Modeling hydrological consequences of climate and land use change - Progress and Challenges

RESUMEN Este artículo resume el estado del arte en relación a la modelación hidrológica y su capacidad de predecir los efectos del cambio climático y del uso de la tierra sobre el ciclo hidrológico. En conclusión, se abordan los retos investigativos que la comunidad científica debería considerar para poder observar y modelar, a escala regional, el ciclo hidrometeorológico en respuesta a los cambios de origen antropogénico sobre el clima y el uso de la tierra. Los resultados presentados en este documento son el producto de una extensa revisión de literatura científica y de la experiencia personal de los autores. Dado que el enfoque principal de este artículo es el de modelación hidrológica, muchos otros aspectos tales como las buenas prácticas de la gestión integrada de los recursos hídricos, la gobernabilidad transfronteriza de las aguas, el establecimiento de marcos de trabajo institucionales, la potenciación de las comunidades locales para su participación efectiva en la gestión del agua y en la formulación de políticas, entre muchos otros aspectos muy relevantes, no se consideran en este artículo para evitar que el enfoque del mismo se diluya de manera innecesaria. Palabras clave: Modelación hidrológica, cambio climático, cambio del uso de la tierra, retos de investigación, revisión extensa de literatura. ABSTRACT This paper provides the state-of-the-art in hydrologic modeling regarding its capability of predicting the effects of climate and land use change on the hydrological cycle. In conclusion, the research challenges are pinpointed, which the community should address as to be able to observe and model, at a regional-scale, the coupled climate-water cycle in response to the human induced changes in climate and land use. The findings presented herein are a compilation resulting from an extensive literature review and the personal expertise of the authors. Given the focus on hydrologic modeling, many other aspects such as the best practices of integrated water resources management, cross-boundary water governance, the establishment of institutional frameworks, empowerment of local communities to participate effectively in water management and policy making, among many other very relevant aspects, were intentionally not considered as not to dilute the focus of the paper

Morfología foliar y estomática y transpiración cuticular en clones de eucalipto

El objetivo de este trabajo fue evaluar aspectos de la morfología foliar relacionados con el consumo de agua en clones de Eucalyptus procedentes de programas de mejora genética. Se utilizaron cinco clones de E. globulus y cuatro clones de híbridos de diversas especies de Eucalyptus. Se cultivaron en vivero al exterior, en contenedores. En 4 épocas del año, coincidentes con las 4 estaciones y en hojas desarrolladas durante cada estación, se evaluó la tasa de transpiración cuticular (Ec), el contenido hídrico relativo (CHRc) y el contenido de humedad en el momento del cierre estomático (Hc), el área foliar específica (SLA) y el tamaño y densidad de los estomas. Se obtuvieron diferencias significativas entre clones y entre fechas de medición. Los rangos de valores obtenidos fueron: densidad de estomas = 171 a 546 mm-2; SLA = 7.3 a 20.4 m2 kg–1; Hc = 51 a 71 %; Ec = 0.07 a 0.59 mmol m-2 s-1. Ello indica que no solo hay variabilidad genética en dichos parámetros sino que los individuos modifican sus parámetros morfo-fisiológicos durante el año para acomodarse a las condiciones ambientales

Meson-exchange currents and quasielastic predictions for charged-current neutrino-12C scattering in the superscaling approach

We evaluate and discuss the impact of meson-exchange currents (MECs) on charged-current quasielastic neutrino cross sections. We consider the nuclear transverse response arising from two-particle two-hole states excited by the action of electromagnetic, purely isovector meson-exchange currents in a fully relativistic framework based on the work by the Torino Collaboration [A. D. Pace, M. Nardi, W. M. Alberico, T. W. Donnelly, and A. Molinari, Nucl. Phys. A726, 303 (2003)]. An accurate parametrization of this MEC response as a function of the momentum and energy transfers involved is presented. Results of neutrino-nucleus cross sections using this MEC parametrization together with a recent scaling approach for the one-particle one-hole contributions (named SuSAv2) are compared with experimental data.DGI FIS2011-28738-C02-0Junta de Andalucía QM-160U.S. Department of Energy DE- SC001109DGI FIS2011-24149Junta de Andalucía FQM22

