Relevant microclimate for determining the development rate of malaria mosquitoes and possible implications of climate change

Background The relationship between mosquito development and temperature is one of the keys to understanding the current and future dynamics and distribution of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. Many process-based models use mean air temperature to estimate larval development times, and hence adult vector densities and/or malaria risk. Methods Water temperatures in three different-sized water pools, as well as the adjacent air temperature in lowland and highland sites in western Kenya were monitored. Both air and water temperatures were fed into a widely-applied temperature-dependent development model for Anopheles gambiae immatures, and subsequently their impact on predicted vector abundance was assessed. Results Mean water temperature in typical mosquito breeding sites was 4-6°C higher than the mean temperature of the adjacent air, resulting in larval development rates, and hence population growth rates, that are much higher than predicted based on air temperature. On the other hand, due to the non-linearities in the relationship between temperature and larval development rate, together with a marginal buffering in the increase in water temperature compared with air temperature, the relative increases in larval development rates predicted due to climate change are substantially less. Conclusions Existing models will tend to underestimate mosquito population growth under current conditions, and may overestimate relative increases in population growth under future climate change. These results highlight the need for better integration of biological and environmental information at the scale relevant to mosquito biology

Reproductive Phase Locking of Mosquito Populations in Response to Rainfall Frequency

The frequency of moderate to heavy rainfall events is projected to change in response to global warming. Here we show that these hydrologic changes may have a profound effect on mosquito population dynamics and rates of mosquito-borne disease transmission. We develop a simple model, which treats the mosquito reproductive cycle as a phase oscillator that responds to rainfall frequency forcing. This model reproduces observed mosquito population dynamics and indicates that mosquito-borne disease transmission can be sensitive to rainfall frequency. These findings indicate that changes to the hydrologic cycle, in particular the frequency of moderate to heavy rainfall events, could have a profound effect on the transmission rates of some mosquito-borne diseases

Model-Derived Dispersal Pathways from Multiple Source Populations Explain Variability of Invertebrate Larval Supply

Background: Predicting the spatial and temporal patterns of marine larval dispersal and supply is a challenging task due to the small size of the larvae and the variability of oceanographic processes. Addressing this problem requires the use of novel approaches capable of capturing the inherent variability in the mechanisms involved. Methodology/Principal Findings: In this study we test whether dispersal and connectivity patterns generated from a biophysical model of larval dispersal of the crab Carcinus maenas, along the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, can predict the highly variable daily pattern of wind-driven larval supply to an estuary observed during the peak reproductive season (March–June) in 2006 and 2007. Cross-correlations between observed and predicted supply were significant (p,0.05) and strong, ranging from 0.34 to 0.81 at time lags of 26 to+5 d. Importantly, the model correctly predicted observed cross-shelf distributions (Pearson r = 0.82, p,0.001, and r = 0.79, p,0.01, in 2006 and 2007) and indicated that all supply events were comprised of larvae that had been retained within the inner shelf; larvae transported to the outer shelf and beyond never recruited. Estimated average dispersal distances ranged from 57 to 198 km and were only marginally affected by mortality. Conclusions/Significance: The high degree of predicted demographic connectivity over relatively large geographic scales is consistent with the lack of genetic structuring in C. maenas along the Iberian Peninsula. These findings indicate that the dynamic nature of larval dispersal can be captured by mechanistic biophysical models, which can be used to provid

Successful Determination of Larval Dispersal Distances and Subsequent Settlement for Long-Lived Pelagic Larvae

Despite its importance, we still have a poor understanding of the level of connectivity between marine populations in most geographical locations. Taking advantage of the natural features of the southeast coast of New Zealand's North Island, we deployed a series of settlement stations and conducted plankton tows to capture recent settlers and planktonic larvae of the common intertidal gastropod Austrolittorina cincta (6–8 week larval period). Satellite image analysis and ground truthing surveys revealed the absence of suitable intertidal rocky shore habitat for A. cincta over a 100 km stretch of coastline between Kapiti Island to the south and Wanganui to the north. Fifteen settlement stations (3 replicates×5 sites), which were used to mimic intertidal habitat suitable for A. cincta, were deployed for two months around and north of Kapiti Island (at 0.5, 1, 5, 15, 50 km). In addition, we also conducted plankton tows at each settlement station when the stations were first deployed to collect A. cincta larvae in the water column. On collection, all newly settled gastropods and larvae in the plankton samples were individually isolated, and a species-specific microsatellite marker was used to positively identify A. cincta individuals. Most of the positively identified A. cincta settlers and larvae were collected at the first three sampling stations (<5 km). However, low numbers of A. cincta settlers and larvae were also recorded at the two more distant locations (15 and 50 km). Dispersal curves modeled from our data suggested that <1% of gastropod larvae would travel more than 100 km. While our data show that most larvae are retained close to their natal populations (<5 km), a small proportion of larvae are able to travel much larger geographic distances. Our estimates of larval dispersal and subsequent settlement are one of only a few for marine species with a long-lived larva

