Shock Index in the early assessment of febrile children at the emergency department : a prospective multicentre study

Funding Information: Funding This work was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 668303), by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centres at Imperial College London, Newcastle Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and Newcastle University, and by NIHR Academic Clinical Fellowship award (ACL-2018-21-00 to RN). Funding Information: This work was supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 668303), by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centres at Imperial College London, Newcastle Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and Newcastle University, and by NIHR Academic Clinical Fellowship award (ACL-2018-21-00 to RN). Publisher Copyright: ©Objective: (1) To derive reference values for the Shock Index (heart rate/systolic blood pressure) based on a large emergency department (ED) population of febrile children and (2) to determine the diagnostic value of the Shock Index for serious illness in febrile children. Design/setting: Observational study in 11 European EDs (2017-2018). Patients: Febrile children with measured blood pressure. Main outcome measures: Serious bacterial infection (SBI), invasive bacterial infection (IBI), immediate life-saving interventions (ILSIs) and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The association between high Shock Index (>95th centile) and each outcome was determined by logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, referral, comorbidity and temperature. Additionally, we calculated sensitivity, specificity and negative/positive likelihood ratios (LRs). Results: Of 5622 children, 461 (8.2%) had SBI, 46 (0.8%) had IBI, 203 (3.6%) were treated with ILSI and 69 (1.2%) were ICU admitted. High Shock Index was associated with SBI (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.6 (95% CI 1.3 to 1.9)), ILSI (aOR 2.5 (95% CI 2.0 to 2.9)), ICU admission (aOR 2.2 (95% CI 1.4 to 2.9)) but not with IBI (aOR: 1.5 (95% CI 0.6 to 2.4)). For the different outcomes, sensitivity for high Shock Index ranged from 0.10 to 0.15, specificity ranged from 0.95 to 0.95, negative LRs ranged from 0.90 to 0.95 and positive LRs ranged from 1.8 to 2.8. Conclusions: High Shock Index is associated with serious illness in febrile children. However, its rule-out value is insufficient which suggests that the Shock Index is not valuable as a screening tool for all febrile children at the ED.publishersversionPeer reviewe

Lifestyle and comorbid conditions as risk factors for community-acquired pneumonia in outpatient adults (NEUMO-ES-RISK project)

Introduction: Information about community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) risk in primary care is limited. We assess different lifestyle and comorbid conditions as risk factors (RF) for CAP in adults in primary care. Methods: A retrospective-observational-controlled study was designed. Adult CAP cases diagnosed at primary care in Spain between 2009 and 2013 were retrieved using the National Surveillance System of Primary Care Data (BiFAP). Age-matched and sex-matched controls were selected by incidence density sampling (ratio 2:1). Associations are presented as percentages and OR. Binomial regression models were constructed to avoid bias effects. Results: 51 139 patients and 102 372 controls were compared. Mean age (SD) was 61.4 (19.9) years. RF more significantly linked to CAP were: HIV (OR [95% CI]: 5.21 [4.35 to 6.27]), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (2.97 [2.84 to 3.12]), asthma (2.16 [2.07,2.26]), smoking (1.96 [1.91 to 2.02]) and poor dental hygiene (1.45 [1.41 to 1.49]). Average prevalence of any RF was 82.2% in cases and 69.2% in controls (2.05 [2.00 to 2.10]). CAP rate increased with the accumulation of RF and age: risk associated with 1RF was 1.42 (1.37 to 1.47) in 18-60-year-old individuals vs 1.57 (1.49 to 1.66) in >60 years of age, with 2RF 1.88 (1.80 to 1.97) vs 2.35 (2.23, 2.48) and with >/= 3 RF 3.11 (2.95, 3.30) vs 4.34 (4.13 to 4.57). Discussion: Prevalence of RF in adult CAP in primary care is high. Main RFs associated are HIV, COPD, asthma, smoking and poor dental hygiene. Our risk stacking results could help clinicians identify patients at higher risk of pneumonia

Analysis of blood and nasal epithelial transcriptomes to identify mechanisms associated with control of SARS-CoV-2 viral load in the upper respiratory tract

