Inductive Reasoning Games as Influenza Vaccination Models: Mean Field Analysis

We define and analyze an inductive reasoning game of voluntary yearly vaccination in order to establish whether or not a population of individuals acting in their own self-interest would be able to prevent influenza epidemics. We find that epidemics are rarely prevented. We also find that severe epidemics may occur without the introduction of pandemic strains. We further address the situation where market incentives are introduced to help ameliorating epidemics. Surprisingly, we find that vaccinating families exacerbates epidemics. However, a public health program requesting prepayment of vaccinations may significantly ameliorate influenza epidemics.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figure

The Role of Social Circle Perceptions in “False Consensus” about Population Statistics: Evidence from a National Flu Survey

Purpose. “False consensus” refers to individuals with (v. without) an experience judging that experience as more (v. less) prevalent in the population. We examined the role of people’s perceptions of their social circles (family, friends, and acquaintances) in shaping their population estimates, false consensus patterns, and vaccination intentions. Methods. In a national online flu survey, 351 participants indicated their personal vaccination and flu experiences, assessed the percentage of individuals with those experiences in their social circles and the population, and reported their vaccination intentions. Results. Participants’ population estimates of vaccination coverage and flu prevalence were associated with their perceptions of their social circles’ experiences, independent of their own experiences. Participants reporting less social circle “homophily” (or fewer social contacts sharing their experience) showed less false consensus and even “false uniqueness.” Vaccination intentions were greater among nonvaccinators reporting greater social circle vaccine coverage. Discussion. Social circle perceptions play a role in population estimates and, among individuals who do not vaccinate, vaccination intentions. We discuss implications for the literature on false consensus, false uniqueness, and social norms interventions

Association between IGF-1 levels ranges and all-cause mortality: A meta-analysis

The association between IGF-1 levels and mortality in humans is complex with low levels being associated with both low and high mortality. The present meta-analysis investigates this complex relationship between IGF-1 and all-cause mortality in prospective cohort studies. A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed/MEDLINE, Scopus, and Cochrane Library up to September 2019. Published studies were eligible for the meta-analysis if they had a prospective cohort design, a hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for two or more categories of IGF-1 and were conducted among adults. A random-effects model with a restricted maximum likelihood heterogeneity variance estimator was used to find combined HRs for all-cause mortality. Nineteen studies involving 30,876 participants were included. Meta-analysis of the 19 eligible studies showed that with respect to the low IGF-1 category, higher IGF-1 was not associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.68–1.05). Dose–response analysis revealed a U-shaped relation between IGF-1 and mortality HR. Pooled results comparing low vs. middle IGF-1 showed a significant increase of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.14–1.57), as well as comparing high vs. middle IGF-1 categories (HR = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.06–1.44). Finally, we provide data on the association between IGF-1 levels and the intake of proteins, carbohydrates, certain vitamins/minerals, and specific foods. Both high and low levels of IGF-1 increase mortality risk, with a specific 120–160 ng/ml range being associated with the lowest mortality. These findings can explain the apparent controversy related to the association between IGF-1 levels and mortality

Transiting extrasolar planetary candidates in the Galactic bulge

More than 200 extrasolar planets have been discovered around relatively nearby stars, primarily through the Doppler line shifts owing to the reflex motions of their host stars, and more recently through transits of some planets across the face of the host stars. The detection of planets with the shortest known periods, 1.2 to 2.5 days, has mainly resulted from transit surveys which have generally targeted stars more massive than 0.75 M_sun. Here we report the results from a planetary transit search performed in a rich stellar field towards the Galactic bulge. We discovered 16 candidates with orbital periods between 0.4 and 4.2 days, five of which orbit stars of 0.44 to 0.75 M_sun. In two cases, radial-velocity measurements support the planetary nature of the companions. Five candidates have orbital periods below 1.0 day, constituting a new class of ultra-short-period planets (USPPs), which occur only around stars of less than 0.88 M_sun. This indicates that those orbiting very close to more luminous stars might be evaporatively destroyed, or that jovian planets around lower-mass stars might migrate to smaller radii.Comment: To appear in October 5, 2006 issue of Natur

Health Newscasts for Increasing Influenza Vaccination Coverage: An Inductive Reasoning Game Approach

Both pandemic and seasonal influenza are receiving more attention from mass media than ever before. Topics such as epidemic severity and vaccination are changing the way in which we perceive the utility of disease prevention. Voluntary influenza vaccination has been recently modeled using inductive reasoning games. It has thus been found that severe epidemics may occur because individuals do not vaccinate and, instead, attempt to benefit from the immunity of their peers. Such epidemics could be prevented by voluntary vaccination if incentives were offered. However, a key assumption has been that individuals make vaccination decisions based on whether there was an epidemic each influenza season; no other epidemiological information is available to them. In this work, we relax this assumption and investigate the consequences of making more informed vaccination decisions while no incentives are offered. We obtain three major results. First, individuals will not cooperate enough to constantly prevent influenza epidemics through voluntary vaccination no matter how much they learned about influenza epidemiology. Second, broadcasting epidemiological information richer than whether an epidemic occurred may stabilize the vaccination coverage and suppress severe influenza epidemics. Third, the stable vaccination coverage follows the trend of the perceived benefit of vaccination. However, increasing the amount of epidemiological information released to the public may either increase or decrease the perceived benefit of vaccination. We discuss three scenarios where individuals know, in addition to whether there was an epidemic, (i) the incidence, (ii) the vaccination coverage and (iii) both the incidence and the vaccination coverage, every influenza season. We show that broadcasting both the incidence and the vaccination coverage could yield either better or worse vaccination coverage than broadcasting each piece of information on its own

