A predictive model for kidney transplant graft survival using machine learning

Kidney transplantation is the best treatment for end-stage renal failure patients. The predominant method used for kidney quality assessment is the Cox regression-based, kidney donor risk index. A machine learning method may provide improved prediction of transplant outcomes and help decision-making. A popular tree-based machine learning method, random forest, was trained and evaluated with the same data originally used to develop the risk index (70,242 observations from 1995-2005). The random forest successfully predicted an additional 2,148 transplants than the risk index with equal type II error rates of 10%. Predicted results were analyzed with follow-up survival outcomes up to 240 months after transplant using Kaplan-Meier analysis and confirmed that the random forest performed significantly better than the risk index (p<0.05). The random forest predicted significantly more successful and longer-surviving transplants than the risk index. Random forests and other machine learning models may improve transplant decisions.Comment: This work has been published: Pahl ES, Street WN, Johnson HJ, Reed AI. "A Predictive Model for Kidney Transplant Graft Survival Using Machine Learning." 4th International Conference on Computer Science and Information Technology (COMIT 2020), November 28-29, 2020, Dubai, UAE. ISBN: 978-1-925953-30-5. Volume 10, Number 16.10.5121/csit.2020.10160

E-cadherin can limit the transforming properties of activating β-catenin mutations

Wnt pathway deregulation is a common characteristic of many cancers. But only Colorectal Cancer predominantly harbours mutations in APC, whereas other cancer types (hepatocellular carcinoma, solid pseudopapillary tumours of pancreas) have activating mutations in β-catenin (CTNNB1). We have compared the dynamics and the potency of β-catenin mutations in vivo. Within the murine small intestine (SI), an activating mutation of β-catenin took much longer to achieve a Wnt deregulation and acquire a crypt-progenitor-cell (CPC) phenotype than Apc or Gsk3 loss. Within the colon, a single activating mutation of β-catenin was unable to drive Wnt deregulation or induce the CPC phenotype. This ability of β-catenin mutation to differentially transform the SI versus the colon correlated with significantly higher expression of the β-catenin binding partner E-cadherin. This increased expression is associated with a higher number of E-cadherin:β-catenin complexes at the membrane. Reduction of E-cadherin synergised with an activating mutation of β-catenin so there was now a rapid CPC phenotype within the colon and SI. Thus there is a threshold of β-catenin that is required to drive transformation and E-cadherin can act as a buffer to prevent β-catenin accumulation

A survey of statistics in three UK general practice journal

Background Many medical specialities have reviewed the statistical content of their journals. To our knowledge this has not been done in general practice. Given the main role of a general practitioner as a diagnostician we thought it would be of interest to see whether the statistical methods reported reflect the diagnostic process. Methods Hand search of three UK journals of general practice namely the British Medical Journal (general practice section), British Journal of General Practice and Family Practice over a one-year period (1 January to 31 December 2000). Results A wide variety of statistical techniques were used. The most common methods included t-tests and Chi-squared tests. There were few articles reporting likelihood ratios and other useful diagnostic methods. There was evidence that the journals with the more thorough statistical review process reported a more complex and wider variety of statistical techniques. Conclusions The BMJ had a wider range and greater diversity of statistical methods than the other two journals. However, in all three journals there was a dearth of papers reflecting the diagnostic process. Across all three journals there were relatively few papers describing randomised controlled trials thus recognising the difficulty of implementing this design in general practice

Multicentre, randomised clinical trial of paediatric concussion assessment of rest and exertion (PedCARE): a study to determine when to resume physical activities following concussion in children.

INTRODUCTION: Rest until symptom-free, followed by a progressive stepwise return to activities, is often prescribed in the management of paediatric concussions. Recent evidence suggests prolonged rest may hinder recovery, and early resumption of physical activity may be associated with more rapid recovery postconcussion. The primary objective is to determine whether the early reintroduction of non-contact physical activity beginning 72 hours postinjury reduces postconcussive symptoms at 2 weeks in children following an acute concussion as compared with a rest until asymptomatic protocol. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study is a randomised clinical trial across three Canadian academic paediatric emergency departments. A total of 350 participants, aged 10-17.99 years, who present within 48 hours of an acute concussion, will be recruited and randomly assigned to either the study intervention protocol (resumption of physical activity 72 hours postconcussion even if experiencing symptoms) or physical rest until fully asymptomatic. Participants will document their daily physical and cognitive activities. Follow-up questionnaires will be completed at 1, 2 and 4 weeks postinjury. Compliance with the intervention will be measured using an accelerometer (24 hours/day for 14 days). Symptoms will be measured using the validated Health and Behaviour Inventory. A linear multivariable model, adjusting for site and prognostically important covariates, will be tested to determine differences between groups. The proposed protocol adheres to the RCT-CONSORT guidelines. DISCUSSION: This trial will determine if early resumption of non-contact physical activity following concussion reduces the burden of concussion and will provide healthcare professionals with the evidence by which to recommend the best timing of reintroducing physical activities

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy versus debulking surgery in advanced tubo-ovarian cancers: pooled analysis of individual patient data from the EORTC 55971 and CHORUS trials

Background: Individual patient data from two randomised trials comparing neoadjuvant chemotherapy with upfront debulking surgery in advanced tubo-ovarian cancer were analysed to examine long-term outcomes for patients and to identify any preferable therapeutic approaches for subgroup populations. Methods: We did a per-protocol pooled analysis of individual patient data from the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) 55971 trial (NCT00003636) and the Medical Research Council Chemotherapy Or Upfront Surgery (CHORUS) trial (ISRCTN74802813). In the EORTC trial, eligible women had biopsy-proven International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage IIIC or IV invasive epithelial tubo-ovarian carcinoma. In the CHORUS trial, inclusion criteria were similar to those of the EORTC trial, and women with apparent FIGO stage IIIA and IIIB disease were also eligible. The main aim of the pooled analysis was to show non-inferiority in overall survival with neoadjuvant chemotherapy compared with upfront debulking surgery, using the reverse Kaplan-Meier method. Tests for heterogeneity were based on Cochran's Q heterogeneity statistic. Findings: Data for 1220 women were included in the pooled analysis, 670 from the EORTC trial and 550 from the CHORUS trial. 612 women were randomly allocated to receive upfront debulking surgery and 608 to receive neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Median follow-up was 7·6 years (IQR 6·0–9·6; EORTC, 9·2 years [IQR 7·3–10·4]; CHORUS, 5·9 years [IQR 4·3–7·4]). Median age was 63 years (IQR 56–71) and median size of the largest metastatic tumour at diagnosis was 8 cm (IQR 4·8–13·0). 55 (5%) women had FIGO stage II–IIIB disease, 831 (68%) had stage IIIC disease, and 230 (19%) had stage IV disease, with staging data missing for 104 (9%) women. In the entire population, no difference in median overall survival was noted between patients who underwent neoadjuvant chemotherapy and upfront debulking surgery (27·6 months [IQR 14·1–51·3] and 26·9 months [12·7–50·1], respectively; hazard ratio [HR] 0·97, 95% CI 0·86–1·09; p=0·586). Median overall survival for EORTC and CHORUS patients was significantly different at 30·2 months (IQR 15·7–53·7) and 23·6 months (10·5–46·9), respectively (HR 1·20, 95% CI 1·06–1·36; p=0·004), but was not heterogeneous (Cochran's Q, p=0·17). Women with stage IV disease had significantly better outcomes with neoadjuvant chemotherapy compared with upfront debulking surgery (median overall survival 24·3 months [IQR 14·1–47·6] and 21·2 months [10·0–36·4], respectively; HR 0·76, 95% CI 0·58–1·00; p=0·048; median progression-free survival 10·6 months [7·9–15·0] and 9·7 months [5·2–13·2], respectively; HR 0·77, 95% CI 0·59–1·00; p=0·049). Interpretation: Long-term follow-up data substantiate previous results showing that neoadjuvant chemotherapy and upfront debulking surgery result in similar overall survival in advanced tubo-ovarian cancer, with better survival in women with stage IV disease with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. This pooled analysis, with long-term follow-up, shows that neoadjuvant chemotherapy is a valuable treatment option for patients with stage IIIC–IV tubo-ovarian cancer, particularly in patients with a high tumour burden at presentation or poor performance status

Airglow and Aurorae at Dome A, Antarctica

Despite the absence of artificial light pollution at Antarctic plateau sites such as Dome A, other factors such as airglow, aurorae, and extended periods of twilight have the potential to adversely affect optical observations. We present a statistical analysis of the airglow and aurorae at Dome A using spectroscopic data from Nigel, an optical/near-IR spectrometer operating in the 300–850 nm range. These data complement photometric images from Gattini, a wide-field (90°) CCD camera with B, V, and R filters, allowing the background sky brightness to be disentangled from the various airglow and auroral emission lines. The median auroral contribution to the B, V, and R photometric bands is found to be 22.9, 23.4, and 23.0 mag arcsec^(-2), respectively. Auroral emissions most frequently occur between 10–23 hr local time, when up to 50% of observations are above airglow-level intensities. While infrequent, the strongest emissions detected occurred in the hours just prior to magnetic midnight. We are also able to quantify the amount of annual dark time available as a function of wavelength, as well as in the standard BVR photometric bands. On average, twilight ends when the Sun reaches a zenith distance of 102.6°

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Cosmological parameters from three seasons of data

We present constraints on cosmological and astrophysical parameters from high-resolution microwave background maps at 148 GHz and 218 GHz made by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) in three seasons of observations from 2008 to 2010. A model of primary cosmological and secondary foreground parameters is fit to the map power spectra and lensing deflection power spectrum, including contributions from both the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (tSZ) effect and the kinematic Sunyaev-Zeldovich (kSZ) effect, Poisson and correlated anisotropy from unresolved infrared sources, radio sources, and the correlation between the tSZ effect and infrared sources. The power ell^2 C_ell/2pi of the thermal SZ power spectrum at 148 GHz is measured to be 3.4 +\- 1.4 muK^2 at ell=3000, while the corresponding amplitude of the kinematic SZ power spectrum has a 95% confidence level upper limit of 8.6 muK^2. Combining ACT power spectra with the WMAP 7-year temperature and polarization power spectra, we find excellent consistency with the LCDM model. We constrain the number of effective relativistic degrees of freedom in the early universe to be Neff=2.79 +\- 0.56, in agreement with the canonical value of Neff=3.046 for three massless neutrinos. We constrain the sum of the neutrino masses to be Sigma m_nu < 0.39 eV at 95% confidence when combining ACT and WMAP 7-year data with BAO and Hubble constant measurements. We constrain the amount of primordial helium to be Yp = 0.225 +\- 0.034, and measure no variation in the fine structure constant alpha since recombination, with alpha/alpha0 = 1.004 +/- 0.005. We also find no evidence for any running of the scalar spectral index, dns/dlnk = -0.004 +\- 0.012.Comment: 26 pages, 22 figures. This paper is a companion to Das et al. (2013) and Dunkley et al. (2013). Matches published JCAP versio

Multi-institutional evaluation of a Pareto navigation gutomated radiotherapy planning solution for prostate cancer

Background: Current automated planning solutions are calibrated using trial and error or machine learning on historical datasets. Neither method allows for the intuitive exploration of differing trade-off options during calibration, which may aid in ensuring automated solutions align with clinical preference. Pareto navigation provides this functionality and offers a potential calibration alternative. The purpose of this study was to validate an automated radiotherapy planning solution with a novel multi-dimensional Pareto navigation calibration interface across two external institutions for prostate cancer. Methods: The implemented ‘Pareto Guided Automated Planning’ (PGAP) methodology was developed in RayStation using scripting and consisted of a Pareto navigation calibration interface built upon a ‘Protocol Based Automatic Iterative Optimisation’ planning framework. 30 previous patients were randomly selected by each institution (IA and IB), 10 for calibration and 20 for validation. Utilising the Pareto navigation interface automated protocols were calibrated to the institutions’ clinical preferences. A single automated plan (VMATAuto) was generated for each validation patient with plan quality compared against the previously treated clinical plan (VMATClinical) both quantitatively, using a range of DVH metrics, and qualitatively through blind review at the external institution. Results: PGAP led to marked improvements across the majority of rectal dose metrics, with Dmean reduced by 3.7 Gy and 1.8 Gy for IA and IB respectively (p < 0.001). For bladder, results were mixed with low and intermediate dose metrics reduced for IB but increased for IA. Differences, whilst statistically significant (p < 0.05) were small and not considered clinically relevant. The reduction in rectum dose was not at the expense of PTV coverage (D98% was generally improved with VMATAuto), but was somewhat detrimental to PTV conformality. The prioritisation of rectum over conformality was however aligned with preferences expressed during calibration and was a key driver in both institutions demonstrating a clear preference towards VMATAuto, with 31/40 considered superior to VMATClinical upon blind review. Conclusions: PGAP enabled intuitive adaptation of automated protocols to an institution’s planning aims and yielded plans more congruent with the institution’s clinical preference than the locally produced manual clinical plans

