How certain is ‘certain’?: exploring how the English-language media reported the use of calibrated language in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report

This article presents findings from an analysis of English-language media reports following the publication of the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report in September 2013. Focusing on the way they reported the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s use of ‘calibrated’ language, we find that of 1906 articles relating to the issuing of the report only 272 articles (14.27%) convey the use of a deliberate and systematic verbal scale. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s carefully calibrated language was rarely discussed or explicated, but in some instances scientists, political actors or journalists would attempt to contextualise or elaborate on the reported findings by using analogies to other scientific principles or examples of taking action despite uncertainty. We consider those analogies in terms of their efficacy in communicating (un)certainty

Modelling the public health impact of male circumcision for HIV prevention in high prevalence areas in Africa

Background: Recent clinical trials in Africa, in combination with several observational epidemiological studies, have provided evidence that male circumcision can reduce HIV female-to-male transmission risk by 60% or more. However, the public health impact of large-scale male circumcision programs for HIV prevention is unclear. Methods: Two mathematical models were examined to explore this issue: a random mixing model and a compartmental model that distinguishes risk groups associated with sex work. In the compartmental model, two scenarios were developed, one calculating HIV transmission and prevalence in a context similar to the country of Botswana, and one similar to Nyanza Province, in western Kenya. Results: In both models, male circumcision programs resulted in large and sustained declines in HIV prevalence over time among both men and women. Men benefited somewhat more than women, but prevalence among women was also reduced substantially. With 80% male circumcision uptake, the reductions in prevalence ranged from 45% to 67% in the two "countries", and with 50% uptake, from 25% to 41%. It would take over a decade for the intervention to reach its full effect. Conclusion: Large-scale uptake of male circumcision services in African countries with high HIV prevalence, and where male circumcision is not now routinely practised, could lead to substantial reductions in HIV transmission and prevalence over time among both men and women

Quantum Gravity in Everyday Life: General Relativity as an Effective Field Theory

This article is meant as a summary and introduction to the ideas of effective field theory as applied to gravitational systems. Contents: 1. Introduction 2. Effective Field Theories 3. Low-Energy Quantum Gravity 4. Explicit Quantum Calculations 5. ConclusionsComment: 56 pages, 2 figures, JHEP style, Invited review to appear in Living Reviews of Relativit

A metabolite-derived protein modification integrates glycolysis with KEAP1-NRF2 signalling.

Mechanisms that integrate the metabolic state of a cell with regulatory pathways are necessary to maintain cellular homeostasis. Endogenous, intrinsically reactive metabolites can form functional, covalent modifications on proteins without the aid of enzymes1,2, and regulate cellular functions such as metabolism3-5 and transcription6. An important 'sensor' protein that captures specific metabolic information and transforms it into an appropriate response is KEAP1, which contains reactive cysteine residues that collectively act as an electrophile sensor tuned to respond to reactive species resulting from endogenous and xenobiotic molecules. Covalent modification of KEAP1 results in reduced ubiquitination and the accumulation of NRF27,8, which then initiates the transcription of cytoprotective genes at antioxidant-response element loci. Here we identify a small-molecule inhibitor of the glycolytic enzyme PGK1, and reveal a direct link between glycolysis and NRF2 signalling. Inhibition of PGK1 results in accumulation of the reactive metabolite methylglyoxal, which selectively modifies KEAP1 to form a methylimidazole crosslink between proximal cysteine and arginine residues (MICA). This posttranslational modification results in the dimerization of KEAP1, the accumulation of NRF2 and activation of the NRF2 transcriptional program. These results demonstrate the existence of direct inter-pathway communication between glycolysis and the KEAP1-NRF2 transcriptional axis, provide insight into the metabolic regulation of the cellular stress response, and suggest a therapeutic strategy for controlling the cytoprotective antioxidant response in several human diseases

Complexity within an oil palm monoculture: The effects of habitat variability and rainfall on adult dragonfly (Odonata) communities

Recent expansion of oil palm agriculture has resulted in loss of forest habitat and forest-dependent species. However, large numbers of species – particularly insects – can persist within plantations. This study focuses on Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies): a charismatic indicator taxon, and a potentially valuable pest control agent. We surveyed adult Odonata populations biannually over three years within an industrial oil palm plantation in Sumatra, Indonesia. We assessed the effects of rainfall (including an El Niño Southern Oscillation-associated drought), the role of roadside ditches, and the importance of understory vegetation on Odonata populations. To assess the impacts of vegetation we took advantage of a long-term vegetation management experiment that is part of the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function in Tropical Agriculture (BEFTA) Programme. We found 41 Odonata species, and communities varied between plantation core and roadside edge microhabitats, and between seasons. Abundance was significantly related to rainfall levels four months before surveys, probably indicating the importance of high water levels in roadside ditches for successful larval development. We found no significant effect of the BEFTA understory vegetation treatments on Odonata abundance, and only limited effects on community composition, suggesting that local understory vegetation structure plays a relatively unimportant role in determining communities. Our findings highlight that there are large numbers of Odonata species present within oil palm plantations, and suggest that their abundance could potentially be increased by maintaining or establishing waterbodies. As Odonata are predators, this could bring pest control benefits, in addition to enhancing biodiversity within intensive agricultural landscapes.This work was funded by The Isaac Newton Trust Cambridge, Golden Agri Resources, and the Natural Environment Research Council [grant number NE/P00458X/1]

