Contingent valuation and real referendum behaviour,

This paper compares contingent values for a hypothetical landscape protection programme with respondents’ voting behaviour in an actual referendum. We use the example of a proposed increase of expenditures for landscape protection in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland. In particular we examine (i) CVM bid magnitudes of the different voter groups, (ii) relationships between qualitative response categories, (iii) consistency of responses assuming tax increases are known, and (iv) associations with socio-economic characteristics. Results suggest a strong upward bias of hypothetical values, possibly indicating that many respondents failed to realistically consider their budget constraints in the hypothetical choice situation.Contingent valuation; external validity; public goods; referendum voting

Distance Matters For Improving Performance Estimation Under Covariate Shift

Performance estimation under covariate shift is a crucial component of safe AI model deployment, especially for sensitive use-cases. Recently, several solutions were proposed to tackle this problem, most leveraging model predictions or softmax confidence to derive accuracy estimates. However, under dataset shifts, confidence scores may become ill-calibrated if samples are too far from the training distribution. In this work, we show that taking into account distances of test samples to their expected training distribution can significantly improve performance estimation under covariate shift. Precisely, we introduce a "distance-check" to flag samples that lie too far from the expected distribution, to avoid relying on their untrustworthy model outputs in the accuracy estimation step. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this method on 13 image classification tasks, across a wide-range of natural and synthetic distribution shifts and hundreds of models, with a median relative MAE improvement of 27% over the best baseline across all tasks, and SOTA performance on 10 out of 13 tasks. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/melanibe/distance_matters_performance_estimation.Comment: Accepted to ICCV Workshop on Uncertainty Quantification for Computer Vision 202

Robust semi-supervised segmentation with timestep ensembling diffusion models

Medical image segmentation is a challenging task, made more difficult by many datasets' limited size and annotations. Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPM) have recently shown promise in modelling the distribution of natural images and were successfully applied to various medical imaging tasks. This work focuses on semi-supervised image segmentation using diffusion models, particularly addressing domain generalisation. Firstly, we demonstrate that smaller diffusion steps generate latent representations that are more robust for downstream tasks than larger steps. Secondly, we use this insight to propose an improved esembling scheme that leverages information-dense small steps and the regularising effect of larger steps to generate predictions. Our model shows significantly better performance in domain-shifted settings while retaining competitive performance in-domain. Overall, this work highlights the potential of DDPMs for semi-supervised medical image segmentation and provides insights into optimising their performance under domain shift.Comment: Published at Machine Learning for Health (ML4H) 2023, presented at Medical Imaging meets NeurIPS 2023 and Deep Generative Models for Health Workshop NeurIPS 202

Mitigating attribute amplification in counterfactual image generation

Causal generative modelling is gaining interest in medical imaging due to its ability to answer interventional and counterfactual queries. Most work focuses on generating counterfactual images that look plausible, using auxiliary classifiers to enforce effectiveness of simulated interventions. We investigate pitfalls in this approach, discovering the issue of attribute amplification, where unrelated attributes are spuriously affected during interventions, leading to biases across protected characteristics and disease status. We show that attribute amplification is caused by the use of hard labels in the counterfactual training process and propose soft counterfactual fine-tuning to mitigate this issue. Our method substantially reduces the amplification effect while maintaining effectiveness of generated images, demonstrated on a large chest X-ray dataset. Our work makes an important advancement towards more faithful and unbiased causal modelling in medical imaging

Decreased Functional Diversity and Biological Pest Control in Conventional Compared to Organic Crop Fields

Organic farming is one of the most successful agri-environmental schemes, as humans benefit from high quality food, farmers from higher prices for their products and it often successfully protects biodiversity. However there is little knowledge if organic farming also increases ecosystem services like pest control. We assessed 30 triticale fields (15 organic vs. 15 conventional) and recorded vascular plants, pollinators, aphids and their predators. Further, five conventional fields which were treated with insecticides were compared with 10 non-treated conventional fields. Organic fields had five times higher plant species richness and about twenty times higher pollinator species richness compared to conventional fields. Abundance of pollinators was even more than one-hundred times higher on organic fields. In contrast, the abundance of cereal aphids was five times lower in organic fields, while predator abundances were three times higher and predator-prey ratios twenty times higher in organic fields, indicating a significantly higher potential for biological pest control in organic fields. Insecticide treatment in conventional fields had only a short-term effect on aphid densities while later in the season aphid abundances were even higher and predator abundances lower in treated compared to untreated conventional fields. Our data indicate that insecticide treatment kept aphid predators at low abundances throughout the season, thereby significantly reducing top-down control of aphid populations. Plant and pollinator species richness as well as predator abundances and predator-prey ratios were higher at field edges compared to field centres, highlighting the importance of field edges for ecosystem services. In conclusion organic farming increases biodiversity, including important functional groups like plants, pollinators and predators which enhance natural pest control. Preventative insecticide application in conventional fields has only short-term effects on aphid densities but long-term negative effects on biological pest control. Therefore conventional farmers should restrict insecticide applications to situations where thresholds for pest densities are reached