Multi-institutional evaluation of a Pareto navigation guided automated radiotherapy planning solution for prostate cancer

Background: Current automated planning solutions are calibrated using trial and error or machine learning on historical datasets. Neither method allows for the intuitive exploration of differing trade-off options during calibration, which may aid in ensuring automated solutions align with clinical preference. Pareto navigation provides this functionality and offers a potential calibration alternative. The purpose of this study was to validate an automated radiotherapy planning solution with a novel multi-dimensional Pareto navigation calibration interface across two external institutions for prostate cancer. Methods: The implemented ‘Pareto Guided Automated Planning’ (PGAP) methodology was developed in RayStation using scripting and consisted of a Pareto navigation calibration interface built upon a ‘Protocol Based Automatic Iterative Optimisation’ planning framework. 30 previous patients were randomly selected by each institution (IA and IB), 10 for calibration and 20 for validation. Utilising the Pareto navigation interface automated protocols were calibrated to the institutions’ clinical preferences. A single automated plan (VMATAuto) was generated for each validation patient with plan quality compared against the previously treated clinical plan (VMATClinical) both quantitatively, using a range of DVH metrics, and qualitatively through blind review at the external institution. Results: PGAP led to marked improvements across the majority of rectal dose metrics, with Dmean reduced by 3.7 Gy and 1.8 Gy for IA and IB respectively (p < 0.001). For bladder, results were mixed with low and intermediate dose metrics reduced for IB but increased for IA. Differences, whilst statistically significant (p < 0.05) were small and not considered clinically relevant. The reduction in rectum dose was not at the expense of PTV coverage (D98% was generally improved with VMATAuto), but was somewhat detrimental to PTV conformality. The prioritisation of rectum over conformality was however aligned with preferences expressed during calibration and was a key driver in both institutions demonstrating a clear preference towards VMATAuto, with 31/40 considered superior to VMATClinical upon blind review. Conclusions: PGAP enabled intuitive adaptation of automated protocols to an institution’s planning aims and yielded plans more congruent with the institution’s clinical preference than the locally produced manual clinical plans

An Auxin Transport-Based Model of Root Branching in Arabidopsis thaliana

Root architecture is a crucial part of plant adaptation to soil heterogeneity and is mainly controlled by root branching. The process of root system development can be divided into two successive steps: lateral root initiation and lateral root development/emergence which are controlled by different fluxes of the plant hormone auxin. While shoot architecture appears to be highly regular, following rules such as the phyllotactic spiral, root architecture appears more chaotic. We used stochastic modeling to extract hidden rules regulating root branching in Arabidopsis thaliana. These rules were used to build an integrative mechanistic model of root ramification based on auxin. This model was experimentally tested using plants with modified rhythm of lateral root initiation or mutants perturbed in auxin transport. Our analysis revealed that lateral root initiation and lateral root development/emergence are interacting with each other to create a global balance between the respective ratio of initiation and emergence. A mechanistic model based on auxin fluxes successfully predicted this property and the phenotype alteration of auxin transport mutants or plants with modified rythms of lateral root initiation. This suggests that root branching is controlled by mechanisms of lateral inhibition due to a competition between initiation and development/emergence for auxin