Rapidly Measuring the Speed of Unconscious Learning: Amnesics Learn Quickly and Happy People Slowly

BACKGROUND We introduce a method for quickly determining the rate of implicit learning. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS The task involves making a binary prediction for a probabilistic sequence over 10 minutes; from this it is possible to determine the influence of events of a different number of trials in the past on the current decision. This profile directly reflects the learning rate parameter of a large class of learning algorithms including the delta and Rescorla-Wagner rules. To illustrate the use of the method, we compare a person with amnesia with normal controls and we compare people with induced happy and sad moods. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Learning on the task is likely both associative and implicit. We argue theoretically and demonstrate empirically that both amnesia and also transient negative moods can be associated with an especially large learning rate: People with amnesia can learn quickly and happy people slowl

Changes in the total leukocyte and platelet counts in Papuan and non Papuan adults from northeast Papua infected with acute Plasmodium vivax or uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There are limited data on the evolution of the leukocyte and platelet counts in malaria patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In a clinical trial of chloroquine vs. chloroquine plus doxycycline vs. doxycycline alone against <it>Plasmodium vivax </it>(n = 64) or <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>(n = 98) malaria, the total white cell (WCC) and platelet (PLT) counts were measured on Days 0, 3, 7 and 28 in 57 indigenous Papuans with life long malaria exposure and 105 non Papuan immigrants from other parts of Indonesia with limited malaria exposure.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mean Day 0 WCC (n = 152) was 6.492 (range 2.1–13.4) × 10⁹/L and was significantly lower in the Papuans compared to the non Papuans: 5.77 × 10⁹/L vs. 6.86 × 10⁹/L, difference = -1.09 [(95% CI -0.42 to -1.79 × 10⁹/L), P = 0.0018]. 14 (9.2%) and 9 (5.9%) patients had leukopaenia (<4.0 × 10⁹/L) and leukocytosis (>10.0 × 10⁹/L), respectively. By Day 28, the mean WCC increased significantly (P = 0.0003) from 6.37 to 7.47 × 10⁹/L (73 paired values) and was similar between the two groups. Ethnicity was the only WCC explanatory factor and only on Day 0.</p> <p>The mean Day 0 platelet count (n = 151) was 113.0 (range 8.0–313.0) × 10⁹/L and rose significantly to 186.308 × 10⁹/L by Day 28 (P < 0.0001). There was a corresponding fall in patient proportions with thrombocytopaenia (<150 × 10⁹/L): 119/151 (78.81%) vs. 16/73 (21.92%, P < 0.00001). Papuan and non Papuan mean platelet counts were similar at all time points. Only malaria species on Day 0 was a significant platelet count explanatory factor. The mean D0 platelet counts were significantly lower (P = 0.025) in vivax (102.022 × 10⁹/L) vs. falciparum (122.125 × 10⁹/L) patients.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Changes in leukocytes and platelets were consistent with other malaria studies. The Papuan non Papuan difference in the mean Day 0 WCC was small but might be related to the difference in malaria exposure.</p

The Things You Do:Internal Models of Others' Expected Behaviour Guide Action Observation

