Personalized modeling for prediction with decision-path models

Deriving predictive models in medicine typically relies on a population approach where a single model is developed from a dataset of individuals. In this paper we describe and evaluate a personalized approach in which we construct a new type of decision tree model called decision-path model that takes advantage of the particular features of a given person of interest. We introduce three personalized methods that derive personalized decision-path models. We compared the performance of these methods to that of Classification And Regression Tree (CART) that is a population decision tree to predict seven different outcomes in five medical datasets. Two of the three personalized methods performed statistically significantly better on area under the ROC curve (AUC) and Brier skill score compared to CART. The personalized approach of learning decision path models is a new approach for predictive modeling that can perform better than a population approach

Carvacrol, (-)-borneol and citral reduce convulsant activity in rodents

Carvacrol, a monoterpenic phenol present in essential oils of the Labiatae family, has been used through the ages as a source of flavor in food and for medicinal purposes. Borneol is a monoterpene found in several species of Artemisia and Dipterocarpaceae, used for anxiety, pain and anesthesia in traditional Chinese. Citral, a mixture of two geometrical isomers (neral and geranial), is one of the most important compounds in some citrus oils and has central nervous system (CNS) properties. The anticonvulsant effect of carvacrol (CARV), (-)-borneol (BOR) and citral (CIT) was investigated in two animal models of epilepsy. Mice were pretreated with CARV, BOR or CIT (50, 100, and 200 mg/kg, i.p.) 30 min before pentylenetetrazole (PTZ) or maximal electroshock (MES) tests, the two most important animal epilepsy tests. The latency for development of convulsions and protection percentage was recorded. In order to investigate the involvement of GABAergic system, flumazenil was utilized. These monoterpenes, CARV in a higher, but not in a lower dose (p < 0.001), BOR and CIT in all doses (p < 0.05 or p < 0.001), were capable of promoting an increase of latency for the development of convulsions induced by PTZ. Additionally, these compounds were efficient in preventing the tonic convulsions (p < 0.05) induced by MES. However, the GABAergic neurotransmitter system might be involved, at least in BOR effects. Henceforth, our results suggest that CARV, BOR and CIT possess anticonvulsant activity effect against PTZ-induced convulsions and MES.Key words: Carvacrol, (-)-borneol, citral, anticonvulsant activit

Mitochondrial echoes of first settlement and genetic continuity in El Salvador

Background: From Paleo-Indian times to recent historical episodes, the Mesoamerican isthmus played an important role in the distribution and patterns of variability all around the double American continent. However, the amount of genetic information currently available on Central American continental populations is very scarce. In order to shed light on the role of Mesoamerica in the peopling of the New World, the present study focuses on the analysis of the mtDNA variation in a population sample from El Salvador. Methodology/Principal Findings: We have carried out DNA sequencing of the entire control region of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genome in 90 individuals from El Salvador. We have also compiled more than 3,985 control region profiles from the public domain and the literature in order to carry out inter-population comparisons. The results reveal a predominant Native American component in this region: by far, the most prevalent mtDNA haplogroup in this country (at ~90%) is A2, in contrast with other North, Meso- and South American populations. Haplogroup A2 shows a star-like phylogeny and is very diverse with a substantial proportion of mtDNAs (45%; sequence range 16090–16365) still unobserved in other American populations. Two different Bayesian approaches used to estimate admixture proportions in El Salvador shows that the majority of the mtDNAs observed come from North America. A preliminary founder analysis indicates that the settlement of El Salvador occurred about 13,400±5,200 Y.B.P.. The founder age of A2 in El Salvador is close to the overall age of A2 in America, which suggests that the colonization of this region occurred within a few thousand years of the initial expansion into the Americas. Conclusions/Significance: As a whole, the results are compatible with the hypothesis that today's A2 variability in El Salvador represents to a large extent the indigenous component of the region. Concordant with this hypothesis is also the observation of a very limited contribution from European and African women (~5%). This implies that the Atlantic slave trade had a very small demographic impact in El Salvador in contrast to its transformation of the gene pool in neighbouring populations from the Caribbean facade

