Forecast Accuracy and Economic Gains from Bayesian Model Averaging using Time Varying Weights

Several Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using financial and macroeconomic time series. The results indicate that the proposed time varying model weight schemes outperform other combination schemes in terms of predictive and economic gains. In an empirical application using returns on the S&P 500 index, time varying model weights provide improved forecasts with substantial economic gains in an investment strategy including transaction costs. Another empirical example refers to forecasting US economic growth over the business cycle. It suggests that time varying combination schemes may be very useful in business cycle analysis and forecasting, as these may provide an early indicator for recessions

Andrija Tomašek, Slavko Zlatić - kronika života i rada, Narodno sveučilište Poreč - Centar za kulturu, Poreč 1985 ,69 str.

Post-aggression consolation is assumed to occur in humans as well as in chimpanzees. While consolation following peer aggression has been observed in children, systematic evidence of consolation in human adults is rare. We used surveillance camera footage of the immediate aftermath of nonfatal robberies to observe the behaviors and characteristics of victims and bystanders. Consistent with empathy explanations, we found that consolation was linked to social closeness rather than physical closeness. While females were more likely to console than males, males and females were equally likely to be consoled. Furthermore, we show that high levels of threat during the robbery increased the likelihood of receiving consolation afterwards. These patterns resemble post-aggression consolation in chimpanzees and suggest that emotions of empathic concern are involved in consolation across humans and chimpanzees

External validation of a model to predict the survival of patients presenting with a spinal epidural metastasis

The surgical treatment of spinal metastases is evolving. The major problem is the selection of patients who may benefit from surgical treatment. One of the criteria is an expected survival of at least 3 months. A prediction model has been previously developed. The present study has been performed in order to validate externally the model and to demonstrate that this model can be generalized to other institutions and other countries than the Netherlands. Data of 356 patients from five centers in Germany, Spain, Sweden, and the Netherlands who were treated for metastatic epidural spinal cord compression were collected. Hazard ratios in the test population corresponded with those of the developmental population. However, the observed and the expected survival were different. Analysis revealed that the baseline hazard function was significantly different. This tempted us to combine the data and develop a new prediction model. Estimating iteratively, a baseline hazard was composed. An adapted prediction model is presented. External validation of a prediction model revealed a difference in expected survival, although the relative contribution of the specific hazard ratios was the same as in the developmental population. This study emphasized the need to check the baseline hazard function in external validation. A new model has been developed using an estimated baseline hazar

An integrated multi-study analysis of intra-subject variability in cerebrospinal fluid amyloid-β concentrations collected by lumbar puncture and indwelling lumbar catheter

INTRODUCTION: Amyloid-β (Aβ) has been investigated as a diagnostic biomarker and therapeutic drug target. Recent studies found that cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) Aβ fluctuates over time, including as a diurnal pattern, and increases in absolute concentration with serial collection. It is currently unknown what effect differences in CSF collection methodology have on Aβ variability. In this study, we sought to determine the effect of different collection methodologies on the stability of CSF Aβ concentrations over time. METHODS: Grouped analysis of CSF Aβ levels from multiple industry and academic groups collected by either lumbar puncture (n=83) or indwelling lumbar catheter (n=178). Participants were either placebo or untreated subjects from clinical drug trials or observational studies. Participants had CSF collected by lumbar puncture or lumbar catheter for quantitation of Aβ concentration by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay. Data from all sponsors was converted to percent of the mean for Aβ40 and Aβ42 for comparison. Repeated measures analysis of variance was performed to assess for factors affecting the linear rise of Aβ concentrations over time. RESULTS: Analysis of studies collecting CSF via lumbar catheter revealed tremendous inter-subject variability of Aβ40 and Aβ42 as well as an Aβ diurnal pattern in all of the sponsors' studies. In contrast, Aβ concentrations from CSF samples collected at two time points by lumbar puncture showed no significant differences. Repeated measures analysis of variance found that only time and draw frequency were significantly associated with the slope of linear rise in Aβ40 and Aβ42 concentrations during the first 6 hours of collection. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our findings, we recommend minimizing the frequency of CSF draws in studies measuring Aβ levels and keeping the frequency standardized between experimental groups. The Aβ diurnal pattern was noted in all sponsors' studies and was not an artifact of study design. Averaging Aβ concentrations at each time point is recommended to minimize the effect of individual variability. Indwelling lumbar catheters are an invaluable research tool for following changes in CSF Aβ over 24-48 hours, but factors affecting Aβ concentration such as linear rise and diurnal variation need to be accounted for in planning study designs

Mutations in Potassium Channel KCND3 Cause Spinocerebellar Ataxia Type 19

OBJECTIVE: To identify the causative gene for the neurodegenerative disorder spinocerebellar ataxia type 19 (SCA19) located on chromosomal region 1p21-q21. METHODS: Exome sequencing was used to identify the causal mutation in a large SCA19 family. We then screened 230 ataxia families for mutations located in the same gene (KCND3, also known as Kv4.3) using high-resolution melting. SCA19 brain autopsy material was evaluated, and in vitro experiments using ectopic expression of wild-type and mutant Kv4.3 were used to study protein localization, stability, and channel activity by patch-clamping. RESULTS: We detected a T352P mutation in the third extracellular loop of the voltage-gated potassium channel KCND3 that cosegregated with the disease phenotype in our original family. We identified 2 more novel missense mutations in the channel pore (M373I) and the S6 transmembrane domain (S390N) in 2 other ataxia families. T352P cerebellar autopsy material showed severe Purkinje cell degeneration, with abnormal intracellular accumulation and reduced protein levels of Kv4.3 in their soma. Ectopic expression of all mutant proteins in HeLa cells revealed retention in the endoplasmic reticulum and enhanced protein instability, in contrast to wild-type Kv4.3 that was localized on the plasma membrane. The regulatory β subunit Kv channel interacting protein 2 was able to rescue the membrane localization and the stability of 2 of the 3 mutant Kv4.3 complexes. However, this either did not restore the channel function of the membrane-located mutant Kv4.3 complexes or restored it only partially. INTERPRETATION: KCND3 mutations cause SCA19 by impaired protein maturation and/or reduced channel function

ICTV Virus Taxonomy Profile: Ophioviridae

[EN] The Ophioviridae is a family of filamentous plant viruses, with single-stranded negative, and possibly ambisense, RNA genomes of 11.3-12.5 kb divided into 3-4 segments, each encapsidated separately. Virions are naked filamentous nucleocapsids, forming kinked circles of at least two different contour lengths. The sole genus, Ophiovirus, includes seven species. Four ophioviruses are soil-transmitted and their natural hosts include trees, shrubs, vegetables and bulbous or corm-forming ornamentals, both monocots and dicots. This is a summary of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) Report on the taxonomy of the Ophioviridae, which is available at http://www.ictv.global/report/ophioviridae.Production of this summary, the online chapter and associated resources was funded by a grant from the Wellcome Trust (WT108418AIA).Garcia, M.; Dal Bo, E.; Da Graca, JV.; Gago Zachert, SP.; Hammond, J.; Moreno, P.; Natsuaki, T.... (2017). ICTV Virus Taxonomy Profile: Ophioviridae. Journal of General Virology. 98(6):1161-1162. doi:10.1099/jgv.0.000836S1161116298