Improving water management education across the Latin America and Caribbean region

Education can help secure inclusive and resilient development around water resources. However, it is difficult to provide the latest science to those managing water resources (both now and in the future). Collectively, we hypothesize that dissemination and promotion of scientific knowledge using students as central agents to transfer theoretical knowledge into practice is an efficient way to address this difficulty. In this study, we test this hypothesis in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region as a representative case study region. First, we use a literature review to map a potential gap in research on education around water resources across the LAC region. We then review potential best practices to address this gap and to better translate water resources education techniques into the LAC region. Integral to these efforts is adopting students as agents for information transfer to help bridge the gap between the global state-of-the science and local water resources management. Our results highlight the need to establish a new standard of higher educational promoting exchange between countries as local populations are vulnerable to future shifts in climate at global scales and changes in land usage at regional scales. The new standard should include peer-to-peer mentoring achieved by jointly exchanging and training students and practitioners in water management techniques, increasing access to water data and pedagogic information across the region, and lowering administration roadblocks that prevent student exchange

Abundance and morphometry changes across the high-mountain lake-size gradient in the tropical Andes of Southern Ecuador

The number, size, and shape of lakes are key determinants of the ecological functionality of a lake district. The lake area scaling relationships with lake number and volume enable upscaling biogeochemical processes and spatially considering organisms' metapopulation dynamics. These relationships vary regionally depending on the geomorphological context, particularly in the range of lake area 104 m2 and 50% of the water resources are held in a few ones (∼10) deeper than 18 m. Therefore, midlakes and large lakes are by far more biogeochemically relevant than ponds and shallow lakes in this tropical mountain lake district

Clonal chromosomal mosaicism and loss of chromosome Y in elderly men increase vulnerability for SARS-CoV-2

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19) had an estimated overall case fatality ratio of 1.38% (pre-vaccination), being 53% higher in males and increasing exponentially with age. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, we found 133 cases (1.42%) with detectable clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations (mCA) and 226 males (5.08%) with acquired loss of chromosome Y (LOY). Individuals with clonal mosaic events (mCA and/or LOY) showed a 54% increase in the risk of COVID-19 lethality. LOY is associated with transcriptomic biomarkers of immune dysfunction, pro-coagulation activity and cardiovascular risk. Interferon-induced genes involved in the initial immune response to SARS-CoV-2 are also down-regulated in LOY. Thus, mCA and LOY underlie at least part of the sex-biased severity and mortality of COVID-19 in aging patients. Given its potential therapeutic and prognostic relevance, evaluation of clonal mosaicism should be implemented as biomarker of COVID-19 severity in elderly people. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, individuals with clonal mosaic events (clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations and/or loss of chromosome Y) showed an increased risk of COVID-19 lethality

4to. Congreso Internacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación para la Sociedad. Memoria académica

Este volumen acoge la memoria académica de la Cuarta edición del Congreso Internacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación para la Sociedad, CITIS 2017, desarrollado entre el 29 de noviembre y el 1 de diciembre de 2017 y organizado por la Universidad Politécnica Salesiana (UPS) en su sede de Guayaquil. El Congreso ofreció un espacio para la presentación, difusión e intercambio de importantes investigaciones nacionales e internacionales ante la comunidad universitaria que se dio cita en el encuentro. El uso de herramientas tecnológicas para la gestión de los trabajos de investigación como la plataforma Open Conference Systems y la web de presentación del Congreso http://citis.blog.ups.edu.ec/, hicieron de CITIS 2017 un verdadero referente entre los congresos que se desarrollaron en el país. La preocupación de nuestra Universidad, de presentar espacios que ayuden a generar nuevos y mejores cambios en la dimensión humana y social de nuestro entorno, hace que se persiga en cada edición del evento la presentación de trabajos con calidad creciente en cuanto a su producción científica. Quienes estuvimos al frente de la organización, dejamos plasmado en estas memorias académicas el intenso y prolífico trabajo de los días de realización del Congreso Internacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación para la Sociedad al alcance de todos y todas

