Rewilding by Wolf Recolonisation, Consequences for Ungulate Populations and Game Hunting

Simple Summary Humans extirpated the wolf Canis lupus from many regions of Europe. Today, the wolf is returning to many of these areas, and with it, people's opposition due to its predatory habits on, among others, ungulate game species. Based on existing data on wolf prey selection, kill rates and territory size, we extrapolated the results from central Sweden and Poland to southern Sweden, where wolf recolonization has not yet occurred and conservation conflicts with hunters are expected. Thus, we calculated the proportion of moose Alces alces, roe deer Capreolus capreolus, red deer Cervus elaphus, fallow deer Dama dama and wild boar Sus scrofa that would be killed by wolves in the municipalities of southern Sweden if wolf recolonization occurs. We found that the current system of five ungulate species in southern Sweden could potentially support a wolf density two to four times higher than in the current wolf distribution in central Sweden, which are mainly inhabited by roe deer and moose. With this type of research, we can anticipate and work to ameliorate the social unrest and expected conservation conflicts that may arise once wolves or other large carnivore species recolonize areas of Europe that are returning to the wild. The ongoing recolonisations of human-transformed environments in Europe by large carnivores like the wolf Canis lupus means that conservation conflicts could re-surface, among other reasons, due to predation on ungulate game species. We estimated the effect of wolves on ungulate species using data on wolf prey selection, kill rates and territory size to build a hypothetical case of future expansion. We extrapolated results on predation from the current wolf distribution in central Sweden and eastern Poland to the eventual wolf recolonisation of southern Sweden. We then calculated the proportion of five ungulate game species killed annually by wolves, and the ratio between the predicted annual predation by wolves given future colonization and the number of ungulates currently harvested by hunters. Results showed that wolf recolonization in southern Sweden would have a minor impact on the estimated population densities of red deer Cervus elaphus, fallow deer Dama dama and wild boar Sus scrofa, but is likely to lead to a significant reduction in human captures of moose Alces alces and roe deer Capreolus capreolus. The current five-ungulate species system in southern Sweden suggests a potential for two to four times higher wolf density than the two-ungulate species system in the northern part of their current distribution. Management and conservation of recolonizing large carnivores require a better understanding of the observed impact on game populations under similar ecological conditions to ameliorate conservation conflicts and achieve a paradigm of coexistence. Integrating these predictions into management is paramount to the current rewilding trend occurring in many areas of Europe or North America

Intraguild Predation by the Eagle Owl Determines the Space Use of a Mesopredator Carnivore

Top predators shape the communities of sympatric predators by killing and displacing smaller predators. Predation risk pushes smaller predators to select enemy-free spaces irrespective of food availability, which results in changes in their behaviour, space use, distribution, and abundance. Although the landscape of fear dynamics are known for top predators such as the eagle owl and its impact on smaller raptors, the effect of the presence and abundance of the eagle owl on the space use of mesopredator carnivores remains poorly understood. Here, we studied this effect on the space use of the stone marten in a Mediterranean ecosystem where it shares rabbits as main prey with the eagle owl. We also accounted for the presence of another sympatric carnivore, the red fox. Using a multi-model inference, we found stone martens avoided areas with a higher abundance of eagle owls and rabbits, which suggested a hyperpredation process and a cognitive association by stone martens between rabbit hotspots and owl presence. We found a positive relationship between the space use of the red fox and the stone marten, which suggested foxes behaved as competitors and not predators of martens. Understanding intraguild predation can assist the conservation and management of predators and their prey

Agent-based models predict patterns and identify constraints of large carnivore recolonizations, a case study of wolves in Scandinavia

