Seasonality and stochastic trends in German consumption and income, 1960.1- 1987.4

The quarterly time series of German consumption and income are analyzed with respect to seasonality and stochastic trends. It emerges that both variables can be appropriately described by a periodically integrated autoregression. An implication is that the stochastic trend and the seasonal fluctuations are not independent for each of the univariate series. In order to test for cointegration across the two series, we propose several methods which take account of the relationship between seasons and trends in the univariate series. Some of these methods boil down to extracting the stochastic trend from the univariate series in a first step and to relating these trends using cointegration techniques in a second step. Another method is an extension of the Johansen cointegration testing approach to periodic vector autoregressions. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the empirical performance of the various methods. The main empirical result is that only in the first quarter there seems to be cointegration between German consumption and income

Dynamic modeling of mean-reverting spreads for statistical arbitrage

Statistical arbitrage strategies, such as pairs trading and its generalizations, rely on the construction of mean-reverting spreads enjoying a certain degree of predictability. Gaussian linear state-space processes have recently been proposed as a model for such spreads under the assumption that the observed process is a noisy realization of some hidden states. Real-time estimation of the unobserved spread process can reveal temporary market inefficiencies which can then be exploited to generate excess returns. Building on previous work, we embrace the state-space framework for modeling spread processes and extend this methodology along three different directions. First, we introduce time-dependency in the model parameters, which allows for quick adaptation to changes in the data generating process. Second, we provide an on-line estimation algorithm that can be constantly run in real-time. Being computationally fast, the algorithm is particularly suitable for building aggressive trading strategies based on high-frequency data and may be used as a monitoring device for mean-reversion. Finally, our framework naturally provides informative uncertainty measures of all the estimated parameters. Experimental results based on Monte Carlo simulations and historical equity data are discussed, including a co-integration relationship involving two exchange-traded funds.Comment: 34 pages, 6 figures. Submitte

Change in Composition of the Anopheles Gambiae Complex and its Possible Implications for the Transmission of Malaria and Lymphatic Filariasis in North-Eastern Tanzania.

A dramatic decline in the incidence of malaria due to Plasmodium falciparum infection in coastal East Africa has recently been reported to be paralleled (or even preceded) by an equally dramatic decline in malaria vector density, despite absence of organized vector control. As part of investigations into possible causes for the change in vector population density, the present study analysed the Anopheles gambiae s.l. sibling species composition in north-eastern Tanzania. The study was in two parts. The first compared current species complex composition in freshly caught An. gambiae s.l. complex from three villages to the composition reported from previous studies carried out 2-4 decades ago in the same villages. The second took advantage of a sample of archived dried An. gambiae s.l. complex specimens collected regularly from a fourth study village since 2005. Both fresh and archived dried specimens were identified to sibling species of the An. gambiae s.l. complex by PCR. The same specimens were moreover examined for Plasmodium falciparum and Wuchereria bancrofti infection by PCR. As in earlier studies, An. gambiae s.s., Anopheles merus and Anopheles arabiensis were identified as sibling species found in the area. However, both study parts indicated a marked change in sibling species composition over time. From being by far the most abundant in the past An. gambiae s.s. was now the most rare, whereas An. arabiensis had changed from being the most rare to the most common. P. falciparum infection was rarely detected in the examined specimens (and only in An. arabiensis) whereas W. bancrofti infection was prevalent and detected in all three sibling species. The study indicates that a major shift in An. gambiae s.l. sibling species composition has taken place in the study area in recent years. Combined with the earlier reported decline in overall malaria vector density, the study suggests that this decline has been most marked for An. gambiae s.s., and least for An. arabiensis, leading to current predominance of the latter. Due to differences in biology and vectorial capacity of the An. gambiae s.l. complex the change in sibling species composition will have important implications for the epidemiology and control of malaria and lymphatic filariasis in the study area

Exercise training in pediatric patients with end-stage renal disease

The objective of this study was to determine the feasibility and efficacy of an exercise training program to improve exercise capacity and fatigue level in pediatric patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Twenty children on dialysis intended to perform a 12-week graded community-based exercise program. Exercise capacity and fatigue level were studied; muscle force and health-related quality of life were secondary outcomes. All outcomes were measured at baseline (T = 0) and after intervention (T = 1). Fourteen of the 20 patients (70%) either did not start the program or did not complete the program. Of these patients, seven did not complete or even start the exercise program because of a combination of lack of time and motivational problems. Six patients were not able to continue the program or were unable to do the follow-up measurements because of medical problems. Exercise capacity and muscle strength was higher after the exercise program in the children who completed the training. In conclusion, exercise training is difficult to perform in children with ESRD and is not always feasible in real-life situations for many children with ESRD

Machine Learning Techniques for the Detection of Shockable Rhythms in Automated External Defibrillators

