Application of the PISA design model to monopiles embedded in layered soils

The PISA design model is a procedure for the analysis of monopile foundations for offshore wind turbine applications. This design model has been previously calibrated for homogeneous soils; this paper extends the modelling approach to the analysis of monopiles installed at sites where the soil profile is layered. The paper describes a computational study on monopiles embedded in layered soil configurations comprising selected combinations of soft and stiff clay and sand at a range of relative densities. The study comprises (a) analyses of monopile behaviour using detailed three-dimensional (3D) finite-element analysis, and (b) calculations employing the PISA design model. Results from the 3D analyses are used to explore the various influences that soil layering has on the performance of the monopile. The fidelity of the PISA design model is assessed by comparisons with data obtained from equivalent 3D finite-element analyses, demonstrating a good agreement in most cases. This comparative study demonstrates that the PISA design model can be applied successfully to layered soil configurations, except in certain cases involving combinations of very soft clay and very dense sand. </jats:p

PISA design methods for offshore wind turbine monopiles

Abstract This paper provides an overview of the PISA design model recently developed for laterally loaded offshore wind turbine monopiles through a major European joint-industry academic research project, the PISA Project. The focus was on large diameter, relatively rigid piles, with low length to diameter (L/D) ratios, embedded in clay soils of different strength characteristics, sand soils of different densities and in layered soils combining clays and sands. The resulting design model introduces new procedures for site specific calibration of soil reaction curves that can be applied within a one-dimensional (1D), Winkler-type, computational model. This paper summarises the results and key conclusions from PISA, including design methods for (a) stiff glacial clay till (Cowden till), (b) brittle stiff plastic clay (London clay), (c) soft clay (Bothkennar clay), (d) sand of varying densities (Dunkirk), and, (e) layered profiles (combining soils from (a) to (d)). The results indicate that the homogeneous soil reaction curves applied appropriately for layered profiles in the 1D PISA design model provide a very good fit to the three-dimensional finite element (3D FE) calculations, particularly for profiles relevant to current European offshore wind farm sites. Only a small number of cases, involving soft clay, very dense sand and L/D = 2 monopiles, would appear to require more detailed and bespoke analysis.</jats:p

PISA design model for monopiles for offshore wind turbines: Application to a marine sand

This paper describes a one-dimensional (1D) computational model for the analysis and design of laterally loaded monopile foundations for offshore wind turbine applications. The model represents the monopile as an embedded beam and specially formulated functions, referred to as soil reaction curves, are employed to represent the various components of soil reaction that are assumed to act on the pile. This design model was an outcome of a recently completed joint industry research project – known as PISA – on the development of new procedures for the design of monopile foundations for offshore wind applications. The overall framework of the model, and an application to a stiff glacial clay till soil, is described in a companion paper by Byrne and co-workers; the current paper describes an alternative formulation that has been developed for soil reaction curves that are applicable to monopiles installed at offshore homogeneous sand sites, for drained loading. The 1D model is calibrated using data from a set of three-dimensional finite-element analyses, conducted over a calibration space comprising pile geometries, loading configurations and soil relative densities that span typical design values. The performance of the model is demonstrated by the analysis of example design cases. The current form of the model is applicable to homogeneous soil and monotonic loading, although extensions to soil layering and cyclic loading are possible. </jats:p

Ground characterisation for PISA pile testing and analysis

This paper is the first of a set of linked publications on the PISA Joint Industry Research Project, which was concerned with the development of improved design methods for monopile foundations in offshore wind applications. PISA involved large-scale pile tests in overconsolidated glacial till at Cowden, north-east England, and in dense, normally consolidated marine sand at Dunkirk, northern France. The paper presents the characterisation of the two sites, which was crucial to the design of the field experiments and advanced numerical modelling of the pile–soil interactions. The studies described, which had to be completed at an early stage of the PISA project, added new laboratory and field campaigns to historic investigations at both sites. They enabled an accurate description of soil behaviour from small strains to ultimate states to be derived, allowing analyses to be undertaken that captured both the serviceability and limit state behaviour of the test monopiles

The effect of graphite and carbon black ratios on conductive ink performance

Conductive inks based on graphite and carbon black are used in a host of applications including energy storage, energy harvesting, electrochemical sensors and printed heaters. This requires accurate control of electrical properties tailored to the application; ink formulation is a fundamental element of this. Data on how formulation relates to properties have tended to apply to only single types of conductor at any time, with data on mixed types of carbon only empirical thus far. Therefore, screen printable carbon inks with differing graphite, carbon black and vinyl polymer content were formulated and printed to establish the effect on rheology, deposition and conductivity. The study found that at a higher total carbon loading ink of 29.4% by mass, optimal conductivity (0.029 Ω cm) was achieved at a graphite to carbon black ratio of 2.6 to 1. For a lower total carbon loading (21.7 mass %), this ratio was reduced to 1.8 to 1. Formulation affected viscosity and hence ink transfer and also surface roughness due to retention of features from the screen printing mesh and the inherent roughness of the carbon components, as well as the ability of features to be reproduced consistently

Agricultural policies exacerbate honeybee pollination service supply-demand mismatches across Europe

Declines in insect pollinators across Europe have raised concerns about the supply of pollination services to agriculture. Simultaneously, EU agricultural and biofuel policies have encouraged substantial growth in the cultivated area of insect pollinated crops across the continent. Using data from 41 European countries, this study demonstrates that the recommended number of honeybees required to provide crop pollination across Europe has risen 4.9 times as fast as honeybee stocks between 2005 and 2010. Consequently, honeybee stocks were insufficient to supply >90% of demands in 22 countries studied. These findings raise concerns about the capacity of many countries to cope with major losses of wild pollinators and highlight numerous critical gaps in current understanding of pollination service supplies and demands, pointing to a pressing need for further research into this issue

