Stormiest winter on record for Ireland and UK

Meteorological agencies of Ireland and the UK have confirmed that winter (December to February) 2013-14 (W2013/14) set records for precipitation totals and the occurrence of extreme wind speeds1,2,3. Less clear is whether storminess (characterised as the frequency and intensity of cyclones) during W2013/14 was equally unprecedented. We assess multidecadal variations in storminess by considering frequency and intensity together and find that W2013/14 was indeed exceptional. Given the potential societal impacts there is clearly a need to better understand the processes driving extreme cyclonic activity in the North Atlantic (NA)

Reconstruction of Lamb weather type series back to the eighteenth century

The Lamb weather type series is a subjective catalogue of daily atmospheric patterns and flow directions over the British Isles, covering the period 1861–1996. Based on synoptic maps, meteorologists have empirically classified surface pressure patterns over this area, which is a key area for the progression of Atlantic storm tracks towards Europe. We apply this classification to a set of daily pressure series from a few stations from western Europe, in order to reconstruct and to extend this daily weather type series back to 1781. We describe a statistical framework which provides, for each day, the weather types consistent enough with the observed pressure pattern, and their respective probability. Overall, this technique can correctly reconstruct almost 75% of the Lamb daily types, when simplified to the seven main weather types. The weather type series are described and compared to the original series for the winter season only. Since the low frequency variability of synoptic conditions is directly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), we derive from the weather type series an NAO index for winter. An interesting feature is a larger multidecadal variability during the nineteenth century than during the twentieth century

The Immune Cell Composition in Barrett's Metaplastic Tissue Resembles That in Normal Duodenal Tissue

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Barrett's esophagus (BE) is characterized by the transition of squamous epithelium into columnar epithelium with intestinal metaplasia. The increased number and types of immune cells in BE have been indicated to be due to a Th2-type inflammatory process. We tested the alternative hypothesis that the abundance of T-cells in BE is caused by a homing mechanism that is found in the duodenum. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Biopsies from BE and duodenal tissue from 30 BE patients and duodenal tissue from 18 controls were characterized by immmunohistochemistry for the presence of T-cells and eosinophils(eos). Ex vivo expanded T-cells were further phenotyped by multicolor analysis using flowcytometry. RESULTS: The high percentage of CD4(+)-T cells (69±3% (mean±SEM/n = 17, by flowcytometry)), measured by flowcytometry and immunohistochemistry, and the presence of non-activated eosinophils found in BE by immunohistochemical staining, were not different from that found in duodenal tissue. Expanded lymphocytes from these tissues had a similar phenotype, characterized by a comparable but low percentage of αE(CD103) positive CD4(+)cells (44±5% in BE, 43±4% in duodenum of BE and 34±7% in duodenum of controls) and a similar percentage of granzyme-B(+)CD8(+) cells(44±5% in BE, 33±6% in duodenum of BE and 36±7% in duodenum of controls). In addition, a similar percentage of α4β7(+) T-lymphocytes (63±5% in BE, 58±5% in duodenum of BE and 62±8% in duodenum of controls) was found. Finally, mRNA expression of the ligand for α4β7, MAdCAM-1, was also similar in BE and duodenal tissue. No evidence for a Th2-response was found as almost no IL-4(+)-T-cells were seen. CONCLUSION: The immune cell composition (lymphocytes and eosinophils) and expression of intestinal adhesion molecule MAdCAM-1 is similar in BE and duodenum. This supports the hypothesis that homing of lymphocytes to BE tissue is mainly caused by intestinal homing signals rather than to an active inflammatory response

The calcareous brown alga Padina pavonica in southern Britain: population change and tenacity over 300 years