Predictions allow humans to manage uncertainties within social interactions. Here, we investigate how explicit and implicit person models-how different people behave in different situations-shape these predictions. In a novel action identification task, participants judged whether actors interacted with or withdrew from objects. In two experiments, we manipulated, unbeknownst to participants, the two actors action likelihoods across situations, such that one actor typically interacted with one object and withdrew from the other, while the other actor showed the opposite behaviour. In Experiment 2, participants additionally received explicit information about the two individuals that either matched or mismatched their actual behaviours. The data revealed direct but dissociable effects of both kinds of person information on action identification. Implicit action likelihoods affected response times, speeding up the identification of typical relative to atypical actions, irrespective of the explicit knowledge about the individual's behaviour. Explicit person knowledge, in contrast, affected error rates, causing participants to respond according to expectations instead of observed behaviour, even when they were aware that the explicit information might not be valid. Together, the data show that internal models of others' behaviour are routinely re-activated during action observation. They provide first evidence of a person-specific social anticipation system, which predicts forthcoming actions from both explicit information and an individuals' prior behaviour in a situation. These data link action observation to recent models of predictive coding in the non-social domain where similar dissociations between implicit effects on stimulus identification and explicit behavioural wagers have been reported

Habitat and Scale Shape the Demographic Fate of the Keystone Sea Urchin Paracentrotus lividus in Mediterranean Macrophyte Communities

Demographic processes exert different degrees of control as individuals grow, and in species that span several habitats and spatial scales, this can influence our ability to predict their population at a particular life-history stage given the previous life stage. In particular, when keystone species are involved, this relative coupling between demographic stages can have significant implications for the functioning of ecosystems. We examined benthic and pelagic abundances of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus in order to: 1) understand the main life-history bottlenecks by observing the degree of coupling between demographic stages; and 2) explore the processes driving these linkages. P. lividus is the dominant invertebrate herbivore in the Mediterranean Sea, and has been repeatedly observed to overgraze shallow beds of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica and rocky macroalgal communities. We used a hierarchical sampling design at different spatial scales (100 s, 10 s and <1 km) and habitats (seagrass and rocky macroalgae) to describe the spatial patterns in the abundance of different demographic stages (larvae, settlers, recruits and adults). Our results indicate that large-scale factors (potentially currents, nutrients, temperature, etc.) determine larval availability and settlement in the pelagic stages of urchin life history. In rocky macroalgal habitats, benthic processes (like predation) acting at large or medium scales drive adult abundances. In contrast, adult numbers in seagrass meadows are most likely influenced by factors like local migration (from adjoining rocky habitats) functioning at much smaller scales. The complexity of spatial and habitat-dependent processes shaping urchin populations demands a multiplicity of approaches when addressing habitat conservation actions, yet such actions are currently mostly aimed at managing predation processes and fish numbers. We argue that a more holistic ecosystem management also needs to incorporate the landscape and habitat-quality level processes (eutrophication, fragmentation, etc.) that together regulate the populations of this keystone herbivore

The influence of mosquito resting behaviour and associated microclimate for malaria risk

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The majority of the mosquito and parasite life-history traits that combine to determine malaria transmission intensity are temperature sensitive. In most cases, the process-based models used to estimate malaria risk and inform control and prevention strategies utilize measures of mean outdoor temperature. Evidence suggests, however, that certain malaria vectors can spend large parts of their adult life resting indoors.</p> <p>Presentation of hypothesis</p> <p>If significant proportions of mosquitoes are resting indoors and indoor conditions differ markedly from ambient conditions, simple use of outdoor temperatures will not provide reliable estimates of malaria transmission intensity. To date, few studies have quantified the differential effects of indoor <it>vs </it>outdoor temperatures explicitly, reflecting a lack of proper understanding of mosquito resting behaviour and associated microclimate.</p> <p>Testing the hypothesis</p> <p>Published records from 8 village sites in East Africa revealed temperatures to be warmer indoors than outdoors and to generally show less daily variation. Exploring the effects of these temperatures on malaria parasite development rate suggested indoor-resting mosquitoes could transmit malaria between 0.3 and 22.5 days earlier than outdoor-resting mosquitoes. These differences translate to increases in transmission risk ranging from 5 to approaching 3,000%, relative to predictions based on outdoor temperatures. The pattern appears robust for low- and highland areas, with differences increasing with altitude.</p> <p>Implications of the hypothesis</p> <p>Differences in indoor <it>vs </it>outdoor environments lead to large differences in the limits and the intensity of malaria transmission. This finding highlights a need to better understand mosquito resting behaviour and the associated microclimate, and to broaden assessments of transmission ecology and risk to consider the potentially important role of endophily.</p