Forecasting future prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Syria

Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasingly becoming a major public health problem worldwide. Estimating the future burden of diabetes is instrumental to guide the public health response to the epidemic. This study aims to project the prevalence of T2DM among adults in Syria over the period 2003?2022 by applying a modelling approach to the country?s own data. Methods Future prevalence of T2DM in Syria was estimated among adults aged 25æyears and older for the period 2003?2022 using the IMPACT Diabetes Model (a discrete-state Markov model). Results According to our model, the prevalence of T2DM in Syria is projected to double in the period between 2003 and 2022 (from 10% to 21%). The projected increase in T2DM prevalence is higher in men (148%) than in women (93%). The increase in prevalence of T2DM is expected to be most marked in people younger than 55æyears especially the 25?34æyears age group. Conclusions The future projections of T2DM in Syria put it amongst countries with the highest levels of T2DM worldwide. It is estimated that by 2022 approximately a fifth of the Syrian population aged 25æyears and older will have T2DM

Waterpipe smoking in students: Prevalence, risk factors, symptoms of addiction, and smoke intake. Evidence from one British university

Background: Anecdotal reports suggest waterpipe smoking is becoming common in students in western countries. The aim was to examine prevalence, risk factors, symptoms of addiction, and smoke intake. Methods: This was a cross-sectional survey of students with subsidiary survey of regular waterpipe user and survey of exhaled carbon monoxide (CO) before and after waterpipe smoking in customers of a waterpipe café. 937 students of Birmingham University completed the initial survey with a follow up of 21 regular waterpipe smokers. 63 customers of a waterpipe café near the University completed the study of CO intake. Results: 355 (37.9%, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 34.8 to 41.1%) students had tried waterpipes,the prevalence of trying rising with duration at University. 75 (8.0%, 95%CI 6.4 to 10.0%) were regular smokers, similar to the prevalence of cigarette smoking (9.4%). Although cigarette smoking was the major risk factor for being a regular waterpipe smoker, odds ratio (95%CI) 2.77 (1.52 to 5.06), 65% of waterpipe smokers did not smoke cigarettes. Seven of 21 (33.3%) regular waterpipe smokers experienced cravings. Nearly all regular waterpipe users thought it less harmful than smoking cigarettes. The mean (standard deviation) rise in CO was 37.4 (25.8)ppm, nearly twice as high as a typical cigarette smoker seeking cessation treatment. Conclusion: Waterpipe smoking is a common part of student culture in one British university, as in the Middle East and in the United States. It poses a potential threat to public health, with evidence of dependence and high smoke intake

Validity of registration of ICD codes and prescriptions in a research database in Swedish primary care: a cross-sectional study in Skaraborg primary care database

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In recent years, several primary care databases recording information from computerized medical records have been established and used for quality assessment of medical care and research. However, to be useful for research purposes, the data generated routinely from every day practice require registration of high quality. In this study we aimed to investigate (i) the frequency and validity of ICD code and drug prescription registration in the new Skaraborg primary care database (SPCD) and (ii) to investigate the sources of variation in this registration.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>SPCD contains anonymous electronic medical records (ProfDoc III) automatically retrieved from all 24 public health care centres (HCC) in Skaraborg, Sweden. The frequencies of ICD code registration for the selected diagnoses diabetes mellitus, hypertension and chronic cardiovascular disease and the relevant drug prescriptions in the time period between May 2002 and October 2003 were analysed. The validity of data registration in the SPCD was assessed in a random sample of 50 medical records from each HCC (n = 1200 records) using the medical record text as gold standard. The variance of ICD code registration was studied with multi-level logistic regression analysis and expressed as median odds ratio (MOR).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For diabetes mellitus and hypertension ICD codes were registered in 80-90% of cases, while for congestive heart failure and ischemic heart disease ICD codes were registered more seldom (60-70%). Drug prescription registration was overall high (88%). A correlation between the frequency of ICD coded visits and the sensitivity of the ICD code registration was found for hypertension and congestive heart failure but not for diabetes or ischemic heart disease.</p> <p>The frequency of ICD code registration varied from 42 to 90% between HCCs, and the greatest variation was found at the physician level (MOR_PHYSICIAN= 4.2 and MOR_HCC= 2.3).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Since the frequency of ICD code registration varies between different diagnoses, each diagnosis must be separately validated. Improved frequency and quality of ICD code registration might be achieved by interventions directed towards the physicians where the greatest amount of variation was found.</p

A cost effectiveness analysis of salt reduction policies to reduce coronary heart disease in four Eastern Mediterranean countries.

