How Strong Do Global Commodity Prices Influence Domestic Food Prices in Developing Countries? A Global Price Transmission and Vulnerability Mapping Analysis

This paper analyzes the transmission from global commodity to domestic food prices for a large set of countries. First, a theoretical model is developed to explain price transmission for different trade regimes. Drawing from the competitive storage model under rational expectations, it is shown that domestic prices can respond instantaneously to global prices even if no trade takes place but future trade is expected. Using a global database on food prices, we construct national and international grain price indices. With an autoregressive distributed lag model, we empirically detect countries in which food prices are influenced by global commodity prices, including futures prices. Mapping transmission elasticities with the size of the population below the poverty line which spends typically a large share of its income on food, we are able to estimate the size of vulnerable population. Our empirical analysis reveals that 90 percent of the global poor (income below 1.25$/day) live in countries where domestic food prices respond to international prices - but the extent of transmission varies substantially. For 360 million poor people, international prices transmit to their country at rates of 30 percent or higher within three months

Perturbative quantum gravity with the Immirzi parameter

We study perturbative quantum gravity in the first-order tetrad formalism. The lowest order action corresponds to Einstein-Cartan plus a parity-odd term, and is known in the literature as the Holst action. The coupling constant of the parity-odd term can be identified with the Immirzi parameter of loop quantum gravity. We compute the quantum effective action in the one-loop expansion. As in the metric second-order formulation, we find that in the case of pure gravity the theory is on-shell finite, and the running of Newton's constant and the Immirzi parameter is inessential. In the presence of fermions, the situation changes in two fundamental aspects. First, non-renormalizable logarithmic divergences appear, as usual. Second, the Immirzi parameter becomes a priori observable, and we find that it is renormalized by a four-fermion interaction generated by radiative corrections. We compute its beta function and discuss possible implications. The sign of the beta function depends on whether the Immirzi parameter is larger or smaller than one in absolute value, and the values plus or minus one are UV fixed-points (we work in Euclidean signature). Finally, we find that the Holst action is stable with respect to radiative corrections in the case of minimal coupling, up to higher order non-renormalizable interactions.Comment: v2 minor amendment

Dynamic modeling of mean-reverting spreads for statistical arbitrage

Statistical arbitrage strategies, such as pairs trading and its generalizations, rely on the construction of mean-reverting spreads enjoying a certain degree of predictability. Gaussian linear state-space processes have recently been proposed as a model for such spreads under the assumption that the observed process is a noisy realization of some hidden states. Real-time estimation of the unobserved spread process can reveal temporary market inefficiencies which can then be exploited to generate excess returns. Building on previous work, we embrace the state-space framework for modeling spread processes and extend this methodology along three different directions. First, we introduce time-dependency in the model parameters, which allows for quick adaptation to changes in the data generating process. Second, we provide an on-line estimation algorithm that can be constantly run in real-time. Being computationally fast, the algorithm is particularly suitable for building aggressive trading strategies based on high-frequency data and may be used as a monitoring device for mean-reversion. Finally, our framework naturally provides informative uncertainty measures of all the estimated parameters. Experimental results based on Monte Carlo simulations and historical equity data are discussed, including a co-integration relationship involving two exchange-traded funds.Comment: 34 pages, 6 figures. Submitte

What explains Cambodia’s success in reducing child stunting-2000-2014?

In many developing countries, high levels of child undernutrition persist alongside rapid economic growth. There is considerable interest in the study of countries that have made rapid progress in child nutrition to uncover the driving forces behind these improvements. Cambodia is often cited as a success case having reduced the incidence of child stunting from 51% to 34% over the period 2000 to 2014. To what extent is this success driven by improvements in the underlying determinants of nutrition, such as wealth and education, (“covariate effects”) and to what extent by changes in the strengths of association between these determinants and nutrition outcomes (“coefficient effects”)? Using determinants derived from the widely-applied UNICEF framework for the analysis of child nutrition and data from four Demographic and Health Surveys datasets, we apply quantile regression based decomposition methods to quantify the covariate and coefficient effect contributions to this improvement in child nutrition. The method used in the study allows the covariate and coefficient effects to vary across the entire distribution of child nutrition outcomes. There are important differences in the drivers of improvements in child nutrition between severely stunted and moderately stunted children and between rural and urban areas. The translation of improvements in household endowments, characteristics and practices into improvements in child nutrition (the coefficient effects) may be influenced by macroeconomic shocks or other events such as natural calamities or civil disturbance and may vary substantially over different time periods. Our analysis also highlights the need to explicitly examine the contribution of targeted child health and nutrition interventions to improvements in child nutrition in developing countries

Nature reserves as catalysts for landscape change

Scientists have called repeatedly for a broader conservation agenda that emphasizes not only protected areas but also the landscapes in which those areas are embedded. We describe key advances in the science and practice of engaging private landowners in biodiversity conservation and propose a conceptual model for integrating conservation management on reserves and privately owned lands. The overall goal of our model is to blur the distinction between land management on reserves and the surrounding landscapes in a way that fosters widespread implementation of conservation practices. Reserves assume a new role as natural laboratories where alternative land-use practices, designed to achieve conservation objectives, can be explored. We articulate the details of the model using a case study from the North American tallgrass prairie ecoregion.Peer reviewedNatural Resource Ecology and Managemen

