A parameterisation of the soot aging for global climate models

International audienceThe representation of soot in global climate models is desirable since it contributes to both the direct and indirect climate effect. While freshly emitted soot is initially hydrophobic and externally mixed, it can be transferred into an internal mixture by coagulation, condensation or photochemical processes. These aging processes affect the hygroscopic qualities and hence the growth behaviour, the optical properties and eventually the lifetime of the soot particles. However, due to computational limits the aging of soot in global climate models is often only parameterised by an estimated turnover rate resulting in a lifetime of soot of several days. Based on the results of our simulations with a comprehensive mesoscale model, we derive the timescale on which diesel soot is transferred from an external to internal mixture, and propose a parameterisation for the use in global climate models. This parameterisation is applicable to continental conditions in industrialised areas as can be found in Central Europe and North America. For daytime conditions, away from the sources, condensation is dominant and the aging process occurs very fast with a timescale of ?=2 h. During night time condensation is not effective. Then coagulation is the most important aging process and our parameterisation leads to a timescale between 10 h and 40 h

Soot aging time scales in polluted regions during day and night

The aging of soot is one of the key uncertainties in the estimation of both the direct and indirect climate effect. While freshly emitted soot is initially hydrophobic and externally mixed, it can be transferred into an internal mixture by coagulation, condensation or photochemical processes. These aging processes affect the hygroscopic qualities and hence the growth behaviour, the optical properties and eventually the lifetime of the soot particles. However, due to computational limits the aging of soot in global climate models is often only parameterised by an estimated turnover rate resulting in a lifetime of soot of several days. Hence, the aging process of soot is one of the key uncertainties governing the burden and effect of black carbon. In this study, we discuss the time scale on which diesel soot is transferred from an external to an internal mixture based on the results of our simulations with a comprehensive mesoscale model. For daytime conditions during summer condensation of sulphuric acid is dominant and the aging process occurs on a time scale of τ =8h close to the sources and τ =2h above the source region. During winter comparable time scales are found but ammonium nitrate becomes more important. During night time condensation is not effective. Then coagulation is the most important aging process and our results show time scales between 10h and 40h

Modeling the evolution of aerosol particles in a ship plume using PartMC-MOSAIC

This study investigates the evolution of ship-emitted aerosol particles using the stochastic particle-resolved model PartMC-MOSAIC (Particle Monte Carlo model-Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry). Comparisons of our results with observations from the QUANTIFY (Quantifying the Climate Impact of Global and European Transport Systems) study in 2007 in the English Channel and the Gulf of Biscay showed that the model was able to reproduce the observed evolution of total number concentration and the vanishing of the nucleation mode consisting of sulfate particles. Further process analysis revealed that during the first hour after emission, dilution reduced the total number concentration by four orders of magnitude, while coagulation reduced it by an additional order of magnitude. Neglecting coagulation resulted in an overprediction of more than one order of magnitude in the number concentration of particles smaller than 40 nm at a plume age of 100 s. Coagulation also significantly altered the mixing state of the particles, leading to a continuum of internal mixtures of sulfate and black carbon. The impact on cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations depended on the supersaturation threshold <i>S</i> at which CCN activity was evaluated. For the base case conditions, characterized by a low formation rate of secondary aerosol species, neglecting coagulation, but simulating condensation, led to an underestimation of CCN concentrations of about 37% for <i>S</i> = 0.3% at the end of the 14-h simulation. In contrast, for supersaturations higher than 0.7%, neglecting coagulation resulted in an overestimation of CCN concentration, about 75% for <i>S</i> = 1%. For <i>S</i> lower than 0.2% the differences between simulations including coagulation and neglecting coagulation were negligible. Neglecting condensation, but simulating coagulation did not impact the CCN concentrations below 0.2% and resulted in an underestimation of CCN concentrations for larger supersaturations, e.g., 18% for <i>S</i> = 0.6%. We also explored the role of nucleation for the CCN concentrations in the ship plume. For the base case the impact of nucleation on CCN concentrations was limited, but for a sensitivity case with higher formation rates of secondary aerosol over several hours, the CCN concentrations increased by an order of magnitude for supersaturation thresholds above 0.3%

