467 research outputs found

    An assessment of practitioners approaches to forecasting in the presence of changepoints

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    A common challenge in time series is to forecast data that suffer from structural breaks or changepoints which complicate modeling. If we naively forecast using one model for the whole data, the model will be incorrect, and thus, our forecast error will be large. There are two common practices to account for these changepoints when the goal is forecasting: (1) preprocess the data to identify the changepoints, incorporating them as dummy variables in modeling the whole data, and (2) include the changepoint estimation into the model and forecast using the model fit to the last segment. This article examines these two practices, using the computationally exact Pruned Exact Linear Time (PELT) algorithm for changepoint detection, comparing and contrasting them in the context of an important Software Engineering application

    Decline in health-related quality of life and foot and ankle patient reported outcomes measures in patients with haemophilia and ankle haemarthropathy

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    Background: Haemophilia is an X-linked recessive genetic disorder characterised by bleeding within soft tissue and joints. The ankle is disproportionally affected by haemarthropathy when compared to the elbows and knees; reported as the most affected joints in patients with haemophilia. Despite advances in treatment, patients still report ongoing pain and disability, however, the impact has not been evaluated, nor has the effect on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) or foot and ankle patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs). The primary aim of this study was to establish the impact of ankle haemarthropathy in patients with severe and moderate haemophilia A and B. Secondly to identify the clinical outcomes associated with a decline in HRQoL and foot and ankle PROMs. Methods: A cross-sectional multi-centre questionnaire study was conducted across 18 haemophilia centres in England, Scotland and Wales with a recruitment target of 245 participants. The HAEMO-QoL-A and Manchester-Oxford Foot Questionnaire (MOXFQ) (foot and ankle) with total and domain scores measured impact on HRQOL and foot and ankle outcomes. Demographics, clinical characteristics, ankle haemophilia joint health scores, multi-joint haemarthropathy and Numerical Pain Rating Scales (NPRS) of “ankle pain over the past six months” were collected as a measure of chronic ankle pain. Results: A total of 243 of 250 participants provided complete data. HAEMO-QoL-A and MOXFQ (foot and ankle) total and index scores indicated worse HRQoL with total scores ranging from a mean of 35.3 to 35.8 (100 best-health) and 50.5 to 45.8 (0 best-health) respectively. NPRS (mean (SD)) ranged from 5.0 (2.6) to 5.5 (2.5), with median (IQR) ankle haemophilia joint health score of 4.5 (1 to 12.5) to 6.0 (3.0 to 10.0) indicating moderate to severe levels of ankle haemarthropathy. Ankle NPRS over six months and inhibitor status were associated with decline in outcome. Conclusions: HRQoL and foot and ankle PROMs were poor in participants with moderate to severe levels of ankle haemarthropathy. Pain was a major driver for decline in HRQoL and foot and ankle PROMs and use of NPRS has the potential to predict worsening HRQoL and PROMs at the ankle and other affected joints

    Mathematical modelling of cell layer growth in a hollow fibre bioreactor.

