Is information enough? User responses to seasonal climate forecasts in Southern Africa

Since the mid-1980s, long-lead climate forecasts have been developed and used to predict the onset of El Niño events and their impact on climate variability. Advances in the observational and theoretical understanding of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have contributed to improved seasonal forecasts, with lead times of up to one year. As the ability to forecast climate variability improves, the potential social and economic applications of forecasts have become an issue of great interest. There is widespread optimism that the availability and dissemination of climate forecasts can provide much-needed information that will inevitably reduce the losses and damages attributed to climate variability. However, this study indicates that it is not only the availability of information that matters, but also the end-users capacity to act upon it. This report discusses user responses to seasonal climate forecasts in southern Africa, with an emphasis on small-scale farmers in Namibia and Tanzania. The study examines if and how farmers received, used, and perceived the forecasts in the 1997/98 agricultural season. The report also includes a summary of a workshop on user responses to seasonal forecasts in southern Africa, organized as part of the larger project. The participants in this workshop discussed some of the bottlenecks and constraints in terms of both forecast dissemination and user responses in various branches of the agricultural sector. A comparison of case studies across southern Africa revealed that there were differences in both dissemination strategies and in the capacity to respond to extreme events. Nevertheless, it was clear that improvements in forecast dissemination coupled with improved capacity to respond to the forecasts could yield net benefits for agricultural production in southern Africa. Case studies in Namibia and Tanzania were undertaken to capture the extent to which seasonal forecasts reached “end users” in the agricultural sector. The responses indicate both the possibilities and limitations related to climate forecasts as a means of reducing rural vulnerability to climate variability. Interviews were also conducted with national and regional agricultural and food security institutions in Namibia, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. Institutions included government agencies, farmer organizations, research institutions, and private companies. Participation in two of the three SARCOF meetings held during the 1997/98 season provided insight into forecast development and dissemination, as well as into the emerging dialog between forecasters and users. The surveys revealed two main trends. First, there is a need to expand dissemination. Second, there is a pressing need to improve capacity for using the forecasts. In terms of dissemination, the surveys showed that less than half of the small-scale farmers interviewed actually received the pre-season forecasts, and fewer heard the mid-season updates. Moreover, what forecasts were received were often confused with other reports stemming from the coincidental occurrence of a very strong El Niño phenomenon. One reason so few small-scale farmers received the forecasts is that they have not been directly targeted as end-users. While dissemination efforts have clearly been inadequate, they do not appear to be as consequential as problems related to the capacity of small-scale farmers to respond to the forecasts. Unless farmers have the ability to correctly interpret the forecasts, and the capacity to take action based upon the information, the forecasts will remain underutilized. Constraints to the capacity to respond to climate forecasts lie in economic and social structures, rather than uniquely in a lack of information. Access to credit, seeds, fertilizers, draft power, and markets shapes the ability of farmers to respond to climate information. In the wake of the 1997/98 El Niño event, there is a need to critically reflect upon the potential benefits of seasonal climate forecasts. Responses to present-day climate variability form the cornerstone for adapting to future climate changes. In anticipation of potential changes in the frequency and/or magnitude of extreme events associated with global climate change, there is clearly a need for improved seasonal forecasts and better information dissemination. Nevertheless, the results of this study caution against a misplaced emphasis on improving the accuracy of forecasts at the expense of increasing the flexibility of farmers to adapt. Instead, the provision of information must be tied to enhanced response or adaptation options. Climate forecasts have the potential to increase food security in southern Africa. However, to realize the full extent of potential benefits, response strategies should be strategically developed alongside dissemination strategies targeted at small-scale farmers. Moreover, this study points to a need to examine how economic changes taking place in southern Africa enhance or constrain this flexibility. Seasonal climate forecasts can serve as more than a tool for emergency management of food aid. Addressing the economic constraints to the use of seasonal climate forecasts could place farmers in a position where they could actually act upon the information. Information alone is not enough, but combined with increased attention to response strategies, seasonal climate forecasts can serve as a valuable tool for farmers in southern Africa.Acknowledgment The authors would like to acknowledge the support and contributions of the many people who assisted us in this project. We are grateful to Arne Dalfelt of the World Bank for helping us to make this project a reality, and for supporting CICERO’s longer-term research on climate change and variability in Africa. We would also like to thank Mike Harrison, Macol Stewart and the participants in the SARCOF meetings for encouraging and facilitating this research. For the field research in Namibia, we would like to express our thanks to Luis de Pisano, Peter Hutchinson, Kintinu Sageus, Gert van Eeden, Dave Cole, Mary Seely, Chris Morry, Franz Oberprieler, John le Roux, Paul Strydom, Barbara de Bruine, Gert Grobler, Ronnie Bornman, Cobus Franken, Pieter Hugo, and the others who took the time to share their views with us on seasonal climate forecasts and their potential use in Namibia. We would also like to thank Fiina Shimaneni, Otto Kamwi, and colleagues at the Multidisciplinary Research Center at the University of Namibia for their assistance with the field surveys. We are grateful to Sylvi Endresen for helping us to coordinate this field research, and to Jürgen Hoffman for his support, assistance, and enthusiasm for the project. The fieldwork in Tanzania would not have been possible without the assistance and cooperation of colleagues at Sokoine University, including Nganga Kihupi and Winifrida Rwamugira. We are also grateful to Bahari Mumali, James Ngana, Burhani Nyenzi, Mr. Kalinga, Juvenal R.L. Kisanga, S.A. Muro, and F.E. Mahua for their generous time. In Zimbabwe, we would like to thank Leonard Unganai, Brad Garanganga, Eliot Vhurumuku, C.H. Matarira, Stephen Crawford, Saskia van Osterhout, Marufu.C. Zinyowera, Sylvester Tsikisayi, Amos Makarau, Mr. Malusalila, Amus Chitambira, Micael Negusse, Roland Keth, and Veronica Mutikana for taking time to discuss the forecasts and their implications with us. We are grateful to the participants in the Dar es Salaam Workshop on User Responses to Seasonal Forecasts in Southern Africa, for sharing their insights and contributing to a productive exchange of research findings and ideas. In addition to the authors and collaborators mentioned above, participants include Anna Bartman, Roger Blench, Louise Bohn, Tharsis Herea, Amin Bakari Iddi, Maynard Lugenja, Jennifer Phillips, Anne Thomson, and Coleen Vogel. Finally, we would like to thank Lynn Nygård, Bård Romstad, and Tone Veiby for editorial assistance with this report

