Variational Bayes with Intractable Likelihood

Variational Bayes (VB) is rapidly becoming a popular tool for Bayesian inference in statistical modeling. However, the existing VB algorithms are restricted to cases where the likelihood is tractable, which precludes the use of VB in many interesting situations such as in state space models and in approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), where application of VB methods was previously impossible. This paper extends the scope of application of VB to cases where the likelihood is intractable, but can be estimated unbiasedly. The proposed VB method therefore makes it possible to carry out Bayesian inference in many statistical applications, including state space models and ABC. The method is generic in the sense that it can be applied to almost all statistical models without requiring too much model-based derivation, which is a drawback of many existing VB algorithms. We also show how the proposed method can be used to obtain highly accurate VB approximations of marginal posterior distributions.Comment: 40 pages, 6 figure

Variable Selection and Model Averaging in Semiparametric Overdispersed Generalized Linear Models

We express the mean and variance terms in a double exponential regression model as additive functions of the predictors and use Bayesian variable selection to determine which predictors enter the model, and whether they enter linearly or flexibly. When the variance term is null we obtain a generalized additive model, which becomes a generalized linear model if the predictors enter the mean linearly. The model is estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and the methodology is illustrated using real and simulated data sets.Comment: 8 graphs 35 page

The Kohn mode for trapped Bose gases within the dielectric formalism

The presence of undamped harmonic center of mass oscillations of a weakly interacting Bose gas in a harmonic trap is demonstrated within the dielectric formalism for a previously introduced finite temperature approximation including exchange. The consistency of the approximation with the Kohn theorem is thereby demonstrated. The Kohn modes are found explicitly, generalizing an earlier zero-temperature result found in the literature. It is shown how the Kohn mode disappears from the single-particle spectrum, while remaining in the density oscillation spectrum, when the temperature increases from below to above the condensation temperature.Comment: 6 pages revte

Recent Assembly of an Imprinted Domain from Non-Imprinted Components

Genomic imprinting, representing parent-specific expression of alleles at a locus, raises many questions about how—and especially why—epigenetic silencing of mammalian genes evolved. We present the first in-depth study of how a human imprinted domain evolved, analyzing a domain containing several imprinted genes that are involved in human disease. Using comparisons of orthologous genes in humans, marsupials, and the platypus, we discovered that the Prader-Willi/Angelman syndrome region on human Chromosome 15q was assembled only recently (105–180 million years ago). This imprinted domain arose after a region bearing UBE3A (Angelman syndrome) fused with an unlinked region bearing SNRPN (Prader-Willi syndrome), which had duplicated from the non-imprinted SNRPB/B′. This region independently acquired several retroposed gene copies and arrays of small nucleolar RNAs from different parts of the genome. In their original configurations, SNRPN and UBE3A are expressed from both alleles, implying that acquisition of imprinting occurred after their rearrangement and required the evolution of a control locus. Thus, the evolution of imprinting in viviparous mammals is ongoing

ACVIM consensus statement on the diagnosis of immune thrombocytopenia in dogs and cats

Immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) is the most common acquired primary hemostatic disorder in dogs. Immune thrombocytopenia less commonly affects cats but is an important cause of mortality and treatment-associated morbidity in both species. Immune thrombocytopenia remains a diagnosis of exclusion for which diagnostic guidelines are lacking. Primary, or non-associative, ITP refers to autoimmune platelet destruction. Secondary, or associative, ITP arises in response to an underlying disease trigger. However, evidence for which comorbidities serve as ITP triggers has not been systematically evaluated. To identify key diagnostic steps for ITP and important comorbidities associated with secondary ITP, we developed 12 Population Evaluation/Exposure Comparison Outcome (PECO) format questions. These questions were addressed by evidence evaluators utilizing a literature pool of 287 articles identified by the panelists using a structured search strategy. Evidence evaluators, using panel-designed templates and data extraction tools, summarized evidence and created guideline recommendations that then were integrated by diagnosis and comorbidity domain chairs. The revised PECO responses underwent a Delphi survey process to reach consensus on final guidelines. A combination of panel expertise and PECO responses were employed to develop algorithms for diagnosis of ITP in dogs and cats, which also underwent 4 iterations of Delphi review. Comorbidity evidence evaluators employed an integrated measure of evidence (IME) tool to determine evidence quality for each comorbidity; IME values combined with evidence summaries for each comorbidity were integrated to develop ITP screening recommendations, which also were subjected to Delphi review. Commentary was solicited from multiple relevant professional organizations before finalizing the consensus. The final consensus statement provides clinical guidelines for the diagnosis of, and underlying disease screening for, ITP in dogs and cats. The systematic consensus process identified numerous knowledge gaps that should guide future studies. This statement is a companion manuscript to the ACVIM Consensus Statement on the Treatment of Immune Thrombocytopenia