Assessing the effect of the time since transition to organic farming on plants and butterflies

1.Environmental changes may not always result in rapid changes in species distributions, abundances or diversity. In order to estimate the effects of, for example, land-use changes caused by agri-environment schemes (AES) on biodiversity and ecosystem services, information on the time-lag between the application of the scheme and the responses of organisms is essential

Impacts of habitat heterogeneity on the provision of multiple ecosystem services in a temperate floodplain

The relationships between habitat heterogeneity and the provision of multiple ecosystem services are not well understood. This study investigates the impacts of heterogeneity in surface floodwater inundation on the productive efficiency of ecosystem service provision, and the degree to which the relative provision of these ecosystem services is evenly balanced. We analyse indicators of five services. Field data from 100 floodplain quadrats were first analysed to investigate relationships between ecosystem service indicators and floodplain hydrology. Floodplain mosaics of varying hydrological heterogeneity were then simulated using the empirical data. Simulated floodplains with higher hydrological heterogeneity were generally less efficient in providing the target indicators, because they were adapted to the particular hydrological ranges which best provided the target services. Simulated floodplains that were more heterogeneous generally provided more even levels of the target indicators by segregating provision into different habitat types. Heterogeneity in floodplain hydrology may help to balance provision of multiple ecosystem services. However, management of hydrological heterogeneity to achieve this requires a detailed understanding of the relationships between each service and habitat conditions

Reduced Population Control of an Insect Pest in Managed Willow Monocultures

BACKGROUND: There is a general belief that insect outbreak risk is higher in plant monocultures than in natural and more diverse habitats, although empirical studies investigating this relationship are lacking. In this study, using density data collected over seven years at 40 study sites, we compare the temporal population variability of the leaf beetle Phratora vulgatissima between willow plantations and natural willow habitats. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The study was conducted in 1999-2005. The density of adult P. vulgatissima was estimated in the spring every year by a knock-down sampling technique. We used two measures of population variability, CV and PV, to compare temporal variations in leaf beetle density between plantation and natural habitat. Relationships between density and variability were also analyzed to discern potential underlying processes behind stability in the two systems. The results showed that the leaf beetle P. vulgatissima had a greater temporal population variability and outbreak risk in willow plantations than in natural willow habitats. We hypothesize that the greater population stability observed in the natural habitat was due to two separate processes operating at different levels of beetle density. First, stable low population equilibrium can be achieved by the relatively high density of generalist predators observed in natural stands. Second, stable equilibrium can also be imposed at higher beetle density due to competition, which occurs through depletion of resources (plant foliage) in the natural habitat. In willow plantations, competition is reduced mainly because plants grow close enough for beetle larvae to move to another plant when foliage is consumed. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: To our knowledge, this is the first empirical study confirming that insect pest outbreak risk is higher in monocultures. The study suggests that comparative studies of insect population dynamics in different habitats may improve our ability to predict insect pest outbreaks and could facilitate the development of sustainable pest control in managed systems

Organic Farming Improves Pollination Success in Strawberries

Pollination of insect pollinated crops has been found to be correlated to pollinator abundance and diversity. Since organic farming has the potential to mitigate negative effects of agricultural intensification on biodiversity, it may also benefit crop pollination, but direct evidence of this is scant. We evaluated the effect of organic farming on pollination of strawberry plants focusing on (1) if pollination success was higher on organic farms compared to conventional farms, and (2) if there was a time lag from conversion to organic farming until an effect was manifested. We found that pollination success and the proportion of fully pollinated berries were higher on organic compared to conventional farms and this difference was already evident 2–4 years after conversion to organic farming. Our results suggest that conversion to organic farming may rapidly increase pollination success and hence benefit the ecosystem service of crop pollination regarding both yield quantity and quality

Can the understory affect the Hymenoptera parasitoids in a Eucalyptus plantation?

The understory in forest plantations can increase richness and diversity of natural enemies due to greater plant species richness. The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that the presence of the understory and climatic season in the region (wet or dry) can increase the richness and abundance of Hymenoptera parasitoids in Eucalyptus plantations, in the municipality of Belo Oriente, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. In each eucalyptus cultivation (five areas of cultivation) ten Malaise traps were installed, five with the understory and five without it. A total of 9,639 individuals from 30 families of the Hymenoptera parasitoids were collected, with Mymaridae, Scelionidae, Encyrtidae and Braconidae being the most collected ones with 4,934, 1,212, 619 and 612 individuals, respectively. The eucalyptus stands with and without the understory showed percentage of individuals 45.65% and 54.35% collected, respectively. The understory did not represent a positive effect on the overall abundance of the individuals Hymenoptera in the E. grandis stands, but rather exerted a positive effect on the specific families of the parasitoids of this order