35 research outputs found
Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species
To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their
distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these
predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard
of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of
known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before
projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered
Bonelli’s Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to
a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that
the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its
distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of
linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered
species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species’ distribution, instead of building new models that are
based on climate change variables only.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS
Dva zanimljiva terminološka rječnika
Authors thank United States Fleet Forces Command and Naval Facilities Engineering Command Atlantic for funding and support for the development of this gap analysis.Heterogeneous data collection in the marine environment has led to large gaps in our knowledge of marine species distributions. To fill these gaps, models calibrated on existing data may be used to predict species distributions in unsampled areas, given that available data are sufficiently representative. Our objective was to evaluate the feasibility of mapping cetacean densities across the entire Mediterranean Sea using models calibrated on available survey data and various environmental covariates. We aggregated 302,481 km of line transect survey effort conducted in the Mediterranean Sea within the past 20 years by many organisations. Survey coverage was highly heterogeneous geographically and seasonally: large data gaps were present in the eastern and southern Mediterranean and in non-summer months. We mapped the extent of interpolation versus extrapolation and the proportion of data nearby in environmental space when models calibrated on existing survey data were used for prediction across the entire Mediterranean Sea. Using model predictions to map cetacean densities in the eastern and southern Mediterranean, characterised by warmer, less productive waters, and more intense eddy activity, would lead to potentially unreliable extrapolations. We stress the need for systematic surveys of cetaceans in these environmentally unique Mediterranean waters, particularly in non-summer months.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe