A NOTE ON HOUSING WEALTH AND PRIVATE CONSUMPTION

This paper analyses the relationship between house prices and private consumption of the US economy. Based on Granger's causality test, we ask whether this relationship is driven by causality or whether it is merely an ambiguous connection. Based on latest quartely data, our results show that there is indeed a causal relationship with changes in house prices affeting private consumption, fundamentally supporting economic theory. Considering existing research, it is therefore suggested that the US economy is at the outset of a severe economic downturn, confirming pessimist's expectations.Wealth effect; House prices; Consumption; Granger causality

De-Industrialisation, Entrepreneurial Industries and Welfare

We develop a two-sector general equilibrium model with monopolistic competition featuring nonhomothetic production and a variable demand elasticity for the manufactured goods. An increase in the relative price of manufacturing varieties can lead to a decline in total industrial output in our framework, i.e., to de-industrialisation.The two key mechanisms behind this surprising result are that the founding of firms requires skilled labour as a fixed input requirement, and that the price increase can raise the profit margin in the manufacturing industry and thereby induce firm entry. When the manufacturing sector mainly adjusts at the extensive margin,we refer to this industry as being entrepreneurial. Due to the fixed input requirement entry reduces the effective endowment of skilled labour available for production.This reduces industrial output owing to a novel generalized version of the Rybczynski effect. De-industrialisation occurs if that effect is sufficiently large in comparison with the standard output price effect for a given number of firms. Furthermore we prove the counterintuitive result that de-industrialisation implies a fall in the output per firm and under plausible conditions a rise in welfare. Our results shed new light on the current debates about possible causes of premature de-industrialisation and its welfare effects.Entrepreneurial industries, monopolistic competition, de-industrialisation, welfare effects

Maximum likelihood estimation for social network dynamics

A model for network panel data is discussed, based on the assumption that the observed data are discrete observations of a continuous-time Markov process on the space of all directed graphs on a given node set, in which changes in tie variables are independent conditional on the current graph. The model for tie changes is parametric and designed for applications to social network analysis, where the network dynamics can be interpreted as being generated by choices made by the social actors represented by the nodes of the graph. An algorithm for calculating the Maximum Likelihood estimator is presented, based on data augmentation and stochastic approximation. An application to an evolving friendship network is given and a small simulation study is presented which suggests that for small data sets the Maximum Likelihood estimator is more efficient than the earlier proposed Method of Moments estimator.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS313 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

How promise breaking in trade rhetoric shapes attitudes toward bilateral US-China trade cooperation

The ongoing trade war between the United States and China represents one of the most severe deteriorations of trade cooperation in modern times. In this context, the ferocious trade rhetoric accusing China of breaking promises in trade policy is striking. A previously unexamined question in this context arises: How does this rhetoric shape individual attitudes toward bilateral trade cooperation? My analysis of original survey experiments from the United States and China (n = 4181) suggests that this type of rhetoric has important ramifications. Experimental evidence from both countries suggests that individuals react more strongly to rhetoric emphasizing negative than positive past behaviour of the trading partner. Overall, this pattern prevails independently of the identity of the trading partner. Promise-breaking trade narratives, a key contextual dimension of the US-China trade war, diminish the perceived level of trustworthiness of the other country. A conjoint analysis suggests that individuals’ trade cooperation attitudes are also shaped by rhetoric targeting issue areas beyond trade, such as military affairs and human rights. These findings highlight the importance of contextual factors accompanying the US-China trade war context. Thereby, this article emphasizes the potential for political elites to effectively leverage fundamental individual fairness principles for invigorating opposition to open trading relations