Large carnivores are recolonizing areas of their historical range in Europe. This process has strong implications for conservation and management related to human-wildlife conflicts. Analyses and modelling of the observed mechanisms of spatial expansion can predict recolonization patterns under human influences. We demonstrate how spatially-explicit, agent-based models can assist to identify and predict how humans impact shape large carnivore recolonizations. Using detailed data obtained through long-term surveillance of wolf territories, we identified the mechanisms of recolonization and predicted the spatio-temporal patterns of expansion of the wolf in the Scandinavian Peninsula. We disentangled the observed mechanisms of expansion to develop WOLVES (Wolf Virtual Expansion Simulator), an agent-based model software. We applied the model to investigate in silico the observed lack of wolf recolonization into the suitable but densely human-populated area of southern Sweden and projected the expansion into the future. We tested the impact of traffic barriers and territory termination (wolf mortality most likely due to culling and poaching) on the observed recolonization in the south. Simulations identified that traffic infrastructures impacted only at configurations of insurmountable barriers unlikely to occur in Scandinavia, while low rates of territory termination had a major impact on the recolonization. Simulating until 2030 predicts that wolves will not colonize southern Sweden, which highlights the complexities of this process in areas of increased human-influence. The capability of simulators to test hypotheses and discriminate constraints of future population development makes them a valuable tool for ecologists, managers, and decision-makers involved in regional and transboundary conservation challenges of large carnivore recolonizations

Ranging behaviour and habitat use in Montagu's Harrier Circus pygargus in extensive farmland of Eastern Poland

Agriculture intensification drives changes in bird populations but also in the space use by farmland species. Agriculture in Eastern Europe still follows an extensive farming model, but due to policy shifts aimed at rural restructuring and implementation of government subsidies for farmers, it is being rapidly intensified. Here, we aimed to document the ranging behaviour and habitat use of a declining farmland bird of prey-Montagu's Harrier-and to compare it to findings from Western Europe. In 2011-2018, 50 individuals were followed with GPS loggers in Eastern Poland to study species spatial ecology. We found home ranges (kernel 90%) to be considerably large: 67.3 (+/- 42.3) km(2) in case of males, but only 4.9 (+/- 6.1) km(2) in females. Home ranges overlapped by 40%, on average, with other males in colonies and by 61%, on average, between consecutive breeding seasons of a particular male. The average daily distance travelled by males and females reached, respectively, 94.5 and 45.3 km, covering a daily home range of 32.3 and 3.1 km(2). Individuals foraged up to 35 km from nests (3.5 km on average). Daily distance travelled and daily home ranges varied across the breeding season, in case of females being shortest in July, but sharply increasing in August. Also, individuals with breeding success had higher daily distance travelled but smaller daily home ranges. Average harriers' distance to nest was generally increasing over the season, but was also changing over time of day: birds were closest to nest during night time, but at the end of the season, males roosted up to 16 km from the nest. While foraging males slightly preferred grasslands, higher elevation and smaller land-use patches, they avoided slopes and proximity of roads. We conclude that the surprisingly large home ranges of breeding harriers may suggest reduced prey availability or high fragmentation of hunting areas, both driving birds to utilise large areas and potentially contributing to population decline

Action A3 : analysis of spatial connectivity and preparation of environmental impact assessment guidelines : prepared within A3 action of LIFE DINALP BEAR Project (LIFE13 NAT/SI/0005)

As for other large carnivores in Europe, the brown bear shows a trend of recovering under different management scenarios. However, this recovery comes with specific biological and conservation requirements at individual and population levels often followed by conflicts in a highly humanized continent. To foresee conflicts with humans and to facilitate decisionmaking, spatially-explicit research is required to identify potential habitats and the connectivity of fragmented bear populations. First, we conducted multiscale modeling based on scale-integrated resource selection functions (SRSFs) to identify drivers shaping the spaceuse of three bear populations/demographic units (Trentino-Swiss, pre-Alps, and Dinaric), and across 3 scales of space (population distribution, home range establishment, and use of individual home range). Secondly, we also conducted an analysis of the connectivity patterns of suitable habitat patches (nodes) to identify the potential importance of each node to contribute to individual mobility, survival, and population connectivity. Lastly, to support further environmental impact assessment analyses, we identified the most plausible least-cost paths connecting different areas of the same large patch with itself and surrounding patches. Using topographic, landcover, and anthropogenic predictors, our analytical approach transcended from scale dependence bias to produce a predictive map on habitat suitability while delivered information on habitat selection trends for each population. Bears mostly selected forest habitats in all the populationshowever, habitat selection differed for the other variables among populations and scales, especially in the Trentino area where the species selected the most intricate topography. Predictive maps revealed a broad range of suitable but fragmented patches of bear habitat. The largest and most important patches for connectivity occurred in the current distribution range of the species, with the most suitable habitat lying in the pre-Alpine and Dinaric populations. Connecting viable patches to host female homeranges is possible through stepping-stone patches of corridors reachable within the estimated dispersal distance of females. Unified transnational decision-making is required for the conservation of stepping-stone patches, facilitate bear mobility, and ultimately connect bear populations.Podobno kot pri drugih vrstah velikih zveri se tudi pri rjavemu medvedu njegovo območje razširjenosti in številčnost povečujeta v več delih Evrope, in to ob različnih upravljavskih pristopih. Vendar uspešno širjenje vrste vselej zahteva specifične biološke in varstvene pogoje na individualni in populacijski ravni. V gosto poseljeni Evropi širjenje medveda pogosto spremljajo tudi konflikti s človekom. Za pravočasno napovedovanje in racionalno preprečevanje konfliktnih situacij s človekom in s tem lajšanja procesa odločanja so ključne zanesljive prostorske raziskave. Te nam omogočajo prepoznavanje potencialnih habitatov za medveda in območij/koridorjev, ki so ključna za ohranjanje povezljivosti populacije. V prvi fazi pričujoče raziskave smo zato izvedli večstopenjsko hierarhično prostorsko eksplicitno napovedno modeliranje habitatne ustreznosti prostora (scale integrated RSF), s katerim smo lahko prepoznali glavne omejitvene dejavnike rabe prostora za tri obravnavane medvedje populacije oz demografske enote (Trentino-Švicarske, pred-Alpska in Dinarska) na treh prostorskih nivojih (populacijski nivo, nivo območja aktivnosti in nivo notranje rabe znotraj območij aktivnosti). Izvedli smo tudi analizo povezljivosti prostora med osnovnimi zaplatami habitata in opredelili prispevek vsake zaplate k %vitalnosti% celotne medvedje populacije v raziskovalnem območju. Končno smo z namenom lažjega prepoznavanja potreb po prihodnjih presojah vplivov posegov na okolje (PVO) opredelili še najbolj verjetne prehode med habitatnimi krpami (least-cost paths). Na osnovi napovednih spremenljivk, ki opisujejo rabo tal, reliefne značilnosti in prisotnost človeka (npr. ceste, naselja) smo pripravili modele habitatne ustreznosti prostora za medveda in prepoznali tudi razlike v habitatnem izboru med 3 obravnavanimi populacijami in prostorskimi merili. V vseh treh populacijah so medvedi primarno izbirali gozdnata območja, so pa med populacijami in prostorskimi merili opazne razlike v rabi/pomenu ostalih okoljskih spremenljivk. Zlasti odstopa skupina medvedov v Trentinu, za katere je značilna izbira bolj nedostopnih območij (težji, topografsko bolj razgiban teren). Naš prostorsko eksplicitni model kaže, da je v obravnavanem območju veliko habitata, ki je primeren za medveda, vendar pa je zanj značilna močna fragmentiranost. Največje in najbolj pomembne zaplate habitata za povezljivost populacije se nahajajo na območju trenutne razširjenosti vrste, z najbolj primernim habitatom na območju pred-Alpske in Dinarske populacije. Zadostno povezanost najprimernejših zaplat (ki so dovolj velike, da v njih lahko žive samice % medvedke), bi bilo mogoče vzdrževati preko ohranjanja dovolj povezanih habitatnih krp v koridorjih (step-stones). Za ohranjanje zadostne povezanosti prostora/habitatov, zagotavljanja povezav med deli populacij in populacijami medvedov ter za dolgoročno viabilnost medveda v območju Alp in Dinaridov je ključna poenotena % med državami usklajena - politika odločanja in rabe prostora

