The future as a design problem

An often unacknowledged yet foundational problem for design is how ‘futures‘ are recruited for design practice. This problem saturates considerations of what could or should be designed. We distinguish two intertwined approaches to this: ‘pragmatic projection’, which tries to tie the future to the past, and ‘grand vision’, which ties the present to the future. We examine ubiquitous computing as a case study of how pragmatic projection and grand vision are practically expressed to direct and structure design decisions. We assess their implications and conclude by arguing that the social legitimacy of design futures should be increasingly integral to their construction

Intergenerational interpretation of the Internet of Things

This report investigates how different generations within a household interpret individual members’ data generated by the Internet of Things (IoT). Adopting a mixed methods approach, we are interested in interpretations of the IoT by teenagers, their parents and grandparents, and how they understand and interact with the kinds of data that might be generated by IoT devices. The first part of this document is a technical review that outlines the key existing and envisaged technologies that make up the IoT. It explores the definition and scope of the Internet of Things. Hardware, networking, intelligent objects and Human-Computer Interaction implications are all discussed in detail. The second section focuses on the human perspective, looking at psychological and sociological issues relating to the interpretation of information generated by the IoT. Areas such as privacy, data ambiguity, ageism, and confirmation bias are explored. The third section brings both aspects together, examining how technical and social aspects of the IoT interact in four specific application domains: energy monitoring, groceries and shopping, physical gaming, and sharing experiences. This section also presents three household scenarios developed to communicate and explore the complexities of integrating IoT technologies into family life. The final section draws together all the findings and suggests future research

Boreal forest CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration predicted by nine ecosystem process models: Intermodel comparisons and relationships to field measurements

Nine ecosystem process models were used to predict CO2 and water vapor exchanges by a 150-year-old black spruce forest in central Canada during 1994–1996 to evaluate and improve the models. Three models had hourly time steps, five had daily time steps, and one had monthly time steps. Model input included site ecosystem characteristics and meteorology. Model predictions were compared to eddy covariance (EC) measurements of whole-ecosystem CO2exchange and evapotranspiration, to chamber measurements of nighttime moss-surface CO2release, and to ground-based estimates of annual gross primary production, net primary production, net ecosystem production (NEP), plant respiration, and decomposition. Model-model differences were apparent for all variables. Model-measurement agreement was good in some cases but poor in others. Modeled annual NEP ranged from −11 g C m−2 (weak CO2source) to 85 g C m−2 (moderate CO2 sink). The models generally predicted greater annual CO2sink activity than measured by EC, a discrepancy consistent with the fact that model parameterizations represented the more productive fraction of the EC tower “footprint.” At hourly to monthly timescales, predictions bracketed EC measurements so median predictions were similar to measurements, but there were quantitatively important model-measurement discrepancies found for all models at subannual timescales. For these models and input data, hourly time steps (and greater complexity) compared to daily time steps tended to improve model-measurement agreement for daily scale CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration (as judged by root-mean-squared error). Model time step and complexity played only small roles in monthly to annual predictions

A bayesian way to correct for measurement error in drug risk estimates from EHR data.

Introduction Data from electronic medical records is now readily available and records information needed in pharmacoepidemiological studies not usually found in administrative data such as risk factors and biometrics. Yet, EMR data leads to measurement error due to primary non-adherence. Bayesian bias correction could provide corrected estimates from administrative data. Objectives and Approach We present a method for correcting risk estimates from EMR data using linked data. In our example, we estimate the risk of cardiovascular events from oral-hypoglycemics in patients with type-2 diabetes in Boston, Quebec, and the UK between 2009 and 2012. Using linked EMR and administrative data in Quebec, we compute a positive and negative predicting value of prescription on dispensation for each class of oral-hypoglycemics. The cardiovascular risk is then analysed using a bayesian Weibull survival model adjusted for potential confounders. A similar model is then computed that accounts for exposure measurement error using the PPV and NPV. Results The Quebec and Boston cohorts have similar sizes with 1197 and 2346 patients, but the UK was bigger at 41370 patients. In Quebec's data, there were important differences in PPV and NPV by class of oral-hypoglycemics with PPVs for Biguanides at 0.81, Sulphonylureas at 0.65, and others at 0.50. The pattern for NPV differed with the same classes having respectively values of 0.56, 0.97, and 0.99. Estimates from the naïve model are typical of similar analysis but compared to their correction, they were generally overprecise and biased towards the null. The adjusted estimated were adequately representing the increased uncertainty with hazard ratios for Sulphonylureas going from 1.72 (1.22, 2.41) to 3.19 (1.36, 5.93), and from 1.09 (0.86, 1.39) to 1.05 (0.45, 2.16) for no drugs Conclusion/Implications Bayesian adjustment for measurement error allowed us to use linked data to regenerate uncertainty and to correct the bias in our risk estimates. Our approach was impacted by the observed low predictive value of prescribing, by reduced transportability of our PPV and NPV estimates, and other sources of bias

