THE ROLE OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN MANAGING RISK

Risk and Uncertainty,

Realfast: Real-Time, Commensal Fast Transient Surveys with the Very Large Array

Radio interferometers have the ability to precisely localize and better characterize the properties of sources. This ability is having a powerful impact on the study of fast radio transients, where a few milliseconds of data is enough to pinpoint a source at cosmological distances. However, recording interferometric data at millisecond cadence produces a terabyte-per-hour data stream that strains networks, computing systems, and archives. This challenge mirrors that of other domains of science, where the science scope is limited by the computational architecture as much as the physical processes at play. Here, we present a solution to this problem in the context of radio transients: realfast, a commensal, fast transient search system at the Jansky Very Large Array. Realfast uses a novel architecture to distribute fast-sampled interferometric data to a 32-node, 64-GPU cluster for real-time imaging and transient detection. By detecting transients in situ, we can trigger the recording of data for those rare, brief instants when the event occurs and reduce the recorded data volume by a factor of 1000. This makes it possible to commensally search a data stream that would otherwise be impossible to record. This system will search for millisecond transients in more than 1000 hours of data per year, potentially localizing several Fast Radio Bursts, pulsars, and other sources of impulsive radio emission. We describe the science scope for realfast, the system design, expected outcomes, and ways real-time analysis can help in other fields of astrophysics.Comment: Accepted to ApJS Special Issue on Data; 11 pages, 4 figure

On the complexity of the Saccharomyces bayanus taxon: hybridization and potential hybrid speciation

Although the genus Saccharomyces has been thoroughly studied, some species in the genus has not yet been accurately resolved; an example is S. bayanus, a taxon that includes genetically diverse lineages of pure and hybrid strains. This diversity makes the assignation and classification of strains belonging to this species unclear and controversial. They have been subdivided by some authors into two varieties (bayanus and uvarum), which have been raised to the species level by others. In this work, we evaluate the complexity of 46 different strains included in the S. bayanus taxon by means of PCR-RFLP analysis and by sequencing of 34 gene regions and one mitochondrial gene. Using the sequence data, and based on the S. bayanus var. bayanus reference strain NBRC 1948, a hypothetical pure S. bayanus was reconstructed for these genes that showed alleles with similarity values lower than 97% with the S. bayanus var. uvarum strain CBS 7001, and of 99¿100% with the non S. cerevisiae portion in S. pastorianus Weihenstephan 34/70 and with the new species S. eubayanus. Among the S. bayanus strains under study, different levels of homozygosity, hybridization and introgression were found; however, no pure S. bayanus var. bayanus strain was identified. These S. bayanus hybrids can be classified into two types: homozygous (type I) and heterozygous hybrids (type II), indicating that they have been originated by different hybridization processes. Therefore, a putative evolutionary scenario involving two different hybridization events between a S. bayanus var. uvarum and unknown European S. eubayanus-like strains can be postulated to explain the genomic diversity observed in our S. bayanus var. bayanus strains

Phase II study of two dose schedules of C.E.R.A. (Continuous Erythropoietin Receptor Activator) in anemic patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) receiving chemotherapy

BACKGROUND: C.E.R.A. (Continuous Erythropoietin Receptor Activator) is an innovative agent with unique erythropoietin receptor activity and prolonged half-life. This study evaluated C.E.R.A. once weekly (QW) or once every 3 weeks (Q3W) in patients with anemia and advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) receiving chemotherapy. METHODS: In this Phase II, randomized, open-label, multicenter, dose-finding study, patients (n = 218) with Stage IIIB or IV NSCLC and hemoglobin (Hb) ≤ 11 g/dL were randomized to one of six treatment groups of C.E.R.A. administered subcutaneously for 12 weeks: 0.7, 1.4, or 2.1 μg/kg QW or 2.1, 4.2, or 6.3 μg/kg Q3W. Primary endpoint was average Hb level between baseline and end of initial treatment (defined as last Hb measurement before dose reduction or transfusion, or the value at week 13). Hematopoietic response (Hb increase ≥ 2 g/dL or achievement of Hb ≥ 12 g/dL with no blood transfusion in the previous 28 days determined in two consecutive measurements within a 10-day interval) was also measured. RESULTS: Dose-dependent Hb increases were observed, although the magnitude of increase was moderate. Hematopoietic response rate was also dose dependent, achieved by 51% and 62% of patients in the 4.2 and 6.3 μg/kg Q3W groups, and 63% of the 2.1 μg/kg QW group. In the Q3W group, the proportion of early responders (defined as ≥ 1 g/dL increase in Hb from baseline during the first 22 days) increased with increasing C.E.R.A. dose, reaching 41% with the highest dose. In the 6.3 μg/kg Q3W group, 15% of patients received blood transfusion. There was an inclination for higher mean Hb increases and lower transfusion use in the Q3W groups than in the QW groups. C.E.R.A. was generally well tolerated. CONCLUSION: C.E.R.A. administered QW or Q3W showed clinical activity and safety in patients with NSCLC. There were dose-dependent increases in Hb responses. C.E.R.A. appeared to be more effective when the same dose over time was given Q3W than QW, with a suggestion that C.E.R.A. 6.3 μg/kg Q3W provided best efficacy in this study. However, further dose-finding studies using higher doses are required to determine the optimal C.E.R.A. dose regimen in cancer patients receiving chemotherapy

Measuring HERA's Primary Beam in Situ: Methodology and First Results

The central challenge in 21 cm cosmology is isolating the cosmological signal from bright foregrounds. Many separation techniques rely on the accurate knowledge of the sky and the instrumental response, including the antenna primary beam. For drift-scan telescopes, such as the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA), that do not move, primary beam characterization is particularly challenging because standard beam-calibration routines do not apply (Cornwell et al.) and current techniques require accurate source catalogs at the telescope resolution. We present an extension of the method from Pober et al. where they use beam symmetries to create a network of overlapping source tracks that break the degeneracy between source flux density and beam response and allow their simultaneous estimation. We fit the beam response of our instrument using early HERA observations and find that our results agree well with electromagnetic simulations down to a -20 dB level in power relative to peak gain for sources with high signal-to-noise ratio. In addition, we construct a source catalog with 90 sources down to a flux density of 1.4 Jy at 151 MHz.The central challenge in 21 cm cosmology is isolating the cosmological signal from bright foregrounds. Many separation techniques rely on the accurate knowledge of the sky and the instrumental response, including the antenna primary beam. For drift-scan telescopes, such as the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA), that do not move, primary beam characterization is particularly challenging because standard beam-calibration routines do not apply (Cornwell et al.) and current techniques require accurate source catalogs at the telescope resolution. We present an extension of the method from Pober et al. where they use beam symmetries to create a network of overlapping source tracks that break the degeneracy between source flux density and beam response and allow their simultaneous estimation. We fit the beam response of our instrument using early HERA observations and find that our results agree well with electromagnetic simulations down to a -20 dB level in power relative to peak gain for sources with high signal-to-noise ratio. In addition, we construct a source catalog with 90 sources down to a flux density of 1.4 Jy at 151 MHz

Optimizing sparse RFI prediction using deep learning

Radio frequency interference (RFI) is an ever-present limiting factor among radio telescopes even in the most remote observing locations. When looking to retain the maximum amount of sensitivity and reduce contamination for Epoch of Reionization studies, the identification and removal of RFI is especially important. In addition to improved RFI identification, we must also take into account computational efficiency of the RFI-Identification algorithm as radio interferometer arrays such as the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) grow larger in number of receivers. To address this, we present a deep fully convolutional neural network (DFCN) that is comprehensive in its use of interferometric data, where both amplitude and phase information are used jointly for identifying RFI. We train the network using simulated HERA visibilities containing mock RFI, yielding a known \u2018ground truth\u2019 data set for evaluating the accuracy of various RFI algorithms. Evaluation of the DFCN model is performed on observations from the 67 dish build-out, HERA-67, and achieves a data throughput of 1.6 7 105 HERA time-ordered 1024 channelled visibilities per hour per GPU. We determine that relative to an amplitude only network including visibility phase adds important adjacent time\u2013frequency context which increases discrimination between RFI and non-RFI. The inclusion of phase when predicting achieves a recall of 0.81, precision of 0.58, and F2 score of 0.75 as applied to our HERA-67 observations

Detection of cosmic structures using the bispectrum phase. II. First results from application to cosmic reionization using the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array

Characterizing the epoch of reionization (EoR) at $z\gtrsim 6$ via the redshifted 21 cm line of neutral Hydrogen (HI) is critical to modern astrophysics and cosmology, and thus a key science goal of many current and planned low-frequency radio telescopes. The primary challenge to detecting this signal is the overwhelmingly bright foreground emission at these frequencies, placing stringent requirements on the knowledge of the instruments and inaccuracies in analyses. Results from these experiments have largely been limited not by thermal sensitivity but by systematics, particularly caused by the inability to calibrate the instrument to high accuracy. The interferometric bispectrum phase is immune to antenna-based calibration and errors therein, and presents an independent alternative to detect the EoR HI fluctuations while largely avoiding calibration systematics. Here, we provide a demonstration of this technique on a subset of data from the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) to place approximate constraints on the IGM brightness temperature. From this limited data, at $z=7.7$ we infer "$1\sigma$" upper limits on the IGM brightness temperature to be $\le 316$ "pseudo" mK at $\kappa_\parallel=0.33\,\textrm{"pseudo"}\,h$ Mpc$^{-1}$ (data-limited) and $\le 1000$ "pseudo" mK at $\kappa_\parallel=0.875\,\textrm{"pseudo"}\,h$ Mpc$^{-1}$ (noise-limited). The "pseudo" units denote only an approximate and not an exact correspondence to the actual distance scales and brightness temperatures. By propagating models in parallel to the data analysis, we confirm that the dynamic range required to separate the cosmic HI signal from the foregrounds is similar to that in standard approaches, and the power spectrum of the bispectrum phase is still data-limited (at $\gtrsim 10^6$ dynamic range) indicating scope for further improvement in sensitivity as the array build-out continues