ACVIM consensus statement on the treatment of immune thrombocytopenia in dogs and cats

Management of immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) in dogs and cats is evolving, but there are no evidence-based guidelines to assist clinicians with treatment decisions. Likewise, the overall goals for treatment of ITP have not been established. Immunosuppressive doses of glucocorticoids are the first line treatment, but optimal treatment regimens beyond glucocorticoids remain uncertain. Additional options include secondary immunosuppressive drugs such as azathioprine, modified cyclosporine, and mycophenolate mofetil, usually selected based on clinician preference. Vincristine, human IV immunoglobulin (hIVIg), and transfusion of platelet or red blood cell–containing products are often used in more severe cases. Splenectomy and thrombopoietin receptor agonists are usually reserved for refractory cases, but when and in which patient these modalities should be employed is under debate. To develop evidence-based guidelines for individualized treatment of ITP patients, we asked 20 Population Intervention Comparison Outcome (PICO) format questions. These were addressed by 17 evidence evaluators using a literature pool of 288 articles identified by a structured search strategy. Evidence evaluators, using panel-designed templates and data extraction tools, summarized evidence and created guideline recommendations. These were integrated by treatment domain chairs and then refined by iterative Delphi survey review to reach consensus on the final guidelines. In addition, 19 non-PICO questions covering scenarios in which evidence was lacking or of low quality were answered by expert opinion using iterative Delphi surveys with panelist integration and refinement. Commentary was solicited from multiple relevant professional organizations before finalizing the consensus. The rigorous consensus process identified few comparative treatment studies, highlighting many areas of ITP treatment requiring additional studies. This statement is a companion manuscript to the ACVIM Consensus Statement on the Diagnosis of Immune Thrombocytopenia in Dogs and Cats

Isotopic ordering in eggshells reflects body temperatures and suggests differing thermophysiology in two Cretaceous dinosaurs

Our understanding of the evolutionary transitions leading to the modern endothermic state of birds and mammals is incomplete, partly because tools available to study the thermophysiology of extinct vertebrates are limited. Here we show that clumped isotope analysis of eggshells can be used to determine body temperatures of females during periods of ovulation. Late Cretaceous titanosaurid eggshells yield temperatures similar to large modern endotherms. In contrast, oviraptorid eggshells yield temperatures lower than most modern endotherms but ~6 °C higher than co-occurring abiogenic carbonates, implying that this taxon did not have thermoregulation comparable to modern birds, but was able to elevate its body temperature above environmental temperatures. Therefore, we observe no strong evidence for end-member ectothermy or endothermy in the species examined. Body temperatures for these two species indicate that variable thermoregulation likely existed among the non-avian dinosaurs and that not all dinosaurs had body temperatures in the range of that seen in modern birds

Decoherence of Bose-Einstein condensates in traps at finite temperature

The phase diffusion of the order parameter of trapped Bose-Einstein condensates at temperatures large compared to the mean trap frequency is determined, which gives the fundamental limit of the line-width of an atom laser. In addition a prediction of the correlation time of the number fluctuations in the condensate is made and related to the phase diffusion via the fluctuation-dissipation relation.Comment: 4 pages Revtex, revised version, to appear in Phys. Rev. Letter