Early clinical and laboratory risk factors of intensive care unit requirement during 2004–2008 dengue epidemics in Singapore: a matched case–control study

Background: Dengue infection can result in severe clinical manifestations requiring intensive care. Effective triage is critical for early clinical management to reduce morbidity and mortality. However, there is limited knowledge on early risk factors of intensive care unit (ICU) requirement. This study aims to identify early clinical and laboratory risk factors of ICU requirement at first presentation in hospital and 24 hours prior to ICU requirement. Method: A retrospective 1:4 matched case–control study was performed with 27 dengue patients who required ICU, and 108 dengue patients who did not require ICU from year 2004–2008, matched by year of dengue presentation. Univariate and multivariate conditional logistic regression were performed. Optimal predictive models were generated with statistically significant risk factors identified using stepwise forward and backward elimination method. Results: ICU dengue patients were significantly older (P=0.003) and had diabetes (P=0.031), compared with non-ICU dengue patients. There were seven deaths among ICU patients at median seven days post fever. At first presentation, the WHO 2009 classification of dengue severity was significantly associated (P<0.001) with ICU, but not the WHO 1997 classification. Early clinical risk factors at presentation associated with ICU requirement were hematocrit change ≥20% concurrent with platelet <50 K [95% confidence-interval (CI)=2.46-30.53], hypoproteinemia (95% CI=1.09-19.74), hypotension (95% CI=1.83-31.79) and severe organ involvement (95% CI=3.30-331). Early laboratory risk factors at presentation were neutrophil proportion (95% CI=1.04-1.17), serum urea (95% CI=1.02-1.56) and alanine aminotransferase level (95% CI=1.001-1.06). This predictive model has sensitivity and specificity up to 88%. Early laboratory risk factors at 24 hours prior to ICU were lymphocyte (95% CI=1.03-1.38) and monocyte proportions (95% CI=1.02-1.78), pulse rate (95% CI=1.002-1.14) and blood pressure (95% CI=0.92-0.996). This predictive model has sensitivity and specificity up to 88.9% and 78%, respectively. Conclusions: This is the first matched case–control study, to our best knowledge, that identified early clinical and laboratory risk factors of ICU requirement during hospitalization. These factors suggested differential pathophysiological background of dengue patients as early as first presentation prior to ICU requirement, which may reflect the pathogenesis of dengue severity. These risk models may facilitate clinicians in triage of patients, after validating in larger independent studies.Published versio

Lithic technological responses to Late Pleistocene glacial cycling at Pinnacle Point Site 5-6, South Africa

There are multiple hypotheses for human responses to glacial cycling in the Late Pleistocene, including changes in population size, interconnectedness, and mobility. Lithic technological analysis informs us of human responses to environmental change because lithic assemblage characteristics are a reflection of raw material transport, reduction, and discard behaviors that depend on hunter-gatherer social and economic decisions. Pinnacle Point Site 5-6 (PP5-6), Western Cape, South Africa is an ideal locality for examining the influence of glacial cycling on early modern human behaviors because it preserves a long sequence spanning marine isotope stages (MIS) 5, 4, and 3 and is associated with robust records of paleoenvironmental change. The analysis presented here addresses the question, what, if any, lithic assemblage traits at PP5-6 represent changing behavioral responses to the MIS 5-4-3 interglacial-glacial cycle? It statistically evaluates changes in 93 traits with no a priori assumptions about which traits may significantly associate with MIS. In contrast to other studies that claim that there is little relationship between broad-scale patterns of climate change and lithic technology, we identified the following characteristics that are associated with MIS 4: increased use of quartz, increased evidence for outcrop sources of quartzite and silcrete, increased evidence for earlier stages of reduction in silcrete, evidence for increased flaking efficiency in all raw material types, and changes in tool types and function for silcrete. Based on these results, we suggest that foragers responded to MIS 4 glacial environmental conditions at PP5-6 with increased population or group sizes, 'place provisioning', longer and/or more intense site occupations, and decreased residential mobility. Several other traits, including silcrete frequency, do not exhibit an association with MIS. Backed pieces, once they appear in the PP5-6 record during MIS 4, persist through MIS 3. Changing paleoenvironments explain some, but not all temporal technological variability at PP5-6.Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada; NORAM; American-Scandinavian Foundation; Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia [SFRH/BPD/73598/2010]; IGERT [DGE 0801634]; Hyde Family Foundations; Institute of Human Origins; National Science Foundation [BCS-9912465, BCS-0130713, BCS-0524087, BCS-1138073]; John Templeton Foundation to the Institute of Human Origins at Arizona State Universit

Species identification by experts and non-experts: comparing images from field guides

Accurate species identification is fundamental when recording ecological data. However, the ability to correctly identify organisms visually is rarely questioned. We investigated how experts and non-experts compared in the identification of bumblebees, a group of insects of considerable conservation concern. Experts and non-experts were asked whether two concurrent bumblebee images depicted the same or two different species. Overall accuracy was below 60% and comparable for experts and non-experts. However, experts were more consistent in their answers when the same images were repeated, and more cautious in committing to a definitive answer. Our findings demonstrate the difficulty of correctly identifying bumblebees using images from field guides. Such error rates need to be accounted for when interpreting species data, whether or not they have been collected by experts. We suggest that investigation of how experts and non-experts make observations should be incorporated into study design, and could be used to improve training in species identification