The impact of an extreme solar event on the middle atmosphere: a case study

A possible impact of an extreme solar particle event (ESPE) on the middle atmosphere is studied for present-day climate and geomagnetic conditions. We consider an ESPE with an occurrence probability of about 1 per millennium. In addition, we assume that the ESPE is followed by an extreme geomagnetic storm (GMS), and we compare the contribution of the two extreme events. The strongest known and best-documented ESPE of 774/5 CE is taken as a reference example and established estimates of the corresponding ionization rates are applied. The ionization rates due to the energetic particle precipitation (EPP) during an extreme GMS are upscaled from analyzed distributions of electron energy spectra of observed GMSs. The consecutive buildup of NOx and HOx by ionization is modeled in the high-top 3D chemistry circulation model KArlsruhe SImulation Model of the middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), using specified dynamics from ERA-Interim analyses up to the stratopause. A specific dynamical situation was chosen that includes an elevated stratosphere event during January and maximizes the vertical coupling between the northern polar mesosphere–lower thermosphere region and the stratosphere; it therefore allows us to estimate a maximum possible impact. The particle event initially produces about 65 Gmol of NOy, with 25 Gmol of excess NOy even after 1 year. The related ozone loss reaches up to 50 % in the upper stratosphere during the first weeks after the event and slowly descends to the mid-stratosphere. After about 1 year, 20 % ozone loss is still observed in the northern stratosphere. The GMS causes strong ozone reduction in the mesosphere but plays only a minor role in the reduction in total ozone. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), the long-lived NOy in the polar stratosphere, which is produced almost solely by the ESPE, is transported into the Antarctic polar vortex, where it experiences strong denitrification into the troposphere. For this special case, we estimate a NO3 washout that could produce a measurable signal in ice cores. The reduction in total ozone causes an increase of the UV erythema dose of less than 5 %, which maximizes in spring for northern latitudes of 30∘ and in summer for northern latitudes of about 60∘

Quantifying uncertainties of climate signals in chemistry climate models related to the 11-year solar cycle – Part 1: Annual mean response in heating rates, temperature, and ozone

Variations in the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) with the 11-year sunspot cycle have been shown to have a significant impact on temperatures and the mixing ratios of atmospheric constituents in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Uncertainties in modelling the effects of SSI variations arise from uncertainties in the empirical models reconstructing the prescribed SSI data set as well as from uncertainties in the chemistry–climate model (CCM) formulation. In this study CCM simulations with the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model and the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1)–Whole Atmosphere Chemistry Climate Model (WACCM) have been performed to quantify the uncertainties of the solar responses in chemistry and dynamics that are due to the usage of five different SSI data sets or the two CCMs. We apply a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) to separate the influence of the SSI data sets and the CCMs on the variability of the solar response in shortwave heating rates, temperature, and ozone. The solar response is derived from climatological differences of time slice simulations prescribing SSI for the solar maximum in 1989 and near the solar minimum in 1994. The SSI values for the solar maximum of each SSI data set are created by adding the SSI differences between November 1994 and November 1989 to a common SSI reference spectrum for near-solar-minimum conditions based on ATLAS-3 (Atmospheric Laboratory of Applications and Science-3). The ANOVA identifies the SSI data set with the strongest influence on the variability of the solar response in shortwave heating rates in the upper mesosphere and in the upper stratosphere–lower mesosphere. The strongest influence on the variability of the solar response in ozone and temperature is identified in the upper stratosphere–lower mesosphere. However, in the region of the largest ozone mixing ratio, in the stratosphere from 50 to 10 hPa, the SSI data sets do not contribute much to the variability of the solar response when the Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstructions-T (SATIRE-T) SSI data set is omitted. The largest influence of the CCMs on variability of the solar responses can be identified in the upper mesosphere. The solar response in the lower stratosphere also depends on the CCM used, especially in the tropics and northern hemispheric subtropics and mid-latitudes, where the model dynamics modulate the solar responses. Apart from the upper mesosphere, there are also regions where the largest fraction of the variability of the solar response is explained by randomness, especially for the solar response in temperature

The impact of sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) sinks on age of air climatologies and trends