Maskana. Revista Científica

El balance hídrico asociado a la planificación de un proyecto de riego ubicado en una zona semiárida Chilena se modeló hidrológicamente utilizando el código WEAP21. Se aplicó un protocolo combinado de modelamiento determinístico/estocástico para definir los intervalos de predicción hidrológica del modelo. Se predijeron las implicaciones potenciales del cambio climático en la vida útil del proyecto de riego (año 2070) considerando la variabilidad de los pronósticos de precipitación y temperatura. Así, se consideró el escenario A1B del Informe del Panel Intergubernamental sobre cambio climático 2007, implementado por el Modelo Climático Regional (MCR) PRECIS-ECHAM, que fue desarrollado especialmente para condiciones Chilenas. El estudio reveló que la mayoría de los parámetros del modelo El balance hídrico asociado a la planificación de un proyecto de riego ubicado en una zona semiárida Chilena se modeló hidrológicamente utilizando el código WEAP21. Se aplicó un protocolo combinado de modelamiento determinístico/estocástico para definir los intervalos de predicción hidrológica del modelo. Se predijeron las implicaciones potenciales del cambio climático en la vida útil del proyecto de riego (año 2070) considerando la variabilidad de los pronósticos de precipitación y temperatura. Así, se consideró el escenario A1B del Informe del Panel Intergubernamental sobre cambio climático 2007, implementado por el Modelo Climático Regional (MCR) PRECIS-ECHAM, que fue desarrollado especialmente para condiciones Chilenas. El estudio reveló que la mayoría de los parámetros del modeloThe water balance of an irrigation project in the Chilean semi-arid zone was modelled using the WEAP21 code. A combined deterministic/stochastic protocol was applied for defining the hydrological prediction intervals of the model. Climate Change potential implications on the useful life of the irrigation project (year 2070) were predicted considering the variability in precipitation and temperature forecasts. Thereto, it was considered the scenario A1B of the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, generated by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS-ECHAM, specially developed for Chilean conditions. The study revealed that most of the inspected hydrological model parameters are insensitive to model predictions and the associated simulation limits may be categorized as acceptable. Nevertheless, the structure of WEAP21 had difficulties representing low flows because of the apparent inability to mimic the complex hydro-physical characteristics of the shrink-swell granitic soils which are predominant in the study basin. Even though the original Climate Change projections (CChP) of the RCM were refined, using observations of the historical period, it is important to underline that significant uncertainties may remain and as such the current results should be handled with care. With respect to historical records, mean annual climate forecasts suggest a maximum temperature increment of about +1.1oC and a maximum reduction in precipitation of 20.7%. The hydrological modelling suggests a maximum reduction in the mean annual streamflow of 49.7% and a reduction in the magnitude and frequency of streamflow peaks. Bearing in mind the potential uncertainties attached to CChP, the irrigation project will most probably be significantly affected in terms of water availability and crop water consumption since rainfall is expected to decrease and temperature, and as such evapotranspiration, to increase.Cuencavolumen 8, número

A Simple Approach to Account for Stage–Discharge Uncertainty in Hydrological Modelling

The effect of stage–discharge (H-Q) data uncertainty on the predictions of a MIKE SHE-based distributed model was assessed by conditioning the analysis of model predictions at the outlet of a medium-size catchment and two internal gauging stations. The hydrological modelling was carried out through a combined deterministic–stochastic protocol based on Monte Carlo simulations. The approach considered to account for discharge uncertainty was statistically rather simple and based on (i) estimating the H-Q data uncertainty using prediction bands associated with rating curves; (ii) redefining the traditional concept of residuals to characterise model performance under H-Q data uncertainty conditions; and (iii) calculating a global model performance measure for all gauging stations in the framework of a multi-site (MS) test. The study revealed significant discharge data uncertainties on the order of 3 m3 s−1 for the outlet station and 1.1 m3 s−1 for the internal stations. In general, the consideration of the H-Q data uncertainty and the application of the MS-test resulted in remarkably better parameterisations of the model capable of simulating a particular peak event that otherwise was overestimated. The proposed model evaluation approach under discharge uncertainty is applicable to modelling conditions differing from the ones used in this study, as long as data uncertainty measures are available