Failure of Working Memory Training to Enhance Cognition or Intelligence

Fluid intelligence is important for successful functioning in the modern world, but much evidence suggests that fluid intelligence is largely immutable after childhood. Recently, however, researchers have reported gains in fluid intelligence after multiple sessions of adaptive working memory training in adults. The current study attempted to replicate and expand those results by administering a broad assessment of cognitive abilities and personality traits to young adults who underwent 20 sessions of an adaptive dual n-back working memory training program and comparing their post-training performance on those tests to a matched set of young adults who underwent 20 sessions of an adaptive attentional tracking program. Pre- and post-training measurements of fluid intelligence, standardized intelligence tests, speed of processing, reading skills, and other tests of working memory were assessed. Both training groups exhibited substantial and specific improvements on the trained tasks that persisted for at least 6 months post-training, but no transfer of improvement was observed to any of the non-trained measurements when compared to a third untrained group serving as a passive control. These findings fail to support the idea that adaptive working memory training in healthy young adults enhances working memory capacity in non-trained tasks, fluid intelligence, or other measures of cognitive abilities.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Blueprint for Neuroscience Research (T90DA022759/R90DA023427)United States. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (government contract no. NBCHC070105)United States. Dept. of Defense (National Defense Science and Engineering Fellowship)Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Sheldon Razin (1959) Fellowship

Working memory capacity modulates habituation rate: Evidence from a cross-modal auditory distraction paradigm

Habituation of the orienting response is a pivotal part of selective attention, and previous research has related working memory capacity (WMC) to attention control. Against this background, the purpose of this study was to investigate whether individual differences in WMC contribute to habituation rate. The participants categorized visual targets across six blocks of trials. Each target was preceded either by a standard sound or, on rare trials, by a deviant. The magnitude of the deviation effect (i.e., prolonged response time when the deviant was presented) was relatively large in the beginning but attenuated toward the end. There was no relationship between WMC and the deviation effect at the beginning, but there was at the end, and greater WMC was associated with greater habituation. These results indicate that high memory ability increases habituation rate, and they support theories proposing a role for cognitive control in habituation and in some forms of auditory distraction

Sub-Saharan Africa's Mothers, Newborns, and Children: Where and Why Do They Die?

In the first article in a series on maternal, newborn, and child health in sub-Saharan Africa, Joy Lawn and colleagues outline where and why deaths among mothers and children occur and what known interventions can be employed to prevent these deaths

Characterization of the cytokine storm reflects hyperinflammatory endothelial dysfunction in COVID-19

Background: Physicians treating patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) increasingly believe that the hyperinflammatory acute stage of COVID-19 results in a cytokine storm. The circulating biomarkers seen across the spectrum of COVID-19 have not been characterized compared with healthy controls, but such analyses are likely to yield insights into the pursuit of interventions that adequately reduce the burden of these cytokine storms. Objective: To identify and characterize the host inflammatory response to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection, we assessed levels of proteins related to immune responses and cardiovascular disease in patients stratified as mild, moderate, and severe versus matched healthy controls. Methods: Blood samples from adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19 were analyzed using high-throughput and ultrasensitive proteomic platforms and compared with age- and sex-matched healthy controls to provide insights into differential regulation of 185 markers. Results: Results indicate a dominant hyperinflammatory milieu in the circulation and vascular endothelial damage markers within patients with COVID-19, and strong biomarker association with patient response as measured by Ordinal Scale. As patients progress, we observe statistically significant dysregulation of IFN-γ, IL-1RA, IL-6, IL-10, IL-19, monocyte chemoattractant protein (MCP)-1, MCP-2, MCP-3, CXCL9, CXCL10, CXCL5, ENRAGE, and poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase 1. Furthermore, in a limited series of patients who were sampled frequently, confirming reliability and reproducibility of our assays, we demonstrate that intervention with baricitinib attenuates these circulating biomarkers associated with the cytokine storm. Conclusions: These wide-ranging circulating biomarkers show an association with increased disease severity and may help stratify patients and selection of therapeutic options. They also provide insights into mechanisms of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pathogenesis and the host response

Modelling UK house prices with structural breaks and conditional variance analysis

This paper differs from previous research by examining the existence of structural breaks in the UK regional house prices as well as in the prices of the different property types (flats, terraced, detached and semi-detached houses) in the UK as a whole, motivated by the uncertainty in the UK housing market and various financial events that may lead to structural changes within the housing market. Our paper enhances the conventional unit root tests by allowing for structural breaks, while including structural break tests strengthens our analysis. Our empirical results support the existence of structural breaks in the mean equation in seven out of thirteen regions of the UK as well as in three out of four property types, and in the variance equation in six regions and three property types. In addition, using a multivariate GARCH approach we examine both the behaviour of variances and covariances of the house price returns over time. Our results have significant implications for appropriate economic policy selection and investment management