Mean age of air (AoA) is a common diagnostic for the strength of the stratospheric overturning circulation in both climate models and observations. AoA climatologies and AoA trends over the recent decades of model simulations and proxies derived from observations of long-lived tracers do not agree. Satellite observations show much older air than climate models, and while most models compute a clear decrease in AoA over the last decades, a 30-year time series from measurements shows a statistically nonsignificant positive trend in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical middle stratosphere. Measurement-based AoA derivations are often founded on observations of the trace gas sulfur hexafluoride (SF$_{6}$), a fairly long-lived gas with a near-linear increase in emissions during recent decades. However, SF$_{6}$ has chemical sinks in the mesosphere that are not considered in most model studies. In this study, we explicitly compute the chemical SF$_{6}$ sinks based on chemical processes in the global chemistry climate model EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry). We show that good agreement between stratospheric AoA in EMAC and MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) is reached through the inclusion of chemical SF$_{6}$ sinks, as these sinks lead to a strong increase in the stratospheric AoA and, therefore, to a better agreement with MIPAS satellite observations. Remaining larger differences at high latitudes are addressed, and possible reasons for these differences are discussed. Subsequently, we demonstrate that the AoA trends are also strongly influenced by the chemical SF6 sinks. Under consideration of the SF$_{6}$ sinks, the AoA trends over the recent decades reverse sign from negative to positive. We conduct sensitivity simulations which reveal that this sign reversal does not result from trends in the stratospheric circulation strength nor from changes in the strength of the SF$_{6}$ sinks. We illustrate that even a constant SF$_{6}$ destruction rate causes a positive trend in the derived AoA, as the amount of depleted SF$_{6}$ scales with increasing SF$_{6}$ abundance itself. In our simulations, this effect overcompensates for the impact of the accelerating stratospheric circulation which naturally decreases AoA. Although various sources of uncertainties cannot be quantified in detail in this study, our results suggest that the inclusion of SF$_{6}$ depletion in models has the potential to reconcile the AoA trends of models and observations. We conclude the study with a first approach towards a correction to account for SF$_{6}$ loss and deduce that a linear correction might be applicable to values of AoA of up to 4 years

NOy_{y} production, ozone loss and changes in net radiative heating due to energetic particle precipitation in 2002–2010

We analyze the impact of energetic particle precipitation on the stratospheric nitrogen budget, ozone abundances and net radiative heating using results from three global chemistry-climate models considering solar protons and geomagnetic forcing due to auroral or radiation belt electrons. Two of the models cover the atmosphere up to the lower thermosphere, the source region of auroral NO production. Geomagnetic forcing in these models is included by prescribed ionization rates. One model reaches up to about 80 km, and geomagnetic forcing is included by applying an upper boundary condition of auroral NO mixing ratios parameterized as a function of geomagnetic activity. Despite the differences in the implementation of the particle effect, the resulting modeled NOy in the upper mesosphere agrees well between all three models, demonstrating that geomagnetic forcing is represented in a consistent way either by prescribing ionization rates or by prescribing NOy at the model top. Compared with observations of stratospheric and mesospheric NOy from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) instrument for the years 2002–2010, the model simulations reproduce the spatial pattern and temporal evolution well. However, after strong sudden stratospheric warmings, particle-induced NOy is underestimated by both high-top models, and after the solar proton event in October 2003, NOy is overestimated by all three models. Model results indicate that the large solar proton event in October 2003 contributed about 1–2 Gmol (10⁹ mol) NOy per hemisphere to the stratospheric NOy budget, while downwelling of auroral NOx from the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere contributes up to 4 Gmol NOy . Accumulation over time leads to a constant particle-induced background of about 0.5–1 Gmol per hemisphere during solar minimum, and up to 2 Gmol per hemisphere during solar maximum. Related negative anomalies of ozone are predicted by the models in nearly every polar winter, ranging from 10–50% during solar maximum to 2–10% during solar minimum. Ozone loss continues throughout polar summer after strong solar proton events in the Southern Hemisphere and after large sudden stratospheric warmings in the Northern Hemisphere. During mid-winter, the ozone loss causes a reduction of the infrared radiative cooling, i.e., a positive change of the net radiative heating (effective warming), in agreement with analyses of geomagnetic forcing in stratospheric temperatures which show a warming in the late winter upper stratosphere. In late winter and spring, the sign of the net radiative heating change turns to negative (effective cooling). This spring-time cooling lasts well into summer and continues until the following autumn after large solar proton events in the Southern Hemisphere, and after sudden stratospheric warmings in the Northern Hemisphere

