Cloud feedbacks in extratopical cyclones: insight from long-term satellite data and high-resolution global simulations

A negative extratropical shortwave cloud feedback driven by changes in cloud optical depth is a feature of global climate models (GCMs). A robust positive trend in observed liquid water path (LWP) over the last two decades across the warming Southern Ocean supports the negative shortwave cloud feedback predicted by GCMs. This feature has been proposed to be due to transitions from ice to liquid with warming. To gain insight into the shortwave cloud feedback we examine extratropical cyclone variability and the response of extratropical cyclones to transient warming in GCM simulations. Multi-Sensor Advanced Climatology Liquid Water Path (MAC-LWP) microwave observations of cyclone properties from the period 1992–2015 are contrasted with GCM simulations, with horizontal resolutions ranging from 7 km to hundreds of kilometers. We find that inter-cyclone variability in LWP in both observations and models is strongly driven by the moisture flux along the cyclone's warm conveyor belt (WCB). Stronger WCB moisture flux enhances the LWP within cyclones. This relationship is replicated in GCMs, although its strength varies substantially across models. It is found that more than 80 % of the enhancement in Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical cyclone LWP in GCMs in response to a transient 4 K warming can be predicted based on the relationship between the WCB moisture flux and cyclone LWP in the historical climate and their change in moisture flux between the historical and warmed climates. Further, it is found that that the robust trend in cyclone LWP over the Southern Ocean in observations and GCMs is consistent with changes in the moisture flux. We propose two cloud feedbacks acting within extratropical cyclones: a negative feedback driven by Clausius–Clapeyron increasing water vapor path (WVP), which enhances the amount of water vapor available to be fluxed into the cyclone, and a feedback moderated by changes in the life cycle and vorticity of cyclones under warming, which changes the rate at which existing moisture is imported into the cyclone. Both terms contribute to increasing LWP within the cyclone. While changes in moisture flux predict cyclone LWP trends in the current climate and the majority of changes in LWP in transient warming simulations, a portion of the LWP increase in response to climate change that is unexplained by increasing moisture fluxes may be due to phase transitions. The variability in LWP within cyclone composites is examined to understand what cyclonic regimes the mixed-phase cloud feedback is relevant to. At a fixed WCB moisture flux cyclone LWP increases with increasing sea surface temperature (SST) in the half of the composite poleward of the low and decreases in the half equatorward of the low in both GCMs and observations. Cloud-top phase partitioning observed by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) indicates that phase transitions may be driving increases in LWP in the poleward half of cyclones

Separation Management: Automation Reliability Meta-Analysis and Conflict Probe Reliability Analysis

Objective: The purpose of this study is to establish whether a valid performance criterion exists to determine the acceptability of the En Route Automation Modernization (ERAM) Conflict Probe\u2019s conflict-detection accuracy and to evaluate observed accuracy against this criterion. Background: The Conflict Probe can exhibit very high or very low accuracy depending on the analysis technique. It is necessary to establish both an empirically backed criterion for accuracy and the appropriate accuracy analyses and metrics. Method: A meta-analysis was conducted on Human Factors automation reliability literature; an additional analysis was done on the results of probe reliability studies by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Concept Analysis branch to derive various accuracy metrics. The results were compared to determine the acceptability of the conflict probe accuracy. Results: The meta-analysis produced an estimated criterion of 65% correct responses for automation to improve performance, but this estimate is subject to a broad confidence interval due to variability in the source data from the literature. The probe performance exceeded the 65% value when giving credit for all correct rejections, but it fell short when not giving credit for correct rejections. Another metric, Positive Predictive Value (PPV, the percent of alerts that are valid), is operationally meaningful and its values demonstrated large accuracy improvements over baseline with the FAA Concept Analysis\u2019 parametric adjustments, but a PPV cutoff criterion could not be established from the meta-analysis. Conclusion: The present results provide insight on several fronts, but operational input is essential to determine (1) a more justifiable air traffic control-specific accuracy criterion and (2) which aircraft encounters are appropriate to include in a test set for accuracy assessment. Automation responses should only increase the value of an accuracy metric to the extent that the responses add informational value for the controller. Applications: The present results will be used in the design of an evaluation to derive a set of operationally meaningful aircraft encounters. Different measures of accuracy, such as PPV, also merit further exploration

Quantification of Visual Field Loss in Age-Related Macular Degeneration

Background An evaluation of standard automated perimetry (SAP) and short wavelength automated perimetry (SWAP) for the central 10–2 visual field test procedure in patients with age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is presented in order to determine methods of quantifying the central sensitivity loss in patients at various stages of AMD. Methods 10–2 SAP and SWAP Humphrey visual fields and stereoscopic fundus photographs were collected in 27 eyes of 27 patients with AMD and 22 eyes of 22 normal subjects. Results Mean Deviation and Pattern Standard Deviation (PSD) varied significantly with stage of disease in SAP (both p<0.001) and SWAP (both p<0.001), but post hoc analysis revealed overlap of functional values among stages. In SWAP, indices of focal loss were more sensitive to detecting differences in AMD from normal. SWAP defects were greater in depth and area than those in SAP. Central sensitivity (within 1°) changed by −3.9 and −4.9 dB per stage in SAP and SWAP, respectively. Based on defect maps, an AMD Severity Index was derived. Conclusions Global indices of focal loss were more sensitive to detecting early stage AMD from normal. The SWAP sensitivity decline with advancing stage of AMD was greater than in SAP. A new AMD Severity Index quantifies visual field defects on a continuous scale. Although not all patients are suitable for SWAP examinations, it is of value as a tool in research studies of visual loss in AMD

Human Factors Evaluation of Conflict Resolution Advisories in the En Route Domain

Objective: In this human-in-the-loop simulation experiment, we evaluated how Conflict Resolution Advisories (CRA) affected en route controllers. Background: Controllers currently use a conflict probe and trial planning tool, known as the User Request Evaluation Tool (URET), which is available on the Radar Associate Position. However, under Trajectory-Based Operations\u2014that is, Separation Management Modern Procedures (SepMan)\u2014several capabilities will become available to the Radar Position, including probed menus, conflict detection and trial planning, and support for multiple separation minima within a sector\u2018s airspace. The CRA Program is built upon the SepMan concept and will provide a proposed solution to a potential conflict as soon as a controller initiates the entry of a clearance. Method: Twelve current en route Certified Professional Controllers from Air Route Traffic Control Centers participated in the experiment. Results: CRA capabilities did not change controller workload nor time and distance flown by aircraft in the sector. Analysis of tactical and strategic conflict alerts show that controllers solved potential conflicts quickly when CRA was available. Most of the participants\u2018 subjective ratings favored the CRA, and participants expressed that CRA was a useful concept. Conclusion: The results show an advantage of CRA on some air traffic control tasks. In general, CRA was accepted by the participant controllers. Application: With a few modifications of the current CRA features and functions, the authors believe that CRA will be a useful automation tool for air traffic controllers

Design and baseline characteristics of the finerenone in reducing cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in diabetic kidney disease trial

Background: Among people with diabetes, those with kidney disease have exceptionally high rates of cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality and progression of their underlying kidney disease. Finerenone is a novel, nonsteroidal, selective mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist that has shown to reduce albuminuria in type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) while revealing only a low risk of hyperkalemia. However, the effect of finerenone on CV and renal outcomes has not yet been investigated in long-term trials. Patients and Methods: The Finerenone in Reducing CV Mortality and Morbidity in Diabetic Kidney Disease (FIGARO-DKD) trial aims to assess the efficacy and safety of finerenone compared to placebo at reducing clinically important CV and renal outcomes in T2D patients with CKD. FIGARO-DKD is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group, event-driven trial running in 47 countries with an expected duration of approximately 6 years. FIGARO-DKD randomized 7,437 patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate >= 25 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and albuminuria (urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio >= 30 to <= 5,000 mg/g). The study has at least 90% power to detect a 20% reduction in the risk of the primary outcome (overall two-sided significance level alpha = 0.05), the composite of time to first occurrence of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for heart failure. Conclusions: FIGARO-DKD will determine whether an optimally treated cohort of T2D patients with CKD at high risk of CV and renal events will experience cardiorenal benefits with the addition of finerenone to their treatment regimen. Trial Registration: EudraCT number: 2015-000950-39; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02545049

Faster Command Input Using the Multimodal Controller Working Position "TriControl"

TriControl is a controller working position (CWP) prototype developed by German Aerospace Center (DLR) to enable more natural, efficient, and faster command inputs. The prototype integrates three input modalities: speech recognition, eye tracking, and multi-touch sensing. Air traffic controllers may use all three modalities simultaneously to build commands that will be forwarded to the pilot and to the air traffic management (ATM) system. This paper evaluates possible speed improvements of TriControl compared to conventional systems involving voice transmission and manual data entry. 26 air traffic controllers participated in one of two air traffic control simulation sub-studies, one with each input system. Results show potential of a 15% speed gain for multimodal controller command input in contrast to conventional inputs. Thus, the use and combination of modern human machine interface (HMI) technologies at the CWP can increase controller productivity