Early recognition of ventricular fibrillation (VF) and electrical therapy are key for the survivalof out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients treated with automated external defibrilla-tors (AED). AED algorithms for VF-detection are customarily assessed using Holter record-ings from public electrocardiogram (ECG) databases, which may be different from the ECGseen during OHCA events. This study evaluates VF-detection using data from both OHCApatients and public Holter recordings. ECG-segments of 4-s and 8-s duration were ana-lyzed. For each segment 30 features were computed and fed to state of the art machinelearning (ML) algorithms. ML-algorithms with built-in feature selection capabilities wereused to determine the optimal feature subsets for both databases. Patient-wise bootstraptechniques were used to evaluate algorithm performance in terms of sensitivity (Se), speci-ficity (Sp) and balanced error rate (BER). Performance was significantly better for publicdata with a mean Se of 96.6%, Sp of 98.8% and BER 2.2% compared to a mean Se of94.7%, Sp of 96.5% and BER 4.4% for OHCA data. OHCA data required two times morefeatures than the data from public databases for an accurate detection (6 vs 3). No signifi-cant differences in performance were found for different segment lengths, the BER differ-ences were below 0.5-points in all cases. Our results show that VF-detection is morechallenging for OHCA data than for data from public databases, and that accurate VF-detection is possible with segments as short as 4-s

Macrophages Are Required for Dendritic Cell Uptake of Respiratory Syncytial Virus from an Infected Epithelium

We have previously shown that the respiratory syncytial virus [RSV] can productively infect monocyte derived dendritic cells [MoDC] and remain dormant within the same cells for prolonged periods. It is therefore possible that infected dendritic cells act as a reservoir within the airways of individuals between annual epidemics. In the present study we explored the possibility that sub-epithelial DCs can be infected with RSV from differentiated bronchial epithelium and that in turn RSV from DCs can infect the epithelium. A dual co-culture model was established in which a differentiated primary airway epithelium on an Air Liquid Interface (ALI) was cultured on a transwell insert and MoDCs were subsequently added to the basolateral membrane of the insert. Further experiments were undertaken using a triple co-culture model in which in which macrophages were added to the apical surface of the differentiated epithelium. A modified RSV [rr-RSV] expressing a red fluorescent protein marker of replication was used to infect either the MoDCs or the differentiated epithelium and infection of the reciprocal cell type was assessed using confocal microscopy. Our data shows that primary epithelium became infected when rr-RSV infected MoDCs were introduced onto the basal surface of the transwell insert. MoDCs located beneath the epithelium did not become infected with virus from infected epithelial cells in the dual co-culture model. However when macrophages were present on the apical surface of the primary epithelium infection of the basal MoDCs occurred. Our data suggests that RSV infected dendritic cells readily transmit infection to epithelial cells even when they are located beneath the basal layer. However macrophages appear to be necessary for the transmission of infection from epithelial cells to basal dendritic cells

Circumstellar disks and planets. Science cases for next-generation optical/infrared long-baseline interferometers

We present a review of the interplay between the evolution of circumstellar disks and the formation of planets, both from the perspective of theoretical models and dedicated observations. Based on this, we identify and discuss fundamental questions concerning the formation and evolution of circumstellar disks and planets which can be addressed in the near future with optical and infrared long-baseline interferometers. Furthermore, the importance of complementary observations with long-baseline (sub)millimeter interferometers and high-sensitivity infrared observatories is outlined.Comment: 83 pages; Accepted for publication in "Astronomy and Astrophysics Review"; The final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.co

Platelet activating factor stimulates arachidonic acid release in differentiated keratinocytes via arachidonyl non-selective phospholipase A2

Platelet activating factor (PAF, 1-O-alkyl-2-acetyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine) is known to be present in excess in psoriatic skin, but its exact role is uncertain. In the present study we demonstrate for the first time the role of group VI PLA2 in PAF-induced arachidonic acid release in highly differentiated human keratinocytes. The group IVα PLA2 also participates in the release, while secretory PLA2s play a minor role. Two anti-inflammatory synthetic fatty acids, tetradecylthioacetic acid and tetradecylselenoacetic acid, are shown to interfere with signalling events upstream of group IVα PLA2 activation. In summary, our major novel finding is the involvement of the arachidonyl non-selective group VI PLA2 in PAF-induced inflammatory responses

Variation in CHI3LI in Relation to Type 2 Diabetes and Related Quantitative Traits

CHI3LI encoding the inflammatory glycoprotein YKL-40 is located on chromosome 1q32.1. YKL-40 is involved in inflammatory processes and patients with Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) have elevated circulating YKL-40 levels which correlate with their level of insulin resistance. Interestingly, it has been reported that rs10399931 (-329 G/A) of CHI3LI contributes to the inter-individual plasma YKL-40 levels in patients with sarcoidosis, and that rs4950928 (-131 C/G) is a susceptibility polymorphism for asthma and a decline in lung function. We hypothesized that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) or haplotypes thereof the CHI3LI locus might influence risk of T2D. The aim of the present study was to investigate the putative association between SNPs and haplotype blocks of CHI3LI and T2D and T2D related quantitative traits.Eleven SNPs of CHI3LI were genotyped in 6514 individuals from the Inter99 cohort and 2924 individuals from the outpatient clinic at Steno Diabetes Center. In cas-control studies a total of 2345 T2D patients and 5302 individuals with a normal glucose tolerance test were examined. We found no association between rs10399931 (OR, 0.98 (CI, 0.88-1.10), p = 0.76), rs4950928 (0.98 (0.87-1.10), p = 0.68) or any of the other SNPs with T2D. Similarly, we found no significant association between any of the 11 tgSNPs and T2D related quantitative traits, all p>0.14. None of the identified haplotype blocks of CHI3LI showed any association with T2D, all p>0.16.None of the examined SNPs or haplotype blocks of CHI3LI showed any association with T2D or T2D related quantitative traits. Estimates of insulin resistance and dysregulated glucose homeostasis in T2D do not seem to be accounted for by the examined variations of CHI3LI