Working group on nowcasting and mesoscale research

Presentación realizada en la 3rd European Nowcasting Conference, celebrada en la sede central de AEMET en Madrid del 24 al 26 de abril de 2019

Dynamics of real labour productivity and real compensation in Latvia

Relationship between labour productivity and wages is an important issue not only for economists, but also for policy makers. In the last decades, we have witnessed that in the EU15 wage growth has been lagging productivity growth. At the same time in Latvia, also in some other central and eastern European member states, wages increased more than productivity, rising concerns about disbalance in the economy. However, comparison of wage level and productivity level in Latvia and respective levels in the EU15 shows that wage level in Latvia is much below the EU15 average value in absolute terms, but also in relation to productivity level. To understand whether dissimilarities in wage and productivity development are dangerous for Latvia's economy, it is worth looking at the situation in different economic sectors, as well as make comparisons with other EU countries. The aim of the paper is to investigate the dynamics of real labour productivity and real compensation in Latvia in different economic sectors and compare with the other EU member states. The empirical analysis was conducted with comparative analysis and panel data regressions for the period from 2000 until 2017. For robustness checks, different alternative specifications compared. Our results confirm significant linkage between real labour productivity and real compensation, but not one-to-one, and the gap persists. The gap between these two variables depends on cyclical conditions, the different economic sector with their specifics, the Russian sanctions and labour market structure. The finding of the study is a necessary input for the further microanalysis of the industry which would lead to better policy-making regarding productivity improvements in Latvia

Dynamics of real labour productivity and real compensation in Latvia

Relationship between labour productivity and wages is an important issue not only for economists, but also for policy makers. In the last decades, we have witnessed that in the EU15 wage growth has been lagging productivity growth. At the same time in Latvia, also in some other central and eastern European member states, wages increased more than productivity, rising concerns about disbalance in the economy. However, comparison of wage level and productivity level in Latvia and respective levels in the EU15 shows that wage level in Latvia is much below the EU15 average value in absolute terms, but also in relation to productivity level. To understand whether dissimilarities in wage and productivity development are dangerous for Latvia's economy, it is worth looking at the situation in different economic sectors, as well as make comparisons with other EU countries. The aim of the paper is to investigate the dynamics of real labour productivity and real compensation in Latvia in different economic sectors and compare with the other EU member states. The empirical analysis was conducted with comparative analysis and panel data regressions for the period from 2000 until 2017. For robustness checks, different alternative specifications compared. Our results confirm significant linkage between real labour productivity and real compensation, but not one-to-one, and the gap persists. The gap between these two variables depends on cyclical conditions, the different economic sector with their specifics, the Russian sanctions and labour market structure. The finding of the study is a necessary input for the further microanalysis of the industry which would lead to better policy-making regarding productivity improvements in Latvia

Lateglacial and Holocene climate and environmental change in the northeastern Mediterranean region: Diatom evidence from Lake Dojran (Republic of Macedonia/Greece)

