On the Utility of Parents\u27 Historical Data to Investigate the Causes of Autism Spectrum Disorder: A Data Mining-Based Framework

Objective: Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is acknowledged as a challenge that influences the learning ability of adolescents and also negatively impacts their families. Autism may be caused due to environmental exposure or genetically inherited disorder, however, no definitive or universally customary reasons are known. This makes the issue fairly challenging. Material and methods: This work focuses on identifying the reasons of ASD utilizing computational methods. For this, data is collected that focuses on parental history for finding the trigged features by reviewing antenatal, perinatal, and infant hazard factors of ASD. Afterwards, ML techniques are applied on the collected instances to develop a predictive model and identify the reasons to ASD. While collecting the data, samples are obtained for ASD and non-ASD individuals both. A total of 115 features are obtained from each subject. The collected dataset has 47% samples of the subjects with ASD. Dimensionality reduction, and four feature selection methods are applied on the data to eliminate noise and least valued features. The data is verified using two clustering techniques, i.e., k-means and k-medoid. To validate the clustering results five clustering validation indices are used. Later, three classifiers, i.e. k-nearest neighbor (k-NN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) are trained to predict cases with ASD. The frequent items mining technique and the descriptive analysis of the clustered data are utilized to identify the factors that may cause ASD. Results: The proposed framework enables to identify the features that may contribute towards ASD. Whereas, for the classification part, SVM classifier performs better than others do with an average accuracy of 98.34% in predicting the ASD cases. Conclusion: The results identified stress as the dominant feature and environmental factors, like frequent use of canned food and plastic/steel bottles during fertilization period that may contribute towards ASD

Determine the Severity of Acute Respiratory Infections by Using Pediatric Respiratory Severity Score (PRESS) in Children Visiting Federal Govt. Polyclinic hospital, Islamabad

Objective: To determine the severity of acute respiratory infections in children by using Pediatric Respiratory Severity Score (PRESS). Methodology: This descriptive cross sectional study was conducted at the outpatient and emergency paediatric department of the Federal Govt. Polyclinic hospital, Islamabad, from October 2017 to December 2019. One hundred and seventeen children with acute respiratory infections were enrolled in the study by a non-probability sampling technique. Epidemiologic variables of interest included age, sex, and breastfeeding or not. Clinical variables of interest included respiratory rate, use of accessory respiratory muscle, wheeze on auscultation, and oxygen saturation at room air.  PRESS assessed tachypnea, wheezing, accessory muscle use, SpO2 and feeding difficulties with each component given a score of 0 or 1, and the total score were categorized as a mild(0-1), moderate (2-3) or severe(4-5). Results: Out of 117 children, 98 (83.8%) belonged to the age group > 2 months– 12 months, while 19 (16.2%) belonged to the age group > 12 months– 24 months. Among them, 17 (14.5%) were mild, 53 (45.3%) were moderate, and 47 (40.2%) were severe according to their severity of respiratory distress. The hospitalization rate for moderate infection was 84.9% while 100% for severe infection and none of the patient with mild infection was hospitalized (p<0.001). Conclusion: Early assessment by simple bedside technique will help in managing the respiratory distress according to its severity, reducing the undue investigation and improving the outcome of illness. Moreover it can be easily administered at primary health care facilities for triage of pediatric patients with respiratory distress

Cytotoxic and antiviral potentials of Euphorbia milii var. splendens leaf against Peste des petits ruminant virus

Purpose: To determine the cytotoxic and antiviral potentials of Euphorbia milii var. splendens leaf against Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV). Methods: The methanol extract, as well as n- hexane, chloroform, ethyl acetate, and n- butanol fractions of E. milii leaves were screened for cytotoxic and antiviral activities against PPRV using Vero cell line and 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,diphenyltetrazolium bromide (MTT) assay. Results: Non-cytotoxic concentrations with cell survival rate (CSP) greater than 50 % were considered virucidal. Methanol extract and fractions produced significant (p < 0.05) effects at all test concentrations against PPRV. The 50 % cytotoxic concentration (CC50) calculated was ≤ 25 µg/mL for extract and fractions. In antiviral assay, ethyl acetate, n-hexane, and n-butanol fractions at all test concentrations ranging from 1.56 - 800 µg/mL were non-virucidal; even at their non-cytotoxic concentrations these fractions did not show antiviral activities. However, the methanol extract and its chloroform fractions showed significant (p < 0.05) virucidal potential. Conclusion: The results suggest that further isolation of antiviral constituents from the fractions may open new horizons for the development of new antiviral agents