Intergenerational interpretation of the Internet of Things

This report investigates how different generations within a household interpret individual members’ data generated by the Internet of Things (IoT). Adopting a mixed methods approach, we are interested in interpretations of the IoT by teenagers, their parents and grandparents, and how they understand and interact with the kinds of data that might be generated by IoT devices.The first part of this document is a technical review that outlines the key existing and envisaged technologies that make up the IoT. It explores the definition and scope of the Internet of Things. Hardware, networking, intelligent objects and Human-Computer Interaction implications are all discussed in detail.The second section focuses on the human perspective, looking at psychological and sociological issues relating to the interpretation of information generated by the IoT. Areas such as privacy, data ambiguity, ageism, and confirmation bias are explored.The third section brings both aspects together, examining how technical and social aspects of the IoT interact in four specific application domains: energy monitoring, groceries and shopping, physical gaming, and sharing experiences. This section also presents three household scenarios developed to communicate and explore the complexities of integrating IoT technologies into family life.The final section draws together all the findings and suggests future research

Loss of microbial diversity and pathogen domination of the gut microbiota in critically ill patients

Among long-stay critically ill patients in the adult intensive care unit (ICU), there are often marked changes in the complexity of the gut microbiota. However, it remains unclear whether such patients might benefit from enhanced surveillance or from interventions targeting the gut microbiota or the pathogens therein. We therefore undertook a prospective observational study of 24 ICU patients, in which serial faecal samples were subjected to shotgun metagenomic sequencing, phylogenetic profiling and microbial genome analyses. Two-thirds of the patients experienced a marked drop in gut microbial diversity (to an inverse Simpson's index of <4) at some stage during their stay in the ICU, often accompanied by the absence or loss of potentially beneficial bacteria. Intravenous administration of the broad-spectrum antimicrobial agent meropenem was significantly associated with loss of gut microbial diversity, but the administration of other antibiotics, including piperacillin/tazobactam, failed to trigger statistically detectable changes in microbial diversity. In three-quarters of ICU patients, we documented episodes of gut domination by pathogenic strains, with evidence of cryptic nosocomial transmission of Enterococcus faecium. In some patients, we also saw an increase in the relative abundance of apparent commensal organisms in the gut microbiome, including the archaeal species Methanobrevibacter smithii. In conclusion, we have documented a dramatic absence of microbial diversity and pathogen domination of the gut microbiota in a high proportion of critically ill patients using shotgun metagenomics

Procuring a sustainable future: an action learning approach to the development and modelling of ethical and sustainable procurement practices

© 2016 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis GroupThis paper contributes to an understanding of the processes by which organisational actors learn how to affect positive and sustainable social change in their local region through action learning, action research and appreciative inquiry. The paper is based on a critically reflective account of key findings from an ongoing action research project, funded by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation. The project is an attempt to alleviate poverty in the Leeds City Region through the identification and spread of ‘good practice’ in large local organisations. The paper is based on insights into the tensions involved in accomplishing such modes of action research and action learning in this particular context, and how these findings can relate to similar research in other domains of inquiry, action and cross-organisational learning. Through this, the paper discusses the inherent challenges faced when attempting to use action research and action learning approaches to help large organisations to learn and develop as ethical and sustainable agents