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    Generating autologous tissue grafts of a clinically useful volume requires efficient and controlled expansion of cell populations harvested from patients. Hollow fibre bioreactors show promise as cell expansion devices, owing to their potential for scale-up. However, further research is required to establish how to specify appropriate hollow fibre bioreactor operating conditions for expanding different cell types. In this study we develop a simple model for the growth of a cell layer seeded on the outer surface of a single fibre in a perfused hollow fibre bioreactor. Nutrient-rich culture medium is pumped through the fibre lumen and leaves the bioreactor via the lumen outlet or passes through the porous fibre walls and cell layer, and out via ports on the outer wall of the extra-capillary space. Stokes and Darcy equations for fluid flow in the fibre lumen, fibre wall, cell layer and extra-capillary space are coupled to reaction-advection-diffusion equations for oxygen and lactate transport through the bioreactor, and to a simple growth law for the evolution of the free boundary of the cell layer. Cells at the free boundary are assumed to proliferate at a rate that increases with the local oxygen concentration, and to die and detach from the layer if the local fluid shear stress or lactate concentration exceed critical thresholds. We use the model to predict operating conditions that maximise the cell layer growth for different cell types. In particular, we predict the optimal flow rate of culture medium into the fibre lumen and fluid pressure imposed at the lumen outlet for cell types with different oxygen demands and fluid shear stress tolerances, and compare the growth of the cell layer when the exit ports on the outside of the bioreactor are open with that when they are closed. Model simulations reveal that increasing the inlet flow rate and outlet fluid pressure increases oxygen delivery to the cell layer and, therefore, the growth rate of cells that are tolerant to high shear stresses, but may be detrimental for shear-sensitive cells. The cell layer growth rate is predicted to increase, and be less sensitive to the lactate tolerance of the cells, when the exit ports are opened, as the radial flow through the bioreactor is enhanced and the lactate produced by the cells cleared more rapidly from the cell layer

    The impact of ankle haemarthropathy in patients with moderate haemophilia

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    Introduction: Moderate haemophilia has traditionally been associated with less complications than severe haemophilia. Changes in treatment recommendations have highlighted the burden of moderate haemophilia with a subset of patients with a severe bleeding phenotype. The ankle joint is disproportionally affected by ankle haemarthropathy however the impact has not been evaluated in moderate haemophilia, nor the effect on health related quality of life (HRQoL) or foot and ankle outcomes. Aims: To establish the impact of ankle haemarthropathy in patients with moderate haemophilia. Methods: A multicentre questionnaire study recruited patients from 11 haemophilia centres in England, Scotland and Wales. The HAEMO‐QoL‐A and Manchester‐Oxford foot and ankle questionnaire (MOXFQ) with total and domain scores measured impact. Measures of pain and ankle haemophilia joint health (HJHS) scores were also collected. Results: Twenty‐nine participants were recruited. HAEMO‐QoL A mean (SD) total scores of 10.8 (5.2) of 100 (best health) and foot and ankle specific MOXFQ total scores of 45.5 (24.7) above zero (best outcome) indicate poor HRQoL and foot and ankle outcomes. Average ankle pain over past 6 months of (0–10) 5.5 (SD2.5) was reported and median (IQR) ankle HJHS of 3.0 (1;12.5) to 4.5 (0;9.5) for the left and right ankles. Conclusion: HRQoL and foot and ankle specific outcomes are poor in patients with moderate haemophilia and ankle haemarthropathy, driven by chronic levels of ankle joint pain. Despite moderate haemophilia being considered less affected by haemarthrosis and haemarthropathy, patients with a bleeding or haemarthropathy phenotype are clinically similar to patients with severe haemophilia A

    HCMV pUL135 remodels the actin cytoskeleton to impair immune recognition of infected cells

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    Immune evasion genes help human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) establish lifelong persistence. Without immune pressure, laboratory-adapted HCMV strains have undergone genetic alterations. Among these, the deletion of the UL/b’ domain is associated with loss of virulence. In a screen of UL/b’, we identified pUL135 as a protein responsible for the characteristic cytopathic effect of clinical HCMV strains that also protected from natural killer (NK) and T cell attack. pUL135 interacted directly with abl interactor 1 (ABI1) and ABI2 to recruit the WAVE2 regulatory complex to the plasma membrane, remodel the actin cytoskeleton and dramatically reduce the efficiency of immune synapse (IS) formation. An intimate association between F-actin filaments in target cells and the IS was dispelled by pUL135 expression. Thus, F-actin in target cells plays a critical role in synaptogenesis, and this can be exploited by pathogens to protect against cytotoxic immune effector cells. An independent interaction between pUL135 and talin disrupted cell contacts with the extracellular matrix

    Homogenization via formal multiscale asymptotics and volume averaging: How do the two techniques compare?

