A commentary on “how to interpret expert judgment assessments of twenty-first century sea-level rise” by Hylke de Vries and Roderik SW van de Wal

We clarify key aspects of the evaluation, by de Vries and van de Wal (2015), of our expert elicitation paper on the contributions of ice sheet melting to sea level rise due to future global temperature rise scenarios (Bamber and Aspinall 2013), and extend the conversation with further analysis of their proposed approach for combining expert uncertainty judgments.Applied Probabilit

Diversity of Tanaidacea (Crustacea: Peracarida) in the World\u27s Oceans - How Far Have We Come?

Tanaidaceans are small peracarid crustaceans which occur in all marine habitats, over the full range of depths, and rarely into fresh waters. Yet they have no obligate dispersive phase in their life-cycle. Populations are thus inevitably isolated, and allopatric speciation and high regional diversity are inevitable; cosmopolitan distributions are considered to be unlikely or non-existent. Options for passive dispersion are discussed. Tanaidaceans appear to have first evolved in shallow waters, the region of greatest diversification of the Apseudomorpha and some tanaidomorph families, while in deeper waters the apseudomorphs have subsequently evolved two or three distinct phyletic lines. The Neotanaidomorpha has evolved separately and diversified globally in deep waters, and the Tanaidomorpha has undergone the greatest evolution, diversification and adaptation, to the point where some of the deep-water taxa are recolonizing shallow waters. Analysis of their geographic distribution shows some level of regional isolation, but suffers from inclusion of polyphyletic taxa and a general lack of data, particularly for deep waters. It is concluded that the diversity of the tanaidomorphs in deeper waters and in certain ocean regions remains to be discovered; that the smaller taxa are largely understudied; and that numerous cryptic species remain to be distinguished. Thus the number of species currently recognized is likely to be an order of magnitude too low, and globally the Tanaidacea potentially rival the Amphipoda and Isopoda in diversity

Tanapseudes gutui, a New Species of Apseudomorphan Tanaidacea (Crustacea: Peracarida) from the Caribbean Sea and the Taxonomic Status of the Family Tanapseudidae Băcescu

Tanapseudes gutui, n. sp., is described from depths of 3–34 m off San Juan, Puerto Rico, and 4– 5 m off Goat Island, Tobago. Tanapseudes sinensis Bamber from Hong Kong waters is re-examined and determined to represent a junior synonym of the type species T. ormuzana Băcescu which was originally collected in the Straights of Hormuz off Iran. Tanapseudes gutui can be distinguished from T. ormuzana by several characters including details of the mouth parts, the presence of a reduced spiniform seta on the distotergal margin of the propodus of pereopod 1, pereonites 3–6 with rounded anterior margins, and a pleotelson lacking a mid-lateral lobe. A neotype is established for T. ormuzana based on a specimen collected from near the original type locality, and its mouth parts and pereopod 1 are illustrated. Largely based on the absence of a palp on the maxillule and the presence of a bifurcate seta on the dactyl of pereopod 1, the family Tanapseudidae Băcescu is now considered a subfamily within the family Kalliapseudidae Lang sensu Gutu. The genus Paradoxapseudes Gutu, formerly within the family Tanapseudidae sensu Gutu, is tentatively transferred to the family Apseudidae Leach

Apseudomorph tanaidaceans (Crustacea: Peracarida) from mud-volcanoes in the Gulf of Cadiz (North-east Atlantic)