Objectives: The amount of SARS-CoV-2 detected in the upper respiratory tract (URT viral load) is a key driver of transmission of infection. Current evidence suggests that mechanisms constraining URT viral load are different from those controlling lower respiratory tract viral load and disease severity. Understanding such mechanisms may help to develop treatments and vaccine strategies to reduce transmission. Combining mathematical modelling of URT viral load dynamics with transcriptome analyses we aimed to identify mechanisms controlling URT viral load. Methods: COVID-19 patients were recruited in Spain during the first wave of the pandemic. RNA sequencing of peripheral blood and targeted NanoString nCounter transcriptome analysis of nasal epithelium were performed and gene expression analysed in relation to paired URT viral load samples collected within 15 days of symptom onset. Proportions of major immune cells in blood were estimated from transcriptional data using computational differential estimation. Weighted correlation network analysis (adjusted for cell proportions) and fixed transcriptional repertoire analysis were used to identify associations with URT viral load, quantified as standard deviations (z-scores) from an expected trajectory over time. Results Eighty-two subjects (50% female, median age 54 years (range 3–73)) with COVID-19 were recruited. Paired URT viral load samples were available for 16 blood transcriptome samples, and 17 respiratory epithelial transcriptome samples. Natural Killer (NK) cells were the only blood cell type significantly correlated with URT viral load z-scores (r = −0.62, P = 0.010). Twenty-four blood gene expression modules were significantly correlated with URT viral load z-score, the most significant being a module of genes connected around IFNA14 (Interferon Alpha-14) expression (r = −0.60, P = 1e-10). In fixed repertoire analysis, prostanoid-related gene expression was significantly associated with higher viral load. In nasal epithelium, only GNLY (granulysin) gene expression showed significant negative correlation with viral load. Conclusions: Correlations between the transcriptional host response and inter-individual variations in SARS-CoV-2 URT viral load, revealed many molecular mechanisms plausibly favouring or constraining viral replication. Existing evidence corroborates many of these mechanisms, including likely roles for NK cells, granulysin, prostanoids and interferon alpha-14. Inhibition of prostanoid production and administration of interferon alpha-14 may be attractive transmission-blocking interventions

Mortality and morbidity in community-acquired sepsis in European pediatric intensive care units: a prospective cohort study from the European Childhood Life-threatening Infectious Disease Study (EUCLIDS)

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is one of the main reasons for non-elective admission to pediatric intensive care units (PICUs), but little is known about determinants influencing outcome. We characterized children admitted with community-acquired sepsis to European PICUs and studied risk factors for mortality and disability. METHODS: Data were collected within the collaborative Seventh Framework Programme (FP7)-funded EUCLIDS study, which is a prospective multicenter cohort study aiming to evaluate genetic determinants of susceptibility and/or severity in sepsis. This report includes 795 children admitted with community-acquired sepsis to 52 PICUs from seven European countries between July 2012 and January 2016. The primary outcome measure was in-hospital death. Secondary outcome measures were PICU-free days censured at day 28, hospital length of stay, and disability. Independent predictors were identified by multivariate regression analysis. RESULTS: Patients most commonly presented clinically with sepsis without a source (n = 278, 35%), meningitis/encephalitis (n = 182, 23%), or pneumonia (n = 149, 19%). Of 428 (54%) patients with confirmed bacterial infection, Neisseria meningitidis (n = 131, 31%) and Streptococcus pneumoniae (n = 78, 18%) were the main pathogens. Mortality was 6% (51/795), increasing to 10% in the presence of septic shock (45/466). Of the survivors, 31% were discharged with disability, including 24% of previously healthy children who survived with disability. Mortality and disability were independently associated with S. pneumoniae infections (mortality OR 4.1, 95% CI 1.1-16.0, P = 0.04; disability OR 5.4, 95% CI 1.8-15.8, P < 0.01) and illness severity as measured by Pediatric Index of Mortality (PIM2) score (mortality OR 2.8, 95% CI 1.3-6.1, P < 0.01; disability OR 3.4, 95% CI 1.8-6.4, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Despite widespread immunization campaigns, invasive bacterial disease remains responsible for substantial morbidity and mortality in critically ill children in high-income countries. Almost one third of sepsis survivors admitted to the PICU were discharged with some disability. More research is required to delineate the long-term outcome of pediatric sepsis and to identify interventional targets. Our findings emphasize the importance of improved early sepsis-recognition programs to address the high burden of disease

Guideline adherence in febrile children below 3 months visiting European Emergency Departments: an observational multicenter study

Febrile children below 3 months have a higher risk of serious bacterial infections, which often leads to extensive diagnostics and treatment. There is practice variation in management due to differences in guidelines and their usage and adherence. We aimed to assess whether management in febrile children below 3 months attending European Emergency Departments (EDs) was according to the guidelines for fever. This study is part of the MOFICHE study, which is an observational multicenter study including routine data of febrile children (0-18 years) attending twelve EDs in eight European countries. In febrile children below 3 months (excluding bronchiolitis), we analyzed actual management compared to the guidelines for fever. Ten EDs applied the (adapted) NICE guideline, and two EDs applied local guidelines. Management included diagnostic tests, antibiotic treatment, and admission. We included 913 children with a median age of 1.7 months (IQR 1.0-2.3). Management per ED varied as follows: use of diagnostic tests 14-83%, antibiotic treatment 23-54%, admission 34-86%. Adherence to the guideline was 43% (374/868) for blood cultures, 29% (144/491) for lumbar punctures, 55% (270/492) for antibiotic prescriptions, and 67% (573/859) for admission. Full adherence to these four management components occurred in 15% (132/868, range 0-38%), partial adherence occurred in 56% (484/868, range 35-77%). CONCLUSION: There is large practice variation in management. The guideline adherence was limited, but highest for admission which implies a cautious approach. Future studies should focus on guideline revision including new biomarkers in order to optimize management in young febrile children. WHAT IS KNOWN: • Febrile children below 3 months have a higher risk of serious bacterial infections, which often leads to extensive diagnostics and treatment. • There is practice variation in management of young febrile children due to differences in guidelines and their usage and adherence. WHAT IS NEW: • Full guideline adherence is limited, whereas partial guideline adherence is moderate in febrile children below 3 months across Europe. • Guideline revision including new biomarkers is needed to improve management in young febrile children

AWaRe-ness of antimicrobial stewardship challenges in pediatric emergency care: results from the PERFORM study assessing consistency and appropriateness of antibiotic prescribing across Europe

Objectives Optimization of antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) is key to tackling antimicrobial resistance (AMR), which is exacerbated by over-prescription of antibiotics in pediatric Emergency Departments (EDs). We described patterns of empiric antibiotic use in European EDs, and characterized appropriateness and consistency of prescribing. Methods Between August 2016 and December 2019 febrile children attending the ED in nine European countries with suspected infection were recruited into the PERFORM (Personalised Risk assessment in Febrile illness to Optimise Real-life Management) study. Empiric systemic antibiotic use was determined in view of assigned final ‘bacterial’ or ‘viral’ phenotype. Antibiotics were classified according to WHO AWaRe. Results Of 2130 febrile episodes (excluding children with non-bacterial/non-viral phenotypes), 1549 (72.7%) were assigned a ‘bacterial’ and 581 (27.3%) a ‘viral’ phenotype. A total of 1318/1549 (85.1%) episodes with a ‘bacterial’ and 269/581 (46.3%) with a ‘viral’ phenotype received empiric systemic antibiotics (first two days of admission). Of those, the majority (87.8% in ‘bacterial’ and 87.0% in ‘viral’ group) received parenteral antibiotics. The top three antibiotics prescribed were third-generation cephalosporins, penicillins and penicillin/beta-lactamase inhibitor combinations. Of those treated with empiric systemic antibiotics in the ‘viral’ group 216/269 (80.3%) received ≥ one Watch antibiotic. Conclusions Differentiating bacterial from viral etiology in febrile illness on initial ED presentation remains challenging, resulting in a substantial over-prescription of antibiotics. A significant proportion of patients with a ‘viral’ phenotype received systemic antibiotics, predominantly classified as WHO Watch. Rapid and accurate point-of-care tests in the ED differentiating between bacterial and viral etiology, could significantly improve AMS

Diagnosis of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children by a whole-blood transcriptional signature

BACKGROUND: To identify a diagnostic blood transcriptomic signature that distinguishes multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) from Kawasaki disease (KD), bacterial infections, and viral infections. METHODS: Children presenting with MIS-C to participating hospitals in the United Kingdom and the European Union between April 2020 and April 2021 were prospectively recruited. Whole-blood RNA Sequencing was performed, contrasting the transcriptomes of children with MIS-C (n = 38) to those from children with KD (n = 136), definite bacterial (DB; n = 188) and viral infections (DV; n = 138). Genes significantly differentially expressed (SDE) between MIS-C and comparator groups were identified. Feature selection was used to identify genes that optimally distinguish MIS-C from other diseases, which were subsequently translated into RT-qPCR assays and evaluated in an independent validation set comprising MIS-C (n = 37), KD (n = 19), DB (n = 56), DV (n = 43), and COVID-19 (n = 39). RESULTS: In the discovery set, 5696 genes were SDE between MIS-C and combined comparator disease groups. Five genes were identified as potential MIS-C diagnostic biomarkers (HSPBAP1, VPS37C, TGFB1, MX2, and TRBV11-2), achieving an AUC of 96.8% (95% CI: 94.6%-98.9%) in the discovery set, and were translated into RT-qPCR assays. The RT-qPCR 5-gene signature achieved an AUC of 93.2% (95% CI: 88.3%-97.7%) in the independent validation set when distinguishing MIS-C from KD, DB, and DV. CONCLUSIONS: MIS-C can be distinguished from KD, DB, and DV groups using a 5-gene blood RNA expression signature. The small number of genes in the signature and good performance in both discovery and validation sets should enable the development of a diagnostic test for MIS-C