Immunogenic Salivary Proteins of Triatoma infestans: Development of a Recombinant Antigen for the Detection of Low-Level Infestation of Triatomines

Chagas disease, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, is a neglected disease with 20 million people at risk in Latin America. The main control strategies are based on insecticide spraying to eliminate the domestic vectors, the most effective of which is Triatoma infestans. This approach has been very successful in some areas. However, there is a constant risk of recrudescence in once-endemic regions resulting from the re-establishment of T. infestans and the invasion of other triatomine species. To detect low-level infestations of triatomines after insecticide spraying, we have developed a new epidemiological tool based on host responses against salivary antigens of T. infestans. We identified and synthesized a highly immunogenic salivary protein. This protein was used successfully to detect differences in the infestation level of T. infestans of households in Bolivia and the exposure to other triatomine species. The development of such an exposure marker to detect low-level infestation may also be a useful tool for other disease vectors

Non-standard interactions versus non-unitary lepton flavor mixing at a neutrino factory

The impact of heavy mediators on neutrino oscillations is typically described by non-standard four-fermion interactions (NSIs) or non-unitarity (NU). We focus on leptonic dimension-six effective operators which do not produce charged lepton flavor violation. These operators lead to particular correlations among neutrino production, propagation, and detection non-standard effects. We point out that these NSIs and NU phenomenologically lead, in fact, to very similar effects for a neutrino factory, for completely different fundamental reasons. We discuss how the parameters and probabilities are related in this case, and compare the sensitivities. We demonstrate that the NSIs and NU can, in principle, be distinguished for large enough effects at the example of non-standard effects in the $\mu$-$\tau$-sector, which basically corresponds to differentiating between scalars and fermions as heavy mediators as leading order effect. However, we find that a near detector at superbeams could provide very synergistic information, since the correlation between source and matter NSIs is broken for hadronic neutrino production, while NU is a fundamental effect present at any experiment.Comment: 32 pages, 5 figures. Final version published in JHEP. v3: Typo in Eq. (27) correcte

The multiplicity of malaria transmission: a review of entomological inoculation rate measurements and methods across sub-Saharan Africa

Plasmodium falciparum malaria is a serious tropical disease that causes more than one million deaths each year, most of them in Africa. It is transmitted by a range of Anopheles mosquitoes and the risk of disease varies greatly across the continent. The "entomological inoculation rate" is the commonly-used measure of the intensity of malaria transmission, yet the methods used are currently not standardized, nor do they take the ecological, demographic, and socioeconomic differences across populations into account. To better understand the multiplicity of malaria transmission, this study examines the distribution of transmission intensity across sub-Saharan Africa, reviews the range of methods used, and explores ecological parameters in selected locations. It builds on an extensive geo-referenced database and uses geographical information systems to highlight transmission patterns, knowledge gaps, trends and changes in methodologies over time, and key differences between land use, population density, climate, and the main mosquito species. The aim is to improve the methods of measuring malaria transmission, to help develop the way forward so that we can better assess the impact of the large-scale intervention programmes, and rapid demographic and environmental change taking place across Africa

Mesoscale Atmospheric Transport of Ragweed Pollen Allergens from Infected to Uninfected Areas

Allergenic ragweed (Ambrosia spp.) pollen grains, after being released from anthers, can be dispersed by air masses far from their source. However, the action of air temperature,humidity and solar radiation on pollen grains in the atmosphere could impact on the ability of long distance transported (LDT) pollen to maintain allergenic potency. Here, we report that the major allergen of Ambrosia artemisiifolia pollen (Amb a 1) collected in ambient air during episodes of LDT still have immunoreactive properties. The amount of Amb a 1 found in LDT ragweed pollen grains was not constant and varied between episodes. In addition to allergens in pollen sized particles, we detected reactive Amb a 1 in subpollen sized respirable particles. These findings suggest that ragweed pollen grains have the potential to cause allergic reactions, not only in the heavily infested areas but, due to LDT episodes, also in the regions unaffected by ragweed populations