Common cause analysis : a review and extension of existing methods

The quantitative common cause analysis code, MOBB, is extended to include uncertainties arising from modelling uncertainties and data uncertainties. Two methods, Monte Carlo simulation and the Method-of-Moments are used to propagate uncertainties through the analysis. The two different capabilities of the code are then compared. When component failure rates are assumed lognormallv distributed, bounded lognormal (Sb) distributions are used to evaluate higher moment terms, as required by the Method-of-Moments, in order to minimize the effect of the tail of the lognormal. A code using the discrete probability distribution (DPD) method is developed for analyzing system unavailability due to common initiating events (internal and external). Sample problems demonstrating each approach are also presented

Topledelse, organisationskulturelle værdier og kønsforskelle i internationale revisionsfirmaer - Dansk empiri

Artiklen behandler problemet: ”Hvorfor er der så få kvinder i topledelsen i revisorbranchen?” - en problemstilling, der er væsentlig, fordi relativt flere kvinder end mænd opgiver karrieren i løbet af de første år i revisorbranchen – med tab af talent og uddannelsesomkostninger til følge. Hidtidige undersøgelser af spørgsmålet giver talmæssigt belæg herfor. Artiklen søger forklaringer og løsningsmuligheder i organisationskulturelle værdier. Australsk og amerikansk forskning har identificeret 26 items, som udtrykker revisorernes organisationskulturelle værdier, og som antagelig påvirker deres handlinger og dermed deres karrierevalg. Disse værdier afprøves på danske revisorer og analyseres. En faktoranalyse resulterer i et sammendrag på 5 værdidimensioner, som efterfølgende testes for køns- og ledelsesniveauforskelle. Resultatet er, at især 3 af værdidimensionerne: Præstationsorientering, socialorientering og eksperimentorientering vægtes forskelligt afhængigt af køn og ledelsesniveau. Analyseresultaterne kan derfor bidrage til forklaringen af, hvorfor relativt flere kvinder forlader revisorbranchen i starten af revisorkarrieren. Endelig gives i perspektiveringen nogle ideer til, hvordan resultaterne kan bruges i problemløsningen

Novel cell-based model of the generation and maintenance of the shape and structure of the multi-layered shoot apical meristem of Arabidopsis thaliana

One of the central problems in animal and plant developmental biology is deciphering how chemical and mechanical signals interact within a tissue to produce organs of defined size, shape and function. Cell walls in plants impose a unique constraint on cell expansion since cells are under turgor pressure and do not move relative to one another. Cell wall extensibility and constantly changing distribution of stress on the wall are mechanical properties that vary between individual cells and contribute to rates of expansion and orientation of cell division. How exactly cell wall mechanical properties influence cell behavior is still largely unknown. To address this problem, a novel, subcellular element computational model of growth of stem cells within the multilayered shoot apical meristem (SAM) of Arabidopsis thaliana is developed and calibrated using experimental data. Novel features of the model include separate, detailed descriptions of cell wall extensibility and mechanical stiffness, deformation of the middle lamella and increase in cytoplasmic pressure generating internal turgor pressure. The model is used to test novel hypothesized mechanisms of formation of the shape and structure of the growing, multilayered SAM based on WUS concentration of individual cells controlling cell growth rates and layer dependent anisotropic mechanical properties of subcellular components of individual cells determining anisotropic cell expansion directions. Model simulations also provide a detailed prediction of distribution of stresses in the growing tissue which can be tested in future experiments

Determinants of Non-Vaccination against Pandemic 2009 H1N1 Influenza in Pregnant Women: A Prospective Cohort Study

International audienceBACKGROUND: In October 2009, the French government organized a national-wide, free of charge vaccination campaign against pandemic H1N1 influenza virus, especially targeting pregnant women, a high risk group for severe illness. The study objective was to evaluate pandemic flu vaccine uptake and factors associated with non-vaccination in a population of pregnant women. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In a prospective cohort conducted in 3 maternity hospitals in Paris, 882 pregnant women were randomly included between October 12, 2009 and February 3, 2010, with the aim to study characteristics of pandemic influenza during pregnancy. At inclusion, socio-demographic, medical, obstetrical factors and those associated with a higher risk of flu exposition and disease-spreading were systematically collected. Pandemic flu vaccine uptake was checked until delivery. 555 (62.9%) women did not get vaccinated. Determinants associated with non-vaccination in a multivariate logistic regression were: geographic origin (Sub-Saharan African origin, adjusted Odd Ratio aOR = 5.4[2.3-12.7], North African origin, aOR = 2.5[1.3-4.7] and Asian origin, aOR = 2.1[1.7-2.6] compared to French and European origin) and socio-professional categories (farmers, craftsmen and tradesmen, aOR = 2.3[2.0-2.6], intermediate professionals, aOR = 1.3[1.0-1.6], employees and manual workers, aOR = 2.5[1.4-4.4] compared to managers and intellectual professionals). The probability of not receiving pandemic flu vaccine was lower among women vaccinated against seasonal flu in the previous 5 years (aOR = 0.6[0.4-0.8]) and among those who stopped smoking before or early during pregnancy (aOR = 0.6[0.4-0.8]). Number of children less than 18 years old living at home, work in contact with children or in healthcare area, or professional contact with the public, were not associated with a higher vaccine uptake. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In this cohort of pregnant women, vaccine coverage against pandemic 2009 A/H1N1 flu was low, particularly in immigrant women and those having a low socio-economic status. To improve its effectiveness, future vaccination campaign for pregnant women should be more specifically tailored for these populations