The juncture between the west-east and north-south contrasting Holocene climatic domains across the Mediterranean is complex and poorly understood. Diatom analysis of Lake Dojran (Republic of Macedonia/Greece) provides a new insight into lake levels and trophic status during the Lateglacial and Holocene periods in the northeastern Mediterranean. Following a very shallow or even desiccated state at the core base at ca. 12,500 cal yr BP, indicated by sedimentological and hydro-acoustic data, diatoms indicate lake infilling, from a shallow state with abundant benthos to a plankton-dominated relatively high lake level and eutrophic state thereafter. Diatom-inferred shallowing between ca. 12,400 - 12,000 cal yr BP and a very low lake level and eutrophic, oligosaline state between ca. 12,000 - 11,500 cal yr BP provide strong evidence for Younger Dryas aridity. The earliest Holocene (ca. 11,500 - 10,700 cal yr BP) was characterised by a high lake level, followed by a lake-level reduction and increased trophic level between ca. 10,700-8,500 cal yr BP. The lake was relatively deep and exhibited peak Holocene trophic level between ca. 8,500-3,000 cal yr BP, becoming shallow thereafter. The diatom data provide more robust evidence and strengthen previous lake-level interpretation based on sedimentological and geochemical data during the earliest, mid and late Holocene, and also clarify previous uncertainty in interpretation of Lateglacial and early-Holocene lake-level change. Our results are also important in disentangling regional climate effects from local catchment dynamics during the Holocene, and to this end we exploit extant regional palynological evidence for vegetation change in the highlands and lowlands. The importance of seasonality in driving Holocene climate change is assessed by reference to the summer and winter latitudinal temperature gradient (LTG) model of Davis and Brewer (2009). We suggest that increased precipitation drove the high lake level during the earliest Holocene. The early- Holocene low lake level and relatively high trophic state may result climatically from high seasonality of precipitation and locally from limited, nutrient-rich catchment runoff. We argue that the mid- Holocene relatively deep and eutrophic state was driven mainly by local vegetation succession and associated changes in catchment processes, rather than showing a close relationship to climate change. The late-Holocene shallow state may have been influenced by a temperature-induced increase in evaporative concentration, but was coupled with clear evidence for intensified human impact. This study improves understanding of Lateglacial and Holocene climate change in the northeastern Mediterranean, suggests the important role of the LTG on moisture availability during the Holocene, and clarifies the influence of catchment processes on palaeohydrology

A Plasmid-Transposon Hybrid Mutagenesis System Effective in a Broad Range of Enterobacteria.

Random transposon mutagenesis is a powerful technique used to generate libraries of genetic insertions in many different bacterial strains. Here we develop a system facilitating random transposon mutagenesis in a range of different Gram-negative bacterial strains, including Pectobacterium atrosepticum, Citrobacter rodentium, Serratia sp. ATCC39006, Serratia plymuthica, Dickeya dadantii, and many more. Transposon mutagenesis was optimized in each of these strains and three studies are presented to show the efficacy of this system. Firstly, the important agricultural pathogen D. dadantii was mutagenized. Two mutants that showed reduced protease production and one mutant producing the previously cryptic pigment, indigoidine, were identified and characterized. Secondly, the enterobacterium, Serratia sp. ATCC39006 was mutagenized and mutants incapable of producing gas vesicles, proteinaceous intracellular organelles, were identified. One of these contained a β-galactosidase transcriptional fusion within the gene gvpA1, essential for gas vesicle production. Finally, the system was used to mutate the biosynthetic gene clusters of the antifungal, anti-oomycete and anticancer polyketide, oocydin A, in the plant-associated enterobacterium, Dickeya solani MK10. The mutagenesis system was developed to allow easy identification of transposon insertion sites by sequencing, after facile generation of a replicon encompassing the transposon and adjacent DNA, post-excision. Furthermore, the system can also create transcriptional fusions with either β-galactosidase or β-glucuronidase as reporters, and exploits a variety of drug resistance markers so that multiple selectable fusions can be generated in a single strain. This system of various transposons has wide utility and can be combined in many different ways.The authors would like to acknowledge several funding sources. D. Smith was supported by a PhD studentship from the BBSRC. Work in the MW lab is supported by the BBSRC (grants BB/G015171/1 and BB/M019411/1). K. Roberts was funded by an MRC studentship. R. Monson and the Salmond lab were supported by grants from the BBSRC (Grant No Provisional BB/K001833/1). M.A. Matilla was supported by the EU Marie-Curie Intra-European Fellowship for Career Development (FP7-PEOPLE-2011-IEF), grant number 298003. B. Richardson was supported by a Harry Smith vacation studentship from the SGM, UK. The authors would also like to thank Ray Chai for careful reading and comments on this manuscript. Alison Drew provided technical support. Work with plant pathogens was carried out under DEFRA licence No. 50864/197900/1.This is the final version of the article. It was first available from Frontiers via http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2015.0144

Chronic NCD care in crises: A qualitative study of global experts' perspectives on models of care for hypertension and diabetes in humanitarian settings.

