Characterizing Long Term Rainfall Data for Estimating Climate Risk in Semi-arid Zimbabwe

There is still a strong disconnect between the parameters and scale of information that farmers prefer and those of the seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs). There is a need to augment SCFs as they are currently presented; to make them more useful for farm decision making. The objective of this study was to use simple statistical methods of analysis to characterise long term rainfall for estimating climate risk in semi-arid Zimbabwe. This study reveals the importance of accessing long-term daily rainfall records to enable “weather-within-climate” analyses that can be tailored to the needs of farmers. The most critical point is to describe the climate in terms of events of direct relevance to farming rather than simple standard measures. Agronomically, the important rainfall events relevant to farmers in rainfed agriculture include the start, end and length of the rainy season, risks of dry spells as well as the distribution of rainfall amounts through the year. There are difficult risks in El Nino compared to Ordinary and La Nina seasons in terms of frequency and length of dry spells, number of rain days, rainfall onset and cessation dates and total rainfall amount. The chance of a dry-spell being broken is also considerably lower in El Nino years, compared to La Nina and Ordinary years. Packaging SCF with historic climate data as well as bringing in the shorter range forecasts, together with the experience of the season as it develops is a way in which value could be added to climate information dissemination. Technologies that enhance water use efficiency could also be one of the major areas of research to be integrated into the semi-arid farmers’ existing strategies to cope with climate variability and ultimately change

Three Dimensional Electrical Impedance Tomography

The electrical resistivity of mammalian tissues varies widely and is correlated with physiological function. Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) can be used to probe such variations in vivo, and offers a non-invasive means of imaging the internal conductivity distribution of the human body. But the computational complexity of EIT has severe practical limitations, and previous work has been restricted to considering image reconstruction as an essentially two-dimensional problem. This simplification can limit significantly the imaging capabilities of EIT, as the electric currents used to determine the conductivity variations will not in general be confined to a two-dimensional plane. A few studies have attempted three-dimensional EIT image reconstruction, but have not yet succeeded in generating images of a quality suitable for clinical applications. Here we report the development of a three-dimensional EIT system with greatly improved imaging capabilities, which combines our 64-electrode data-collection apparatus with customized matrix inversion techniques. Our results demonstrate the practical potential of EIT for clinical applications, such as lung or brain imaging and diagnostic screening

Influenza pandemic: perception of risk and individual precautions in a general population. Cross sectional study

BACKGROUND: An influenza pandemic may have considerable impact on health and societal functioning. The aim of this study was to explore people's reflections on the consequences of a pandemic. METHODS: Cross-sectional web-based survey of 1,168 Norwegians aged 16–82 years. The main outcome measures were answers to questions about a potential pandemic ("serious influenza epidemic"): statements about personal precautions including stockpiling Tamiflu(®), the perceived number of fatalities, the perceived effects of Tamiflu(®), the sources of information about influenza and trust in public information. RESULTS: While 80% of the respondents stated that they would be "careful about personal hygiene", only a few would stay away from work (2%), or move to an isolated place (4%). While 27% of respondents were uncertain about the number of fatalities during an influenza pandemic, 48% thought it would be lower than the estimate of Norwegian health authorities (0.05%–1%) and only 3% higher. At least half of the respondents thought that Tamiflu(® )might reduce the mortality risk, but less than 1% had personally purchased the drug. The great majority had received their information from the mass media, and only 9% directly from health authorities. Still the majority (65%) trusted information from the authorities, and only 9% reported overt distrust. CONCLUSION: In Norway, considerable proportions of people seem to consider the mortality risk during a pandemic less than health authorities do. Most people seem to be prepared to take some, but not especially disruptive, precautions

Vascular grading of angiogenesis: prognostic significance in breast cancer

The study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of angiogenesis by vascular grading of primary breast tumours, and to evaluate the prognostic impact of adding the vascular grade to the Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI). The investigation included 836 patients. The median follow-up time was 11 years and 4 months. The microvessels were immunohistochemically stained by antibodies against CD34. Angiogenesis was graded semiquantitatively by subjective scoring into three groups according to the expected number of microvessels in the most vascular tumour area. The vascular grading between observers was moderately reproduced (κ = 0.59). Vascular grade was significantly associated with axillary node involvement, tumour size, malignancy grade, oestrogen receptor status and histological type. In univariate analyses vascular grade significantly predicted recurrence free survival and overall survival for all patients (P< 0.0001), node-negative patients (P< 0.0001) and node-positive patients (P< 0.0001). Cox multivariate regression analysis showed that vascular grading contributed with independent prognostic value in all patients (P< 0.0001). A prognostic index including the vascular grade had clinical impact for 24% of the patients, who had a shift in prognostic group, as compared to NPI, and implied a better prognostic dissemination. We concluded that the angiogenesis determined by vascular grading has independent prognostic value of clinical relevance for patients with breast cancer. © 2000 Cancer Research Campaig

The relationship between the systemic inflammatory response, tumour proliferative activity, T-lymphocytic and macrophage infiltration, microvessel density and survival in patients with primary operable breast cancer

The significance of the inter-relationship between tumour and host local/systemic inflammatory responses in primary operable invasive breast cancer is limited. The inter-relationship between the systemic inflammatory response (pre-operative white cell count, C-reactive protein and albumin concentrations), standard clinicopathological factors, tumour T-lymphocytic (CD4+ and CD8+) and macrophage (CD68+) infiltration, proliferative (Ki-67) index and microvessel density (CD34+) was examined using immunohistochemistry and slide-counting techniques, and their prognostic values were examined in 168 patients with potentially curative resection of early-stage invasive breast cancer. Increased tumour grade and proliferative activity were associated with greater tumour T-lymphocyte (P&lt;0.05) and macrophage (P&lt;0.05) infiltration and microvessel density (P&lt;0.01). The median follow-up of survivors was 72 months. During this period, 31 patients died; 18 died of their cancer. On univariate analysis, increased lymph-node involvement (P&lt;0.01), negative hormonal receptor (P&lt;0.10), lower albumin concentrations (P&lt;0.01), increased tumour proliferation (P&lt;0.05), increased tumour microvessel density (P&lt;0.05), the extent of locoregional control (P&lt;0.0001) and limited systemic treatment (Pless than or equal to0.01) were associated with cancer-specific survival. On multivariate analysis of these significant covariates, albumin (HR 4.77, 95% CI 1.35–16.85, P=0.015), locoregional treatment (HR 3.64, 95% CI 1.04–12.72, P=0.043) and systemic treatment (HR 2.29, 95% CI 1.23–4.27, P=0.009) were significant independent predictors of cancer-specific survival. Among tumour-based inflammatory factors, only tumour microvessel density (P&lt;0.05) was independently associated with poorer cancer-specific survival. The host inflammatory responses are closely associated with poor tumour differentiation, proliferation and malignant disease progression in breast cancer