Resilience and regime shifts in a marine biodiversity hotspot

Complex natural systems, spanning from individuals and populations to ecosystems and socialecological systems, often exhibit abrupt reorganizations in response to changing stressors, known as regime shifts or critical transitions. Theory suggests that such systems feature folded stability landscapes with fluctuating resilience, fold-bifurcations, and alternate basins of attraction. However, the implementation of such features to elucidate response mechanisms in an empirical context is scarce, due to the lack of generic approaches to quantify resilience dynamics in individual natural systems. Here, we introduce an Integrated Resilience Assessment (IRA) framework: a three-step analytical process to assess resilience and construct stability landscapes of empirical systems. The proposed framework involves a multivariate analysis to estimate holistic system indicator variables, non-additive modelling to estimate alternate attractors, and a quantitative resilience assessment to scale stability landscapes. We implement this framework to investigate the temporal development of the Mediterranean marine communities in response to sea warming during 1985–2013, using fisheries landings data. Our analysis revealed a nonlinear tropicalisation of the Mediterranean Sea, expressed as abrupt shifts to regimes dominated by thermophilic species. The approach exemplified here for the Mediterranean Sea, revealing previously unknown resilience dynamics driven by climate forcing, can elucidate resilience and shifts in other complex systems

Non-linearities, regime shifts and recovery: The recent influence of climate on Black Sea chlorophyll

The Black Sea ecosystem experienced severe eutrophication-related degradation during the 1970s and 1980s. However, in recent years the Black Sea has shown some signs of recovery which are often attributed to a reduction in nutrient loading. Here, SeaWiFS chlorophyll a (chl a), a proxy for phytoplankton biomass, is used to investigate spatio-temporal patterns in Black Sea phytoplankton dynamics and to explore the potential role of climate in the Black Sea's recovery. Maps of chl a anomalies, calculated relative to the 8 year mean, emphasize spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton biomass in the Black Sea, particularly between the riverine-influenced Northwest Shelf and the open Black Sea. Evolution of phytoplankton biomass has shown significant spatial variability of persistence of optimal bloom conditions between three major regions of the Black Sea. With the exception of 2001, chl a has generally decreased during our 8 year time-series. However, the winter of 2000-2001 was anomalously warm with low wind stress, resulting in reduced vertical mixing of the water column and retention of nutrients in the photic zone. These conditions were associated with anomalously high levels of chl a throughout much of the open Black Sea during the following spring and summer. The unusual climatic conditions occurring in 2001 may have triggered a shift in the Black Sea's chl a regime. The long-term significance of this recent shift is still uncertain but illustrates a non-linear response to climate forcing that makes future ecosystem changes in the pelagic Black Sea ecosystem difficult to predict. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Impacts of warming on phytoplankton abundance and phenology in a typical tropical marine ecosystem

In the tropics, thermal stratification (during warm conditions) may contribute to a shallowing of the mixed layer above the nutricline and a reduction in the transfer of nutrients to the surface lit-layer, ultimately limiting phytoplankton growth. Using remotely sensed observations and modelled datasets, we study such linkages in the northern Red Sea (NRS) - a typical tropical marine ecosystem. We assess the interannual variability (1998–2015) of both phytoplankton biomass and phenological indices (timing of bloom initiation, duration and termination) in relation to regional warming. We demonstrate that warmer conditions in the NRS are associated with substantially weaker winter phytoplankton blooms, which initiate later, terminate earlier and are shorter in their overall duration (~ 4 weeks). These alterations are directly linked with the strength of atmospheric forcing (air-sea heat fluxes) and vertical stratification (mixed layer depth [MLD]). The interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be a good indicator of phytoplankton abundance, but appears to be less important for predicting bloom timing. These findings suggest that future climate warming scenarios may have a two-fold impact on phytoplankton growth in tropical marine ecosystems: 1) a reduction in phytoplankton abundance and 2) alterations in the timing of seasonal phytoplankton blooms

Evaluation of Satellite Retrievals of Chlorophyll-a in the Arabian Gulf

The Arabian Gulf is a highly turbid, shallow sedimentary basin whose coastal areas have been classified as optically complex Case II waters (where ocean colour sensors have been proved to be unreliable). Yet, there is no such study assessing the performance and quality of satellite ocean-colour datasets in relation to ground truth data in the Gulf. Here, using a unique set of in situ Chlorophyll-a measurements (Chl-a; an index of phytoplankton biomass), collected from 24 locations in four transects in the central Gulf over six recent research cruises (2015–2016), we evaluated the performance of VIIRS and other merged satellite datasets, for the first time in the region. A highly significant relationship was found (r = 0.795, p < 0.001), though a clear overestimation in satellite-derived Chl-a concentrations is evident. Regardless of this constant overestimation, the remotely sensed Chl-a observations illustrated adequately the seasonal cycles. Due to the optically complex environment, the first optical depth was calculated to be on average 6–10 m depth, and thus the satellite signal is not capturing the deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM at ~25 m). Overall, the ocean colour sensors’ performance was comparable to other Case II waters in other regions, supporting the use of satellite ocean colour in the Gulf. Yet, the development of a regional-tuned algorithm is needed to account for the unique environmental conditions of the Gulf, and ultimately provide a better estimation of surface Chl-a in the region

