Short term energy forecasting techniques for virtual power plants

YesThe advent of smart meter technology has enabled periodic monitoring of consumer energy consumption. Hence, short term energy forecasting is gaining more importance than conventional load forecasting. An Accurate forecasting of energy consumption is indispensable for the proper functioning of a virtual power plant (VPP). This paper focuses on short term energy forecasting in a VPP. The factors that influence energy forecasting in a VPP are identified and an artificial neural network based energy forecasting model is built. The model is tested on Sydney/ New South Wales (NSW) electricity grid. It considers the historical weather data and holidays in Sydney/ NSW and forecasts the energy consumption pattern with sufficient accuracy

Immunoglobulin, glucocorticoid, or combination therapy for multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children: a propensity-weighted cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), a hyperinflammatory condition associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, has emerged as a serious illness in children worldwide. Immunoglobulin or glucocorticoids, or both, are currently recommended treatments. METHODS: The Best Available Treatment Study evaluated immunomodulatory treatments for MIS-C in an international observational cohort. Analysis of the first 614 patients was previously reported. In this propensity-weighted cohort study, clinical and outcome data from children with suspected or proven MIS-C were collected onto a web-based Research Electronic Data Capture database. After excluding neonates and incomplete or duplicate records, inverse probability weighting was used to compare primary treatments with intravenous immunoglobulin, intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids, or glucocorticoids alone, using intravenous immunoglobulin as the reference treatment. Primary outcomes were a composite of inotropic or ventilator support from the second day after treatment initiation, or death, and time to improvement on an ordinal clinical severity scale. Secondary outcomes included treatment escalation, clinical deterioration, fever, and coronary artery aneurysm occurrence and resolution. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN69546370. FINDINGS: We enrolled 2101 children (aged 0 months to 19 years) with clinically diagnosed MIS-C from 39 countries between June 14, 2020, and April 25, 2022, and, following exclusions, 2009 patients were included for analysis (median age 8·0 years [IQR 4·2-11·4], 1191 [59·3%] male and 818 [40·7%] female, and 825 [41·1%] White). 680 (33·8%) patients received primary treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin, 698 (34·7%) with intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids, 487 (24·2%) with glucocorticoids alone; 59 (2·9%) patients received other combinations, including biologicals, and 85 (4·2%) patients received no immunomodulators. There were no significant differences between treatments for primary outcomes for the 1586 patients with complete baseline and outcome data that were considered for primary analysis. Adjusted odds ratios for ventilation, inotropic support, or death were 1·09 (95% CI 0·75-1·58; corrected p value=1·00) for intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids and 0·93 (0·58-1·47; corrected p value=1·00) for glucocorticoids alone, versus intravenous immunoglobulin alone. Adjusted average hazard ratios for time to improvement were 1·04 (95% CI 0·91-1·20; corrected p value=1·00) for intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids, and 0·84 (0·70-1·00; corrected p value=0·22) for glucocorticoids alone, versus intravenous immunoglobulin alone. Treatment escalation was less frequent for intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids (OR 0·15 [95% CI 0·11-0·20]; p<0·0001) and glucocorticoids alone (0·68 [0·50-0·93]; p=0·014) versus intravenous immunoglobulin alone. Persistent fever (from day 2 onward) was less common with intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids compared with either intravenous immunoglobulin alone (OR 0·50 [95% CI 0·38-0·67]; p<0·0001) or glucocorticoids alone (0·63 [0·45-0·88]; p=0·0058). Coronary artery aneurysm occurrence and resolution did not differ significantly between treatment groups. INTERPRETATION: Recovery rates, including occurrence and resolution of coronary artery aneurysms, were similar for primary treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin when compared to glucocorticoids or intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids. Initial treatment with glucocorticoids appears to be a safe alternative to immunoglobulin or combined therapy, and might be advantageous in view of the cost and limited availability of intravenous immunoglobulin in many countries. FUNDING: Imperial College London, the European Union's Horizon 2020, Wellcome Trust, the Medical Research Foundation, UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, and National Institutes of Health

Porous materials for thermal management under extreme conditions

A brief analysis is presented of how heat transfer takes place in porous materials of various types. The emphasis is on materials able to withstand extremes of temperature, gas pressure, irradiation, etc., i.e. metals and ceramics, rather than polymers. A primary aim is commonly to maximize either the thermal resistance (i.e. provide insulation) or the rate of thermal equilibration between the material and a fluid passing through it (i.e. to facilitate heat exchange). The main structural characteristics concern porosity (void content), anisotropy, pore connectivity and scale. The effect of scale is complex, since the permeability decreases as the structure is refined, but the interfacial area for fluid–solid heat exchange is, thereby, raised. The durability of the pore structure may also be an issue, with a possible disadvantage of finer scale structures being poor microstructural stability under service conditions. Finally, good mechanical properties may be required, since the development of thermal gradients, high fluid fluxes, etc. can generate substantial levels of stress. There are, thus, some complex interplays between service conditions, pore architecture/scale, fluid permeation characteristics, convective heat flow, thermal conduction and radiative heat transfer. Such interplays are illustrated with reference to three examples: (i) a thermal barrier coating in a gas turbine engine; (ii) a Space Shuttle tile; and (iii) a Stirling engine heat exchanger. Highly porous, permeable materials are often made by bonding fibres together into a network structure and much of the analysis presented here is oriented towards such materials