Primary care and health inequality : Difference-in-difference study comparing England and Ontario

BACKGROUND: It is not known whether equity-oriented primary care investment that seeks to scale up the delivery of effective care in disadvantaged communities can reduce health inequality within high-income settings that have pre-existing universal primary care systems. We provide some non-randomised controlled evidence by comparing health inequality trends between two similar jurisdictions-one of which implemented equity-oriented primary care investment in the mid-to-late 2000s as part of a cross-government strategy for reducing health inequality (England), and one which invested in primary care without any explicit equity objective (Ontario, Canada). METHODS: We analysed whole-population data on 32,482 neighbourhoods (with mean population size of approximately 1,500 people) in England, and 18,961 neighbourhoods (with mean population size of approximately 700 people) in Ontario. We examined trends in mortality amenable to healthcare by decile groups of neighbourhood deprivation within each jurisdiction. We used linear models to estimate absolute and relative gaps in amenable mortality between most and least deprived groups, considering the gradient between these extremes, and evaluated difference-in-difference comparisons between the two jurisdictions. RESULTS: Inequality trends were comparable in both jurisdictions from 2004-6 but diverged from 2007-11. Compared with Ontario, the absolute gap in amenable mortality in England fell between 2004-6 and 2007-11 by 19.8 per 100,000 population (95% CI: 4.8 to 34.9); and the relative gap in amenable mortality fell by 10 percentage points (95% CI: 1 to 19). The biggest divergence occurred in the most deprived decile group of neighbourhoods. DISCUSSION: In comparison to Ontario, England succeeded in reducing absolute socioeconomic gaps in mortality amenable to healthcare from 2007 to 2011, and preventing them from growing in relative terms. Equity-oriented primary care reform in England in the mid-to-late 2000s may have helped to reduce socioeconomic inequality in health, though other explanations for this divergence are possible and further research is needed on the specific causal mechanisms

Rapid increases in obesity in Jamaica, compared to Nigeria and the United States

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Weight gain in adulthood is now common in many populations, ranging from modest gains in developing countries to a substantial percentage of body weight in some Western societies. To examine the rate of change across the spectrum of low to high-income countries we compared rates of weight change in samples drawn from three countries, Nigeria, Jamaica and the United States.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Population samples from Nigeria (n = 1,242), Jamaica (n = 1,409), and the US (n = 809) were selected during the period 1995–1999 in adults over the age of 19; participation rates in the original survey were 96%, 60%, and 60%, respectively. Weight in (kg) was measured on 3 different occasions, ending in 2005. Multi-level regression models were used to estimate weight change over time and pattern-mixture models were applied to assess the potential effect of missing data on estimates of the model parameters.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The unadjusted weight gain rate (standard error) was 0.34(0.06), 1.26(0.12), 0.34(0.19) kg/year among men and 0.43(0.06), 1.28(0.10), 0.40(0.15) kg/year among women in Nigeria, Jamaica, US, respectively. Regression-adjusted weight change rates were significantly different across country, sex, and baseline BMI. Adjusted weight gain in Nigeria, Jamaica and US was 0.31(0.05), 1.37(.04), and 0.52(0.05) kg/year respectively. Women in Nigeria and the US had higher weight gains than men, with the converse observed among Jamaicans. The obese experienced weight loss across all three samples, whereas the normal weight (BMI < 25) had significant weight gains. Missing data patterns had an effect on the rates of weight change.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Weight change in sample cohorts from a middle-income country was greater than in cohorts from either of the low- or high-income countries. The steep trajectory of weight gain in Jamaica, relative to Nigeria and the US, is most likely attributable to the accelerating effects of the cultural and behavioral shifts which have come to bear on transitional societies.</p

Managing Oil Palm Plantations More Sustainably: Large-Scale Experiments Within the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function in Tropical Agriculture (BEFTA) Programme