BACKGROUND: Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is rising in middle income countries. Population based strategies to reduce specific CHD risk factors have an important role to play in reducing overall CHD mortality. Reducing dietary salt consumption is a potentially cost-effective way to reduce CHD events. This paper presents an economic evaluation of population based salt reduction policies in Tunisia, Syria, Palestine and Turkey. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Three policies to reduce dietary salt intake were evaluated: a health promotion campaign, labelling of food packaging and mandatory reformulation of salt content in processed food. These were evaluated separately and in combination. Estimates of the effectiveness of salt reduction on blood pressure were based on a literature review. The reduction in mortality was estimated using the IMPACT CHD model specific to that country. Cumulative population health effects were quantified as life years gained (LYG) over a 10 year time frame. The costs of each policy were estimated using evidence from comparable policies and expert opinion including public sector costs and costs to the food industry. Health care costs associated with CHDs were estimated using standardized unit costs. The total cost of implementing each policy was compared against the current baseline (no policy). All costs were calculated using 2010 PPP exchange rates. In all four countries most policies were cost saving compared with the baseline. The combination of all three policies (reducing salt consumption by 30%) resulted in estimated cost savings of $235,000,000 and 6455 LYG in Tunisia;$39,000,000 and 31674 LYG in Syria; $6,000,000 and 2682 LYG in Palestine and$1,3000,000,000 and 378439 LYG in Turkey. CONCLUSION: Decreasing dietary salt intake will reduce coronary heart disease deaths in the four countries. A comprehensive strategy of health education and food industry actions to label and reduce salt content would save both money and lives

Comparison of patterns of use, beliefs, and attitudes related to waterpipe between beginning and established smokers

BACKGROUND: To compare patterns of use, beliefs, and attitudes related to waterpipe smoking between university students (beginning smokers) and café customers (established smokers) in Aleppo Syria, in order to explore the evolution of this smoking method. METHODS: Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted among representative samples of university students (total 587, 48.4% men, mean age 22 years), and waterpipe users among cafe' customers (total 268, 60% men, mean age 30 years) in Aleppo, Syria. We used interviewer-administered questionnaire inquiring about pattern of waterpipe smoking (initiation, frequency), situational characteristics of use (partner, place, sharing), beliefs related to waterpipe smoking (harmful/addictive properties of waterpipe), attitudes related to waterpipe smoking (confidence in quitting, will to quit, motivation for quitting, past year quit attempt), and cigarette smoking. RESULTS: Daily and regular patterns of smoking become more prevalent with increased duration of smoking, but intermittent smoking remains the predominant pattern of waterpipe use. Women seem to be drawn later to the habit, which seem to escape the usual taboo against women's cigarette smoking. Patterns and context of waterpipe use tend to change with progress of the practice affecting frequency, setting, and sharing of waterpipe. Unlike beginners, established waterpipe smokers seem more smoking-method oriented, more hooked on the habit, less willing to quit, and less likely to foresee challenges to quitting. CONCLUSION: Use patterns and attitudes related to waterpipe smoking evolve to accommodate the change in dependence and life circumstances of the smoker. Most of use features, beliefs, attitudes, as well as time-course seem unique to this smoking method requiring novel approach to intervention

Injuries in Aleppo, Syria; first population-based estimates and characterization of predominant types

BACKGROUND: Despite the growing burden of injuries worldwide, Syria and many other Arab countries still lack population-based estimates of different types of injuries. This study aims toprovide first population-based estimates of major injuries in Syria and characterize groups at increased risk. METHODS: An interviewer-administered population-based survey of adults 18–65 years residing in Aleppo, Syria was conducted in 2004. The study sample involved 2038 household representatives in Aleppo (45.2% men, mean age 35.3 ± 12.1, response rate 86%). We inquired about participants self-reported injuries in the past year that required medical attention as well as injuries among their household members. When reported, injuries were further assessed according to type, place, and outcome. RESULTS: Overall, there was 153 self-reported injuries in the past year (77.3 per 1000 adult respondents, 93.1 per 1000 in men and 64.4 per 1000 in women, p = 0.02). Other than gender, injuries differed by age (the older age group being least affected), and place of occurrence, as men were more likely to sustain traffic injuries and be injured outside the home. Injuries were reported among 236 household members (21.0 per 1000), and were slightly more frequent in children than adults (22.0 per 1000 for children, and 19.7 per 1000 for adults, p = 0.2). Traffic injuries, falls, and poisoning (food) were by far the most common types of injury experienced by participants as well as their household members. Falls and traffic injuries seem to have caused most morbidity for the injured, while burns, although not frequently reported, were associated with an unfavorable outcome in the majority of cases. CONCLUSION: This information provides baseline information about the burden of different injuries in Syria, and the sociodemographic factors related to them

CNTN6 mutations are risk factors for abnormal auditory sensory perception in autism spectrum disorders

Contactin genes CNTN5 and CNTN6 code for neuronal cell adhesion molecules that promote neurite outgrowth in sensory-motor neuronal pathways. Mutations of CNTN5 and CNTN6 have previously been reported in individuals with autism spectrum disorders (ASDs), but very little is known on their prevalence and clinical impact. In this study, we identified CNTN5 and CNTN6 deleterious variants in individuals with ASD. Among the carriers, a girl with ASD and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder was carrying five copies of CNTN5. For CNTN6, both deletions (6/1534 ASD vs 1/8936 controls; P=0.00006) and private coding sequence variants (18/501 ASD vs 535/33480 controls; P=0.0005) were enriched in individuals with ASD. Among the rare CNTN6 variants, two deletions were transmitted by fathers diagnosed with ASD, one stop mutation CNTN6W923X was transmitted by a mother to her two sons with ASD and one variant CNTN6P770L was found de novo in a boy with ASD. Clinical investigations of the patients carrying CNTN5 or CNTN6 variants showed that they were hypersensitive to sounds (a condition called hyperacusis) and displayed changes in wave latency within the auditory pathway. These results reinforce the hypothesis of abnormal neuronal connectivity in the pathophysiology of ASD and shed new light on the genes that increase risk for abnormal sensory perception in ASD

Analysis of X chromosome inactivation in autism spectrum disorders.

International audienceAutism spectrum disorders (ASD) are complex genetic disorders more frequently observed in males. Skewed X chromosome inactivation (XCI) is observed in heterozygous females carrying gene mutations involved in several X-linked syndromes. In this study, we aimed to estimate the role of X-linked genes in ASD susceptibility by ascertaining the XCI pattern in a sample of 543 informative mothers of children with ASD and in a sample of 163 affected girls. The XCI pattern was also determined in two control groups (144 adult females and 40 young females) with a similar age distribution to the mothers sample and affected girls sample, respectively. We observed no significant excess of skewed XCI in families with ASD. Interestingly, two mothers and one girl carrying known mutations in X-linked genes (NLGN3, ATRX, MECP2) showed highly skewed XCI, suggesting that ascertainment of XCI could reveal families with X-linked mutations. Linkage analysis was carried out in the subgroup of multiplex families with skewed XCI (> or = 80:20) and a modest increased allele sharing was obtained in the Xq27-Xq28 region, with a peak Z-score of 1.75 close to rs719489. In summary, our results suggest that there is no major X-linked gene subject to XCI and expressed in blood cells conferring susceptibility to ASD. However, the possibility that rare mutations in X-linked genes could contribute to ASD cannot be excluded. We propose that the XCI profile could be a useful criteria to prioritize families for mutation screening of X-linked candidate genes

The rise in narghile (shisha, hookah) waterpipe tobacco smoking: A qualitative study of perceptions of smokers and non smokers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The prevalence of waterpipe tobacco smoking (WTS) in the Middle East region and worldwide is increasing. There is evidence to indicate both short term and long term health effects of WTS, resulting in the issuance of an advisory note by the World Health Organization.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This research aimed at gaining an in-depth understanding of the factors contributing to the rise in WTS in Lebanon. Qualitative focus groups (25) and in-depth interviews (9) were conducted with adults in Lebanon in 2007. Participants were recruited to represent diversity in smoking status, gender, age groups and urban/rural residence. The interviews and focus groups were thematically analyzed, and recurrent themes noted and summarized.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The main themes identified were availability, affordability, innovation, influence of media, lack of a policy framework, and the sensory characteristics evoked from WTS. Men and women, smokers and non-smokers, and younger and older participants differed in their emphases on the above themes. These themes, though specific to waterpipe, are similar to themes manipulated by the cigarette industry, and eventually controlled through tobacco control policies.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Understanding reasons behind the rise in waterpipe tobacco use is important if appropriate prevention, cessation, and policy interventions are to be formulated. Strict adherence to the FCTC is warranted, with careful and vigilant attention that all tobacco products are covered by laws in both high as well as middle to lower income countries.</p