Do mutual funds have consistency in their performance?

Using a comprehensive data set of 714 Chinese mutual funds from 2004 to 2015, the study investigates these funds’ performance persistence by using the Capital Asset Pricing model, the Fama-French three-factor model and the Carhart Four-factor model. For persistence analysis, we categorize mutual funds into eight octiles based on their one year lagged performance and then observe their performance for the subsequent 12 months. We also apply Cross-Product Ratio technique to assess the performance persistence in these Chinese funds. The study finds no significant evidence of persis- tence in the performance of the mutual funds. Winner (loser) funds do not continue to be winner (loser) funds in the subsequent time period. These findings suggest that future performance of funds cannot be predicted based on their past performance.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Retrospective model-based inference guides model-free credit assignment

An extensive reinforcement learning literature shows that organisms assign credit efficiently, even under conditions of state uncertainty. However, little is known about credit-assignment when state uncertainty is subsequently resolved. Here, we address this problem within the framework of an interaction between model-free (MF) and model-based (MB) control systems. We present and support experimentally a theory of MB retrospective-inference. Within this framework, a MB system resolves uncertainty that prevailed when actions were taken thus guiding an MF credit-assignment. Using a task in which there was initial uncertainty about the lotteries that were chosen, we found that when participants’ momentary uncertainty about which lottery had generated an outcome was resolved by provision of subsequent information, participants preferentially assigned credit within a MF system to the lottery they retrospectively inferred was responsible for this outcome. These findings extend our knowledge about the range of MB functions and the scope of system interactions

Bianchi Type-II String Cosmological Models in Normal Gauge for Lyra's Manifold with Constant Deceleration Parameter

The present study deals with a spatially homogeneous and anisotropic Bianchi-II cosmological models representing massive strings in normal gauge for Lyra's manifold by applying the variation law for generalized Hubble's parameter that yields a constant value of deceleration parameter. The variation law for Hubble's parameter generates two types of solutions for the average scale factor, one is of power-law type and other is of the exponential form. Using these two forms, Einstein's modified field equations are solved separately that correspond to expanding singular and non-singular models of the universe respectively. The energy-momentum tensor for such string as formulated by Letelier (1983) is used to construct massive string cosmological models for which we assume that the expansion ($\theta$) in the model is proportional to the component $\sigma^{1}_{~1}$ of the shear tensor $\sigma^{j}_{i}$. This condition leads to $A = (BC)^{m}$, where A, B and C are the metric coefficients and m is proportionality constant. Our models are in accelerating phase which is consistent to the recent observations. It has been found that the displacement vector $\beta$ behaves like cosmological term $\Lambda$ in the normal gauge treatment and the solutions are consistent with recent observations of SNe Ia. It has been found that massive strings dominate in the decelerating universe whereas strings dominate in the accelerating universe. Some physical and geometric behaviour of these models are also discussed.Comment: 24 pages, 10 figure

Visual parameter optimisation for biomedical image processing

Background: Biomedical image processing methods require users to optimise input parameters to ensure high quality output. This presents two challenges. First, it is difficult to optimise multiple input parameters for multiple input images. Second, it is difficult to achieve an understanding of underlying algorithms, in particular, relationships between input and output. Results: We present a visualisation method that transforms users’ ability to understand algorithm behaviour by integrating input and output, and by supporting exploration of their relationships. We discuss its application to a colour deconvolution technique for stained histology images and show how it enabled a domain expert to identify suitable parameter values for the deconvolution of two types of images, and metrics to quantify deconvolution performance. It also enabled a breakthrough in understanding by invalidating an underlying assumption about the algorithm. Conclusions: The visualisation method presented here provides analysis capability for multiple inputs and outputs in biomedical image processing that is not supported by previous analysis software. The analysis supported by our method is not feasible with conventional trial-and-error approaches

The statistical neuroanatomy of frontal networks in the macaque

We were interested in gaining insight into the functional properties of frontal networks based upon their anatomical inputs. We took a neuroinformatics approach, carrying out maximum likelihood hierarchical cluster analysis on 25 frontal cortical areas based upon their anatomical connections, with 68 input areas representing exterosensory, chemosensory, motor, limbic, and other frontal inputs. The analysis revealed a set of statistically robust clusters. We used these clusters to divide the frontal areas into 5 groups, including ventral-lateral, ventral-medial, dorsal-medial, dorsal-lateral, and caudal-orbital groups. Each of these groups was defined by a unique set of inputs. This organization provides insight into the differential roles of each group of areas and suggests a gradient by which orbital and ventral-medial areas may be responsible for decision-making processes based on emotion and primary reinforcers, and lateral frontal areas are more involved in integrating affective and rational information into a common framework

Correlation functions quantify super-resolution images and estimate apparent clustering due to over-counting

We present an analytical method to quantify clustering in super-resolution localization images of static surfaces in two dimensions. The method also describes how over-counting of labeled molecules contributes to apparent self-clustering and how the effective lateral resolution of an image can be determined. This treatment applies to clustering of proteins and lipids in membranes, where there is significant interest in using super-resolution localization techniques to probe membrane heterogeneity. When images are quantified using pair correlation functions, the magnitude of apparent clustering due to over-counting will vary inversely with the surface density of labeled molecules and does not depend on the number of times an average molecule is counted. Over-counting does not yield apparent co-clustering in double label experiments when pair cross-correlation functions are measured. We apply our analytical method to quantify the distribution of the IgE receptor (Fc{\epsilon}RI) on the plasma membranes of chemically fixed RBL-2H3 mast cells from images acquired using stochastic optical reconstruction microscopy (STORM) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). We find that apparent clustering of labeled IgE bound to Fc{\epsilon}RI detected with both methods arises from over-counting of individual complexes. Thus our results indicate that these receptors are randomly distributed within the resolution and sensitivity limits of these experiments.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figure

Bridging Time Scales in Cellular Decision Making with a Stochastic Bistable Switch

Cellular transformations which involve a significant phenotypical change of the cell's state use bistable biochemical switches as underlying decision systems. In this work, we aim at linking cellular decisions taking place on a time scale of years to decades with the biochemical dynamics in signal transduction and gene regulation, occuring on a time scale of minutes to hours. We show that a stochastic bistable switch forms a viable biochemical mechanism to implement decision processes on long time scales. As a case study, the mechanism is applied to model the initiation of follicle growth in mammalian ovaries, where the physiological time scale of follicle pool depletion is on the order of the organism's lifespan. We construct a simple mathematical model for this process based on experimental evidence for the involved genetic mechanisms. Despite the underlying stochasticity, the proposed mechanism turns out to yield reliable behavior in large populations of cells subject to the considered decision process. Our model explains how the physiological time constant may emerge from the intrinsic stochasticity of the underlying gene regulatory network. Apart from ovarian follicles, the proposed mechanism may also be of relevance for other physiological systems where cells take binary decisions over a long time scale.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figure