Diatoms as a sea-ice proxy : improving the accuracy of sea-ice reconstruction by re-analysing the northern North Atlantic training set for Fragilariopsis oceanica, Fragilariopsis reginae-jahniae and Fossula arctica, in addition to the chrysophyte cyst Archaeomonas sp.

Significant changes in sea-ice variability have occurred in the northern North Atlantic since the last deglaciation, resulting in global scale shifts in climate. By inferring the dynamic changes of palaeo seaice to past changes in climate, it is possible to predict future changes in response to anthropogenic climate change. Diatoms allow for detailed reconstructions of palaeoceanographic and sea-ice conditions, both qualitatively, using information of species ecologies and quantitatively, via a transfer function based upon diatom species optima and tolerances of the variable to be reconstructed. Three diatom species comprising a large portion of the training set are proxies for the presence of sea ice: Fragilariopsis oceanica, Fragilariopsis reginae-jahniae and Fossula arctica, have currently been grouped into one species – F. oceanica – in the large diatom training set of the northern North Atlantic region. The clustering of the species may result in an imprecise reconstruction of sea ice that does not take into account all the available ecological information. The proportions of the three species were recounted from the original surface sediment slides alongside the additional chrysophyte cyst Archaeomonas sp. and statistically analysed using Canoco and the R software package eHOF. A core from Kangerlussuaq Trough comprising the Late Holocene (~690–1498 Common Era) was also recounted and analysed using C2. The separated diatom species and chrysophyte cyst Archaeomonas sp. exhibited different relationships to both sea-ice concentration (aSIC) and sea surface temperature (aSST). The separated F. oceanica is a ‘cold-mixed’ water species occurring at cold aSST and both low and high aSIC. High abundances occur in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) where surficial meltwater is high during the spring bloom, with additional inputs from glacial meltwaters nearshore. F. reginae-jahniae is a sea-ice associated species related to cold aSST and high aSIC. High abundances occur in the low salinity Arctic Water dominated MIZ which experiences significant aSIC. F. arctica is a sea-ice associated species related to cold aSST and high aSIC. High abundances occur in the low salinity Arctic Water dominated MIZ which experiences high aSIC, particularly in polynya conditions. F. arctica can be considered a characteristic polynya species at high abundances. Archaeomonas sp. is a ‘cold-mixed’ water species related to both cold and relatively warm aSST and low and high aSIC. High abundances occur in both relatively warm ice-free Atlantic Water and also in cold high aSIC Arctic Water conditions rendering it a more complex indicator for aSST or aSIC proxy. However, the aversion to MIZ conditions indicates that Archaeomonas sp. is associated with a relatively saline unstratified water column. This is the first time that the distribution and ecology of Archaeomonas sp. has been presented. As such, the ecology described here can be used in future studies. The separation of the three diatom species is crucial for the ecological interpretation of downcore assemblage changes. It is also crucial for the application of transfer functions in order to have greater precision in reconstructing aSIC and assessing the influence of Arctic Water or Atlantic Water, even at low abundances

Quantifying the effects of background concentrations of crude oil pollution on sea ice albedo

Sea ice albedo plays an important role in modulating the climate of Earth and is affected by low background concentrations of oil droplets within the ice matrix that absorb solar radiation. In this study, the albedo response of three different types of bare sea ice (melting, first-year, and multi-year sea ice) are calculated at increasing mass ratios (0–1000 ng g−1) of crude oil by using a coupled atmosphere–sea ice radiative-transfer model (TUV-snow; Tropospheric Ultraviolet–Visible) over the optical wavelengths 400–700 nm. The different types of quasi-infinite-thickness sea ice exhibit different albedo responses to oil pollution, with a 1000 ng g−1 mass ratio of oil causing a decrease to 70.9 % in multi-year sea ice, 47.2 % in first-year sea ice, and 22.1 % in melting sea ice relative to the unpolluted albedo at a wavelength of 400 nm. The thickness of the sea ice is also an important factor, with realistic-thickness sea ices exhibiting similar results, albeit with a weaker albedo response for multi-year sea ice to 75.3 %, first-year sea ice to 66.3 %, and melting sea ice to 35.9 %. The type of oil also significantly affects the response of sea ice albedo, with a relatively opaque and heavy crude oil (Romashkino oil) causing a significantly larger decrease in sea ice albedo than a relatively transparent light crude oil (Petrobaltic oil). The size of the oil droplets polluting the oil also plays a minor role in the albedo response, with weathered submicrometre droplets (0.05–0.5 µm radius) of Romashkino oil being the most absorbing across the optical wavelengths considered. Therefore, the work presented here demonstrates that low background concentrations of small submicrometre- to micrometre-sized oil droplets have a significant effect on the albedo of bare sea ice. All three types of sea ice are sensitive to oil pollution; however, first-year sea ice and particularly melting sea ice are very sensitive to oil pollution.</p

Improving the paleoceanographic proxy tool kit – On the biogeography and ecology of the sea ice-associated species Fragilariopsis oceanica, Fragilariopsis reginae-jahniae and Fossula arctica in the northern North Atlantic

A long-term perspective is essential for understanding environmental change. To be able to access the past, environmental archives such as marine and lake sediments that store information in the form of diverse proxy records are used. Whilst many analytical techniques exist to extract the information stored in these proxy records, the critical assessment and refinement of current methods in addition to developing new methods is crucial to improving our understanding. This study aims to improve our knowledge on diatom species used for reconstructing ocean surface conditions, especially temperature and sea ice variability over time. We define the distribution and the relationship to sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentrations (SIC) of the species Fragilariopsis oceanica, Fragilariopsis reginae-jahniae and Fossula arctica using diatom training sets from the northern North Atlantic. We further assess the effect of separating these species compared to grouping them under F. oceanica, as has been done in the past. Our results suggest that while these three species share similarities such as the preference for stratified waters induced by sea ice or glacier meltwater, they also exhibit heterogeneous distributions across the northern North Atlantic, with individual optima for SST and SIC. This also affects quantitative reconstructions based on our data, resulting in lower SST and higher SIC estimates when the species are separated in the surface sediment and down-core diatom assemblages.Peer reviewe

Analytical strategies in human growth research

Human growth research requires knowledge of longitudinal statistical methods that can be analytically challenging. Even the assessment of growth between two ages is not as simple as subtracting the first measurement from the second, for example. This article provides an overview of the key analytical strategies available to human biologists in increasing order of complexity, starting with a review on how to express cross-sectional measurements of size, before covering growth (conditional regression models, regression with conditional growth measures), growth curves (individual growth curves, mixed effects growth curves, latent growth curves), and patterns of growth (growth mixture modeling). The article is not a statistical treatise and has been written by a human biologist for human biologists; as such, it should be accessible to anyone with training in at least basic statistics. A summary table linking each analytical strategy to its applications is provided to help investigators match their hypotheses and measurement schedules to an analysis plan. In addition, worked examples using data on non-Hispanic white participants in the Fels Longitudinal Study are used to illustrate how the analytical strategies might be applied to gain novel insight into human growth and its determinants and consequences. All too often, serial measurements are treated as cross-sectional in analyses that do not harness the power of longitudinal data. The broad goal of this article is to encourage the rigorous application of longitudinal statistical methods to human growth research

Plant-mediated effects on mosquito capacity to transmit human malaria

The ecological context in which mosquitoes and malaria parasites interact has received little attention, compared to the genetic and molecular aspects of malaria transmission. Plant nectar and fruits are important for the nutritional ecology of malaria vectors, but how the natural diversity of plant-derived sugar sources affects mosquito competence for malaria parasites is unclear. To test this, we infected Anopheles coluzzi, an important African malaria vector, with sympatric field isolates of Plasmodium falciparum, using direct membrane feeding assays. Through a series of experiments, we then examined the effects of sugar meals from Thevetia neriifolia and Barleria lupilina cuttings that included flowers, and fruit from Lannea microcarpa and Mangifera indica on parasite and mosquito traits that are key for determining the intensity of malaria transmission. We found that the source of plant sugar meal differentially affected infection prevalence and intensity, the development duration of the parasites, as well as the survival and fecundity of the vector. These effects are likely the result of complex interactions between toxic secondary metabolites and the nutritional quality of the plant sugar source, as well as of host resource availability and parasite growth. Using an epidemiological model, we show that plant sugar source can be a significant driver of malaria transmission dynamics, with some plant species exhibiting either transmission-reducing or -enhancing activities

Anastrozole versus tamoxifen for the prevention of locoregional and contralateral breast cancer in postmenopausal women with locally excised ductal carcinoma in situ (IBIS-II DCIS): a double-blind, randomised controlled trial

Background Third-generation aromatase inhibitors are more effective than tamoxifen for preventing recurrence in postmenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive invasive breast cancer. However, it is not known whether anastrozole is more effective than tamoxifen for women with hormone-receptor-positive ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Here, we compare the efficacy of anastrozole with that of tamoxifen in postmenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive DCIS. Methods In a double-blind, multicentre, randomised placebo-controlled trial, we recruited women who had been diagnosed with locally excised, hormone-receptor-positive DCIS. Eligible women were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio by central computer allocation to receive 1 mg oral anastrozole or 20 mg oral tamoxifen every day for 5 years. Randomisation was stratified by major centre or hub and was done in blocks (six, eight, or ten). All trial personnel, participants, and clinicians were masked to treatment allocation and only the trial statistician had access to treatment allocation. The primary endpoint was all recurrence, including recurrent DCIS and new contralateral tumours. All analyses were done on a modified intention-to-treat basis (in all women who were randomised and did not revoke consent for their data to be included) and proportional hazard models were used to compute hazard ratios and corresponding confidence intervals. This trial is registered at the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN37546358. Results Between March 3, 2003, and Feb 8, 2012, we enrolled 2980 postmenopausal women from 236 centres in 14 countries and randomly assigned them to receive anastrozole (1449 analysed) or tamoxifen (1489 analysed). Median follow-up was 7·2 years (IQR 5·6–8·9), and 144 breast cancer recurrences were recorded. We noted no statistically significant difference in overall recurrence (67 recurrences for anastrozole vs 77 for tamoxifen; HR 0·89 [95% CI 0·64–1·23]). The non-inferiority of anastrozole was established (upper 95% CI <1·25), but its superiority to tamoxifen was not (p=0·49). A total of 69 deaths were recorded (33 for anastrozole vs 36 for tamoxifen; HR 0·93 [95% CI 0·58–1·50], p=0·78), and no specific cause was more common in one group than the other. The number of women reporting any adverse event was similar between anastrozole (1323 women, 91%) and tamoxifen (1379 women, 93%); the side-effect profiles of the two drugs differed, with more fractures, musculoskeletal events, hypercholesterolaemia, and strokes with anastrozole and more muscle spasm, gynaecological cancers and symptoms, vasomotor symptoms, and deep vein thromboses with tamoxifen. Conclusions No clear efficacy differences were seen between the two treatments. Anastrozole offers another treatment option for postmenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive DCIS, which may be be more appropriate for some women with contraindications for tamoxifen. Longer follow-up will be necessary to fully evaluate treatment differences

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570