The Illogicality of Stock-Brokers: Psychological Experiments on the Effects of Prior Knowledge and Belief Biases on Logical Reasoning in Stock Trading

BACKGROUND: Explanations for the current worldwide financial crisis are primarily provided by economists and politicians. However, in the present work we focus on the psychological-cognitive factors that most likely affect the thinking of people on the economic stage and thus might also have had an effect on the progression of the crises. One of these factors might be the effect of prior beliefs on reasoning and decision-making. So far, this question has been explored only to a limited extent. METHODS: We report two experiments on logical reasoning competences of nineteen stock-brokers with long-lasting vocational experiences at the stock market. The premises of reasoning problems concerned stock trading and the experiments varied whether or not their conclusions--a proposition which is reached after considering the premises--agreed with the brokers' prior beliefs. Half of the problems had a conclusion that was highly plausible for stock-brokers while the other half had a highly implausible conclusion. RESULTS: The data show a strong belief bias. Stock-brokers were strongly biased by their prior knowledge. Lowest performance was found for inferences in which the problems caused a conflict between logical validity and the experts' belief. In these cases, the stock-brokers tended to make logically invalid inferences rather than give up their existing beliefs. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the thesis that cognitive factors have an effect on the decision-making on the financial market. In the present study, stock-brokers were guided more by past experience and existing beliefs than by logical thinking and rational decision-making. They had difficulties to disengage themselves from vastly anchored thinking patterns. However, we believe, that it is wrong to accuse the brokers for their "malfunctions", because such hard-wired cognitive principles are difficult to suppress even if the person is aware of them

Is every female equal? Caste biasing in tropical paper wasps

Item does not contain fulltextDiseases caused by nontuberculous mycobacteria are emerging in many settings. With an increased number of patients needing treatment, the role of drug susceptibility testing is again in the spotlight. This articles covers the history and methodology of drug susceptibility tests for nontuberculous mycobacteria, but focuses on the correlations between in vitro drug susceptibility, pharmacokinetics and in vivo outcomes of treatment. Among slow-growing nontuberculous mycobacteria, clear correlations have been established for macrolides and amikacin (Mycobacterium avium complex) and for rifampicin (Mycobacterium kansasii). Among rapid-growing mycobacteria, correlations have been established in extrapulmonary disease for aminoglycosides, cefoxitin and co-trimoxazole. In pulmonary disease, correlations are less clear and outcomes of treatment are generally poor, especially for Mycobacterium abscessus. The clinical significance of inducible resistance to macrolides among rapid growers is an important topic. The true role of drug susceptibility testing for nontuberculous mycobacteria still needs to be addressed, preferably within clinical trials

Theories of Willpower Affect Sustained Learning

Building cognitive abilities often requires sustained engagement with effortful tasks. We demonstrate that beliefs about willpower–whether willpower is viewed as a limited or non-limited resource–impact sustained learning on a strenuous mental task. As predicted, beliefs about willpower did not affect accuracy or improvement during the initial phases of learning; however, participants who were led to view willpower as non-limited showed greater sustained learning over the full duration of the task. These findings highlight the interactive nature of motivational and cognitive processes: motivational factors can substantially affect people’s ability to recruit their cognitive resources to sustain learning over time

Stress induced polarization of immune-neuroendocrine phenotypes in Gallus gallus

Immune-neuroendocrine phenotypes (INPs) stand for population subgroups differing in immune-neuroendocrine interactions. While mammalian INPs have been characterized thoroughly in rats and humans, avian INPs were only recently described in Coturnix coturnix (quail). To assess the scope of this biological phenomenon, herein we characterized INPs in Gallus gallus (a domestic hen strain submitted to a very long history of strong selective breeding pressure) and evaluated whether a social chronic stress challenge modulates the individuals’ interplay affecting the INP subsets and distribution. Evaluating plasmatic basal corticosterone, interferon-γ and interleukin-4 concentrations, innate/acquired leukocyte ratio, PHA-P skin-swelling and induced antibody responses, two opposite INP profiles were found: LEWIS-like (15% of the population) and FISCHER-like (16%) hens. After chronic stress, an increment of about 12% in each polarized INP frequency was found at expenses of a reduction in the number of birds with intermediate responses. Results show that polarized INPs are also a phenomenon occurring in hens. The observed inter-individual variation suggest that, even after a considerable selection process, the population is still well prepared to deal with a variety of immune-neuroendocrine challenges. Stress promoted disruptive effects, leading to a more balanced INPs distribution, which represents a new substrate for challenging situations.Fil: Nazar, Franco Nicolas. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; ArgentinaFil: Estevez, Inma. Centro de Investigación. Neiker - Tecnalia; EspañaFil: Correa, Silvia Graciela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Córdoba. Centro de Investigaciones en Bioquímica Clínica e Inmunología; ArgentinaFil: Marin, Raul Hector. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; Argentin