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    A wide variety of techniques have been developed to homogenize transport equations in multiscale and multiphase systems. This has yielded a rich and diverse field, but has also resulted in the emergence of isolated scientific communities and disconnected bodies of literature. Here, our goal is to bridge the gap between formal multiscale asymptotics and the volume averaging theory. We illustrate the methodologies via a simple example application describing a parabolic transport problem and, in so doing, compare their respective advantages/disadvantages from a practical point of view. This paper is also intended as a pedagogical guide and may be viewed as a tutorial for graduate students as we provide historical context, detail subtle points with great care, and reference many fundamental works

    Carbon concentrations in natural and restoration pools in blanket peatlands

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    Open-water perennial pools are common natural features of peatlands globally, and peatland restoration often results in new pool creation, yet the concentrations of different forms of aquatic carbon (C) in natural and artificial restoration pools are not well studied. We compared carbon concentrations in both natural pools and restoration pools (4–15 years old) on three blanket peatlands in northern Scotland. At all sites, restoration pools were more acidic and had mean dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in restoration pools of 23, 22, and 31 mg L−1 compared with natural pool means of 11, 11 and 15 mg L−1 respectively across the three sites. Restoration pools had a greater fulvic acid prevalence than the natural pools and their DOC was more aromatic. Restoration pools were supersaturated with dissolved CO2 at around 10 times atmospheric levels, whereas for natural pools, CO2 concentrations were just above atmospheric levels. Dissolved CH4 concentrations were not different between pool types, but were ~200 times higher than atmospheric levels. Regular sampling at one of the peatland sites over 2.5 years showed that particulate organic carbon (POC) concentrations were generally below 7 mg L−1 except during the warm, dry summer of 2013. At this regularly-sampled site, natural pools were found to process DOC so that mean pool outflow concentrations in overland flow were significantly lower than mean inflow DOC concentrations. Such an effect was not found for the restoration pools. Soil solution and pool water chemistry, and relationships between DOC and CO2 concentrations suggest that different processes are controlling the transformation of C, and therefore the form and amount of C, in natural pools compared to restoration pools

    Integrative molecular characterization of pediatric spinal ependymoma: the UK Children’s Cancer and Leukaemia Group study

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    BackgroundPediatric spinal ependymomas (SP-EPNs) are rare primary central nervous system tumors with heterogeneous clinical course. Considering that ependymomas in children are biologically distinct from their adult counterparts, this study aimed to define the molecular landscape of SP-EPNs in children.MethodsIn this retrospective study, we have collected tumor samples from 27 SP-EPN patients younger than 18 years and carried out the histological review, DNA methylation, and gene expression profiling.ResultsUnsupervised analyses with methylation profiles revealed 2 subgroups where all grade I tumors (n = 11) were in Group 1, but the grade II/III tumors split into 2 groups (n = 7 in Group 1 and n = 9 in Group 2). The Heidelberg classifier assigned Group 1 tumors as spinal myxopapillary ependymomas (SP-MPEs), 5 Group 2 tumors as SP-EPNs, and failed to classify 4 Group 2 tumors. Copy numbers derived from DNA methylation arrays revealed subgroup-specific genetic alterations and showed that SP-EPN tumors lack MYCN amplification. Gene expression profiling revealed distinct transcriptomic signatures, including overexpression of genes involved in oxidative phosphorylation in SP-MPEs that were validated by Western blot analysis. We discovered widespread decreases in DNA methylation at enhancer regions that are associated with the expression of oncogenic signaling pathways in SP-MPEs. Furthermore, transcription factor motifs for master regulators, including HNF1B, PAX3, and ZIC3, were significantly overrepresented in probes specific to distal regulatory regions in SP MPEs.Conclusion Our findings show substantial heterogeneity in pediatric SP-EPN and uncover novel enhancers and transcriptional pathways specific to the SP-MPE subgroup, providing a foundation for future therapeutic strategies
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