Faunal collections from mud-volcano sites in the Gulf of Cadiz, at depths between 355 and 3061 m, have revealed a high diversity (and in some cases high density) of tanaidaceans. A previous paper has described some of the tanaidomorph species found. Records of apseudomorph species from deep-sea chemosynthetic habitats are almost non-existent. The present study reports on seven apseudomorph species from five different genera from this material; two of the species, one in each of the genera Sphyrapus and Pseudosphyrapus are new to science, although there was insufficient material available to describe fully the Pseudosphyrapus species. Two of the other species are reported herein for only the second time. A neo-type is erected for Apseudes setiferus Bacescu, and a lectotype for Sphyrapus malleolus Norman & Stebbing; these two, plus Atlantapseudes nigrifrons Bacescu and Fageapseudes retusifrons Richardson are redescribed. The habitus of Apseudes grossimanus is figured. None of the taxa appear to show any morphological features specifically adapted to the peculiar habitat around mud-volcanoes. The genus Collossella is relegated to the synonymy of Fageapseudes. The non-chemosynthetic-habitat-associated species Apseudes coriolis is moved to Taraxapseudes.EC - GOCE-CT-2005-511234 HERMESEC - 226354 HERMIONETraining Through Research Programme IOC-UNESCOCensus of Marine Life Project COMARGEMNiSW grant 2PO4C 089 29

Ice sheet and climate processes driving the uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise: Findings from a structured expert judgement approach.

The ice sheets covering Antarctica and Greenland present the greatest uncertainty in, and largest potential contribution to, future sea level rise. The uncertainty arises from a paucity of suitable observations covering the full range of ice sheet behaviors, incomplete understanding of the influences of diverse processes, and limitations in defining key boundary conditions for the numerical models. To investigate the impact of these uncertainties on ice sheet projections we undertook a structured expert judgement study. Here, we interrogate the findings of that study to identify the dominant drivers of uncertainty in projections and their relative importance as a function of ice sheet and time. We find that for the 21st century, Greenland surface melting, in particular the role of surface albedo effects, and West Antarctic ice dynamics, specifically the role of ice shelf buttressing, dominate the uncertainty. The importance of these effects holds under both a high-end 5°C global warming scenario and another that limits global warming to 2°C. During the 22nd century the dominant drivers of uncertainty shift. Under the 5°C scenario, East Antarctic ice dynamics dominate the uncertainty in projections, driven by the possible role of ice flow instabilities. These dynamic effects only become dominant, however, for a temperature scenario above the Paris Agreement 2°C target and beyond 2100. Our findings identify key processes and factors that need to be addressed in future modeling and observational studies in order to reduce uncertainties in ice sheet projections

Environmental harm assessment of a wastewater discharge from Hammerfest LNG: A study with biomarkers in mussels (Mytilus sp.) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua)

Biologically treated wastewater (WW) from the Hammerfest LNG (liquefied natural gas) plant is discharged to the sea. A study using biomarkers in mussels and Atlantic cod was performed to examine whether this discharge meets a zero harmful emission requirement. Caging of mussels close to the outfall and exposure of mussels and fish to WW in the laboratory were conducted, and a suite of contaminant responsive markers was assessed in exposed animals. In mussels the markers included chemical contaminant levels, haemocyte lysosomal instability and nucleus integrity, cellular energy allocation, digestive gland and gonad histopathology and shell-opening behaviour. In fish, biliary PAH metabolites and gill histopathology biomarkers were measured. A consistent cause-effect relationship between WW treatments and markers measured in test animals was not found. The results therefore indicate that the WW emission is unlikely to represent a significant stress factor for the local marine environment under the conditions studied.acceptedVersio

Diversity of Tanaidacea (Crustacea: Peracarida) in the World's Oceans – How Far Have We Come?

Tanaidaceans are small peracarid crustaceans which occur in all marine habitats, over the full range of depths, and rarely into fresh waters. Yet they have no obligate dispersive phase in their life-cycle. Populations are thus inevitably isolated, and allopatric speciation and high regional diversity are inevitable; cosmopolitan distributions are considered to be unlikely or non-existent. Options for passive dispersion are discussed. Tanaidaceans appear to have first evolved in shallow waters, the region of greatest diversification of the Apseudomorpha and some tanaidomorph families, while in deeper waters the apseudomorphs have subsequently evolved two or three distinct phyletic lines. The Neotanaidomorpha has evolved separately and diversified globally in deep waters, and the Tanaidomorpha has undergone the greatest evolution, diversification and adaptation, to the point where some of the deep-water taxa are recolonizing shallow waters. Analysis of their geographic distribution shows some level of regional isolation, but suffers from inclusion of polyphyletic taxa and a general lack of data, particularly for deep waters. It is concluded that the diversity of the tanaidomorphs in deeper waters and in certain ocean regions remains to be discovered; that the smaller taxa are largely understudied; and that numerous cryptic species remain to be distinguished. Thus the number of species currently recognized is likely to be an order of magnitude too low, and globally the Tanaidacea potentially rival the Amphipoda and Isopoda in diversity

Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations remain in the predictive capability of ice sheet models. As a consequence, the potential contributions of ice sheets remain the largest source of uncertainty in projecting future SLR. Here, we report the findings of a structured expert judgement study, using unique techniques for modeling correlations between inter- and intra-ice sheet processes and their tail dependences. We find that since the AR5, expert uncertainty has grown, in particular because of uncertain ice dynamic effects. For a +2 °C temperature scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm SLR contribution by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm. For a +5 °C temperature scenario more consistent with unchecked emissions growth, the corresponding values are 51 and 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion of thermal expansion and glacier contributions results in a global total SLR estimate that exceeds 2 m at the 95th percentile. Our findings support the use of scenarios of 21st century global total SLR exceeding 2 m for planning purposes. Beyond 2100, uncertainty and projected SLR increase rapidly. The 95th percentile ice sheet contribution by 2200, for the +5 °C scenario, is 7.5 m as a result of instabilities coming into play in both West and East Antarctica. Introducing process correlations and tail dependences increases estimates by roughly 15%.</p

Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations remain in the predictive capability of ice sheet models. As a consequence, the potential contributions of ice sheets remain the largest source of uncertainty in projecting future SLR. Here, we report the findings of a structured expert judgement study, using unique techniques for modeling correlations between inter- and intra-ice sheet processes and their tail dependences. We find that since the AR5, expert uncertainty has grown, in particular because of uncertain ice dynamic effects. For a +2 °C temperature scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm SLR contribution by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm. For a +5 °C temperature scenario more consistent with unchecked emissions growth, the corresponding values are 51 and 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion of thermal expansion and glacier contributions results in a global total SLR estimate that exceeds 2 m at the 95th percentile. Our findings support the use of scenarios of 21st century global total SLR exceeding 2 m for planning purposes. Beyond 2100, uncertainty and projected SLR increase rapidly. The 95th percentile ice sheet contribution by 2200, for the +5 °C scenario, is 7.5 m as a result of instabilities coming into play in both West and East Antarctica. Introducing process correlations and tail dependences increases estimates by roughly 15%.</p

Formation of a cytoplasmic salt bridge network in the matrix state is a fundamental step in the transport mechanism of the mitochondrial ADP/ATP carrier

Mitochondrial ADP/ATP carriers catalyze the equimolar exchange of ADP and ATP across the mitochondrial inner membrane. Structurally, they consist of three homologous domains with a single substrate binding site. They alternate between a cytoplasmic and matrix state in which the binding site is accessible to these compartments for binding of ADP or ATP. It has been proposed that cycling between states occurs by disruption and formation of a matrix and cytoplasmic salt bridge network in an alternating way, but formation of the latter has not been shown experimentally. Here, we show that state-dependent formation of the cytoplasmic salt bridge network can be demonstrated by measuring the effect of mutations on the thermal stability of detergent-solubilized carriers locked in a specific state. For this purpose, mutations were made to increase or decrease the overall interaction energy of the cytoplasmic network. When locked in the cytoplasmic state by the inhibitor carboxyatractyloside, the thermostabilities of the mutant and wild-type carriers were similar, but when locked in the matrix state by the inhibitor bongkrekic acid, they correlated with the predicted interaction energy of the cytoplasmic network, demonstrating its formation. Changing the interaction energy of the cytoplasmic network also had a profound effect on the kinetics of transport, indicating that formation of the network is a key step in the transport cycle. These results are consistent with a unique alternating access mechanism that involves the simultaneous rotation of the three domains around a central translocation pathway