Background: The high and rising global burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is reflected among crisis-affected populations. People living with NCDs are especially vulnerable in humanitarian crises. Limited guidance exists to support humanitarian actors in designing effective models of NCD care for crisis-affected populations in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We aimed to synthesise expert opinion on current care models for hypertension and diabetes (HTN/DM) in humanitarian settings in LMICs, to examine the gaps in delivering good quality HTN/DM care and to propose solutions to address these gaps. Methods: We interviewed twenty global experts, purposively selected based on their expertise in provision of NCD care in humanitarian settings. Data were analysed using a combination of inductive and deductive methods. We used a conceptual framework for primary care models for HTN/DM in humanitarian settings, guided by the WHO health systems model, patient-centred care models and literature on NCD care in LMICs. Results: HTN/DM care model design was highly dependent on the type of humanitarian crisis, the implementing organisation, the target population, the underlying health system readiness to deal with NCDs and its resilience in the face of crisis. Current models were mainly based at primary-care level, in prolonged crisis settings. Participants focussed on the basic building blocks of care, including training the workforce, and strengthening supply chains and information systems. Intermediate health system goals (responsiveness, quality and safety) and final goals received less attention. There were notable gaps in standardisation and continuity of care, integration with host systems, and coordination with other actors. Participants recommended a health system strengthening approach and aspired to providing patient-centred care. However, more evidence on effective integration and on patients' priorities and experience is needed. More funding is needed for NCD care and related research. Conclusions: Comprehensive guidance would foster standardization, continuity, integration and, thus, better quality care. Future models should take a health system strengthening approach, use patient-centred design, and should be co-created with patients and providers. Those designing new models may draw on lessons learned from existing chronic care models in high- and low-income settings

MicroRNA-142 Critically Regulates Group 2 Innate Lymphoid Cell Homeostasis and Function

Innate lymphoid cells are central to the regulation of immunity at mucosal barrier sites, with group 2 innate lymphoid cells (ILC2s) being particularly important in type 2 immunity. In this study, we demonstrate that microRNA(miR)-142 plays a critical, cell-intrinsic role in the homeostasis and function of ILC2s. Mice deficient for miR-142 expression demonstrate an ILC2 progenitor_biased development in the bone marrow, and along with peripheral ILC2s at mucosal sites, these cells display a greatly altered phenotype based on surface marker expression. ILC2 proliferative and effector functions are severely dysfunctional following Nippostrongylus brasiliensis infection, revealing a critical role for miR-142 isoforms in ILC2-mediated immune responses. Mechanistically, Socs1 and Gfi1 expression are regulated by miR-142 isoforms in ILC2s, impacting ILC2 phenotypes as well as the proliferative and effector capacity of these cells. The identification of these novel pathways opens potential new avenues to modulate ILC2-dependent immune functions

Emerging Evidence and Treatment Perspectives from Randomized Clinical Trials in Systemic Sclerosis: Focus on Interstitial Lung Disease

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a complex rare autoimmune disease with heterogeneous clinical manifestations. Currently, interstitial lung disease (ILD) and cardiac involvement (including pulmonary arterial hypertension) are recognized as the leading causes of SSc-associated mortality. New molecular targets have been discovered and phase II and phase III clinical trials published in the last 5 years on SSc-ILD will be discussed in this review. Details on the study design; the drug tested and its dose; the inclusion and exclusion criteria of the study; the concomitant immunosuppression; the outcomes and the duration of the study were reviewed. The two most common drugs used for the treatment of SSc-ILD are cyclophosphamide and mycophenolate mofetil, both supported by randomized controlled trials. Additional drugs, such as nintedanib and tocilizumab, have been approved to slow pulmonary function decline in SSc-ILD. In this review, we discuss the therapeutic alternatives for SSc management, offering the option to customize the design of future studies to stratify SSc patients and provide a patient-specific treatment according to the new emerging pathogenic features of SSc-ILD

Feasibility and acceptability of integrated psychological therapy versus treatment as usual for people with bipolar disorder and co-morbid alcohol use:A single blind randomised controlled trial

Background Alcohol use is a common problem in bipolar disorder (BD) and evidence indicates more promising outcomes for alcohol use than other substances. No trials have evaluated individual integrated motivational interviewing and cognitive behaviour therapy (MI-CBT) for problematic alcohol use in BD. We therefore assessed the feasibility and acceptability of a novel MI-CBT intervention for alcohol use in BD. Methods A single blind RCT was conducted to compare MI-CBT plus treatment as usual (TAU) with TAU only. MI-CBT was delivered over 20 sessions with participants followed up at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months post-randomisation. Primary outcomes were the feasibility and acceptability of MI-CBT (recruitment to target, retention to follow-up and therapy, acceptability of therapy and absence of adverse events). We also conducted preliminary analyses of alcohol and mood outcomes (frequency and severity of alcohol use and time to mood relapse). Results 44 participants were recruited with 75% retention to 6 and 12 months follow-up. Therapy participants attended a mean of 17.6 (SD 4.5) sessions. Therapy alliance and treatment fidelity were acceptable. Qualitative interviews indicated the intervention was experienced as collaborative, and helpful, in addressing mood and alcohol issues, although risk of overconfidence following therapy was also identified. Clinical outcomes did not differ between arms at 12 months follow-up. Limitations As a feasibility and acceptability trial any secondary results should be treated with caution. Conclusions Integrated MI-CBT is feasible and acceptable, but lack of clinical impact, albeit in a feasibility study, suggests need for further development. Potential adaptations are discussed

The rice EP3 and OsFBK1 E3 ligases alter plant architecture and flower development, and affect transcript accumulation of microRNA pathway genes and their targets

ERECTA PANICLE 3 (EP3) and ORYZA SATIVA F-BOX KELCH 1 (OsFBK1) proteins share 57% and 54% sequence identity with the Arabidopsis F-box protein HAWAIIAN SKIRT (HWS). Previously we showed that EP3 is a functional orthologue of HWS. Here we demonstrate that OsFBK1 is another functional orthologue of HWS and show the complexity of interaction between EP3 and OsFBK1 genes at different developmental stages of the plant. qRT-PCR expression analyses and studies of EP3-GFP and OsFBK1-RFP promoter reporter lines demonstrate that although EP3 and OsFBK1 expression can be detected in the same tissues some cells exclusively express EP3 or OsFBK1 whilst others co-express both genes. Loss, reduction or gain-of-function lines for EP3 and OsFBK1, show that EP3 and OsFBK1 affect plant architecture, organ size, floral organ number and size, floral morphology, pollen viability, grain size and weight. We have identified the putative orthologue genes of the rice microRNA pathway for ORYZA SATIVA DAWDLE (OsDDL) and ORYZA SATIVA SERRATE (OsSE), and demonstrated that EP3 and OsFBK1 affect their transcript levels as well as those of CROWN ROOT DEFECT 1/ORYZA SATIVA Exportin-5 HASTY (CRD1/OsHST), ORYZA SATIVA DICER-LIKE 1 (OsDCL) and ORYZA SATIVA WEAVY LEAF1 (OsWAF1). We show that EP3 affects OsPri-MIR164, OsNAM1 and OsNAC1 transcript levels. OsNAC1 transcripts are modified by OsFBK1, suggesting two independent regulatory pathways, one via EP3 and OsMIR164 and the other via OsFBK1. Our data propose that EP3 and OsFBK1 conjointly play similar roles in rice to how HWS does in Arabidopsis