Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Transmission in the United States Before Versus After Relaxation of Statewide Social Distancing Measures

BACKGROUND: Weeks after issuing social distancing orders to suppress severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and reduce growth in cases of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), all U.S. states and the District of Columbia partially or fully relaxed these measures. METHODS: We identified all statewide social distancing measures that were implemented and/or relaxed in the U.S. between March 10-July 15, 2020, triangulating data from state government and third-party sources. Using segmented linear regression, we estimated the extent to which relaxation of social distancing affected epidemic control, as indicated by the time-varying, state-specific effective reproduction number (Rt). RESULTS: In the eight weeks prior to relaxation, mean Rt declined by 0.012 units per day (95% CI, -0.013 to -0.012), and 46/51 jurisdictions achieved Rt < 1.0 by the date of relaxation. After relaxation of social distancing, Rt reversed course and began increasing by 0.007 units per day (95% CI, 0.006-0.007), reaching a mean Rt of 1.16 eight weeks later, with only 9/51 jurisdictions maintaining Rt <1.0. Parallel models showed similar reversals in the growth of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Indicators often used to motivate relaxation at the time of relaxation (e.g. test positivity rate <5%) predicted greater post-relaxation epidemic growth. CONCLUSIONS: We detected an immediate and significant reversal in SARS-CoV-2 epidemic suppression after relaxation of social distancing measures across the U.S. Premature relaxation of social distancing measures undermined the country's ability to control the disease burden associated with COVID-19

Passive parametric macromodeling by using Sylvester state-space realizations

A judicious choice of the state-space realization is required in order to account for the assumed smoothness of the state-space matrices with respect to the design parameters. The direct parameterization of poles and residues may be not appropriate, due to their possible non-smooth behavior with respect to design parameters. This is avoided in the proposed technique, by converting the pole-residue description to a Sylvester description which is computed for each root macromodel. This technique is used in combination with suitable parameterizing schemes for interpolating a set of state-space matrices, and hence the poles and residues indirectly, in order to build accurate parametric macromodels. The key features of the present approach are first the choice of a proper pivot matrix and second, finding a well-conditioned solution of a Sylvester equation. Stability and passivity are guaranteed by construction over the design space of interest. Pertinent numerical examples validate the proposed Sylvester technique for parametric macromodeling

How self-organization can guide evolution

Self-organization and natural selection are fundamental forces that shape the natural world. Substantial progress in understanding how these forces interact has been made through the study of abstract models. Further progress may be made by identifying a model system in which the interaction between self-organization and selection can be investigated empirically. To this end, we investigate how the self-organizing thermoregulatory huddling behaviours displayed by many species of mammals might influence natural selection of the genetic components of metabolism. By applying a simple evolutionary algorithm to a wellestablished model of the interactions between environmental, morphological, physiological and behavioural components of thermoregulation, we arrive at a clear, but counterintuitive, prediction: rodents that are able to huddle together in cold environments should evolve a lower thermal conductance at a faster rate than animals reared in isolation. The model therefore explains how evolution can be accelerated as a consequence of relaxed selection, and it predicts how the effect may be exaggerated by an increase in the litter size, i.e. by an increase in the capacity to use huddling behaviours for thermoregulation. Confirmation of these predictions in future experiments with rodents would constitute strong evidence of a mechanism by which self-organization can guide natural selection

Effect of height and colour of bee bricks on nesting occupancy of bees and wasps in SW England

This is the final version. Available on open access from Conservation Evidence via the DOI in this recordBee bricks are a novel solitary-bee nesting habitat made from reclaimed concrete, designed to be built into walls to provide nest sites in urban areas. We tested if cavity-nesting bees and wasps used bee bricks, and if they showed any preference for nesting in bricks of different colours or at different heights. We carried out surveys of solitary bees in 15 private urban gardens and eight rural public gardens, where the bee bricks were then placed for two years (2016-2017). Bee bricks were placed on structures that were either 1 m in height with 4 bricks (red, yellow, white and wooden control) or with three platforms where white bricks were placed at 0 m, 0.6 m or 1.0 m above the ground. The number of occupied nest holes was counted at the end of each summer. Nesting holes that were capped with mud were more common than those capped with chewed or cut leaves. The average % of holes capped with either mud or chewed leaf was greatest in red bricks and lowest in wooden controls. Only one brick out of 39 placed at ground level had capped holes, although the difference in the % of holes capped between heights was not statistically significant. Cavity-nesting bees and wasps use solitary-bee bricks for nests, but population level impacts are still untested.University of Exete

Associations of vitamin D pathway genes with circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin-D, 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin-D, and prostate cancer:a nested case-control study

Vitamin D pathway single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are potentially useful proxies for investigating whether circulating vitamin D metabolites [total 25-hydroxyvitamin-D, 25(OH)D; 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin, 1,25(OH)2D] are causally related to prostate cancer. We investigated associations of sixteen SNPs across seven genes with prostate-specific antigen-detected prostate cancer

The importance of the weak: Interaction modifiers in artificial spin ices

The modification of geometry and interactions in two-dimensional magnetic nanosystems has enabled a range of studies addressing the magnetic order, collective low-energy dynamics, and emergent magnetic properties, in e.g. artificial spin ice structures. The common denominator of all these investigations is the use of Ising-like mesospins as building blocks, in the form of elongated magnetic islands. Here we introduce a new approach: single interaction modifiers, using slave-mesospins in the form of discs, within which the mesospin is free to rotate in the disc plane. We show that by placing these on the vertices of square artificial spin ice arrays and varying their diameter, it is possible to tailor the strength and the ratio of the interaction energies. We demonstrate the existence of degenerate ice-rule obeying states in square artificial spin ice structures, enabling the exploration of thermal dynamics in a spin liquid manifold. Furthermore, we even observe the emergence of flux lattices on larger length-scales, when the energy landscape of the vertices is reversed. The work highlights the potential of a design strategy for two-dimensional magnetic nano-architectures, through which mixed dimensionality of mesospins can be used to promote thermally emergent mesoscale magnetic states.Comment: 17 pages, including methods, 4 figures. Supplementary information contains 16 pages and 15 figure

Extensive degeneracy, Coulomb phase and magnetic monopoles in an artificial realization of the square ice model

Artificial spin ice systems have been introduced as a possible mean to investigate frustration effects in a well-controlled manner by fabricating lithographically-patterned two-dimensional arrangements of interacting magnetic nanostructures. This approach offers the opportunity to visualize unconventional states of matter, directly in real space, and triggered a wealth of studies at the frontier between nanomagnetism, statistical thermodynamics and condensed matter physics. Despite the strong efforts made these last ten years to provide an artificial realization of the celebrated square ice model, no simple geometry based on arrays of nanomagnets succeeded to capture the macroscopically degenerate ground state manifold of the corresponding model. Instead, in all works reported so far, square lattices of nanomagnets are characterized by a magnetically ordered ground state consisting of local flux-closure configurations with alternating chirality. Here, we show experimentally and theoretically, that all the characteristics of the square ice model can be observed if the artificial square lattice is properly designed. The spin configurations we image after demagnetizing our arrays reveal unambiguous signatures of an algebraic spin liquid state characterized by the presence of pinch points in the associated magnetic structure factor. Local excitations, i.e. classical analogues of magnetic monopoles, are found to be free to evolve in a massively degenerated, divergence-free vacuum. We thus provide the first lab-on-chip platform allowing the investigation of collective phenomena, including Coulomb phases and ice-like physics.Comment: 26 pages, 10 figure