Impact of chlorine ion chemistry on ozone loss in the middle atmosphere during very large solar proton events

Solar coronal mass ejections can accelerate charged particles, mostly protons, to high energies, causing solar proton events (SPEs). Such energetic particles can precipitate upon the Earth\u27s atmosphere, mostly in polar regions because of geomagnetic shielding. Here, SPE-induced chlorine activation due to ion chemistry can occur, and the activated chlorine depletes ozone in the polar middle atmosphere. We use the state-of-the-art 1D stacked-box Exoplanetary Terrestrial Ion Chemistry (ExoTIC) model of atmospheric ion and neutral composition to investigate such events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The Halloween SPE that occurred in late October 2003 is used as a test field for our study. This event has been extensively studied before using different 3D models and satellite observations. Our main purpose is to use such a large event that has been recorded by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on the Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT) to evaluate the performance of the ion chemistry model. Sensitivity tests were carried out for different model settings with a focus on the chlorine species of HOCl and ClONO2 as well as O3 and reactive nitrogen, NOy. The model simulations were performed in the Northern Hemisphere at a high latitude of 67.5∘ N, inside the polar cap. Comparison of the simulated effects against MIPAS observations for the Halloween SPE revealed rather good temporal agreement, also in terms of altitude range for HOCl, O3 and NOy. For ClONO2, good agreement was found in terms of altitude range. The model showed ClONO2 enhancements after the peak of the event. The best model setting was the one with full ion chemistry where O(1D) was set to photo-chemical equilibrium. HOCl and ozone changes are very well reproduced by the model, especially for nighttime. HOCl was found to be the main active chlorine species under nighttime conditions, resulting in an increase of more than 0.2 ppbv. Further, ClONO2 enhancements of 0.2–0.3 ppbv have been observed during both daytime and nighttime. Model settings that compared best with MIPAS observations were applied to an extreme solar event that occurred in AD 775, presumably once in a 1000-year event. With the model applied to this scenario, an assessment can be made about what is to be expected at worst for the effects of a SPE on the middle atmosphere, concentrating on the effects of ion chemistry compared to crude parameterizations. Here, a systematic analysis comparing the impact of the Halloween SPE and the extreme event on the Earth\u27s middle atmosphere is presented. As seen from the model simulations, both events were able to perturb the polar stratosphere and mesosphere with a high production of NOy and HOx. Longer-lasting and stronger stratospheric ozone loss was seen for the extreme event. A qualitative difference between the two events and a long-lasting impact on HOCl and HCl for the extreme event were found. Chlorine ion chemistry contributed to stratospheric ozone losses of 2.4 % for daytime and 10 % for nighttime during the Halloween SPE, as seen with time-dependent ionization rates applied to the model. Furthermore, while comparing the Halloween SPE and the extreme scenario, with ionization rate profiles applied just for the event day, the inclusion of chlorine ion chemistry added ozone losses of 10 % and 20 % respectively

Impact of chlorine ion chemistry on ozone loss in the middle atmosphere during very large solar proton events