Influence of freeze-thaw events on carbon dioxide emission from soils at different moisture and land use

BACKGROUND: The repeated freeze-thaw events during cold season, freezing of soils in autumn and thawing in spring are typical for the tundra, boreal, and temperate soils. The thawing of soils during winter-summer transitions induces the release of decomposable organic carbon and acceleration of soil respiration. The winter-spring fluxes of CO(2 )from permanently and seasonally frozen soils are essential part of annual carbon budget varying from 5 to 50%. The mechanisms of the freeze-thaw activation are not absolutely clear and need clarifying. We investigated the effect of repeated freezing-thawing events on CO(2 )emission from intact arable and forest soils (Luvisols, loamy silt; Central Germany) at different moisture (65% and 100% of WHC). RESULTS: Due to the measurement of the CO(2 )flux in two hours intervals, the dynamics of CO(2 )emission during freezing-thawing events was described in a detailed way. At +10°C (initial level) in soils investigated, carbon dioxide emission varied between 7.4 to 43.8 mg C m(-2)h(-1 )depending on land use and moisture. CO(2 )flux from the totally frozen soil never reached zero and amounted to 5 to 20% of the initial level, indicating that microbial community was still active at -5°C. Significant burst of CO(2 )emission (1.2–1.7-fold increase depending on moisture and land use) was observed during thawing. There was close linear correlation between CO(2 )emission and soil temperature (R(2 )= 0.86–0.97, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Our investigations showed that soil moisture and land use governed the initial rate of soil respiration, duration of freezing and thawing of soil, pattern of CO(2 )dynamics and extra CO(2 )fluxes. As a rule, the emissions of CO(2 )induced by freezing-thawing were more significant in dry soils and during the first freezing-thawing cycle (FTC). The acceleration of CO(2 )emission was caused by different processes: the liberation of nutrients upon the soil freezing, biological activity occurring in unfrozen water films, and respiration of cold-adapted microflora

The charcoal trap: Miombo forests and the energy needs of people

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study evaluates the carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas fluxes to the atmosphere resulting from charcoal production in Zambia. It combines new biomass and flux data from a study, that was conducted in a <it>miombo </it>woodland within the Kataba Forest Reserve in the Western Province of Zambia, with data from other studies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The measurements at Kataba compared protected area (3 plots) with a highly disturbed plot outside the forest reserve and showed considerably reduced biomass after logging for charcoal production. The average aboveground biomass content of the reserve (Plots 2-4) was around 150 t ha^-1, while the disturbed plot only contained 24 t ha^-1. Soil carbon was not reduced significantly in the disturbed plot. Two years of eddy covariance measurements resulted in net ecosystem exchange values of -17 ± 31 g C m^-2y^-1, in the first and 90 ± 16 g C m^-2in the second year. Thus, on the basis of these two years of measurement, there is no evidence that the <it>miombo </it>woodland at Kataba represents a present-day carbon sink. At the country level, it is likely that deforestation for charcoal production currently leads to a per capita emission rate of 2 - 3 t CO₂y^-1. This is due to poor forest regeneration, although the resilience of <it>miombo </it>woodlands is high. Better post-harvest management could change this situation.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We argue that protection of <it>miombo </it>woodlands has to account for the energy demands of the population. The production at national scale that we estimated converts into 10,000 - 15,000 GWh y^-1of energy in the charcoal. The term "Charcoal Trap" we introduce, describes the fact that this energy supply has to be substituted when woodlands are protected. One possible solution, a shift in energy supply from charcoal to electricity, would reduce the pressure of forests but requires high investments into grid and power generation. Since Zambia currently cannot generate this money by itself, the country will remain locked in the charcoal trap such as many other of its African neighbours. The question arises whether and how money and technology transfer to increase regenerative electrical power generation should become part of a post-Kyoto process. Furthermore, better inventory data are urgently required to improve knowledge about the current state of the woodland usage and recovery. Net greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced substantially by improving the post-harvest management, charcoal production technology and/or providing alternative energy supply.</p