Understanding long-term persistence and variability in species populations can help to predict future survival, growth and distribution; however, sustained observations are exceedingly rare. We examine and interpret a remarkable record of the calcareous brown alga Padina pavonica (Phaeophyceae) at its northern limit on the south coast of England (50°N, 1–3°W) from 1680 to 2014, which is probably the longest compilation and review of any marine algal species. Over this period, which extends from the middle of the Little Ice Age to the present, there has been considerable variability in temperature and storminess. We identified a significant number of site extinctions in the second half of the nineteenth century, which coincided with cooler conditions and stormier weather. To interpret thesechanges, we measured recruitment, growth and production of tetraspores at sheltered and exposed sites in 2012–2014, years which had low and high spring temperatures. Potential spore production was greater at the sheltered site due to a longer growing period and survival of larger fronds. Delayed growth in the cooler spring resulted in smaller fronds and lower potential production of tetraspores by early summer. Yet in the warmer year, rapid initial growth caused higher sensitivity to damage and dislodgement by summer storms, which also limited potential spore production. Antagonistic responses to multiple stressors and disturbances make future predictions of survival and distribution difficult. Fronds of Padina pavonica are sensitive to both temperature and physical disturbances, yet vegetative perennation appears to have enabled population persistence and explained the longevity of remaining populations

Variations in the Difference between Mean Sea Level measured either side of Cape Hatteras and Their Relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation

We consider the extent to which the difference in mean sea level (MSL) measured on the North American Atlantic coast either side of Cape Hatteras varies as a consequence of dynamical changes in the ocean caused by fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). From analysis of tide gauge data, we know that changes in MSL-difference and NAO index are correlated on decadal to century timescales enabling a scale factor of MSL-difference change per unit change in NAO index to be estimated. Changes in trend in the NAO index have been small during the past few centuries (when measured using windows of order 60–120 years). Therefore, if the same scale factor applies through this period of time, the corresponding changes in trend in MSL-difference for the past few centuries should also have been small. It is suggested thereby that the sea level records for recent centuries obtained from salt marshes (adjusted for long-term vertical land movements) should have essentially the same NAO-driven trends south and north of Cape Hatteras, only differing due to contributions from other processes such as changes in the Meridional Overturning Circulation or ‘geophysical fingerprints’. The salt marsh data evidently support this interpretation within their uncertainties for the past few centuries, and perhaps even for the past millennium. Recommendations are made on how greater insight might be obtained by acquiring more measurements and by improved modelling of the sea level response to wind along the shelf

The Effect of Interpersonal Psychotherapy and other Psychodynamic Therapies versus ‘Treatment as Usual’ in Patients with Major Depressive Disorder

Major depressive disorder afflicts an estimated 17% of individuals during their lifetimes at tremendous suffering and costs. Interpersonal psychotherapy and other psychodynamic therapies may be effective interventions for major depressive disorder, but the effects have only had limited assessment in systematic reviews.Cochrane systematic review methodology with meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis of randomized trials comparing the effect of psychodynamic therapies versus ‘treatment as usual’ for major depressive disorder. To be included the participants had to be older than 17 years with a primary diagnosis of major depressive disorder. Altogether, we included six trials randomizing a total of 648 participants. Five trials assessed ‘interpersonal psychotherapy’ and only one trial assessed ‘psychodynamic psychotherapy’. All six trials had high risk of bias. Meta-analysis on all six trials showed that the psychodynamic interventions significantly reduced depressive symptoms on the 17-item Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (mean difference −3.12 (95% confidence interval −4.39 to −1.86;P<0.00001), no heterogeneity) compared with ‘treatment as usual’. Trial sequential analysis confirmed this result.We did not find convincing evidence supporting or refuting the effect of interpersonal psychotherapy or psychodynamic therapy compared with ‘treatment as usual’ for patients with major depressive disorder. The potential beneficial effect seems small and effects on major outcomes are unknown. Randomized trials with low risk of systematic errors and low risk of random errors are needed

Climate warming disrupts mast seeding and its fitness benefits in European beech

© 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. Many plants benefit from synchronous year-to-year variation in seed production, called masting. Masting benefits plants because it increases the efficiency of pollination and satiates predators, which reduces seed loss. Here, using a 39-year-long dataset, we show that climate warming over recent decades has increased seed production of European beech but decreased the year-to-year variability of seed production and the reproductive synchrony among individuals. Consequently, the benefit that the plants gained from masting has declined. While climate warming was associated with increased reproductive effort, we demonstrate that less effective pollination and greater losses of seeds to predators offset any benefits to the plants. This shows that an apparently simple benefit of climate warming unravels because of complex ecological interactions. Our results indicate that in masting systems, the main beneficiaries of climate-driven increases in seed production are seed predators, not plants

Models with two or more public goods

RESEARCH PAPER NUMBER 896, ISSN 0819-2642, ISBN 0 7340 2552