Solar coronal mass ejections can accelerate charged particles, mostly protons, to high energies, causing solar proton events (SPEs). Such energetic particles can precipitate upon the Earth's atmosphere, mostly in polar regions because of geomagnetic shielding. Here, SPE-induced chlorine activation due to ion chemistry can occur, and the activated chlorine depletes ozone in the polar middle atmosphere. We use the state-of-the-art 1D stacked-box Exoplanetary Terrestrial Ion Chemistry (ExoTIC) model of atmospheric ion and neutral composition to investigate such events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The Halloween SPE that occurred in late October 2003 is used as a test field for our study. This event has been extensively studied before using different 3D models and satellite observations. Our main purpose is to use such a large event that has been recorded by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on the Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT) to evaluate the performance of the ion chemistry model. Sensitivity tests were carried out for different model settings with a focus on the chlorine species of HOCl and ClONO as well as O and reactive nitrogen, NOy. The model simulations were performed in the Northern Hemisphere at a high latitude of 67.5 N, inside the polar cap. Comparison of the simulated effects against MIPAS observations for the Halloween SPE revealed rather good temporal agreement, also in terms of altitude range for HOCl, O and NOy. For ClONO, good agreement was found in terms of altitude range. The model showed ClONO enhancements after the peak of the event. The best model setting was the one with full ion chemistry where O(1D) was set to photo-chemical equilibrium. HOCl and ozone changes are very well reproduced by the model, especially for nighttime. HOCl was found to be the main active chlorine species under nighttime conditions, resulting in an increase of more than 0.2 ppbv. Further, ClONO enhancements of 0.2-0.3 ppbv have been observed during both daytime and nighttime. Model settings that compared best with MIPAS observations were applied to an extreme solar event that occurred in AD 775, presumably once in a 1000-year event. With the model applied to this scenario, an assessment can be made about what is to be expected at worst for the effects of a SPE on the middle atmosphere, concentrating on the effects of ion chemistry compared to crude parameterizations. Here, a systematic analysis comparing the impact of the Halloween SPE and the extreme event on the Earth's middle atmosphere is presented. As seen from the model simulations, both events were able to perturb the polar stratosphere and mesosphere with a high production of NOy and HOx. Longer-lasting and stronger stratospheric ozone loss was seen for the extreme event. A qualitative difference between the two events and a long-lasting impact on HOCl and HCl for the extreme event were found. Chlorine ion chemistry contributed to stratospheric ozone losses of 2.4 % for daytime and 10 % for nighttime during the Halloween SPE, as seen with time-dependent ionization rates applied to the model. Furthermore, while comparing the Halloween SPE and the extreme scenario, with ionization rate profiles applied just for the event day, the inclusion of chlorine ion chemistry added ozone losses of 10 % and 20 % respectively. © Author(s) 2023This research has been supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG) under project grant no. 1088/7-1. The AISstorm model is funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG project grant no. WI4417/2-1). The article processing charges for this open-access publication were covered by the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

Global distribution of mean age of stratospheric air from MIPAS SF6 measurements

Global distributions of profiles of sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) have been retrieved from limb emission spectra recorded by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat covering the period September 2002 to March 2004. Individual SF6 profiles have a precision of 0.5 pptv below 25 km altitude and a vertical resolution of 4–6 km up to 35 km altitude. These data have been validated versus in situ observations obtained during balloon flights of a cryogenic whole-air sampler. For the tropical troposphere a trend of 0.230±0.008 pptv/yr has been derived from the MIPAS data, which is in excellent agreement with the trend from ground-based flask and in situ measurements from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Division. For the data set currently available, based on at least three days of data per month, monthly 5° latitude mean values have a 1 o standard error of 1%. From the global SF6 distributions, global daily and monthly distributions of the apparent mean age of air are inferred by application of the tropical tropospheric trend derived from MIPAS data. The inferred mean ages are provided for the full globe up to 90° N/S, and have a 1 o standard error of 0.25 yr. They range between 0 (near the tropical tropopause) and 7 years (except for situations of mesospheric intrusions) and agree well with earlier observations. The seasonal variation of the mean age of stratospheric air indicates episodes of severe intrusion of mesospheric air during each Northern and Southern polar winter observed, long-lasting remnants of old, subsided polar winter air over the spring and summer poles, and a rather short period of mixing with midlatitude air and/or upward transport during fall in October/November (NH) and April/May (SH), respectively, with small latitudinal gradients, immediately before the new polar vortex starts to form. The mean age distributions further confirm that SF6 is destroyed in the mesosphere to a considerable degree. Model calculations with the Karlsruhe simulation model of the middle atmosphere (KASIMA) chemical transport model agree well with observed global distributions of the mean age only if the SF6 sink reactions in the mesosphere are included in the model

The impact of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) sinks on age of air climatologies and trends

Mean age of air (AoA) is a common diagnostic for the strength of the stratospheric overturning circulation in both climate models and observations. AoA climatologies and AoA trends over the recent decades of model simulations and proxies derived from observations of long-lived tracers do not agree. Satellite observations show much older air than climate models, and while most models compute a clear decrease in AoA over the last decades, a 30-year time series from measurements shows a statistically nonsignificant positive trend in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical middle stratosphere. Measurement-based AoA derivations are often founded on observations of the trace gas sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), a fairly long-lived gas with a near-linear increase in emissions during recent decades. However, SF6 has chemical sinks in the mesosphere that are not considered in most model studies. In this study, we explicitly compute the chemical SF6 sinks based on chemical processes in the global chemistry climate model EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry). We show that good agreement between stratospheric AoA in EMAC and MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) is reached through the inclusion of chemical SF6 sinks, as these sinks lead to a strong increase in the stratospheric AoA and, therefore, to a better agreement with MIPAS satellite observations. Remaining larger differences at high latitudes are addressed, and possible reasons for these differences are discussed. Subsequently, we demonstrate that the AoA trends are also strongly influenced by the chemical SF6 sinks. Under consideration of the SF6 sinks, the AoA trends over the recent decades reverse sign from negative to positive. We conduct sensitivity simulations which reveal that this sign reversal does not result from trends in the stratospheric circulation strength nor from changes in the strength of the SF6 sinks. We illustrate that even a constant SF6 destruction rate causes a positive trend in the derived AoA, as the amount of depleted SF6 scales with increasing SF6 abundance itself. In our simulations, this effect overcompensates for the impact of the accelerating stratospheric circulation which naturally decreases AoA. Although various sources of uncertainties cannot be quantified in detail in this study, our results suggest that the inclusion of SF6 depletion in models has the potential to reconcile the AoA trends of models and observations. We conclude the study with a first approach towards a correction to account for SF6 loss and deduce that a linear correction might be applicable to values of AoA of up to 4 years

HEPPA-II model-measurement intercomparison project : EPP indirect effects during the dynamically perturbed NH winter 2008-2009

We compare simulations from three high-top (with upper lid above 120 km) and five medium-top (with upper lid around 80 km) atmospheric models with observations of odd nitrogen (NOx D NO+NO2), temperature, and carbon monoxide from seven satellite instruments (ACE-FTS on SciSat, GOMOS, MIPAS, and SCIAMACHY on Envisat, MLS on Aura, SABER on TIMED, and SMR on Odin) during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar winter 2008/2009. The models included in the comparison are the 3-D chemistry transport model 3dCTM, the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, FinROSE, the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMO-NIA), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), the modelling tools for SOlar Climate Ozone Links studies (SOCOL and CAO-SOCOL), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). The comparison focuses on the energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect, that is, the polar winter descent of NOx largely produced by EPP in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. A particular emphasis is given to the impact of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009 and the subsequent elevated stratopause (ES) event associated with enhanced descent of mesospheric air. The chemistry climate model simulations have been nudged toward reanalysis data in the troposphere and stratosphere while being unconstrained above. An odd nitrogen upper boundary condition obtained from MIPAS observations has further been applied to medium-top models. Most models provide a good representation of the mesospheric tracer descent in general, and the EPP indirect effect in particular, during the unperturbed (pre-SSW) period of the NH winter 2008/2009. The observed NOx descent into the lower mesosphere and stratosphere is generally reproduced within 20 %. Larger discrepancies of a few model simulations could be traced back either to the impact of the models' gravity wave drag scheme on the polar wintertime meridional circulation or to a combination of prescribed NOx mixing ratio at the uppermost model layer and low vertical resolution. In March-April, after the ES event, however, modelled mesospheric and stratospheric NOx distributions deviate significantly from the observations. The too-fast and early downward propagation of the NO x tongue, encountered in most simulations, coincides with a temperature high bias in the lower mesosphere (0.2-0.05 hPa), likely caused by an overestimation of descent velocities. In contrast, upper-mesospheric temperatures (at 0.05-0.001 hPa) are generally underestimated by the high-top models after the onset of the ES event, being indicative for too-slow descent and hence too-low NOx fluxes. As a consequence, the magnitude of the simulated NOx tongue is generally underestimated by these models. Descending NOx amounts simulated with mediumtop models are on average closer to the observations but show a large spread of up to several hundred percent. This is primarily attributed to the different vertical model domains in which the NOx upper boundary condition is applied. In general, the intercomparison demonstrates the ability of state-of- the-art atmospheric models to reproduce the EPP indirect effect in dynamically and geomagnetically quiescent NH winter conditions. The encountered differences between observed and simulated NOx, CO, and temperature distributions during the perturbed phase of the 2009 NH winter, however, emphasize the need for model improvements in the dynamical representation of elevated stratopause events in order to allow for a better description of the EPP indirect effect under these particular conditions.Peer reviewe