological advances will be illust rated with data from the UK river network and recent events to show how they cont ribute to a flexible and effective framework for flood risk assessment, with applicat ions in the insurance sector and for nat ional-scale emergency planning

Parallel netCDF: A Scientific High-Performance I/O Interface

Dataset storage, exchange, and access play a critical role in scientific applications. For such purposes netCDF serves as a portable and efficient file format and programming interface, which is popular in numerous scientific application domains. However, the original interface does not provide an efficient mechanism for parallel data storage and access. In this work, we present a new parallel interface for writing and reading netCDF datasets. This interface is derived with minimum changes from the serial netCDF interface but defines semantics for parallel access and is tailored for high performance. The underlying parallel I/O is achieved through MPI-IO, allowing for dramatic performance gains through the use of collective I/O optimizations. We compare the implementation strategies with HDF5 and analyze both. Our tests indicate programming convenience and significant I/O performance improvement with this parallel netCDF interface.Comment: 10 pages,7 figure

Learning by Asking Questions

We introduce an interactive learning framework for the development and testing of intelligent visual systems, called learning-by-asking (LBA). We explore LBA in context of the Visual Question Answering (VQA) task. LBA differs from standard VQA training in that most questions are not observed during training time, and the learner must ask questions it wants answers to. Thus, LBA more closely mimics natural learning and has the potential to be more data-efficient than the traditional VQA setting. We present a model that performs LBA on the CLEVR dataset, and show that it automatically discovers an easy-to-hard curriculum when learning interactively from an oracle. Our LBA generated data consistently matches or outperforms the CLEVR train data and is more sample efficient. We also show that our model asks questions that generalize to state-of-the-art VQA models and to novel test time distributions

Exploiting data locality in Swift/T workflows using Hercules

The ever-increasing power of supercomputer systems is both driving and enabling the emergence of new problem-solving methods that require the efficient execution of many concurrent and interacting tasks. Swift/T, as a description language and runtime, offers the dynamic creation and execution of workflows, varying in granularity, on high-component-count platforms. Swift/T takes advantage of the Asynchronous Dynamic Load Balancing (ADLB) library to dynamically distribute the tasks among the nodes. These tasks may share data using a parallel file system, an approach that could degrade performance as a result of interference with other applications and poor exploitation of data locality. The objective of this work is to expose and exploit data locality in Swift/T through Hercules, a distributed in-memory store based on Memcached, and to explore tradeoffs between data locality and load balance in distributed workflow executions. In this paper we present our approach to enable locality-based optimizations in Swift/T by guiding ADLB to schedule computation jobs in the nodes containing the required data. We also analyze the interaction between locality and load balance: our initial measurements based on various raw file access patterns show promising results. Moreover, we present future work based on the promising results achieved so far.This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, under contract DE-AC02-06CH11357. Computing resources were provided by the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility. The work presented in this paper was supported by the COST Action IC1305, “Network for Sustainable Ultrascale Computing (NESUS).” The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement number 328582

Viewers base estimates of face matching accuracy on their own familiarity: Explaining the photo-ID paradox

Matching two different images of a face is a very easy task for familiar viewers, but much harder for unfamiliar viewers. Despite this, use of photo-ID is widespread, and people appear not to know how unreliable it is. We present a series of experiments investigating bias both when performing a matching task and when predicting other people’s performance. Participants saw pairs of faces and were asked to make a same/different judgement, after which they were asked to predict how well other people, unfamiliar with these faces, would perform. In four experiments we show different groups of participants familiar and unfamiliar faces, manipulating this in different ways: celebrities in experiments 1 to 3 and personally familiar faces in experiment 4. The results consistently show that people match images of familiar faces more accurately than unfamiliar faces. However, people also reliably predict that the faces they themselves know will be more accurately matched by different viewers. This bias is discussed in the context of current theoretical debates about face recognition, and we suggest that it may underlie the continued use of photo-ID, despite the availability of evidence about its unreliability

A Paler Shade of Green: Suburban Nature in Margaret Atwood’s Cat's Eye

Critics of Canadian literature such as Cheryl Cowdy, Frank Davey, and Franca Bellarsi construe suburbia as existing somewhere in between the concrete jungle and the verdant wilderness. The ecocritical implications of this geographic and critical positioning, however, have not yet been thoroughly examined. Common images of suburbanites portray people in the “enclosed private worlds of fences, parlours and automobiles,” cut off from their larger communities and environments in collective isolation. Margaret Atwood’s Cat’s Eye (1988) depicts how this separate-from-nature culture is fostered. As Elaine Risley faces the repressed, traumatizing experiences of her childhood, she confronts her and her society’s various interrelationships with the natural world, showing how a suburban upbringing can produce unsatisfactory relationships with both human and non-human nature. In so doing, Cat’s Eye critiques common, urbane conceptions of nature from a point of view that is quintessentially ecocritical. Aside from the obvious environmental concerns vocalized by Elaine’s biologist father, ecological issues are relevant to three other aspects of the novel: Elaine’s early childhood in northern Ontario, her later summer vacations there, and the social pressures and cultural practices that Elaine experiences in suburbia. Through these elements of the narrative, Cat’s Eye articulates some of the fundamental relationships with nature experienced by those living in suburban Canada and seeks to move beyond conventional portrayals of this relationship