Identification of patterns for space-time event networks

This paper provides new tools for analyzing spatio-temporal event networks. We build time series of directed event networks for a set of spatial distances, and based on scan-statistics, the spatial distance that generates the strongest change of event network connections is chosen. In addition, we propose an empirical random network event generator to detect significant motifs throughout time. This generator preserves the spatial configuration but randomizes the order of the occurrence of events. To prevent the large number of links from masking the count of motifs, we propose using standardized counts of motifs at each time slot. Our methodology is able to detect interaction radius in space, build time series of networks, and describe changes in its topology over time, by means of identification of different types of motifs that allows for the understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of the phenomena. We illustrate our methodology by analyzing thefts occurred in Medellín (Colombia) between the years 2003 and 2015.Work supported by Red de Violencia y Criminalidad - Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia UNAD, Bogotá Colombia and Universidad Nacional de Colombia sede Bogotá

Crimen organizado y violencia homicida en ciudades intermedias

El presente libro compila un conjunto de investigaciones sobre las diferentes expresiones de la violencia homicida y el crimen organizado en Colombia, en el contexto de los esfuerzos discontinuos de construcción de Paz de la nación. Con perspectiva plural, muestra las distintas problemáticas de la violencia homicida, el conflicto armado y las reacciones de los afectados, así como los distintos impactos en un conjunto de ciudades intermedias. Abarca un conjunto de espacios urbanos diversos dentro del vasto y profundo territorio colombiano. Además de las lógicas de violencia homicida y de las actividades de organizaciones criminales en cada ciudad seleccionada en el libro, los autores exploran, en diversas formas, cuáles son las respuestas de los actores públicos, de la sociedad y los actores ilícitos armados, así como la manera en que las distintas violencias afectan las posibilidades de construcción de paz

Morbi-Mortality of the Victims of Internal Conflict and Poor Population in the Risaralda Province, Colombia

This work studies the health status of two populations similar in most social and environmental interactions but one: the individuals from one population are victims of an internal armed conflict. Both populations are located in the Risaralda province, Colombia and the data for this study results from a combination of administrative records from the health system, between 2011 and 2016. We implemented a methodology based on graph theory that defines the system as a set of heterogeneous social actors, including individuals as well as organizations, embedded in a biological environment. The model of analysis uses the diagnoses in medical records to detect morbidity and mortality patterns for each individual (ego-networks), and assumes that these patterns contain relevant information about the effects of the actions of social actors, in a given environment, on the status of health. The analysis of the diagnoses and causes of specific mortality, following the Social Network Analysis framework, shows similar morbidity and mortality rates for both populations. However, the diagnoses’ patterns show that victims portray broader interactions between diagnoses, including mental and behavioral disorders, due to the hardships of this population

Dinámica migratoria en Risaralda, Colombia: modelo basado en agentes

Se presenta un modelo basado en agentes para estudiar el comportamiento migratorio del departamento de Risaralda, Colombia. Para su construcción se consideraron tres elementos fundamentales en la dinámica poblacional: la toma de decisión de migrar, con el desarrollo de un modelo bayesiano; el componente de atracción, a través de un modelo gravitacional; y la aplicación del enfoque minimalista usando modelos basados en agentes en estudios de la migración por decisión. Los resultados evidencian que la dinámica migratoria del departamento tiene rutas con alta concentración de capital social, que condicionan el arribo y la expulsión poblacional, modificando su estructura

Using Spatial Patterns of COVID-19 to Build a Framework for Economic Reactivation

In this article, we propose an application of humanitarian logistics theory to build a supportive framework for economic reactivation and pandemic management based on province vulnerability against COVID-19. The main research question is which factors are related to COVID-19 mortality between Peruvian provinces? We conduct a spatial regression analysis to explore which factors determine the differences in COVID-19 cumulative mortality rates for 189 Peruvian provinces up to December 2020. The most vulnerable provinces are characterized by having low outcomes of long-run poverty and high population density. Low poverty means high economic activity, which leads to more deaths due to COVID-19. There is a lack of supply in the set of relief goods defined as Pandemic Response and Recovery Supportive Goods and Services (PRRSGS). These goods must be delivered in order to mitigate the risk associated with COVID-19. A supportive framework for economic reactivation can be built based on regression results and a delivery strategy can be discussed according to the spatial patterns that we found for mortality rates

Challenges in Micro and Small Food Enterprises during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Ecuador

Micro and small enterprises (MSEs) play a significant role in developing countries such as Ecuador. The food and beverage industry is essential for Ecuador’s economy, contributing approximately 5% to its GDP. Focusing on the impact of COVID-19 on the industry, this mixed research takes a qualitative and quantitative approach involving four stages: foundation, prefield, field, and reporting. The fieldwork was carried out when Ecuador’s economy reopened in September 2020, which saw demand increase gradually, production capacity recovering, mobility return to normal levels, and curfew restrictions reduced. As far as biosecurity protocols were concerned, communities were allowed to resume pre-pandemic activities, provided they complied with social distancing, permanent mask wearing, and strict cleaning procedures. The effect on each company’s process depends on the activities they adopted to mitigate the risk of the COVID-19 pandemic risk, e.g., service companies experienced, on average, a 22% cost increase due to the purchase of cleaning supplies, while manufacturing companies were more likely to have related measures in place and so the effect on them was on a comparatively smaller scale

Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on surgery for indeterminate thyroid nodules (THYCOVID): a retrospective, international, multicentre, cross-sectional study

Background: Since its outbreak in early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has diverted resources from non-urgent and elective procedures, leading to diagnosis and treatment delays, with an increased number of neoplasms at advanced stages worldwide. The aims of this study were to quantify the reduction in surgical activity for indeterminate thyroid nodules during the COVID-19 pandemic; and to evaluate whether delays in surgery led to an increased occurrence of aggressive tumours. Methods: In this retrospective, international, cross-sectional study, centres were invited to participate in June 22, 2022; each centre joining the study was asked to provide data from medical records on all surgical thyroidectomies consecutively performed from Jan 1, 2019, to Dec 31, 2021. Patients with indeterminate thyroid nodules were divided into three groups according to when they underwent surgery: from Jan 1, 2019, to Feb 29, 2020 (global prepandemic phase), from March 1, 2020, to May 31, 2021 (pandemic escalation phase), and from June 1 to Dec 31, 2021 (pandemic decrease phase). The main outcomes were, for each phase, the number of surgeries for indeterminate thyroid nodules, and in patients with a postoperative diagnosis of thyroid cancers, the occurrence of tumours larger than 10 mm, extrathyroidal extension, lymph node metastases, vascular invasion, distant metastases, and tumours at high risk of structural disease recurrence. Univariate analysis was used to compare the probability of aggressive thyroid features between the first and third study phases. The study was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05178186. Findings: Data from 157 centres (n=49 countries) on 87 467 patients who underwent surgery for benign and malignant thyroid disease were collected, of whom 22 974 patients (18 052 [78·6%] female patients and 4922 [21·4%] male patients) received surgery for indeterminate thyroid nodules. We observed a significant reduction in surgery for indeterminate thyroid nodules during the pandemic escalation phase (median monthly surgeries per centre, 1·4 [IQR 0·6-3·4]) compared with the prepandemic phase (2·0 [0·9-3·7]; p<0·0001) and pandemic decrease phase (2·3 [1·0-5·0]; p<0·0001). Compared with the prepandemic phase, in the pandemic decrease phase we observed an increased occurrence of thyroid tumours larger than 10 mm (2554 [69·0%] of 3704 vs 1515 [71·5%] of 2119; OR 1·1 [95% CI 1·0-1·3]; p=0·042), lymph node metastases (343 [9·3%] vs 264 [12·5%]; OR 1·4 [1·2-1·7]; p=0·0001), and tumours at high risk of structural disease recurrence (203 [5·7%] of 3584 vs 155 [7·7%] of 2006; OR 1·4 [1·1-1·7]; p=0·0039). Interpretation: Our study suggests that the reduction in surgical activity for indeterminate thyroid nodules during the COVID-19 pandemic period could have led to an increased occurrence of aggressive thyroid tumours. However, other compelling hypotheses, including increased selection of patients with aggressive malignancies during this period, should be considered. We suggest that surgery for indeterminate thyroid nodules should no longer be postponed even in future instances of pandemic escalation. Funding: None

Notes for genera – Ascomycota

Knowledge of the relationships and thus the classification of fungi, has developed rapidly with increasingly widespread use of molecular techniques, over the past 10--15 years, and continues to accelerate. Several genera have been found to be polyphyletic, and their generic concepts have subsequently been emended. New names have thus been introduced for species which are phylogenetically distinct from the type species of particular genera. The ending of the separate naming of morphs of the same species in 2011, has also caused changes in fungal generic names. In order to facilitate access to all important changes, it was desirable to compile these in a single document. The present article provides a list of generic names of Ascomycota (approximately 6500 accepted names published to the end of 2016), including those which are lichen-forming. Notes and summaries of the changes since the last edition of `Ainsworth Bisby's Dictionary of the Fungi' in 2008 are provided. The notes include the number of accepted species, classification, type species (with location of the type material), culture availability, life-styles, distribution, and selected publications that have appeared since 2008. This work is intended to provide the foundation for updating the ascomycete component of the ``Without prejudice list of generic names of Fungi'' published in 2013, which will be developed into a list of protected generic names. This will be subjected to the XIXth International Botanical Congress in Shenzhen in July 2017 agreeing to a modification in the rules relating to protected lists, and scrutiny by procedures determined by the Nomenclature Committee for Fungi (NCF). The previously invalidly published generic names Barriopsis, Collophora (as Collophorina), Cryomyces, Dematiopleospora, Heterospora (as Heterosporicola), Lithophila, Palmomyces (as Palmaria) and Saxomyces are validated, as are two previously invalid family names, Bartaliniaceae and Wiesneriomycetaceae. Four species of Lalaria, which were invalidly published are transferred to Taphrina and validated as new combinations. Catenomycopsis Tibell Constant. is reduced under Chaenothecopsis Vain., while Dichomera Cooke is reduced under Botryosphaeria Ces. De Not. (Art. 59)