Arsenic Induced Toxicity in Broiler Chicks and Its Amelioration with Ascorbic Acid: Clinical, Hematological and Pathological Study

This study was conducted to observe the arsenic (As) toxicity lesions in birds and to know either Vit C ameliorates these toxic effects or not. One-day-old broilers chicks (n=72) procured from a local hatchery were randomly divided into four equal groups. First group was kept as control and second group was given As (50 mg/kg BW) via crop tubing. Third group received in addition to As, Vit C (250 mg/kg BW) whereas fourth group received only Vit C. Killing by neck dislocation of randomly selected six birds from each group was carried out on experimental days 0, 16 and 32 for collection of blood and tissues specimens. Arsenic treated birds showed clinical signs of toxicity throughout the experiment than all other groups. These clinical signs included decreased body weight and feed intake, dullness, open mouth breathing, increased thirst, ruffled feathers, pale comb, skin irritation and watery diarrhea which were not significant in any other group. As treated group showed a significant (P<0.05) decrease in hematological parameters. Severe gross and histopathological changes were observed in intestines, spleen and lungs of birds fed with As than all other groups. Decreased height of villi of middle portion of small intestines was also observed in As treated birds. Villi height in Vit C treated group increased as compared to control group. It was concluded that As induces severe toxic effects in broiler birds; however, these toxic effects can be partially ameliorated by Vit C

Synthesis of 3-[4-(2-furoyl)-1-piperazinyl]-N- (substituted)propanamides as promising antibacterial agents with mild cytotoxicity

Purpose: To evaluate the antibacterial activity and cytotoxicity of a series of molecules with amalgamation of furoyl, piperazine and amide moieties.Methods: New derivatives, namely 3-[4-(2-furoyl)-1-piperazinyl]-N-(substituted) propanamides, were synthesized and evaluated for their antibacterial activity and toxicity to mammalian cells. The synthesis was initiated by treating different aryl/aralkyl amines (1a-u) with 3-bromopropionyl chloride (2) to obtain the solid electrophiles 3a-u, which were collected by filtration. Thereafter, the different N-aryl/aralkyl-3- bromopropionamides (3a-u) and 2-furoyl-1-piperazine (4) at equimolar ratios were allowed to react in acetonitrile and in the presence of a base, K2CO3, to form the target compounds, 5a-u. Structural elucidation was carried out using EI-MS (electron impact mass spectrometry), IR (infrared) and 1H-NMR (proton nuclear magnetic resonance). The antibacterial activity of the synthesized compounds was evaluated against various bacterial strains. Furthermore, hemolysis was determined to assess cytotoxicity using bovine red blood cells.Results: Molecules 5g, 5a, 5p, 5g and 5i were found to be potent agents against S. aureus, S. typhi, P. aeruginosa, E. coli and B. subtilis with respective minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) values of 8.34 ± 0.55, 8.37 ± 0.12, 8.65 ± 0.57, 8.97 ± 0.12 and 9.24 ± 0.50 μM, compared to 7.80 ± 0.19, 7.45 ± 0.58, 7.14 ± 0.58, 7.16 ± 0.58 and 7.29 ± 0.90 μM for the reference standard, ciprofloxacin. The most active compounds, 5a, 5g, 5i and 5p, showed a hemolysis of 15.48, 8.03, 5.52 and 4.35 %, respectively.Conclusion: The synthesized compounds exhibit good antibacterial activity. The hemolysis data indicate that these compounds have a low toxicity level. However, in vivo studies are required to ascertain their potentials as new drug candidates.Keywords: 4-(2-Furoyl)-1-piperazine, 1H-NMR, EI-MS, Antimicrobial activity, Hemolytic activit

