Prisoner's Dilemma cellular automata revisited: evolution of cooperation under environmental pressure

We propose an extension of the evolutionary Prisoner's Dilemma cellular automata, introduced by Nowak and May \cite{nm92}, in which the pressure of the environment is taken into account. This is implemented by requiring that individuals need to collect a minimum score $U_{min}$, representing indispensable resources (nutrients, energy, money, etc.) to prosper in this environment. So the agents, instead of evolving just by adopting the behaviour of the most successful neighbour (who got $U^{msn}$), also take into account if $U^{msn}$ is above or below the threshold $U_{min}$. If $U^{msn}<U_{min}$ an individual has a probability of adopting the opposite behaviour from the one used by its most successful neighbour. This modification allows the evolution of cooperation for payoffs for which defection was the rule (as it happens, for example, when the sucker's payoff is much worse than the punishment for mutual defection). We also analyse a more sophisticated version of this model in which the selective rule is supplemented with a "win-stay, lose-shift" criterion. The cluster structure is analyzed and, for this more complex version we found power-law scaling for a restricted region in the parameter space.Comment: 15 pages, 8 figures; added figures and revised tex

Climate change reduces resilience to fire in subalpine rainforests

Climate change is affecting the distribution of species and the functioning of ecosystems. For species that are slow growing and poorly dispersed, climate change can force a lag between the distributions of species and the geographic distributions of their climatic envelopes, exposing species to the risk of extinction. Climate also governs the resilience of species and ecosystems to disturbance, such as wildfire. Here we use species distribution modelling and palaeoecology to assess and test the impact of vegetation–climate disequilibrium on the resilience of an endangered fire‐sensitive rainforest community to fires. First, we modelled the probability of occurrence of Athrotaxis spp. and Nothofagus gunnii rainforest in Tasmania (hereon “montane rainforest”) as a function of climate. We then analysed three pollen and charcoal records spanning the last 7,500 cal year BP from within both high (n = 1) and low (n = 2) probability of occurrence areas. Our study indicates that climatic change between 3,000 and 4,000 cal year BP induced a disequilibrium between montane rainforests and climate that drove a loss of resilience of these communities. Current and future climate change are likely to shift the geographic distribution of the climatic envelopes of this plant community further, suggesting that current high‐resilience locations will face a reduction in resilience. Coupled with the forecast of increasing fire activity in southern temperate regions, this heralds a significant threat to this and other slow growing, poorly dispersed and fire sensitive forest systems that are common in the southern mid to high latitudes

Macrofossils and pollen representing forests of the pre-Taupo volcanic eruption (c. 1850 yr BP) era at Pureora and Benneydale, central North Island, New Zealand.

Micro- and macrofossil data from the remains of forests overwhelmed and buried at Pureora and Benneydale during the Taupo eruption (c. 1850 conventional radiocarbon yr BP) were compared. Classification of relative abundance data separated the techniques, rather than the locations, because the two primary clusters comprised pollen and litter/wood. This indicates that the pollen:litter/wood within-site comparisons (Pureora and Benneydale are 20 km apart) are not reliable. Plant macrofossils represented mainly local vegetation, while pollen assemblages represented a combination of local and regional vegetation. However, using ranked abundance and presence/absence data, both macrofossils and pollen at Pureora and Benneydale indicated conifer/broadleaved forest, of similar forest type and species composition at each site. This suggests that the forests destroyed by the eruption were typical of mid-altitude west Taupo forests, and that either data set (pollen or macrofossils) would have been adequate for regional forest interpretation. The representation of c. 1850 yr BP pollen from the known buried forest taxa was generally consistent with trends determined by modern comparisons between pollen and their source vegetation, but with a few exceptions. A pollen profile from between the Mamaku Tephra (c. 7250 yr BP) and the Taupo Ignimbrite indicated that the Benneydale forest had been markedly different in species dominance compared with the forest that was destroyed during the Taupo eruption. These differences probably reflect changes in drainage, and improvements in climate and/or soil fertility over the middle Holocene

A Final Upper Palaeolithic site at Nea Farm,Somerley, Hampshire (England) and some reflections on the occupation of Britain.

The functional and technological analysis of prehistoric artefact

Alginate inhibits iron absorption from ferrous gluconate in a randomized controlled trial and reduces iron uptake into Caco-2 cells

Previous in vitro results indicated that alginate beads might be a useful vehicle for food iron fortification. A human study was undertaken to test the hypothesis that alginate enhances iron absorption. A randomised, single blinded, cross-over trial was carried out in which iron absorption was measured from serum iron appearance after a test meal. Overnight-fasted volunteers (n=15) were given a test meal of 200g cola-flavoured jelly plus 21 mg iron as ferrous gluconate, either in alginate beads mixed into the jelly or in a capsule. Iron absorption was lower from the alginate beads than from ferrous gluconate (8.5% and 12.6% respectively, p=0.003). Sub-group B (n=9) consumed the test meals together with 600 mg calcium to determine whether alginate modified the inhibitory effect of calcium. Calcium reduced iron absorption from ferrous gluconate by 51%, from 11.5% to 5.6% (p=0.014), and from alginate beads by 37%, from 8.3% to 5.2% (p=0.009). In vitro studies using Caco-2 cells were designed to explore the reasons for the difference between the previous in vitro findings and the human study; confirmed the inhibitory effect of alginate. Beads similar to those used in the human study were subjected to simulated gastrointestinal digestion, with and without cola jelly, and the digestate applied to Caco-2 cells. Both alginate and cola jelly significantly reduced iron uptake into the cells, by 34% (p=0.009) and 35% (p=0.003) respectively. The combination of cola jelly and calcium produced a very low ferritin response, 16.5% (p<0.001) of that observed with ferrous gluconate alone. The results of these studies demonstrate that alginate beads are not a useful delivery system for soluble salts of iron for the purpose of food fortification

Monitoring the South African National Antiretroviral Treatment Programme, 2003 - 2007: The IeDEA Southern Africa collaboration

Objectives. To introduce the combined South African cohortsof the International epidemiologic Databases to EvaluateAIDS Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaboration as reflectingthe South African national antiretroviral treatment (ART)programme; to characterise patients accessing these services;and to describe changes in services and patients from 2003 to2007.Design and setting. Multi-cohort study of 11 ART programmesin Gauteng, Western Cape, Free State and KwaZulu-Natal.Subjects. Adults and children

How old is the Tasmanian cultural landscape? a test of landscape openness using quantitative land-cover reconstructions

Aim: To test competing hypotheses about the timing and extent of Holocene landscape opening using pollen-based quantitative land-cover estimates. Location: Dove Lake, Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, Australia. Methods: Fossil pollen data were incorporated into pollen dispersal models and corrected for differences in pollen productivity among key plant taxa. Mechanistic models (REVEALS-Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites) employing different models for pollen dispersal (Gaussian plume and Lagrangian stochastic models) were evaluated and applied in the Southern Hemisphere for the first time. Results: Validation of the REVEALS model with vegetation cover data suggests an overall better performance of the Lagrangian stochastic model. Regional land-cover estimates for forest and non-forest plant taxa show persistent landscape openness throughout the Holocene (average landscape openness similar to 50%). Gymnoschoenus sphaerocephalus, an indicator of moorland vegetation, shows higher values during the early Holocene (11.7-9 ka) and declines slightly through the mid-Holocene (9-4.5 ka) during a phase of partial landscape afforestation. Rain forest cover reduced (from similar to 40% to similar to 20%) during the period between 4.2-3.5 ka. Main conclusions: Pollen percentages severely under-represent landscape openness in western Tasmania and this bias has fostered an over-estimation of Holocene forest cover from pollen data. Treeless vegetation dominated Holocene landscapes of the Dove Lake area, allowing us to reject models of landscape evolution that invoke late-Holocene replacement of a rain forest-dominated landscape by moorland. Instead, we confirm a model of Late Pleistocene inheritance of open vegetation. Rapid forest decline occurred after c.4 ka, likely in response to regional moisture decline.Australian Research Council; AINSE AWARD [ALNGRA16024]; AINSE PGRA scholarship [12039]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

A new Later Upper Palaeolithic open-air site with articulated horse bone in the Colne Valley, Berkshire

The end of the last Ice Age in Britain (c. 11500 BP) created major disruption to the biosphere. Open habitats were succeeded by more wooded landscapes, and changes occurred to the fauna following the abrupt disappearance of typical glacial herd species, such as reindeer and horse (Conneller & Higham 2015). Understanding the impact of these changes on humans and how quickly they were able to adapt may soon become clearer, due to recent discoveries in the Colne Valley on the western edge of Greater London, north of the River Thames. An exceptionally well-preserved open-air site was discovered in 2014 as part of a wider project of archaeological investigation and excavation carried out by Wessex Archaeology (2015), on behalf of CEMEX UK. The site, at Kingsmead Quarry in Horton, is unusual because it has good organic preservation and, in addition to worked flint artefacts, it has yielded groups of articulated horse bone. The extreme rarity of such sites of this period in Britain makes this discovery especially significant and re-emphasises the potential importance of the Colne Valley (Lacaille 1963; Lewis 2011; Morgi et al. 2011)

Acceptability of Condom Promotion and Distribution Among 10-19 Year-Old Adolescents in Mpwapwa and Mbeya Rural Districts, Tanzania.

\ud The HIV/AIDS pandemic remains a leading challenge for global health. Although condoms are acknowledged for their key role on preventing HIV transmission, low and inappropriate use of condoms persists in Tanzania and elsewhere in Africa. This study assesses factors affecting acceptability of condom promotion and distribution among adolescents in Mpwapwa and Mbeya rural districts of Tanzania. Data were collected in 2011 as part of a larger cross-sectional survey on condom use among 10-19 year-olds in Mpwapwa and Mbeya rural districts of Tanzania using a structured questionnaire. Associations between acceptability of condom promotion and distribution and each of the explanatory variables were tested using Chi Square. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to examine independent predictors of the acceptability of condom promotion and distribution using STATA (11) statistical software at 5% significance level. Mean age of the 1,327 adolescent participants (50.5% being males) was 13.5 years (SD = 1.4). Acceptance of condom promotion and distribution was found among 37% (35% in Mpwapwa and 39% in Mbeya rural) of the adolescents. Being sexually active and aged 15-19 was the strongest predictor of the acceptability of condom promotion and distribution (OR = 7.78, 95% CI 4.65-12.99). Others were; not agreeing that a condom is effective in preventing transmissions of STIs including HIV (OR = 0.34, 95% CI 0.20-0.56), being a resident of Mbeya rural district (OR = 1.67, 95% CI 1.28-2.19), feeling comfortable being seen by parents/guardians holding/buying condoms (OR = 2.20, 95% CI 1.40-3.46) and living with a guardian (OR = 1.48, 95% CI 1.08-2.04). Acceptability of condom promotion and distribution among adolescents in Mpwapwa and Mbeya rural is low. Effect of sexual activity on the acceptability of condom promotion and distribution is age-dependent and was the strongest. Feeling comfortable being seen by parents/guardians buying or holding condoms, perceived ability of condoms to offer protection against HIV/AIDS infections, district of residence and living arrangements also offered significant predictive effect. Knowledge of these factors is vital in designing successful and sustainable condom promotion and distribution programs in Tanzania.\u