On variation and uncertainty

The overall purpose of the 'Statistical Points and Pitfalls' series is to help readers and researchers alike increase awareness of how to use statistics and why/how we fall into inappropriate choices or interpretations. We hope to help readers understand common misconceptions and give clear guidance on how to avoid common pitfalls by offering simple tips to improve your reporting of quantitative research findings. Each entry discusses a commonly encountered inappropriate practice and alternatives from a pragmatic perspective with minimal mathematics involved. We encourage readers to share comments on or suggestions for this section on Twitter, using the hashtag: #mededstats.</p

Assessing Professionalism: A theoretical framework for defining clinical rotation assessment criteria

Although widely accepted as an important graduate competence, professionalism is a challenging outcome to define and assess. Clinical rotations provide an excellent opportunity to develop student professionalism through the use of experiential learning and effective feedback, but without appropriate theoretical frameworks, clinical teachers may find it difficult to identify appropriate learning outcomes. The adage “I know it when I see it” is unhelpful in providing feedback and guidance for student improvement, and criteria that are more specifically defined would help students direct their own development. This study sought first to identify how clinical faculty in one institution currently assess professionalism, using retrospective analysis of material obtained in undergraduate teaching and faculty development sessions. Subsequently, a faculty workshop was held in which a round-table type discussion sought to develop these ideas and identify how professionalism assessment could be improved. The output of this session was a theoretical framework for teaching and assessing professionalism, providing example assessment criteria and ideas for clinical teaching. This includes categories such as client and colleague interaction, respect and trust, recognition of limitations, and understanding of different professional identities. Each category includes detailed descriptions of the knowledge, skills, and behaviors expected of students in these areas. The criteria were determined by engaging faculty in the development of the framework, and therefore they should represent a focused development of criteria already used to assess professionalism, and not a novel and unfamiliar set of assessment guidelines. The faculty-led nature of this framework is expected to facilitate implementation in clinical teaching

The dose–response relationship between training-load measures and aerobic fitness in elite academy soccer players

The aim of the current study is to examine the dose-response relationships between training load (TL) measures and the consequent changes in aerobic fitness. Data were collected over the 6-week pre-season period in elite youth soccer players. Participants completed a lactate threshold test to identify changes in treadmill speed at 2 mmol · l (S2) and 4 mmol · l (S4). Internal TL was quantified with the following training impulse (TRIMP) methods: Banister TRIMP, Edwards TRIMP, Lucia TRIMP, individual TRIMP (iTRIMP) and rate of perceived exertion was also collected. External TL measures were total distance, PlayerLoad, high speed running (14.4-19.8 km · h ), very high-speed running (19.8-25.2 km · h ) and maximal sprint distance (>25.2 km · h ). Individual high-speed distance was derived from each participants treadmill speed at S4. Different Bayesian regression models were run with different likelihood functions. The best-fitting models with both the lowest out-of-sample prediction error and the highest variance explained ( ) were used. iTRIMP had the strongest relationships with changes in S2 (r = 0.93, = 0.90) and S4 (r = 0.88, = 0.82). Explained variance ranged from 10%-69% and 11%-38% for all other internal TL measures and external measures, respectively. In summary, the iTRIMP method demonstrates a dose-response relationship with changes in aerobic fitness in elite youth soccer players

An Information Theory Approach to Hypothesis Testing in Criminological Research

Background: This research demonstrates how the Akaike information criterion (AIC) can be an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing in selecting best fitting models. It presents an example to illustrate how AIC can be used in this way. Methods: Using data from Milwaukee, Wisconsin, we test models of place-based predictor variables on street robbery and commercial robbery. We build models to balance explanatory power and parsimony. Measures include the presence of different kinds of businesses, together with selected age groups and social disadvantage. Results: Models including place-based measures of land use emerged as the best models among the set of tested models. These were superior to models that included measures of age and socioeconomic status. The best models for commercial and street robbery include three measures of ordinary businesses, liquor stores, and spatial lag. Conclusions: Models based on information theory offer a useful alternative to significance testing when a strong theoretical framework guides the selection of model sets. Theoretically relevant ‘ordinary businesses’ have a greater influence on robbery than socioeconomic variables and most measures of discretionary businesses

Global patterns of the leaf economics spectrum in wetlands

Contains fulltext : 226771.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access

Analytic philosophy for biomedical research: the imperative of applying yesterday's timeless messages to today's impasses

The mantra that "the best way to predict the future is to invent it" (attributed to the computer scientist Alan Kay) exemplifies some of the expectations from the technical and innovative sides of biomedical research at present. However, for technical advancements to make real impacts both on patient health and genuine scientific understanding, quite a number of lingering challenges facing the entire spectrum from protein biology all the way to randomized controlled trials should start to be overcome. The proposal in this chapter is that philosophy is essential in this process. By reviewing select examples from the history of science and philosophy, disciplines which were indistinguishable until the mid-nineteenth century, I argue that progress toward the many impasses in biomedicine can be achieved by emphasizing theoretical work (in the true sense of the word 'theory') as a vital foundation for experimental biology. Furthermore, a philosophical biology program that could provide a framework for theoretical investigations is outlined

Family Influences on the Long Term Post-Disaster Recovery of Puerto Rican Youth

This study focused on characteristics of the family environment that may mediate the relationship between disaster exposure and the presence of symptoms that met DSM-IV diagnostic criteria for symptom count and duration for an internalizing disorder in children and youth. We also explored how parental history of mental health problems may moderate this meditational model. Approximately 18 months after Hurricane Georges hit Puerto Rico in 1998, participants were randomly selected based on a probability household sample using 1990 US Census block groups. Caregivers and children (N=1,886 dyads) were interviewed with the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children and other questionnaires in Spanish. Areas of the family environment assessed include parent-child relationship quality, parent-child involvement, parental monitoring, discipline, parents’ relationship quality and parental mental health. SEM models were estimated for parents and children, and by age group. For children (4–10 years old), parenting variables were related to internalizing psychopathology, but did not mediate the exposure-psychopathology relationship. Exposure had a direct relationship to internalizing psychopathology. For youth (11–17 years old), some parenting variables attenuated the relation between exposure and internalizing psychopathology. Family environment factors may play a mediational role in psychopathology post-disaster among youth, compared to an additive role for children. Hurricane exposure had a significant relation to family environment for families without parental history of mental health problems, but no influence for families with a parental history of mental health problems

Statistical inference and the replication crisis

The replication crisis has prompted many to call for statistical reform within the psychological sciences. Here we examine issues within Frequentist statistics that may have led to the replication crisis, and we examine the alternative—Bayesian statistics—that many have suggested as a replacement. The Frequentist approach and the Bayesian approach offer radically different perspectives on evidence and inference with the Frequentist approach prioritising error control and the Bayesian approach offering a formal method for quantifying the relative strength of evidence for hypotheses. We suggest that rather than mere statistical reform, what is needed is a better understanding of the different modes of statistical inference and a better understanding of how statistical inference relates to scientific inference

Treatment Efficacy, Clinical Utility, and Cost-Effectiveness of Multidisciplinary Biopsychosocial Rehabilitation Treatments for Persistent Low Back Pain: A Systematic Review

Study Design: Systematic review. Objectives: To review the current literature on the treatment efficacy, clinical utility, and cost-effectiveness of multidisciplinary biopsychosocial rehabilitation (MBR) for patients suffering from persistent (nonspecific) lower back pain (LBP) in relation to pain intensity, disability, health-related quality of life, and work ability/sick leave. Methods: We carried out a systematic search of Web of Science, Cochrane Library, PubMed Central, EMBASE, and PsycINFO for English- and German-language literature published between January 2010 and July 2017. Study selection consisted of exclusion and inclusion phases. After screening for duplication, studies were excluded on the basis of criteria covering study design, number of participants, language of publication, and provision of information about the intervention. All the remaining articles dealing with the efficacy, utility, or cost-effectiveness of intensive (more than 25 hours per week) MBR encompassing at least 3 health domains and cognitive behavioral therapy–based psychological education were included. Results: The search retrieved 1199 publications of which 1116 were duplicates or met the exclusion criteria. Seventy of the remaining 83 articles did not meet the inclusion criteria; thus 13 studies were reviewed. All studies reporting changes in pain intensity or disability over 12 months after MBR reported moderate effect sizes and/or p-values for both outcomes. The effects on health-related quality of life were mixed, but MBR substantially reduced costs. Overall MBR produced an enduring improvement in work ability despite controversy and variable results. Conclusions: MBR is an effective treatment for nonspecific LBP, but there is room for improvement in cost-effectiveness and impact on sick leave, where the evidence was less compelling