Prediction of Pakistani Honey Authenticity through Machine Learning

Honey is a high-demand product in many countries because it is high in nutritional value and rich in antioxidants. Thus, the demand for honey is increased. However, the productivity of honey is naturally lower than its demand. Therefore, honey has often become a target for adulteration. Adulteration of honey is a critical issue because the nutritional value of pure honey is reduced by adding cheap and easily available sweeteners, affecting the consumers’ health. Thus, investigating honey authenticity is popular among regulatory bodies, the food industry, retail sellers, and consumers. Several works have been done to predict the authenticity of honey using various physicochemical features. Few other works have also classified honey on the basis of geographical or botanical origin. However, previous studies have three major limitations. First, the existing studies used the imbalanced datasets, and the performance of these studies further needs attention. Second, as far as we know, no researcher has attempted to use machine learning approaches in investigating the adulteration of Pakistani honey. Finally, the dataset for predicting the authenticity of Pakistani honey is lacking. Therefore, this study proposes a novel classification model to address the aforementioned weaknesses by classifying the authenticity of Pakistani honey using machine learning algorithms and several physicochemical features. This work also presents three classification models systematically to classify the Pakistani honey into three levels. The first level classifies whether the honey is original or branded. The second level classifies the geographical origin. The botanical origin of honey is classified in the third level. Our experimental results show that the proposed features coupled with machine learning algorithms can predict the authenticity of Pakistani honey with outstanding results. We believe that our proposed work will be proved beneficial in reducing the adulteration of Pakistani honey

Examining the generalizability of research findings from archival data

This initiative examined systematically the extent to which a large set of archival research findings generalizes across contexts. We repeated the key analyses for 29 original strategic management effects in the same context (direct reproduction) as well as in 52 novel time periods and geographies; 45% of the reproductions returned results matching the original reports together with 55% of tests in different spans of years and 40% of tests in novel geographies. Some original findings were associated with multiple new tests. Reproducibility was the best predictor of generalizability—for the findings that proved directly reproducible, 84% emerged in other available time periods and 57% emerged in other geographies. Overall, only limited empirical evidence emerged for context sensitivity. In a forecasting survey, independent scientists were able to anticipate which effects would find support in tests in new samples

Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

Background Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. Methods For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dosespecific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in countryreported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. Findings By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81.6% [95% uncertainty interval 80.4-82 .7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39.9% [37.5-42.1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38.5% [35.4-41.3] in 1980 to 83.6% [82.3-84.8] in 2019). Third- dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42.6% (41.4-44.1) in 1980 to 79.8% (78.4-81.1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56.8 million (52.6-60. 9) to 14.5 million (13.4-15.9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. Interpretation After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Adolescent transport and unintentional injuries: a systematic analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents. We sought to report comprehensive trends in injury-related mortality and morbidity for adolescents aged 10–24 years during the past three decades. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study, we analysed mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to transport and unintentional injuries for adolescents in 204 countries. Burden is reported in absolute numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population by sex, age group (10–14, 15–19, and 20–24 years), and sociodemographic index (SDI) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We report percentage changes in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019. Findings: In 2019, 369 061 deaths (of which 214 337 [58%] were transport related) and 31·1 million DALYs (of which 16·2 million [52%] were transport related) among adolescents aged 10–24 years were caused by transport and unintentional injuries combined. If compared with other causes, transport and unintentional injuries combined accounted for 25% of deaths and 14% of DALYs in 2019, and showed little improvement from 1990 when such injuries accounted for 26% of adolescent deaths and 17% of adolescent DALYs. Throughout adolescence, transport and unintentional injury fatality rates increased by age group. The unintentional injury burden was higher among males than females for all injury types, except for injuries related to fire, heat, and hot substances, or to adverse effects of medical treatment. From 1990 to 2019, global mortality rates declined by 34·4% (from 17·5 to 11·5 per 100 000) for transport injuries, and by 47·7% (from 15·9 to 8·3 per 100 000) for unintentional injuries. However, in low-SDI nations the absolute number of deaths increased (by 80·5% to 42 774 for transport injuries and by 39·4% to 31 961 for unintentional injuries). In the high-SDI quintile in 2010–19, the rate per 100 000 of transport injury DALYs was reduced by 16·7%, from 838 in 2010 to 699 in 2019. This was a substantially slower pace of reduction compared with the 48·5% reduction between 1990 and 2010, from 1626 per 100 000 in 1990 to 838 per 100 000 in 2010. Between 2010 and 2019, the rate of unintentional injury DALYs per 100 000 also remained largely unchanged in high-SDI countries (555 in 2010 vs 554 in 2019; 0·2% reduction). The number and rate of adolescent deaths and DALYs owing to environmental heat and cold exposure increased for the high-SDI quintile during 2010–19. Interpretation: As other causes of mortality are addressed, inadequate progress in reducing transport and unintentional injury mortality as a proportion of adolescent deaths becomes apparent. The relative shift in the burden of injury from high-SDI countries to low and low–middle-SDI countries necessitates focused action, including global donor, government, and industry investment in injury prevention. The persisting burden of DALYs related to transport and unintentional injuries indicates a need to prioritise innovative measures for the primary prevention of adolescent injury. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation