Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Interpreting and reporting ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronologic data

The ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating method is among the most versatile of geochronometers, having the potential to date a broad variety of K-bearing materials spanning from the time of Earth’s formation into the historical realm. Measurements using modern noble-gas mass spectrometers are now producing ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates with analytical uncertainties of ∼0.1%, thereby providing precise time constraints for a wide range of geologic and extraterrestrial processes. Analyses of increasingly smaller subsamples have revealed age dispersion in many materials, including some minerals used as neutron fluence monitors. Accordingly, interpretive strategies are evolving to address observed dispersion in dates from a single sample. Moreover, inferring a geologically meaningful “age” from a measured “date” or set of dates is dependent on the geological problem being addressed and the salient assumptions associated with each set of data. We highlight requirements for collateral information that will better constrain the interpretation of ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar data sets, including those associated with single-crystal fusion analyses, incremental heating experiments, and in situ analyses of microsampled domains. To ensure the utility and viability of published results, we emphasize previous recommendations for reporting ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar data and the related essential metadata, with the amendment that data conform to evolving standards of being findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) by both humans and computers. Our examples provide guidance for the presentation and interpretation of ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates to maximize their interdisciplinary usage, reproducibility, and longevity

Risk Reducing Salpingectomy and Delayed Oophorectomy in high risk women: views of cancer geneticists, genetic counsellors and gynaecological oncologists in the UK

Risk-reducing-salpingectomy and Delayed-Oophorectomy (RRSDO) is being proposed as a two-staged approach in place of RRSO to reduce the risks associated with premature menopause in high-risk women. We report on the acceptability/attitude of UK health professionals towards RRSDO. An anonymised web-based survey was sent to UK Cancer Genetics Group (CGG) and British Gynaecological Cancer Society (BGCS) members to assess attitudes towards RRSDO. Baseline characteristics were described using descriptive statistics. A Chi square test was used to compare categorical, Kendal-tau-b test for ordinal and Mann–Whitney test for continuous variables between two groups. 173/708 (24.4 %) of invitees responded. 71 % respondents (CGG = 57 %/BGCS = 83 %, p = 0.005) agreed with the tubal hypothesis for OC, 55 % (CGG = 42 %/BGCS = 66 %, p = 0.003) had heard of RRSDO and 48 % (CGG = 46 %/BGCS = 50 %) felt evidence was not currently strong enough for introduction into clinical practice. However, 60 % respondents’ (CGG = 48 %/BGCS = 71 %, p = 0.009) favoured offering RRSDO to high-risk women declining RRSO, 77 % only supported RRSDO within a clinical trial (CGG = 78 %/BGCS = 76 %) and 81 % (CGG = 76 %/BGCS = 86 %) advocated a UK-wide registry. Vasomotor symptoms (72 %), impact on sexual function (63 %), osteoporosis (59 %), hormonal-therapy (55 %) and subfertility (48 %) related to premature menopause influenced their choice of RRSDO. Potential barriers to offering the two-stage procedure included lack of data on precise level of benefit (83 %), increased surgical morbidity (79 %), loss of breast cancer risk reduction associated with oophorectomy (68 %), need for long-term follow-up (61 %) and a proportion not undergoing DO (66 %). There were variations in perception between BGCS/CGG members which are probably attributable to differences in clinical focus/expertise between these two groups. Despite concerns, there is reasonable support amongst UK clinicians to offering RRSDO to premenopausal high-risk women wishing to avoid RRSO, within a prospective clinical trial.This work has not been directly funded by any commercial organisation, or charity

Dynamics of pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage in healthy children attending a day care center in northern Spain. influence of detection techniques on the results

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage precedes invasive infection and is the source for dissemination of the disease. Differences in sampling methodology, isolation or identification techniques, as well as the period (pre -or post-vaccination) when the study was performed, can influence the reported rates of colonization and the distribution of serotypes carried.</p> <p>Objectives</p> <p>To evaluate the prevalence and dynamics of pneumococcal nasopharyngeal colonization in healthy children aged 6-34 months attending a day care center with a high level of hygiene and no overcrowding. The study was performed 3-4 years after the 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine was introduced, using multiple methodologies to detect and characterize the isolates.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Over 12 months, 25 children were sampled three times, 53 children twice and 27 children once. Three <it>Streptococcus pneumoniae </it>typing techniques were used: Quellung, Pneumotest-Latex-kit and multiplex-polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The similarity of isolates of the same serotype was established by pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and occasionally the multilocus sequence type (ST) was also determined.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall pneumococcal carriage and multiple colonization rates were 89.5% (94/105) and 39%, respectively. Among 218 pneumococci detected, 21 different serotypes and 13 non-typeable isolates were found. The most prevalent serotypes were 19A, 16F and 15B. Serotypes 15B, 19A and 21 were mainly found as single carriage; in contrast serotypes 6B, 11A and 20, as well as infrequent serotypes, were isolated mainly as part of multiple carriage. Most 19A isolates were ST193 but most serotypes showed high genetic heterogeneity. Changes in the pneumococci colonizing each child were frequent and the same serotype detected on two occasions frequently showed a different genotype. By multiplex-PCR, 100% of pneumococci could be detected and 94% could be serotyped versus 80.3% by the Quellung reaction and Pneumotest-Latex in combination (p < 0.001).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Rates of <it>S. pneumoniae </it>carriage and multiple colonization were very high. Prevalent serotypes differed from those found in similar studies in the pre-vaccination period. In the same child, clearance of a pneumococcal strain and acquisition of a new one was frequent in a short period of time. The most effective technique for detecting pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriers was multiplex-PCR.</p

Biotic resistance to invasion along an estuarine gradient

Biotic resistance is the ability of native communities to repel the establishment of invasive species. Predation by native species may confer biotic resistance to communities, but the environmental context under which this form of biotic resistance occurs is not well understood. We evaluated several factors that influence the distribution of invasive Asian mussels (Musculista senhousia) in Mission Bay, a southern California estuary containing an extensive eelgrass (Zostera marina) habitat. Asian mussels exhibit a distinct spatial pattern of invasion, with extremely high densities towards the back of Mission Bay (up to 4,000 m−2) in contrast with near-complete absence at sites towards the front of the bay. We established that recruits arrived at sites where adult mussels were absent and found that dense eelgrass does not appear to preclude Asian mussel growth and survival. Mussel survival and growth were high in predator-exclusion plots throughout the bay, but mussel survival was low in the front of the bay when plots were open to predators. Additional experiments revealed that consumption by spiny lobsters (Panulirus interruptus) and a gastropod (Pteropurpura festiva) likely are the primary factors responsible for resistance to Asian mussel invasion. However, biotic resistance was dependent on location within the estuary (for both species) and also on the availability of a hard substratum (for P. festiva). Our findings indicate that biotic resistance in the form of predation may be conferred by higher order predators, but that the strength of resistance may strongly vary across estuarine gradients and depend on the nature of the locally available habitat

Vaccine antigens modulate the innate response of monocytes to Al(OH)3.

Aluminum-based adjuvants have widely been used in human vaccines since 1926. In the absence of antigens, aluminum-based adjuvants can initiate the inflammatory preparedness of innate cells, yet the impact of antigens on this response has not been investigated so far. In this study, we address the modulating effect of vaccine antigens on the monocyte-derived innate response by comparing processes initiated by Al(OH)3 and by Infanrix, an Al(OH)3-adjuvanted trivalent combination vaccine (DTaP), containing diphtheria toxoid (D), tetanus toxoid (T) and acellular pertussis (aP) vaccine antigens. A systems-wide analysis of stimulated monocytes was performed in which full proteome analysis was combined with targeted transcriptome analysis and cytokine analysis. This comprehensive study revealed four major differences in the monocyte response, between plain Al(OH)3 and DTaP stimulation conditions: (I) DTaP increased the anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10, whereas Al(OH)3 did not; (II) Al(OH)3 increased the gene expression of IFNγ, IL-2 and IL-17a in contrast to the limited induction or even downregulation by DTaP; (III) increased expression of type I interferons-induced proteins was not observed upon DTaP stimulation, but was observed upon Al(OH)3 stimulation; (IV) opposing regulation of protein localization pathways was observed for Al(OH)3 and DTaP stimulation, related to the induction of exocytosis by Al(OH)3 alone. This study highlights that vaccine antigens can antagonize Al(OH)3-induced programming of the innate immune responses at the monocyte level

Effects of Trophic Skewing of Species Richness on Ecosystem Functioning in a Diverse Marine Community

Widespread overharvesting of top consumers of the world’s ecosystems has “skewed” food webs, in terms of biomass and species richness, towards a generally greater domination at lower trophic levels. This skewing is exacerbated in locations where exotic species are predominantly low-trophic level consumers such as benthic macrophytes, detritivores, and filter feeders. However, in some systems where numerous exotic predators have been added, sometimes purposefully as in many freshwater systems, food webs are skewed in the opposite direction toward consumer dominance. Little is known about how such modifications to food web topology, e.g., changes in the ratio of predator to prey species richness, affect ecosystem functioning. We experimentally measured the effects of trophic skew on production in an estuarine food web by manipulating ratios of species richness across three trophic levels in experimental mesocosms. After 24 days, increasing macroalgal richness promoted both plant biomass and grazer abundance, although the positive effect on plant biomass disappeared in the presence of grazers. The strongest trophic cascade on the experimentally stocked macroalgae emerged in communities with a greater ratio of prey to predator richness (bottom-rich food webs), while stronger cascades on the accumulation of naturally colonizing algae (primarily microalgae with some early successional macroalgae that recruited and grew in the mesocosms) generally emerged in communities with greater predator to prey richness (the more top-rich food webs). These results suggest that trophic skewing of species richness and overall changes in food web topology can influence marine community structure and food web dynamics in complex ways, emphasizing the need for multitrophic approaches to understand the consequences of marine extinctions and invasions

Novel copy number variants in children with autism and additional developmental anomalies

Autism is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by three core symptom domains: ritualistic-repetitive behaviors, impaired social interaction, and impaired communication and language development. Recent studies have highlighted etiologically relevant recurrent copy number changes in autism, such as 16p11.2 deletions and duplications, as well as a significant role for unique, novel variants. We used Affymetrix 250K GeneChip Microarray technology (either NspI or StyI) to detect microdeletions and duplications in a subset of children from the Autism Genetic Resource Exchange (AGRE). In order to enrich our sample for potentially pathogenic CNVs we selected children with autism who had additional features suggestive of chromosomal loss associated with developmental disturbance (positive criteria filter) but who had normal cytogenetic testing (negative criteria filter). We identified families with the following features: at least one child with autism who also had facial dysmorphology, limb or digit abnormalities, or ocular abnormalities. To detect changes in copy number we used a publicly available program, Copy Number Analyser for GeneChip® (CNAG) Ver. 2.0. We identified novel deletions and duplications on chromosomes 1q24.2, 3p26.2, 4q34.2, and 6q24.3. Several of these deletions and duplications include new and interesting candidate genes for autism such as syntaxin binding protein 5 (STXBP5 also known as tomosyn) and leucine rich repeat neuronal 1 (LRRN1 also known as NLRR1). Lastly, our data suggest that rare and potentially pathogenic microdeletions and duplications may have a substantially higher prevalence in children with autism and additional developmental anomalies than in children with autism alone