Measuring for change : A multi-centre pre-post trial of an air quality feedback intervention to promote smoke-free homes

Second-hand smoke exposure in the home is a serious cause of ill-health for children. Behaviour change interventions have been developed to encourage parents to keep homes smoke-free. This study evaluates a novel air quality feedback intervention using remote air quality monitoring with SMS and email messaging to promote smoke-free homes among families from deprived areas. This paper presents a pre-post study of this intervention. Using internet connected monitors developed with the Dylos DC1700, daily SMS and weekly email feedback provided for 16 days to participants recruited in four European countries. Participants were recruited based on their stage of change, in order to target those most able to achieve smoke-free homes. The primary outcome measure was median change in mean fine particulate matter (PM) concentration between baseline and follow-up periods, while secondary outcome measures included change in time over the World Health Organisation (WHO) guideline limit for PM exposure over 24 h (25 µg/m) in those periods and the number of homes where PM concentrations reduced. Telephone interviews were conducted with participants in Scotland post-intervention to explore intervention experience and perceived effectiveness. Of 86 homes that completed the intervention study, 57 (66%) experienced pre-post reductions in measured PM. The median reduction experienced was 4.1 µg/m (a reduction of 19% from baseline, p = 0.008). Eight homes where concentrations were higher than the WHO guideline limit at baseline fell below that level at follow-up. In follow-up interviews, participants expressed positive views on the usefulness of air quality feedback. Household air quality monitoring with SMS and email feedback can lead to behaviour change and consequent reductions in SHS in homes, but within the context of our study few homes became totally smoke-free

Rapid Emergence of Free-Riding Behavior in New Pediatric Immunization Programs

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models have formalized how free-rider effects can threaten the stability of high vaccine coverage levels under established voluntary vaccination programs. However, little research has addressed the question of when free-riding begins to develop when a new vaccine is first introduced in a population. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we combine a game theoretical model of vaccinating behavior with an age-structured compartmental model to analyze rational vaccinating behavior in the first years of a universal immunization program, where a new vaccine is free to all children of a specified age. The model captures how successive birth cohorts face different epidemiological landscapes that have been shaped by the vaccinating decisions of previous birth cohorts, resulting in a strategic interaction between individuals in different birth cohorts. The model predicts a Nash equilibrium coverage level of for the first few birth cohorts under the new program. However, free-riding behavior emerges very quickly, with the Nash equilibrium vaccine coverage dropping significantly within 2-5 years after program initiation. Subsequently, a rich set of coupled dynamics between infection prevalence and vaccinating behaviors is possible, ranging from relatively stable (but reduced) coverage in later birth cohorts to wide fluctuations in vaccine coverage from one birth cohort to the next. Individual tolerance for vaccine risk also starts out at relatively high levels before dropping significantly within a few years. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results suggest that even relatively new immunization programs can be vulnerable to drops in vaccine coverage caused by vaccine scares and exacerbated by herd immunity effects, necessitating vigilance from the start

Intercomparison of shortwave radiative transfer schemes in global aerosol modeling: results from the AeroCom Radiative Transfer Experiment

In this study we examine the performance of 31 global model radiative transfer schemes in cloud-free conditions with prescribed gaseous absorbers and no aerosols (Rayleigh atmosphere), with prescribed scattering-only aerosols, and with more absorbing aerosols. Results are compared to benchmark results from high-resolution, multi-angular line-by-line radiation models. For purely scattering aerosols, model bias relative to the line-by-line models in the top-of-the atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing ranges from roughly −10 to 20%, with over- and underestimates of radiative cooling at lower and higher solar zenith angle, respectively. Inter-model diversity (relative standard deviation) increases from ~10 to 15% as solar zenith angle decreases. Inter-model diversity in atmospheric and surface forcing decreases with increased aerosol absorption, indicating that the treatment of multiple-scattering is more variable than aerosol absorption in the models considered. Aerosol radiative forcing results from multi-stream models are generally in better agreement with the line-by-line results than the simpler two-stream schemes. Considering radiative fluxes, model performance is generally the same or slightly better than results from previous radiation scheme intercomparisons. However, the inter-model diversity in aerosol radiative forcing remains large, primarily as a result of the treatment of multiple-scattering. Results indicate that global models that estimate aerosol radiative forcing with two-stream radiation schemes may be subject to persistent biases introduced by these schemes, particularly for regional aerosol forcing