Conversion of tropical forest to agriculture results in reduced habitat heterogeneity, and associated declines in biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Management strategies to increase biodiversity in agricultural landscapes have therefore often focused on increasing habitat complexity; however, the large-scale, long-term ecological experiments that are needed to test the effects of these strategies are rare in tropical systems. Oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.)—one of the most widespread and important tropical crops—offers substantial potential for developing wildlife-friendly management strategies because of its long rotation cycles and tree-like structure. Although there is awareness of the need to increase sustainability, practical options for how best to manage oil palm plantations, for benefits to both the environment and crop productivity, have received little research attention. In this paper we introduce the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function in Tropical Agriculture (BEFTA) Programme: a long-term research collaboration between academia and industry in Sumatra, Indonesia. The BEFTA Programme aims to better understand the oil palm agroecosystem and test sustainability strategies. We hypothesise that adjustments to oil palm management could increase structural complexity, stabilize microclimate, and reduce reliance on chemical inputs, thereby helping to improve levels of biodiversity and ecosystem functions. The Programme has established four major components: (1) assessing variability within the plantation under business-as-usual conditions; (2) the BEFTA Understory Vegetation Project, which tests the effects of varying herbicide regimes; (3) the Riparian Ecosystem Restoration in Tropical Agriculture (RERTA) Project, which tests strategies for restoring riparian habitat; and (4) support for additional collaborative projects within the Programme landscape. Across all projects, we are measuring environmental conditions, biodiversity, and ecosystem functions. We also measure oil palm yield and production costs, in order to assess whether suggested sustainability strategies are feasible from an agronomic perspective. Early results show that oil palm plantation habitat is more variable than might be expected from a monoculture crop, and that everyday vegetation management decisions have significant impacts on habitat structure. The BEFTA Programme highlights the value of large-scale collaborative projects for understanding tropical agricultural systems, and offers a highly valuable experimental set-up for improving our understanding of practices to manage oil palm more sustainably.This work was funded by The Isaac Newton Trust Cambridge, Golden Agri Resources, ICOPE (the International Conference on Oil Palm and the Environment), and the Natural Environment Research Council [grant number NE/P00458X/1]

Resilience of ecological functions to drought in an oil palm agroecosystem

Abstract Oil palm is a major habitat in the tropics. It is highly productive and contributes substantially to the economies of producing countries, but its expansion has caused widespread deforestation, with negative consequences for biodiversity. Such biodiversity losses may have substantial impacts on ecosystem functions within oil palm and resilience of functions to changing rainfall patterns, with impacts on yield. However, although the direct effects of water deficit on yield have been studied, little work has investigated ecosystem processes within plantations or the resilience of functions to changing rainfall. We conducted ecosystem function experiments within mature oil palm at the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function in Tropical Agriculture (BEFTA) Programme site in Sumatra, Indonesia. We measured rates of leaf litter decomposition, seed removal, mealworm predation, and herbivory at multiple time points spanning the 2015–2016 El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event that caused widespread drought within Southeast Asia. We found that mealworm predation, seed removal, and decomposition rates were high, whilst herbivory levels were low, indicating a healthy ecosystem with high levels of pest control and organic matter breakdown. Exclusion tests showed that the presence of invertebrates was associated with higher levels of seed removal and decomposition and the presence of vertebrates with higher predation. All functions were relatively robust to changes in rainfall. Yet, whilst seed removal and herbivory did not alter with rainfall, decomposition and predation showed more complex effects, with levels of both processes increasing with current rainfall levels when rainfall in preceding time periods was low. This suggests that both processes are resilient to change and able to recover following drought. Our results indicate that the ecosystem processes measured within oil palm plantations are healthy and resilient to changing rainfall patterns. This is hopeful and suggests that the crop may be fairly robust to future changes in precipitation.Isaac Newton Trust Cambridge Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology Research Institut

Mapping the decision pathways of acute infection management in secondary care among UK medical physicians: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The inappropriate use of antimicrobials drives antimicrobial resistance. We conducted a study to map physician decision-making processes for acute infection management in secondary care to identify potential targets for quality improvement interventions. METHODS: Physicians newly qualified to consultant level participated in semi-structured interviews. Interviews were audio recorded and transcribed verbatim for analysis using NVIVO11.0 software. Grounded theory methodology was applied. Analytical categories were created using constant comparison approach to the data and participants were recruited to the study until thematic saturation was reached. RESULTS: Twenty physicians were interviewed. The decision pathway for the management of acute infections follows a Bayesian-like step-wise approach, with information processed and systematically added to prior assumptions to guide management. The main emerging themes identified as determinants of the decision-making of individual physicians were (1) perceptions of providing 'optimal' care for the patient with infection by providing rapid and often intravenous therapy; (2) perceptions that stopping/de-escalating therapy was a senior doctor decision with junior trainees not expected to contribute; and (3) expectation of interactions with local guidelines and microbiology service advice. Feedback on review of junior doctor prescribing decisions was often lacking, causing frustration and confusion on appropriate practice within this cohort. CONCLUSION: Interventions to improve infection management must incorporate mechanisms to promote distribution of responsibility for decisions made. The disparity between expectations of prescribers to start but not review/stop therapy must be urgently addressed with mechanisms to improve communication and feedback to junior prescribers to facilitate their continued development as prudent antimicrobial prescribers