Circulating Glucagon 1-61 Regulates Blood Glucose by Increasing Insulin Secretion and Hepatic Glucose Production

Glucagon is secreted from pancreatic a cells, and hypersecretion (hyperglucagonemia) contributes to diabetic hyperglycemia. Molecular heterogeneity in hyperglucagonemia is poorly investigated. By screening human plasma using high-resolution-proteomics, we identified several glucagon variants, among which proglucagon 1-61 (PG 1-61) appears to be the most abundant form. PG 1-61 is secreted in subjects with obesity, both before and after gastric bypass surgery, with protein and fat as the main drivers for secretion before surgery, but glucose after. Studies in hepatocytes and in b cells demonstrated that PG 1-61 dose-dependently increases levels of cAMP, through the glucagon receptor, and increases insulin secretion and protein levels of enzymes regulating glycogenolysis and gluconeogenesis. In rats, PG 1-61 increases blood glucose and plasma insulin and decreases plasma levels of amino acids in vivo. We conclude that glucagon variants, such as PG 1-61, may contribute to glucose regulation by stimulating hepatic glucose production and insulin secretion

Trends and inequalities in short-term acute myocardial infarction case fatality in Scotland, 1988-2004

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There have been substantial declines in ischemic heart disease in Scotland, partly due to decreases in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) incidence and case fatality (CF). Despite this, Scotland's IHD mortality rates are among the worst in Europe. We examine trends in socioeconomic inequalities in short-term CF after a first AMI event and their associations with age, sex, and geography.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used linked hospital discharge and death records covering the Scottish population (5.1 million). Between 1988 and 2004, 178,781 of 372,349 patients with a first AMI died on the day of the event (Day0 CF) and 34,198 died within 28 days after surviving the day of their AMI (Day1-27 CF).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Age-standardized Day0 CF at 30+ years decreased from 51% in 1988-90 to 41% in 2003-04. Day1-27 CF decreased from 29% to 18% over that period. Socioeconomic inequalities in Day0 CF existed for both sexes and persisted over time. The odds of case fatality for men aged 30-59 living in the most deprived areas in 2000-04 were 1.7 (95%CI: 1.3-2.2) times as high as in the least deprived areas and 1.9 (1.1-3.2) times as high for women. There was little evidence of socioeconomic inequality in Day1-27 CF in men or women. After adjustment for socioeconomic deprivation, significant geographic variation still remained for both CF definitions.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A high proportion of AMI incidents in Scotland result in death on the day of the first event; many of these are sudden cardiac deaths. Short-term CF has improved, perhaps reflecting treatment advances and reductions in first AMI severity. However, persistent socioeconomic and geographic inequalities suggest these improvements are not uniform across all population groups, emphasizing the need for population-wide primary prevention.</p

Paleo-methane emissions recorded in foraminifera near the landward limit of the gas hydrate stability zone offshore western Svalbard

We present stable isotope and geochemical data from four sediment cores from west of Prins Karls Forland (ca. 340 m water depth), offshore western Svalbard, recovered from close to sites of active methane seepage, as well as from shallower water depths where methane seepage is not presently observed. Our analyses provide insight into the record of methane seepage in an area where ongoing ocean warming may be fueling the destabilization of shallow methane hydrate. The ?13C values of benthic and planktonic foraminifera at the methane seep sites show distinct intervals with negative values (as low as ?27.8‰) that do not coincide with the present-day depth of the sulfate methane transition zone (SMTZ). These intervals are interpreted to record long-term fluctuations in methane release at the present-day landward limit of the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ). Shifts in the radiocarbon ages obtained from planktonic foraminifera toward older values are related to methane-derived authigenic carbonate overgrowths of the foraminiferal tests, and prevent us from establishing the chronology of seepage events. At shallower water depths, where seepage is not presently observed, no record of past methane seepage is recorded in foraminifera from sediments spanning the last 14 ka cal BP (14C-AMS dating). ?13C values of foraminiferal carbonate tests appear to be much more sensitive to methane seepage than other sediment parameters. By providing nucleation sites for authigenic carbonate precipitation, foraminifera thus record the position of even a transiently stable SMTZ, which is likely to be a characteristic of temporally variable methane fluxes