Hyperoxemia and excess oxygen use in early acute respiratory distress syndrome : Insights from the LUNG SAFE study

Publisher Copyright: © 2020 The Author(s). Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.Background: Concerns exist regarding the prevalence and impact of unnecessary oxygen use in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We examined this issue in patients with ARDS enrolled in the Large observational study to UNderstand the Global impact of Severe Acute respiratory FailurE (LUNG SAFE) study. Methods: In this secondary analysis of the LUNG SAFE study, we wished to determine the prevalence and the outcomes associated with hyperoxemia on day 1, sustained hyperoxemia, and excessive oxygen use in patients with early ARDS. Patients who fulfilled criteria of ARDS on day 1 and day 2 of acute hypoxemic respiratory failure were categorized based on the presence of hyperoxemia (PaO2 > 100 mmHg) on day 1, sustained (i.e., present on day 1 and day 2) hyperoxemia, or excessive oxygen use (FIO2 ≥ 0.60 during hyperoxemia). Results: Of 2005 patients that met the inclusion criteria, 131 (6.5%) were hypoxemic (PaO2 < 55 mmHg), 607 (30%) had hyperoxemia on day 1, and 250 (12%) had sustained hyperoxemia. Excess FIO2 use occurred in 400 (66%) out of 607 patients with hyperoxemia. Excess FIO2 use decreased from day 1 to day 2 of ARDS, with most hyperoxemic patients on day 2 receiving relatively low FIO2. Multivariate analyses found no independent relationship between day 1 hyperoxemia, sustained hyperoxemia, or excess FIO2 use and adverse clinical outcomes. Mortality was 42% in patients with excess FIO2 use, compared to 39% in a propensity-matched sample of normoxemic (PaO2 55-100 mmHg) patients (P = 0.47). Conclusions: Hyperoxemia and excess oxygen use are both prevalent in early ARDS but are most often non-sustained. No relationship was found between hyperoxemia or excessive oxygen use and patient outcome in this cohort. Trial registration: LUNG-SAFE is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02010073publishersversionPeer reviewe

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat

Correction to: Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat

Rewilding by Wolf Recolonisation, Consequences for Ungulate Populations and Game Hunting

The ongoing recolonizations of human-transformed environments in Europe by large carnivores like the wolf Canis lupus means that conservation conflicts could re-surface, among other reasons, due to predation on ungulate game species. We estimated the effect of wolves on ungulate species using data on wolf prey selection, kill rates and territory size to build a hypothetical case of future expansion. We extrapolated results on predation from the current wolf distribution in central Sweden and eastern Poland to the eventual wolf recolonization of southern Sweden. We then calculated the proportion of five ungulate game species killed annually by wolves, and the ratio between the predicted annual predation by wolves given future colonization and the number of ungulates currently harvested by hunters. Results showed that wolf recolonization in southern Sweden would have a minor impact on the estimated population densities of red deer Cervus elaphus, fallow deer Dama dama and wild boar Sus scrofa, but is likely to lead to a significant reduction in human captures of moose Alces alces and roe deer Capreolus capreolus. The current five-ungulate species system in southern Sweden suggests a potential for two to four times higher wolf density than the two-ungulate species system in the northern part of their current distribution. Management and conservation of recolonizing large carnivores require a better understanding of the observed impact on game populations under similar ecological conditions to ameliorate conservation conflicts and achieve a paradigm of coexistence. Integrating these predictions into management is paramount to the current rewilding trend occurring in many areas of Europe or North America