Robust Bayes-Like Estimation: Rho-Bayes estimation

We consider the problem of estimating the joint distribution $P$ of $n$ independent random variables within the Bayes paradigm from a non-asymptotic point of view. Assuming that $P$ admits some density $s$ with respect to a given reference measure, we consider a density model $\overline S$ for $s$ that we endow with a prior distribution $\pi$ (with support $\overline S$) and we build a robust alternative to the classical Bayes posterior distribution which possesses similar concentration properties around $s$ whenever it belongs to the model $\overline S$. Furthermore, in density estimation, the Hellinger distance between the classical and the robust posterior distributions tends to 0, as the number of observations tends to infinity, under suitable assumptions on the model and the prior, provided that the model $\overline S$ contains the true density $s$. However, unlike what happens with the classical Bayes posterior distribution, we show that the concentration properties of this new posterior distribution are still preserved in the case of a misspecification of the model, that is when $s$ does not belong to $\overline S$ but is close enough to it with respect to the Hellinger distance.Comment: 68 page

The MESSy aerosol submodel MADE3 (v2.0b): description and a box model test

We introduce MADE3 (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications, 3rd generation; version: MADE3v2.0b), an aerosol dynamics submodel for application within the MESSy framework (Modular Earth Submodel System). MADE3 builds on the predecessor aerosol submodels MADE and MADE-in. Its main new features are the explicit representation of coarse mode particle interactions both with other particles and with condensable gases, and the inclusion of hydrochloric acid (HCl) / chloride (Cl) partitioning between the gas and condensed phases. The aerosol size distribution is represented in the new submodel as a superposition of nine lognormal modes: one for fully soluble particles, one for insoluble particles, and one for mixed particles in each of three size ranges (Aitken, accumulation, and coarse mode size ranges). <br><br> In order to assess the performance of MADE3 we compare it to its predecessor MADE and to the much more detailed particle-resolved aerosol model PartMC-MOSAIC in a box model simulation of an idealised marine boundary layer test case. MADE3 and MADE results are very similar, except in the coarse mode, where the aerosol is dominated by sea spray particles. Cl is reduced in MADE3 with respect to MADE due to the HCl / Cl partitioning that leads to Cl removal from the sea spray aerosol in our test case. Additionally, the aerosol nitrate concentration is higher in MADE3 due to the condensation of nitric acid on coarse mode particles. MADE3 and PartMC-MOSAIC show substantial differences in the fine particle size distributions (sizes &lesssim; 2 μm) that could be relevant when simulating climate effects on a global scale. Nevertheless, the agreement between MADE3 and PartMC-MOSAIC is very good when it comes to coarse particle size distributions (sizes &gtrsim; 2 μm), and also in terms of aerosol composition. Considering these results and the well-established ability of MADE in reproducing observed aerosol loadings and composition, MADE3 seems suitable for application within a global model

The ‘Galilean Style in Science’ and the Inconsistency of Linguistic Theorising

Chomsky’s principle of epistemological tolerance says that in theoretical linguistics contradictions between the data and the hypotheses may be temporarily tolerated in order to protect the explanatory power of the theory. The paper raises the following problem: What kinds of contradictions may be tolerated between the data and the hypotheses in theoretical linguistics? First a model of paraconsistent logic is introduced which differentiates between week and strong contradiction. As a second step, a case study is carried out which exemplifies that the principle of epistemological tolerance may be interpreted as the tolerance of week contradiction. The third step of the argumentation focuses on another case study which exemplifies that the principle of epistemological tolerance must not be interpreted as the tolerance of strong contradiction. The reason for the latter insight is the unreliability and the uncertainty of introspective data. From this finding the author draws the conclusion that it is the integration of different data types that may lead to the improvement of current theoretical linguistics and that the integration of different data types requires a novel methodology which, for the time being, is not available