Unveiling professional development: A critical review of stage models

In research across professions, the development of professional skill traditionally was seen as a process of accumulation of knowledge and skills, promoted by practical experience. More recently, this view has been modified to incorporate skillful know-how that is progressively acquired by passing through developmental stages, such as novice, competent, and expert. The authors of this article critically review contemporary stage models that are typically applied across professions. Their principal critique is that a focus on stages veils or conceals more fundamental aspects of professional skill development. On the basis of their critique, the authors propose an alternative model that builds on the strengths of previous models while seeking to overcome their main limitations. Finally, the authors outline the implications of their alternative model for professional education, workplace practices, and research on professional development

The Heritability of Aptitude and Exceptional Talent Across Different Domains in Adolescents and Young Adults

The origin of individual differences in aptitude, defined as a domain-specific skill within the normal ability range, and talent, defined as a domain specific skill of exceptional quality, is under debate. The nature of the variation in aptitudes and exceptional talents across different domains was investigated in a population based twin sample. Self-report data from 1,685 twin pairs (12–24 years) were analyzed for Music, Arts, Writing, Language, Chess, Mathematics, Sports, Memory, and Knowledge. The influence of shared environment was small for both aptitude and talent. Additive and non-additive genetic effects explained the major part of the substantial familial clustering in the aptitude measures with heritability estimates ranging between .32 and .71. Heritability estimates for talents were higher and ranged between .50 and .92. In general, the genetic architecture for aptitude and talent was similar in men and women. Genetic factors contribute to a large extent to variation in aptitude and talent across different domains of intellectual, creative, and sports abilities

A mathematical and computational review of Hartree-Fock SCF methods in Quantum Chemistry

We present here a review of the fundamental topics of Hartree-Fock theory in Quantum Chemistry. From the molecular Hamiltonian, using and discussing the Born-Oppenheimer approximation, we arrive to the Hartree and Hartree-Fock equations for the electronic problem. Special emphasis is placed in the most relevant mathematical aspects of the theoretical derivation of the final equations, as well as in the results regarding the existence and uniqueness of their solutions. All Hartree-Fock versions with different spin restrictions are systematically extracted from the general case, thus providing a unifying framework. Then, the discretization of the one-electron orbitals space is reviewed and the Roothaan-Hall formalism introduced. This leads to a exposition of the basic underlying concepts related to the construction and selection of Gaussian basis sets, focusing in algorithmic efficiency issues. Finally, we close the review with a section in which the most relevant modern developments (specially those related to the design of linear-scaling methods) are commented and linked to the issues discussed. The whole work is intentionally introductory and rather self-contained, so that it may be useful for non experts that aim to use quantum chemical methods in interdisciplinary applications. Moreover, much material that is found scattered in the literature has been put together here to facilitate comprehension and to serve as a handy reference.Comment: 64 pages, 3 figures, tMPH2e.cls style file, doublesp, mathbbol and subeqn package

Stirring the motivational soup: Within-person latent profiles of motivation in exercise

Background: The purpose of the present study was to use a person-oriented analytical approach to identify latent motivational profiles, based on the different behavioural regulations for exercise, and to examine differences in satisfaction of basic psychological needs (competence, autonomy and relatedness) and exercise behaviour across these motivational profiles. Methods: Two samples, consisting of 1084 and 511 adults respectively, completed exercise-related measures of behavioural regulation and psychological need satisfaction as well as exercise behaviour. Latent profile analyses were used to identify motivational profiles. Results: Six profiles, representing different combinations of regulations for exercise, were found to best represent data in both samples. Some profiles were found in both samples (e.g., low motivation profile, self-determined motivation profile and self-determined with high introjected regulation profile), whereas others were unique to each sample. In line with the Self-Determination Theory, individuals belonging to more self-determined profiles demonstrated higher scores on need satisfaction. Conclusions: The results support the notions of motivation being a multidimensional construct and that people have different, sometimes competing, reasons for engaging in exercise. The benefits of using person-oriented analyses to examine within-person interactions of motivation and different regulations are discussed. © 2017 The Author(s)

Scanpath analysis of expertise and culture in teacher gaze in real-world classrooms

Humans are born to learn by understanding where adults look. This is likely to extend into the classroom, making teacher gaze an important topic for study. Expert teacher gaze has mainly been investigated in the laboratory, and has focused mostly on one cognitive process: teacher attentional (i.e., information-seeking) gaze. No known research has made direct cultural comparisons of teacher gaze or successfully found expert–novice differences outside Western settings. Accordingly, we conducted a real-world study of expert teacher gaze across two cultural settings, exploring communicative (i.e., information-giving) as well as attentional gaze. Forty secondary school teachers wore eye-tracking glasses, with 20 teachers (10 expert; 10 novice) from the UK and 20 teachers (10 expert; 10 novice) from Hong Kong. We used a novel eye-tracking scanpath analysis to ascertain the importance of expertise and culture, individually and as a combination. Attentional teacher scanpaths were significantly more similar within than across expertise and expertise + culture sub-groups; communicative scanpaths were significantly more similar within than across expertise and culture. Detailed analysis suggests that (1) expert teachers refer back to students constantly through focused gaze during both attentional and communicative gaze and that (2) expert teachers in Hong Kong scan students more than experts do in the UK