Nucleated red blood cells explain most of the association between DNA methylation and gestational age

Determining if specific cell type(s) are responsible for an association between DNA methylation (DNAm) and a given phenotype is important for understanding the biological mechanisms underlying the association. Our EWAS of gestational age (GA) in 953 newborns from the Norwegian MoBa study identified 13,660 CpGs significantly associated with GA (pBonferroniNucleated red blood cells explain most of the association between DNA methylation and gestational agepublishedVersio

Area deprivation and its association with health in a cross-sectional study: are the results biased by recent migration?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The association between area deprivation and health has mostly been examined in cross-sectional studies or prospective studies with short follow-up. These studies have rarely taken migration into account. This is a possible source of misclassification of exposure, i.e. an unknown number of study participants are attributed an exposure of area deprivation that they may have experienced too short for it to have any influence. The aim of this article was to examine to what extent associations between area deprivation and health outcomes were biased by recent migration.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Based on data from the Oslo Health Study, a cross-sectional study conducted in 2000 in Oslo, Norway, we used six health outcomes (self rated health, mental health, coronary heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, smoking and exercise) and considered migration nine years prior to the study conduct. Migration into Oslo, between the areas of Oslo, and the changes in area deprivation during the period were taken into account. Associations were investigated by multilevel logistic regression analyses.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>After adjustment for individual socio-demographic variables we found significant associations between area deprivation and all health outcomes. Accounting for migration into Oslo and between areas of Oslo did not change these associations much. However, the people who migrated into Oslo were younger and had lower prevalences of unfavourable health outcomes than those who were already living in Oslo. But since they were evenly distributed across the area deprivation quintiles, they had little influence on the associations between area deprivation and health. Evidence of selective migration within Oslo was weak, as both moving up and down in the deprivation hierarchy was associated with significantly worse health than not moving.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We have documented significant associations between area deprivation and health outcomes in Oslo after adjustment for socio-demographic variables in a cross-sectional study. These associations were weakly biased by recent migration. From our results it still appears that migration prior to study conduct may be relevant to investigate even within a relatively short period of time, whereas changes in area deprivation during such a period is of limited interest.</p

Sustainable Urban Systems: Co-design and Framing for Transformation

Rapid urbanisation generates risks and opportunities for sustainable development. Urban policy and decision makers are challenged by the complexity of cities as social–ecological–technical systems. Consequently there is an increasing need for collaborative knowledge development that supports a whole-of-system view, and transformational change at multiple scales. Such holistic urban approaches are rare in practice. A co-design process involving researchers, practitioners and other stakeholders, has progressed such an approach in the Australian context, aiming to also contribute to international knowledge development and sharing. This process has generated three outputs: (1) a shared framework to support more systematic knowledge development and use, (2) identification of barriers that create a gap between stated urban goals and actual practice, and (3) identification of strategic focal areas to address this gap. Developing integrated strategies at broader urban scales is seen as the most pressing need. The knowledge framework adopts a systems perspective that incorporates the many urban trade-offs and synergies revealed by a systems view. Broader implications are drawn for policy and decision makers, for researchers and for a shared forward agenda

Modelling human choices: MADeM and decision‑making

Research supported by FAPESP 2015/50122-0 and DFG-GRTK 1740/2. RP and AR are also part of the Research, Innovation and Dissemination Center for Neuromathematics FAPESP grant (2013/07699-0). RP is supported by a FAPESP scholarship (2013/25667-8). ACR is partially supported by a CNPq fellowship (grant 306251/2014-0)

El-sykkel som utvidelsesteknologi

Nasjonale myndigheter har signalisert at bilbruk og klimagassutslipp skal reduseres, og at byene skal utvikles til å bli mer attraktive og levende. På den ene siden har bilen bundet landet sammen og gitt innbyggerne en stor grad av fleksibilitet til å dra dit de vil. På den andre siden har bilen også hatt problematiske konsekvenser for norsk by- og tettstedsutvikling. For å gjøre noe med klimagassutslippene som bilen forårsaker, må det tas noen veivalg for å fremme bærekraftige mobilitetsløsninger. Mobilitet er både en nødvendighet og et gode. Det gir enkeltmennesker bevegelsesfrihet og økt livskvalitet. For å opprettholde den fleksibiliteten som bilen har gitt, må behovet for mobilitet ivaretas med andre transportalternativer som kan forflytte innbyggerne raskt, bærekraftig og komfortabelt. Det er strengt tatt to måter å møte disse utfordringene på. Den ene er kollektivtransport og den andre er økt bruk av elektrifiserte kjøretøy slik som el-sykler. Denne artikkelen er en kvalitativ analyse av et utvalg personer som for første gang prøver el-sykkel og hvordan de beskriver teknologiens egenskaper og sine egne erfaringer

Is information enough? : user responses to seasonal climate forecasts in Southern Africa : report to the World Bank, AFTE1-ENVGC adaptation to climate change and variability in Sub-Saharan Africa, phase II

Since the mid-1980s, long-lead climate forecasts have been developed and used to predict the onset of El Niño events and their impact on climate variability. Advances in the observational and theoretical understanding of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have contributed to improved seasonal forecasts, with lead times of up to one year. As the ability to forecast climate variability improves, the potential social and economic applications of forecasts have become an issue of great interest. There is widespread optimism that the availability and dissemination of climate forecasts can provide much-needed information that will inevitably reduce the losses and damages attributed to climate variability. However, this study indicates that it is not only the availability of information that matters, but also the end-users capacity to act upon it. This report discusses user responses to seasonal climate forecasts in southern Africa, with an emphasis on small-scale farmers in Namibia and Tanzania. The study examines if and how farmers received, used, and perceived the forecasts in the 1997/98 agricultural season. The report also includes a summary of a workshop on user responses to seasonal forecasts in southern Africa, organized as part of the larger project. The participants in this workshop discussed some of the bottlenecks and constraints in terms of both forecast dissemination and user responses in various branches of the agricultural sector. A comparison of case studies across southern Africa revealed that there were differences in both dissemination strategies and in the capacity to respond to extreme events. Nevertheless, it was clear that improvements in forecast dissemination coupled with improved capacity to respond to the forecasts could yield net benefits for agricultural production in southern Africa. Case studies in Namibia and Tanzania were undertaken to capture the extent to which seasonal forecasts reached “end users” in the agricultural sector. The responses indicate both the possibilities and limitations related to climate forecasts as a means of reducing rural vulnerability to climate variability. Interviews were also conducted with national and regional agricultural and food security institutions in Namibia, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. Institutions included government agencies, farmer organizations, research institutions, and private companies. Participation in two of the three SARCOF meetings held during the 1997/98 season provided insight into forecast development and dissemination, as well as into the emerging dialog between forecasters and users. The surveys revealed two main trends. First, there is a need to expand dissemination. Second, there is a pressing need to improve capacity for using the forecasts. In terms of dissemination, the surveys showed that less than half of the small-scale farmers interviewed actually received the pre-season forecasts, and fewer heard the mid-season updates. Moreover, what forecasts were received were often confused with other reports stemming from the coincidental occurrence of a very strong El Niño phenomenon. One reason so few small-scale farmers received the forecasts is that they have not been directly targeted as end-users. While dissemination efforts have clearly been inadequate, they do not appear to be as consequential as problems related to the capacity of small-scale farmers to respond to the forecasts. Unless farmers have the ability to correctly interpret the forecasts, and the capacity to take action based upon the information, the forecasts will remain underutilized. Constraints to the capacity to respond to climate forecasts lie in economic and social structures, rather than uniquely in a lack of information. Access to credit, seeds, fertilizers, draft power, and markets shapes the ability of farmers to respond to climate information. In the wake of the 1997/98 El Niño event, there is a need to critically reflect upon the potential benefits of seasonal climate forecasts. Responses to present-day climate variability form the cornerstone for adapting to future climate changes. In anticipation of potential changes in the frequency and/or magnitude of extreme events associated with global climate change, there is clearly a need for improved seasonal forecasts and better information dissemination. Nevertheless, the results of this study caution against a misplaced emphasis on improving the accuracy of forecasts at the expense of increasing the flexibility of farmers to adapt. Instead, the provision of information must be tied to enhanced response or adaptation options. Climate forecasts have the potential to increase food security in southern Africa. However, to realize the full extent of potential benefits, response strategies should be strategically developed alongside dissemination strategies targeted at small-scale farmers. Moreover, this study points to a need to examine how economic changes taking place in southern Africa enhance or constrain this flexibility. Seasonal climate forecasts can serve as more than a tool for emergency management of food aid. Addressing the economic constraints to the use of seasonal climate forecasts could place farmers in a position where they could actually act upon the information. Information alone is not enough, but combined with increased attention to response strategies, seasonal climate forecasts can serve as a valuable tool for farmers in southern Africa. Acknowledgment The authors would like to acknowledge the support and contributions of the many people who assisted us in this project. We are grateful to Arne Dalfelt of the World Bank for helping us to make this project a reality, and for supporting CICERO’s longer-term research on climate change and variability in Africa. We would also like to thank Mike Harrison, Macol Stewart and the participants in the SARCOF meetings for encouraging and facilitating this research. For the field research in Namibia, we would like to express our thanks to Luis de Pisano, Peter Hutchinson, Kintinu Sageus, Gert van Eeden, Dave Cole, Mary Seely, Chris Morry, Franz Oberprieler, John le Roux, Paul Strydom, Barbara de Bruine, Gert Grobler, Ronnie Bornman, Cobus Franken, Pieter Hugo, and the others who took the time to share their views with us on seasonal climate forecasts and their potential use in Namibia. We would also like to thank Fiina Shimaneni, Otto Kamwi, and colleagues at the Multidisciplinary Research Center at the University of Namibia for their assistance with the field surveys. We are grateful to Sylvi Endresen for helping us to coordinate this field research, and to Jürgen Hoffman for his support, assistance, and enthusiasm for the project. The fieldwork in Tanzania would not have been possible without the assistance and cooperation of colleagues at Sokoine University, including Nganga Kihupi and Winifrida Rwamugira. We are also grateful to Bahari Mumali, James Ngana, Burhani Nyenzi, Mr. Kalinga, Juvenal R.L. Kisanga, S.A. Muro, and F.E. Mahua for their generous time. In Zimbabwe, we would like to thank Leonard Unganai, Brad Garanganga, Eliot Vhurumuku, C.H. Matarira, Stephen Crawford, Saskia van Osterhout, Marufu.C. Zinyowera, Sylvester Tsikisayi, Amos Makarau, Mr. Malusalila, Amus Chitambira, Micael Negusse, Roland Keth, and Veronica Mutikana for taking time to discuss the forecasts and their implications with us. We are grateful to the participants in the Dar es Salaam Workshop on User Responses to Seasonal Forecasts in Southern Africa, for sharing their insights and contributing to a productive exchange of research findings and ideas. In addition to the authors and collaborators mentioned above, participants include Anna Bartman, Roger Blench, Louise Bohn, Tharsis Herea, Amin Bakari Iddi, Maynard Lugenja, Jennifer Phillips, Anne Thomson, and Coleen Vogel. Finally, we would like to thank Lynn Nygård, Bård Romstad, and Tone Veiby for editorial assistance with this report