Impact of El Niño variability on oceanic phytoplankton

This is the final version. Available from Frontiers Media via the DOI in this recordOceanic phytoplankton respond rapidly to a complex spectrum of climate-driven perturbations, confounding attempts to isolate the principal causes of observed changes. A dominant mode of variability in the Earth-climate system is that generated by the El Niño phenomenon. Marked variations are observed in the centroid of anomalous warming in the Equatorial Pacific under El Niño, associated with quite different alterations in environmental and biological properties. Here, using observational and reanalysis datasets, we differentiate the regional physical forcing mechanisms, and compile a global atlas of associated impacts on oceanic phytoplankton caused by two extreme types of El Niño. We find robust evidence that during Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) types of El Niño, impacts on phytoplankton can be felt everywhere, but tend to be greatest in the tropics and subtropics, encompassing up to 67% of the total affected areas, with the remaining 33% being areas located in high-latitudes. Our analysis also highlights considerable and sometimes opposing regional effects. During EP El Niño, we estimate decreases of -56 TgC/y in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, and -82 TgC/y in the western Indian Ocean, and increase of +13 TgC/y in eastern Indian Ocean, whereas during CP El Niño, we estimate decreases -68 TgC/y in the tropical western Pacific Ocean and -10 TgC/y in the central Atlantic Ocean. We advocate that analysis of the dominant mechanisms forcing the biophysical under El Niño variability may provide a useful guide to improve our understanding of projected changes in the marine ecosystem in a warming climate and support development of adaptation and mitigation plans

Evaluating tropical phytoplankton phenology metrics using contemporary tools

The timing of phytoplankton growth (phenology) in tropical oceans is a crucial factor influencing the survival rates of higher trophic levels, food web structure and the functioning of coral reef ecosystems. Phytoplankton phenology is thus categorised as an ‘ecosystem indicator’, which can be utilised to assess ecosystem health in response to environmental and climatic perturbations. Ocean-colour remote sensing is currently the only technique providing global, long-term, synoptic estimates of phenology. However, due to limited available in situ datasets, studies dedicated to the validation of satellite-derived phenology metrics are sparse. The recent development of autonomous oceanographic observation platforms provides an opportunity to bridge this gap. Here, we use satellite-derived surface chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) observations, in conjunction with a Biogeochemical-Argo dataset, to assess the capability of remote sensing to estimate phytoplankton phenology metrics in the northern Red Sea – a typical tropical marine ecosystem. We find that phenology metrics derived from both contemporary platforms match with a high degree of precision (within the same 5-day period). The remotely-sensed surface signatures reflect the overall water column dynamics and successfully capture Chl-a variability related to convective mixing. Our findings offer important insights into the capability of remote sensing for monitoring food availability in tropical marine ecosystems, and support the use of satellite-derived phenology as an ecosystem indicator for marine management strategies in regions with limited data availability

Seasonal phytoplankton blooms in the Gulf of Aden revealed by remote sensing

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.  The Gulf of Aden, situated in the northwest Arabian Sea and linked to the Red Sea, is a relatively unexplored ecosystem. Understanding of large-scale biological dynamics is limited by the lack of adequate datasets. In this study, we analyse 15 years of remotely-sensed chlorophyll-a data (Chl-a, an index of phytoplankton biomass) acquired from the Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI) of the European Space Agency (ESA). The improved spatial coverage of OC-CCI data in the Gulf of Aden allows, for the first time, an investigation into the full seasonal succession of phytoplankton biomass. Analysis of indices of phytoplankton phenology (bloom timing) reveals distinct phytoplankton growth periods in different parts of the gulf: a large peak during August (mid-summer) in the western part of the gulf, and a smaller peak during November (mid-autumn) in the lower central gulf and along the southern coastline. The summer bloom develops rapidly at the beginning of July, and its peak is approximately three times higher than that of the autumnal bloom. Remotely-sensed sea-surface temperature (SST), wind-stress curl, vertical nutrient profiles and geostrophic currents inferred from the sea-level anomaly, were analysed to examine the underlying physical mechanisms that control phytoplankton growth. During summer, the prevailing southwesterlies cause upwelling along the northern coastline of the gulf (Yemen), leading to an increase in nutrient availability and enhancing phytoplankton growth along the coastline and in the western part of the gulf. In contrast, in the central region of the gulf, lowest concentrations of Chl-a are observed during summer, due to strong downwelling caused by a mesoscale anticyclonic eddy. During autumn, the prevailing northeasterlies enable upwelling along the southern coastline (Somalia) causing local nutrient enrichment in the euphotic zone, leading to higher levels of phytoplankton biomass along the coastline and in the lower central gulf. The monsoon wind reversal is shown to play a key role in controlling phytoplankton growth in different regions of the Gulf of Aden.European Space Agenc

A singular value decomposition approach for detecting and delineating harmful algal blooms in the Red Sea

This is the final version. Available from Frontiers Media via the DOI in this record. Data availability statement: The raw data supporting the conclusions of this article will be made available by the authors, without undue reservation.Harmful algal blooms (HABs) have adverse effects on marine ecosystems. An effective approach for detecting, monitoring, and eventually predicting the occurrences of such events is required. By combining a singular value decomposition (SVD) approach and satellite remote sensing observations, we propose a remote sensing algorithm to detect and delineate species-specific HABs. We implemented and tested the proposed SVD algorithm to detect HABs associated with the mixed assemblages of different phytoplankton functional type (PFT) groupings in the Red Sea. The results were validated with concurrent in-situ data from surface samples, demonstrating that the SVD-model performs remarkably well at detecting and distinguishing HAB species in the Red Sea basin. The proposed SVD-model offers a cost-effective tool for implementing an automated remote-sensing monitoring system for detecting HAB species in the basin. Such a monitoring system could be used for predicting HAB outbreaks based on near real-time measurements, essential to support aquaculture industries, desalination plants, tourism, and public health.UK Research and InnovationPlymouth Marine Laboratory (PML)King Abdullah University of Science and Technolog

The Continuous Plankton Recorder survey: how can long-term phytoplankton datasets contribute to the assessment of Good Environmental Status?

Phytoplankton are crucial to marine ecosystem functioning and are important indicators of environmental change. Phytoplankton data are also essential for informing management and policy, particularly in supporting the new generation of marine legislative drivers, which take a holistic ecosystem approach to management. The Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) seeks to achieve Good Environmental Status (GES) of European seas through the implementation of such a management approach. This is a regional scale directive which recognises the importance of plankton communities in marine ecosystems; plankton data at the appropriate spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales are therefore required for implementation. The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey is a multidecadal, North Atlantic–basin scale programme which routinely records approximately 300 phytoplankton taxa. Because of these attributes, the survey plays a key role in the implementation of the MSFD and the assessment of GES in the Northeast Atlantic region. This paper addresses the role of the CPR's phytoplankton time-series in delivering GES through the development and informing of MSFD indicators, the setting of targets against a background of climate change and the provision of supporting information used to interpret change in non-plankton indicators. We also discuss CPR data in the context of other phytoplankton data types that may contribute to GES, as well as explore future possibilities for the use of new and innovative applications of CPR phytoplankton datasets in delivering GES. Efforts must be made to preserve long-term time series, such as the CPR, which supply vital ecological information used to informed evidence-based environmental policy

Factors governing the deep ventilation of the Red Sea

A variety of data based on hydrographic measurements, satellite observations, reanalysis databases, and meteorological observations are used to explore the interannual variability and factors governing the deep water formation in the northern Red Sea. Historical and recent hydrographic data consistently indicate that the ventilation of the near-bottom layer in the Red Sea is a robust feature of the thermohaline circulation. Dense water capable to reach the bottom layers of the Red Sea can be regularly produced mostly inside the Gulfs of Aqaba and Suez. Occasionally, during colder than usual winters, deep water formation may also take place over coastal areas in the northernmost end of the open Red Sea just outside the Gulfs of Aqaba and Suez. However, the origin as well as the amount of deep waters exhibit considerable interannual variability depending not only on atmospheric forcing but also on the water circulation over the northern Red Sea. Analysis of several recent winters shows that the strength of the cyclonic gyre prevailing in the northernmost part of the basin can effectively influence the sea surface temperature (SST) and intensify or moderate the winter surface cooling. Upwelling associated with periods of persistent gyre circulation lowers the SST over the northernmost part of the Red Sea and can produce colder than normal winter SST even without extreme heat loss by the sea surface. In addition, the occasional persistence of the cyclonic gyre feeds the surface layers of the northern Red Sea with nutrients, considerably increasing the phytoplankton biomass